CheeseheadInQC

Sanchez has averaged more than a strikeout an inning at every level he has pitched at, and Olczak has been really good this year. Truthfully they have a better track record than some of the guys the Brewers have sent in the past and about equal to someone like Barnes who broke out there

I doubt it. He's caught eight times this year and not, if I saw correctly, for a couple of months. Given the importance of the position, you'd think if there was any chance that they thought he could stick there he would have gotten more looks this year. On the other projections, I kind of wonder if Harber might not start in the AAA rotation. He hasn't spent much time in AA, but he has been good and repeated A+, so he's kind of still a year behind if he starts off again in AA. Given the aggressiveness with which they have promoted pitchers lately, I could see it.

Nice to see the strong outings the last two days at Biloxi from (all due respect to Roegner, Harber and other possibilities) the two favorites for the organization's minor league pitcher of the year. The best parts are a combined 1 walk and 0 extra base hits allowed for the pair.

Wow, I thought I remembered someone voting for Harber, but I guess not (I think I was the only one who had him higher on my listed also-rans than you did, No. 28). Ever since he got to high-A he's been consistently inconsistent, but his last five starts have been both excellent but also consistent in how he's being successful. It makes me hopeful that he has turned a corner. I hope you're right on Webb, too. I'm still high on him, but thus far he seems to be always on the verge of a breakout that never actually arrives. If it does next year, I think you're right; he'll move up fast.

It's interesting that that many players were mentioned at least on one ballot, but there are at least a few interesting players left off the list, be it Thomas Jankins (struggled skipping a level, but the Brewers kept him in the rotation even when it got overcrowded, and he's done a better job of limiting base runners lately), Reese Olson (fifth highest bonus given to a Brewers draft pick this season) or Bowden Francis (might just be me on this one, but I still have hope for him). Also, I'm predicting Pablo Abreu makes a Zack Brown-type jump into the top 10 by this time next year. I have a feeling that one of the three main Helena outfielders breaks out at Wisconsin next season, and my bet is it's him.

This recent stretch has definitely been the most consistent in Harber's career. I think his last five starts he's been at or near a strikeout per inning and two or fewer walks with a WHIP of about 1 and an ERA of less than 2.00 over that period. I think he's the best prospect not to get a vote in the recent poll. Still think he ends up being a Major League pitcher, even if it is as a middle reliever.

It will be interesting to see how the outfielders are distributed next year between Wisconsin, and the two rookie teams, with the young outfield groups in Helena and Arizona and the possibility of Rodriguez, Ernesto, Valdez and Leones all coming stateside.

With the number of guys who have to be protected pared down a bit, one thing this will do is give an idea of how the Brewers evaluate their own guys. It wouldn't even shock me if someone like Harber gets protected over bigger names like Bickford, Ponce, Williams and Kirby. It should be interesting. I'll add that I kind of hope Harber either gets protected or doesn't get selected just because I find him bizarrely compelling to follow. I can't remember ever seeing a guy shift from start to start between high strikeout, high walk and extreme pitch to contact the way he was earlier in the season.

I like the numbers... and Suter turned out to be a very solid rotation contributor pre-torn UCL. Not a criticism either way, but given your affinity for guys who know how to draw walks and the fact that you give more credence to Helena stats than some, I was shocked to not see Pablo Abreu on your list. I half expected he'd be in the top 10.

Actually arrieta has been the best. He has been really good. However Chacin sure seems like the second best. Miley could be third. Maybe Hellickson. Maybe Cahill. But it hasn't been impressive. Look at this list https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-free-agent-rankings-best-starting-pitchers-available-on-the-hot-stove-market/amp/ I looked it up a few days ago after a conversation about this at work, but I believe at that point Fangraphs WAR at least had it Mikolas, Chacin, Arrieta, Cahill, in that order.

1. Keston Hiura: Just keep hitting … 2. Corbin Burnes: Early returns in Milwaukee strong. Should be in rotation next year. 3. Corey Ray: K rate concerning, but ton of potential and this is still a big step forward. 4. Tristen Lutz: Stats much more encouraging when put in the context of what usually happens with guys right out of high school in A ball 5. Zack Brown: Might be the first time I'm not the one ranking him the highest. This is how you do a breakthrough year. 6. Brice Turing: Hitting in Arizona, but a little more extra base hit power would be nice 7. Jacob Nottingham: Struggles while focusing on defense were somewhat predictable (also why K.J. Harrison's stats aren't shocking), but confident he's a big leaguer 8. Lucas Erceg: Better after slow start. Still think there Is some Mitch Haniger-type late-bloomer potential here. 9. Mauricio Dubon: Too bad the injury cut short what had been an excellent season. 10. Trey Supak: Really settled in after rough start at AA. 11. Adrian Houser: Up-and-down this season, but still believe he becomes a valuable reliever 12. Troy Stokes Jr.: Would be four or five spots higher if he weren't likely stuck in left field. Lot of pressure on bat. 13. Marcos Diplan: Would easily be top 10 if he could cut down on the walks 14. Mario Feliciano: Recent hot streak keeps it from being completely lost season, and Brewers showed lot of faith in him with A+ assignment. 15. Payton Henry: For a catcher who'd still be in college, those stats will play. 16. Carlos Rodriguez: The hit tool seems to be there. 17. Jake Gatewood: Nice to see the power shining, but the OBP needs work 18. Pablo Abreu: Between the age and the walk rate seems the least likely of the rookie league guys to be a Helena mirage. 19. Joe Gray Jr.: Slow start but high ceiling 20. Micah Bello: Cooled off a bit, but solid AZL debut 21. Trent Grisham: Needs to start hitting 22. Quintin Torres-Costa: Still going strong in Colorado Springs 23. Aaron Ashby: Wisconsin debut reminiscent of what Burnes and Brown did there two years ago 24. Demi Orimoloye: Did just enough to stay on here 25. Zach Clark: The K rate is somewhere between concerning and absurd, but if he can ever even get it down into the low 20s, he's a top-10 guy 26. Caden Lemons 27. Cameron Roegner 28. Conor Harber 29. Braden Webb 30. Cody Ponce 31. Chad McClanahan 32. Nathan Kirby 33. Michele Vassalotti 34. Larry Ernesto 35. Bowden Francis

I guess with Gausman, you could end up coming out ahead in the deal if he pitches well to close out the season. With Anderson, Davies, Guerra, Chacin, Nelson, Peralta, Burnes and Woodruff as potential starters next season (assuming Nelson is back to at least a close approximation of his former self), Gausman could potentially be traded again after the season to restock some of the prospects lost (or one of the others could).

I had a feeling that Lopez and Phillips were going to be traded before the deadline, but not like this. I hope that Shaw is better than we all think he is going to be at second.

I had reconciled myself to the fact that one of the AA starters was likely to be dealt, but I'd kind of assumed that it would be for a starter or middle infielder. I'm not thrilled about Medeiros for a likely rental reliever, but as others have said, if the Brewers viewed him as a reliever and maybe this was actually Soria + the ability to protect QTC for Medeiros, then it might make some sense. That being said, while they have enough pitching at AA and AAA to part with one of them and possibly two, I hope they don't deal any more than one more unless it is for a guy with a few years of control.

Tough to know how much to read into it prospect-wise, but the Australians are having pretty solid debuts.

That's too bad, but he might be back in time for the playoffs and he can make up any innings up to his limit in the AFL. It is doubtful they would have inflicted Colorado Springs on him anymore this year anyway.

Kremer basically had an awful first half of 2017 when, as a guy who it sounds like had less pitching experience than your normal college arm, he almost skipped low A and got tossed into one of the more offensively skewed leagues in the minors. He was an above average pitcher there for the second half of the season and one of the best in the league so far this year. Like Bannon, the Dodgers probably should have promoted him sooner, but even with the available data he seems much more intriguing than a lot of the Diaz and filler talk would suggest, and I think that if he were in the Brewers system we'd be mentioning him as a top-10 guy. Outside of Peralta before his promotion, the only pitcher in the Brewers system who is having a season comparable to his this year is Brown. I'm with you on Burnes + Woodruff or Brown being an overpay, and I'm not sure that the Orioles wouldn't have viewed that as the type of package they would have demanded from the Brewers. I guess my larger point is, while betting on pop-up prospects can be risky, it is perhaps even more foolish to completely discount the added value from breakout seasons, which seems to be the case in much of the analysis I've seen on this trade, primarily citing preseason prospect rankings in panning the return. (Note: I do NOT include the post I'm replying to on this list, just explaining why I'm leery of some of the opinions I was seeing immediately after the trade and why I'm skeptical that the Brewers could have gotten him for as little as some people on here seem to be assuming.)

Are we sure that Kremer wouldn't be significantly higher on prospect lists if they came out today? I don't know any more than is available on the mlb.com write-up on his actual stuff, but his first two full seasons kind of remind me of Brandon Woodruff's, except with an even better K-rate (in that he was significantly better in the second half after being moved straight up to A+ in his first full season and then came back and posted very good stats relative to league at A+ until getting promoted the following year). Plus you have the fact that he has less pitching experience than the typical college draftee. There's a chance his value is closer to Brown than Supak (and this is coming from someone who has Brown as a possible top 5 prospect in the Brewers system).

I think Lutz will be an interesting case. If he can keep his hot streak going, he might be a top 100 prospect at year's end. He's put himself in position where he has a legitimate shot at finishing the year with an .800 OPS. Between the 2006 and 2016 draft classes, 36 first or second round picks out of high school have posted an .800+ OPS in A ball the year after getting drafted. Of those 33 were top 100 prospects after that season and the three others (Jesse Winker, Chance Sisco and Austin Riley) made it after the following season. Also good news if he makes that mark, other than the 2015 and 2016 guys only one player hasn't made the big leagues, and in many ways for high school picks it seems like a better indicator of future success than draft position.

I was thinking something similar except maybe a half-tier or so down the Brewers prospect list, like a Supak or Gatewood.

Lutz's early season struggles have been a drag on his numbers all year, but since the Timber Rattlers became a Brewers affiliate I believe they have had only two players in their first season after being drafted out of high school post a higher OPS than Lutz has right now - Scooter Gennett and Brett Lawrie. If he can even hold at his current rate stat levels for the rest of the season, I think it would be unfair to say his prospect status decreased this year. Also, if Clark can reduce his strikeout rate to a manageable level, he suddenly becomes a very interesting prospect. I think he's a more intriguing sleeper than he gets credit for being.

To be fair, they aren't wrong on Zagurski at AAA, at least from a numbers perspective. He's been straight-up filthy everywhere but Colorado Springs (1.06 ERA, .88 WHIP, 14.3 K/9). The only guy who can match those numbers outside of CS is Freddy Peralta. Now granted it is debatable whether that will translate to big league success given that he has often been really good in AAA in the past, but this isn't exactly random or an affront to Nick Ramirez either.

The DSL pitching staff has been a pleasant surprise this season. I don't know if it will translate prospect-wise, but for not having any hyped signings, the results so far have been excellent.

This might already be inaccurate by tomorrow given some of the roster shuffling we already know about, but as of now my money would be on Hintzen for the first member of his draft class to hit full season ball. One hit, one walk, seven strikeouts in 3 1/3 innings thus far.

Good luck to Rijo. He was one of my favorite deep sleepers heading into the season, but he kind of got lost in the shuffle with Moore and Hager getting off to absurd starts and Hiura getting a pretty quick promotion. Similar to Eric Hanhold last year, he might not be looked at as a top tier prospect, but I wouldn't be shocked if he improves enough to earn a big league shot someday.