CheeseheadInQC

Unless there was an injury, it appears as if he did the standard signing a contract that started in 2018, so I think he would have two years left. He would, of course, be rule 5 eligible.

A lot of the guys I would include are probably a bit further down the prospect list. Felix Valerio: Between his youth, past performance and underlying numbers, I have little doubt Valerio will bounce back offensively. He needs to prove, however, that he can handle second base defensively, especially in a post-shift baseball world. Victor Castaneda: The results have been OK, the peripherals middling. I think he gets moved to the pen this year and must show his stuff plays up there. The year five or six guys: There are a lot of plus athletes who are likely to start in high or low A on Damuelle’s list. Joe Gray, Eduardo Garcia, Micah Bello, Eduarqui Fernandez … Time is starting to run low. Cam Devanney: This is based on circumstance. After getting passed up in the Rule 5 draft, Devanney needs to show his 2022 isn’t just a case of success because he was an older prospect repeating AA. I think he makes the bigs at some point this year, but because of his age, he needs to back up his 2022 success more than most of last year’s breakouts.

I hope it isn’t self-indulgent, but I am going to split my reply in two: the guys included and then the guys I might have. Quero: As others have pointed out, the Feliciano comp is flawed. With Feliciano the question was will he develop enough to stick at catcher. With Quero it seems to be will he develop enough to win a gold glove. I can understand the rule 5 reasoning, but given that catchers with offensive upside and big league ready defense is one of the few categories of hitters who routinely get picked, I think he would have to have a disastrous 2023 not to be added. The added pressure will come in later seasons by the early starting of the option clock. Mendez: He spent his 18 year old season entirely in A ball. Chourio might have spoiled us, but that is pretty rare. Does he have to get the ball in the air more? Sure. But he will be given time. Honestly you could include just about any prospect at that level given that reasoning, including Avina, whose K rate is unsustainable. Disagree with the Gasser reasoning (if people realize Ruiz isn’t in the system now, they know why. The forgetfulness won’t strike for a couple of years.) I don’t disagree with Turang, though. He needs to show the long extra base hit drought was the fluke, not the power surge at the end of the season.

Back to Quero, it is tough to find a good comp for him. From 2009 through the present, 12 catchers saw a decent chunk of time in High-A during their age 19 season. Two were not really considered among their organization's top prospects (Santiago Chavez and Francisco Pena), three are currently among their organization's top prospects (Francisco Alvarez, Ivan Herrera and Quero), four either switched positions or were derailed by defense (Feliciano, Jesus Montero, Wil Myers and Tommy Joseph), and two were bat-first prospects who developed enough to stick behind the plate (Gary Sanchez, Keibert Ruiz). Christian Betancourt might be the best comp among the group defensively, but he had maturity questions that you never really hear about Quero. Catchers with plus defense and intangibles have a way of sticking around. It is why Martin Maldonado is still going strong, having played 100 games in each non-pandemic season since leaving the Brewers, despite struggling at times to stay above the Mendoza line and posting a career OPS that I believe is on the wrong side of .650. It is why former Brewers prospect Max McDowell was invited to the Yankees alternate site during 2020 and recently signed as a minor league free agent despite a fairly poor offensive season at AA last year. If he develops at all offensively, and the scouting reports on his defense and intangibles are accurate, it is tough to see him not having a decent length big league career.

In a roundabout way, I got a wedding present from Brian Shouse. My wife’s maid of honor’s mom taught his son or daughter while he was with the Brewers. Knowing I was a Brewers fan, she asked him if he had any souvenirs that she could give me. I think he cleaned out the leftover giveaways because her parents gave us everything from a Brewers blanket to a set of nesting dolls of the infielders. I always cheered a little harder for Shouse after that.

True, I just used him as the biggest name in that class. Substitute Mendez, Guilarte, Areinamo, Barrios, Castillo or Aquino if you wish.

After next year it gets a bit better at least (Quero is eligible next year, but Chourio isn’t until two after that).

Of the post-Lucroy failed catching prospects, Feliciano is the only one who doesn’t fall into one of two categories: guys whose bats failed to progress or guys no one expected to stick at catcher. The former happens at every position. The latter is a bit of hubris from an organization proud of its ability to mold catchers defensively. Feliciano was really the first one who wasn’t looked at as an extreme long shot to stick at catcher who didn’t develop defensively. The case against having Quero higher I guess might be that because catchers have so much to focus on, their bats might develop less often. On the other hand, if the reports on Quero’s defense and intangibles are accurate, even a little improvement offensively probably puts him in the Maldonado level. Regardless, however, what happened with Feliciano has no bearing on my opinion on Quero, both because he is an outlier and because Feliciano’s problem isn’t an issue for Quero.

Given the amount of time they have been in the system, I wonder if Vassalotti, Garabitos or Morales start in AA.

I’d kind of split the difference. Sign Myers or someone similar. If Mitchell and Frelick are playing well, he platoons with Tellez and Winker. If not, and Wiemer isn’t ready, he is a decent backup plan. I would start the two of them to start the season, though. I think there is a decent chance that Turang starts the season in AAA with Toro getting first crack at third. Assuming he is playing well, though, he would be my first call up from AAA.

Since everyone is tossing out their pick for next Suter, I will say Adam Seminaris.

It is so nice over the last few years that the Brewers have gotten to the point where discussing DSL pitchers doesn't feel like a waste of time. Possibly none of them are listed here depending on where Briceno and Wagoner start out, but for a second year in a row I am going to find the pitching results from Carolina fascinating. Between rounds 5 and 11 last year the Brewers drafted a D-II pitcher, a four-year JUCO pitcher, a pitcher who missed a lot of time with injuries and a pitcher who was academically ineligible in his draft year. Toss in the former DSL guys who were called up toward the end of last season (Vallecillo, Herrera and Gonzalez); if healthy, a guy who would have been called up last year (Aquino) and a guy who was in 2021 (Brailin Rodriguez); and a potential holdover or two from last season and you have an interesting but potentially erratic collection, not even considering the highest upside arm in the system. If three of those guys could emerge the way Rodriguez, Cruz and Cornielle did last season along with the hoped-for progress from Misiorowski, it would really help balance a hitter-heavy system.

The case for Myers is that he is a righty who hits lefties well and could be a decent platoon bat at a relatively low price point.

Maybe I am wrong, but isn’t range factor one of the defensive stats that they used to say only stabilized after a couple of seasons’ worth of data?

This seems like a lot of angst over someone who currently projects as the new Pablo Reyes.

And sometimes guys with those tools improve. Especially on the pitching side. Heck, Cam Robinson was protected this year after not last year because he made those improvements. On the hitting side, Manny Pina was never a star but provided value to the Brewers. He was initially a PTBNL in order to make sure he wasn’t taken in the rule 5. If you see major league traits in a guy, that is a non-negligible value. No one is claiming he is an elite prospect, but it sounds like he might have a better chance than most minor league relievers.

I am thinking about doing something about very under the radar prospects who have something intriguing about them closer to spring training. Raabe is on the list for his combination of contact and line drive rates.

Didn't one of the articles mention they had been trying to get him from the Padres last year before the Hader trade took place?

Don’t get me wrong, I really like this trade, but I think the surprising nature of the trade is down to a couple of things: 1. Contreras didn’t have the value that you would expect given the stats and control. The Braves never really seemed sold on him as their catcher of the future. 2. Excepting Misiorowski, Ruiz probably would have the largest range in evaluation of any of the Brewers’ top prospects (or in his case former top prospects). I wouldn’t be surprised if the median was around where he is generally ranked, but there are aspects there, especially after last season, that a team could fall in love with.

Maybe I will be wrong, and there have been some absurdly long contracts given out this year, but recent history would suggest Vasquez isn’t going to get the long term deal he is seeking. It has been almost a decade since a catcher of Vasquez’s age and caliber got more than two years. Maybe the weak catching market gets him three, but I would wager it is more likely he settles for two than gets four.

For the second year in a row Kekai Rios got picked in the minor league Rule 5 draft.

I know what you are going for, but I think Toro starting against righties to start the year can be justified as more than a service time thing, and I think it is going to happen. It seems as if with the shift going away, the Brewers are targeting lefties with lower strikeout rates but low BABIPs thinking those players could be value plays this season. Toro is in that category. Are they outsmarting themselves? Perhaps. But the reasoning seems sound enough where I have no problem with them testing it.

Am I the only one who thinks Turang starts the season in triple-A? C: TBA/Caratini 1B: Tellez/TBA Righty 2B: Urias SS: Adames 3B: Toro/Brosseau OF: Yelich/Mitchell/Frelick/Taylor DH: Winker

Frelick’s lack of power does limit his ultimate upside, but it is not like he is Juan Pierre. Unless I am mistaken his minor league extra base hit totals would have ranked fourth on the Brewers last season, and he did hit double-digit homers. I am not one of Frelick’s biggest defenders on the site (I think I was one of the few who didn’t have him in the top 2 in the last prospect poll), but if he can truly be a .300 hitter at the big league level, the power numbers he posted in the minors last year might never make him an MVP candidate, but they would be more than adequate. A .150 ISO looks a lot better stacked atop a .300 average than a .230 one.

I guess I don’t really understand this take. All trades involve some measure of hope. The Brewers are hoping that last year was an aberration and Winker reverts to his Cincinnati offensive production and that they are correct that low BABIP lefties are an undervalued asset with the shift going away. The Mariners hope Wong’s defensive advanced stats are to some degree noise and not the sign of the start of a steep decline in his former best tool. I am neither excited nor disappointed in this deal. It seems fairly even. We will see.