CheeseheadInQC

Maybe I just followed it less because it was no longer part of my job, but I don’t know that it would have mattered. Most of the teams, even the top seeds, seemed pretty anonymous or you knew about them for the wrong reasons (hello Alabama). The women’s tournament had more of the classic story lines: the national player of the year taking down the unbeaten juggernaut only to lose in the final. And yes, as a Badger fan that did give me flashbacks.

There is a chance that you can scratch Low off the list. I think he only pitched this spring. And I am OK with that. Two- way players are fun, but I doubt it is optimal for development.

I am really happy the players got a pay bump, but I hate that MLB asked for this in return. Players weren’t being hoarded. It was entirely optional for the clubs to go that high. All this does is protect owners who chose not to from being called cheap about something that only die hards notice anyway. This is emblematic of why I can’t stand Manfred & Co,’s leadership despite not hating a lot of the rule changes.

One of the Jets’ trade demands was for Gutekunst to criticize Rodgers so they get the ticked off version. This is what gets the Packers the first.

Kind of looking like the opening day lineups might look something like AAA C: Henry 1B: Singleton 2B: Monsterio SS: Devanney 3B: Toro LF: Perkins CF: Frelick RF: Wiemer DH: Bolt? AA (This is going to be a seriously deep roster) C: Quero 1B: Clarke 2B: Valerio SS: Zamora 3B: Black LF: Rodriguez CF: Chourio RF: Campbell/Campbell DH: Warren A+ C: Miller 1B: Chirinos 2B: Moore SS: Brown 3B: Garcia LF: Bello CF: Gray RF: Mendez DH: Metzinger A C: Wood 1B: Hall 2B: Guilarte SS: Barrios 3B: Areinamo LF: Perez CF: Avina RF: Fernandez DH: Adams

Would you put Figueroa in that group? I haven’t seen much of him, but the strikeouts made me question if moving to the bullpen might unlock something. I am usually a wake me up when they hit AA guy when it comes to relievers. There might be a few more interesting ones than usual just for the reasons you said about more starters than spots. Of the true relievers at the lower levels, Pena probably intrigues me the most between the way they handled him and the positive Fangraphs scouting report.

He had at least been on the big league side once, which I doubt they would have done if he was hurt. Just because of their injury histories, Henderson and Fitzpatrick are the two I am waiting on. I don’t think I have seen either yet, but I could be wrong.

Is my math wrong or, assuming that Hiura and Voit are indeed off the roster, does that mean two of Frelick, Wiemer and Turang made it?

I am beginning to think that the Brewers are higher on Walling than I thought.

My thoughts: Triple A: Gasser, Junk, and then who knows. A lot rides on if they start Small and, if he doesn’t make the 26-man roster, Miller. Both could also end up being developed as a relievers. They have a lot of other guys who could be stretched out: Boushley, Rea, Myers, Stock, Pannone, etc. Double-A: Jarvis and, assuming they aren’t in triple-A, Knarr and Seminaris, all seem likely. I really think Rodriguez starts in double-A. I thought that Cruz might’ve joined him, but the lack big league camp days that I can recall and the high-A start in the minor league game make me think he’ll start in high-A. I will guess Shook for the last spot. High-A: If enough are are healthy, I wouldn’t be surprised if they go with a six-man rotation at Wisconsin. Cruz, Cornielle, Hernandez and Smith seem likely. The other spots would be filled with a combination of Wagoner, Jimenez and Henderson, with Puello as another option. Low-A: Probably a combination of last year’s picks (Misiorowski, Rudy, Woessner, Peterson, Fitzpatrick) and international signees who either already spent time in low-A (Alexander Vallecillo, Yujanyer Herrera, Brailin Rodriguez, Arielbi Gonzalez, Miguel Segura) or would have if not for injury (Patricio Aquino). Also, for the rookie league, I would toss Corniel on the list to watch, too.

Really, unless they were advocating for Quantrill or one of the guys taken after pick 20, no one in that debate is looking good right now.

He might have fallen victim to a numbers game. Ton of pitchers competing for spots on the two A ball rosters.

That’s what happens when I post without a spreadsheet in front of me. Hopefully any injuries are short-term

I wonder if this means that they are moving Low full-time to the mound? I don’t think he has been in a batting lineup yet. I wouldn’t be opposed if they did. With two years in the system already his best path forward is probably to give his entire focus to one. Unless I am forgetting someone, I believe also brings to three the number of hitters that were likely headed for full season rosters but who haven’t shown up in the lineup yet.

Good to see Rodriguez back. And if I am tracking them correctly, that makes 5 DSL names from last season: the three big signings, Baez and Mogollon.

Fangraphs has him reaching 96, sitting 92-94 on his fastball with a “future-plus” slider

Joseph Zarr did a great job covering some names during his Undervalued, Undersold and Underhyped series, but in honor of the first minor league lineups of spring being released, I thought I would throw out my own thoughts and encourage everyone else to post who they think could be on the verge of a breakout this season. I'm doing mine in tiers, from regulars sleepers to "Hey, we're still here" Tier 1 Hitter: Gregory Barrios, SS, likely headed to Carolina Both by fielding percentage and Fangraphs' scouting report, probably the most advanced defender among the large group teenage complex league infielders last season, Barrios also boasts several other desirable traits. Last season his swinging strike rate was low and he was a balanced hitter both in terms of LD/GB/FB and in terms of using the whole field. There is only one things that prevented him from moving into the Areinamo tier where I know longer even consider him a sleeper (although others might): a lack of power. He barely managed to top .05 in ISO. If he can develop even consistent doubles power during his age 19 season, he becomes a very interesting prospect. Starter: Patricio Aquino, likely headed to Carolina Coming into last season, the Brewers had a starting pitcher coming off an age 19 season in the ACL in which he struck out a ton of hitters while posting a walk rate that, while not absurd still might be characterized as elevated. The Brewers were impressed enough to give him a late season shot at Carolina. This season the Brewers have another pitcher who, were it not for an injury that struck just as the Brewers started handing out late season promotions, likely would have fit that mold to a T. So here is my prediction: while there might be similar occasional bumps in the road with control, Aquino solidifies his place as a prospect to watch this season the same way that his predecessor, Alexander Cornielle did last year. Reliever: Justin Yeager, likely headed to Biloxi The Brewers, as most teams probably do, have a fair number of relief prospects who fall into the big time stuff, sketchy control category. And while Yeager isn't at Abner Uribe's level, he fits comfortably in the next tier. It sounds like the fastball-slider combo is legit enough to make the 12+ K/9 he posted last year repeatable. If he can make control gains this year, he could become a big part of what I hope will become a deep corps of relievers between the Brewers and triple-A in the near future so, you know, they don't have to deal legitimate prospects for bullpen filler anymore. Tier 2 Hitter: Juan Baez, SS, likely headed to ACL As I don't really get to watch many games (and in the case of DSL guys, none of us do), I rely on two things for the guys under the radar enough to not have much in the way of scouting reports: stats and organization signals. Baez's stats might not jump off the page. He wasn't even a league average hitter in the DSL. His walk rate was a touch low for the level. But he had the second lowest strikeout rate among Brewers DSL'ers with at least 100 plate appearances, so he makes good contact. He also had some premium organizational signals. He was second in plate appearances among all DSL'ers behind only top-20 prospect Luis Lara, so they gave him a ton of at-bats, especially for a low-bonus guy. He also had the most starts on either DSL team at shortstop. In a league where almost every infielder signs as a shortstop, this guy who signed as a catcher if I remember correctly was the one they most wanted to see at the most important defensive infield position. Oh, and unless I missed someone, he joined Lara and Johan Barrios as the only ones of last year's DSL'ers mentioned in the first set of spring training lineups. Starter?: Brian Fitzpatrick, likely headed to Carolina It's kind of fitting that Fitzpatrick pitched only 3.2 innings after getting drafted last season. Between Tommy John surgery, the COVID season and another injury, he pitched fewer than 50 college innings. The things that are intriguing about Fitzpatrick, though: 1. He was good last year when healthy for Rutgers. 2. He was borderline dominant during Cape Cod league stints the last two summers. 3. He is a 6-7 lefty. Really, though, Fitzpatrick is standing in here for the entire bizarre group of pitchers the Brewers picked between rounds 5 and 20. You've not only got the injury guy, but also the D-2 guy, the 5-year JUCO guy, the academically ineligible in his draft year guy and a pair of guys who broke out only after transferring. It is eclectic, high variance, and I can't wait to see how it turns out. Reliever: Jeison Pena, likely headed to Wisconsin Basically, take Yeager's write-up and make him a level or two lower and five years younger. Outside of a brief, disastrous stint at Wisconsin, Pena struck guys out everywhere he went last season. He struck out nearly 40% of the hitters he faced in the ACL and then topped 30% in Carolina. The problem was, after limiting walks pretty well in the ACL, they jumped considerably in Carolina. The good news is, he has a lot of time to work the command issues out. Reaching high-A in his age-19 season, Pena was the youngest player to pitch for the Timber Rattlers last season, and if he starts in Wisconsin this season he will almost assuredly be the youngest pitcher on the Timber Rattlers' opening day roster. The Brewers have shown a lot of confidence in him as well, not just with last season's promotions but also with having him skip the DSL and start off stateside the previous season. Tier 3 Hitters: The catching duo of Jhonnys Cabrera and Blayberg Diaz, likely headed to Carolina/ACL I've written a fair amount about these guys before, but to sum it up: The words "patient to a fault" would be an apt description of Cabrera in the early going of the 2022 ACL season. He was flirting with a .500 OBP despite having a .100 batting average. And that .100 batting average wasn't bad luck. He struck out that much. It seemed for a while like he was as likely to get hit by a pitch as to put the ball in play. Then he started to get a bit more aggressive and the loud contact started to come with it. He still struck out too much, but on the plus side, his swinging strike rate seemed more indicative of a 25% strikeout guy than a 33% one. On Diaz, he had a good walk rate, solid strikeout rate, great caught stealing percentage, popped a few home runs but couldn't buy a hit. Some of that may have been due to a line drive rate that Fangraphs lists as 8%. He had three homers but only one other extra base hit. Last season wasn't pretty, but the statistical profile suggests there may still be something there. Hitter: Zack Raabe, second base, likely headed for Wisconsin Remember everything I wrote about Barrios? Make him four years older and a second baseman instead of a shortstop and you have the conundrum facing Zack Raabe. Lots to like about the statistical profile: Lots of walks, fairly low strikeouts, low swinging strike rate, lots of line drives. The problem is, his ISO in Carolina was .056 and he has yet to hit is first pro home run. He has to find some measure of at minimum doubles power, but if he does, a lot of the other tools were there. You might think tier 3 is low for a recent top-10 round pick who didn't look lost during his first full season, but Raabe is here because he has to prove a lot fast just to get consistent playing time. He is probably looking at a stint as the sixth infielder at Biloxi with the four other non-first basemen in the group all making Fangraphs' top 39 list. Pitcher: Brailin Rodriguez, likely headed for Carolina With very little fanfare toward the end of the 2021 season Rodriguez became the first pitcher to play for a Brewers A-ball team during his age-18 season in at least 15 years. He promptly missed the next season with injury. Assuming that he is back to being healthy, here is hoping that he displays the promise that caused the Brewers to promote him in 2021 over several other older, safer options. So those are my sleepers. Who do you think is poised for a breakout season?

It will be interesting to see how the playing time is distributed in the Carolina infield. There are probably 10 or so infielders who should be in A ball. I would guess Adams gets plenty of time at first, especially if Quinton Low is pitching more.

The one matchup where I can’t root for Wisconsin. Kind of have to cheer for the alma mater.

Didn’t another player say the same thing about about Warren helping them find their swing the previous season? Was it Wiemer? And no overlap between your 20, and the 10 I was going to mention in a sleepers thread. Although I tiered it, and most of yours would be tier 1 guys. Also, I considered Middendorf and Erceg but picked a different reliever figuring someone else would mention them.

Depending on how the rosters work out, I could see Luke Adams getting some work at first given the number of infielders Carolina is likely to have deserving of playing time, especially if Low gets more time on the mound.

I guess some of it relies on what you think his power potential is. If you think last year’s 11 is the most he will hit, that is one thing, but if you think, especially in a park that suits him, he is a 15-20 home run guy. That, along with defensive improvement could make him a (hopefully) healthier AJ Pollock, and if he had stayed healthy, Pollock would have been paid.

The interesting thing about Lara is he really had two seasons in one. He started off with a great batting line but a higher (but still not high) strikeout rate and very few walks. Then it seemed like he tried to change his approach. The walks shot up, the strikeouts dropped. The loud contact (or at least results you associate with loud contact) was missing, however. The key is going to be melding the early season batted ball results with the more patient approach he showed later on.

My thoughts: 1. I was thinking of starting a forum topic on sleepers after the Minor League spring training roster is released, and you still haven’t hit any of the 10 I was going to mention. The system has a lot of guys holding at least some intrigue. 2. If it wasn’t for the sheer number of upper level relievers, I would advocate for starting Garabitos at AA. He is part of a group of arms likely to start in Wisconsin who need to move up fast because of how long they have been in the system. He held that Carolina staff together after the wave of promotions. He was insanely valuable there. 3. I am taking a wait and see approach with the DSL pair. I temper my excitement a bit with guys putting up great stats when repeating a level. That said, it sure beats the alternative.

Devanney, thanks to the COVID season, kind of breaks a couple of my usual rules for looking at prospect stats. I am usually a big “don’t read too much into stats of an over-age prospect repeating a level” guy. However with the COVID season, he was in the unenviable position of skipping two levels because that is where there was roster space. So do you really count it as repeating a level if he shouldn’t have been there to begin with? Hopefully he does well enough this year to make those prospect analysis questions moot.