Boomer5

Thanks! I cant say I love the trade because I have my doubts that Nottingham stays at Catcher. But it isnt a bad trade by any means and Davis, while possessing incredible power, was also a flawed player that could be injured in ST and we would get even less in return. This seems to be a win win trade as Oakland has the DH so his value is greater for them than us. I do think Stearns got taken pretty badly on the Lind trade but since then his strategy has become more clear - A ball and rookie guys with plus tools, and former prospects that have flamed out but had some tools in the past that just may figure something out at no real cost. The Diamondback trade was an A and this seems to be a solid B/B-. I will be very interested in how he handles the Luc trade since much more highly ranked prospects will be on the table. The next phase will be the player development and then the draft where I can see this board having a huge amount of interest, far more than we will have at the MLB game threads, and that says it all.

Not receiving any major league ready talent in the Davis/Lind trades has no bearing on the W/L record of the major league team in 2016 since they won't be replaced by the players received. The difference in the projections between Domingo Carter & Khris Lind is hardly large enough to constitute tanking. There is also a very real chance the replacements out produce the departed. In this day of analytics, we are kind of passed general statements like any back up/waiver guy will be good enough to replace X and Y. Id strongly suggest anyone that thinks the MLB roster was improved with all these moves study this. http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=23 The Brewers are tanking because: 1.) The strategy has worked perfectly for Chicago and Houston, not just in 2015 but for years to come 2.) It is the lowest cost way to generate a legitimate contender for a 5+ year window. 3.) The Brewers have not one but three teams ahead of them in their division that are likely to be 90 wins the next 2 years minimum. The window is perfect. 4.) The strategy/serendipity worked beautifully in Milwaukee under Dean Taylor, though I remain unconvinced he knew he was putting together some horrendous MLB rosters. Regardless of strategy, the Brewers would not have had their run of good teams recently had it not been for Dean Taylor transactioning us into the worst roster in baseball and being able to pick up Braun and Prince. All hail Jeffrey Hammonds and Jamie Wright! 5.) Not only do the Brewers have no shot at an A list FA under the current CBA, they have very little chance of retaining an A List player they produce unless that player has some warts either known or unknown. So unconventional tactics are the only strategy left. But back on point, if you look at the Brewer run producers the last few years and factor in their ages, IF the strategy was to put a quality team on the field in 2016 at a manageable cost, Davis and Luc would be untouchable baring a too good to be true trade offer, because their production to cost is 5 star. Both are rare tool guys; in raw power - fangraphs compared his all field power to only Miggy and Goldschmitt - and a legitimate 2 way All Star catcher both under 30, both cost controlled for years. I will make you a deal; I will stop using the term tanking if you folks stop acting like the MLB team is improved.

Milwaukee has to use unconventional tools to win a WS. They cant sign guys like a JHey for $190M and a Lackey for $150M in back to back years and fill what is essentially support level roles. JHey by himself is what, the top 3 contracts the Brewers have ever signed? A team like the Phillies and Cubs tanking with their revenue streams are the ones that should be targeted. Olney should be intelligent enough to know the Brewers ONLY chance to win a WS is from incredible luck or building the farm system was a large draft pool. If Olney wants to fix it, put in a hard organizational salary cap( and floor), and do away with the draft all together. Done.

That is semantics. Fangraphs has the current MLB roster at 24 WAR, third worst in the game. Only the Braves at 21 and the Phillies at 20 are worse. Luc is at 2.6 so his trade will get is very close to the worst roster in baseball. Smith is 1.6 as is Wily, two trade candidates. If all three go, you get the picture. When you trade productive major leagers with no FA issues for guys in A ball you are planning on losing games and a lot of them. To think that Stearns hasn't considered draft position when he unloads most of our productive players and replaces them with other teams cast offs seems a bit naive. Let me point out I'm very happy the Brewers are doing this. With 2-3 top drafts, they will have a super power by 2019. I get the Brewer marketing department can't say this and I even get fans can't swallow this but it's happening.

If he proves healthy, Id look for a Tulo model trade. Take back half the salary in bad contract and pick up some higher end prospects.

Here is the latest fangraphs projections of the current MLB roster. We can repackage the term tanking and call it rebuilding if that makes folks feel better.....but look at this roster closely and how it ranks vs other teams. The Brewers roster currently ranks third from the bottom and that is before the Luc, Wily, and Smith deals. It also features a .9 contribution from Arcia and Im not sure if he is projected to play at all in Milwaukee now though I haven't heard the latest plans. He sure seems ready but its a clock issue. http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=23 Back on topic, the Davis trade almost mandates the move of Braun to LF, as the Brewers current projected LF has a combined WAR of 0.5, which is incomprehensible.

LF: Braun CF: Broxton RF: Santana Thats your best two way OF from everything I can gather. I can still see a Braun trade once they find a partner and he shows he is healthy. Little reason to keep him on the team at that point. Plus with his contract off the books they can absorb some short term bad contracts in exchange for prospects like the Hill/Diaz deal. Lets just hope Stewart stays employed for another year or two. Im not sure what is wrong with Liriano but something must be for SD to flat out give up on him.

Id think Luc and Peralta or even Anderson should net us an Astros level return. Thats what I would shoot for as it may just wind up to be the best trade I can ever remember as Brewer fan.

I don't think that is a good example. If he doesn't care I guess he will never be any good with that attitude. Also why are we freaking out over Josh Hader's huge fall league performance, but if Santana does poorly it is nothing? Seems like it should go both ways. Santana made a brief ML appearance in 2014. And some more in 2015. He's got a great AAA line. Him having to prove himself at his winter ball is past. Hader on the other hand has 0 games played at AAA much less ML. He needs to show up and attempt to show some kind of learning or improvement. Can also say Hader had just 104IP vs the 123 he had the season before. His arm had innings to throw. Santana 126games 460PAs vs 147 598PAs. So it stands with reason the young man may have been tired. Hader's arm didn't have that reason. On to the subject of Tanking and was it Olney who's upset at what Milw has done to fit his idea of the team tanking. So in a perfect world with the team trying to acquire winning talent through ML player trades/signings. We should still have Gomez +9mil. Lind +8mil. Segura +3mil. Gone after a FA SP. Kept KRod +7.5mil. Fiers would still be on team. So let's see: 50mil+27 or 77mil. We'd probably have picked up a Doug Fister on a 2year deal for 18mil vs the 1/7. And now we're a 90win team and not tanking right? Obviously wouldn't have a single one of the younger players. So let's build a maybe 80win team at 85-100mil payroll. And have a minors club ranked near the bottom so to satisfy not tanking. Next year after we'd have lost Gomez, Krod, and Lind we'd put Reed/Taylor in CF. Rogers would be at 1b. Segura would be traded for Arcia to play SS. We'd sign a 3b. Still have a mediocre Staff. No depth. spend somewhere 85-100mil on payroll sell the team as a winning squad that can compete with the near 100win Central teams after not doing so the prior 2seasons. Hey we ain't tanking. Aint winning also but we keep giving the college try. Nah we don't want that. So let's change the rules now that the Cubs are 100win team of what looks like the next decade. We can't let what they did work for other franchises. We gotta stop this. Want it to be fixed? Retract to 20 Teams. Have 40man rosters vs 25man. Eliminate the bottom 10markets so 150+Million payrolls. Or, just let it be. Milwaukee won't have 35year olds getting starts. Signing 33year old+ to fill your team to me would be tanking. Playing AA players would be tanking. Giving AAA guys and under 28year olds shots at playing, isn't tanking. It's called being young and needing time for talent to lead to wins. The Brewers only course of action is to get really lucky and beat any statistical projection on most of their players or tank like they doing now to build their farm system. If Olney wants to get upset, it shouldnt be what the Brewers are doing, it should be what the Cubs did with big market payroll capability and what the Phillies are doing now.

[sarcasm]So...You're saying there's chance![/sarcasm]

The only way the Brewers can compete is through the infusion of the draft and lower level international. The Brewers don't have the ability to acquire a Harper or a Fernandez unless they started their careers here. Tanking - the term - seems to have a bad connotation but when you trade your good players for guys who can't help you this year or next and you wind up having a higher draft pick the next two years, your team tanked on purpose. Call it rebuilding if that helps you sleep better but it's tanking.

Davis is a tough guy to evaluate. Is he the .809 OPS guy without much of a platoon split for his career who fangrahs compares to Nelson Cruz and hit an amazing 20 HRs in Aug and Sep, or is he the guy who cant throw and for the first half of the season was pretty much worthless and injury prone? On the other hand, Nottingham is 50/50 to stay at catcher due to passed balls and command and his power vanished when he was traded to Oakland. But he is one of the higher rated catching prospects in the game, has a 38% cs rate, and that is rare. Stearns also should know him very well, so that is something we have to consider.

Are the Brewers targeting close to MLB ready talent for Luc? Are they eager to start the clock on a Turner? Keep the clock going on a Gallo who while I like him, does not seem like a headline guy for our lone remaining big chip? Based on what I have seen, I would think they are looking for guys drafted in 15 to headline a Luc deal. We have already seen Swanson traded, so its not unheard of. If they target HS level 14/15 guys, I would think they can pick up a bigger package of assets.

The 2014 team that went 82-80 finished the year July-Sep at 31-47 for a .352. Not an insignificant sample size. The 2015 team went 68-94 for a .420. Certainly not an insignificant sample size, either. If anything, they actually outperformed what the 2014 squad left off. CC did go for a .445 after Rons 7-18 start. Better, but since then they have traded away decent to good players (with more to go) and have replaced them on the MLB roster with worse players by most any metric I have seen available. Im not sure how that is in dispute unless there is some model I have missed. If you can show me the improvement of the 16 vs the 15 team Id like to see it. Other than Davies/Anderson vs Lohse, I don't see any obvious wins in the 15 to 16 MLB moves. This is baseball for teams like Milwaukee. They will not acquire the super elite talent unless they draft it or use their minor league chips to trade for it, and accept they will be gone when their FA time hits. When you look at the '16 roster regarding this trade, I can promise you that Davis will hit more MLB HRs than Nottingham will, no matter how much you like Nottingham and you think he will stick at C. And that is the point of a trade like this. Build for the future at the expense of the now. You cant trade to move up the draft and acquire more pool $$ but you can weaken your team so that they have a better chance of picking higher. So in basketball terms, its Davis for the two A ball guys plus some more ping pong balls to land the top pick. Its really that simple. Ditto Lind for three rookie league guys. Ditto KRod for nothing of value. Ditto buying Diaz, a guy who lit up in Rookie ball. Thats what Theo did and thats what Stearn's team did. It is what Milwaukee is doing. The difference is Milwaukee had a better system than those teams did when they started so in theory if the 16-18 drafts are what we hope, Milwaukee should have a super power on their hands and all this talk of the Kurt N's of the world magically becoming valuable assets will be something we all laugh at.

Im sure this is directed at me, so I will respond. When the team loses 94 games and trades away/is in the process of its key performers for primarily A and rookie ball talent then fills the roster with other teams 40 man cuts and possibly two rule 5 guys, it's hardly breaking new ground to suggest the team is going to be very bad. This is a board that lost its mind having one rule 5 guy deep in the bullpen due to losing depth over the course of the season but having 2 is shrewd? Davis is meh but Kurt N (im not going to bother learning to spell his name), Cecchini, Villars, Carter, Broxton are shrewd pick ups that will allow the team to be better? Or how about the team lost 94 games...but that wasn't an indication of the talent? How so? As they say, show the work.

I care, greatly. I think many misunderstand my POV on the offseason, as opposed to July. This is the MLB board and I my "negativity" is only discussing the MLB roster. I AGREE with what Stearns is doing. I WANT the Brewers to develop not just a good, but the best farm system in the game filled with 8-10 top 100 players going forward. 81 wins would be a disaster, assuming the goal is to win a championship in the next 5-7 years. The Brewers are playing Chess, not Checkers. Checkers is adding Cecchini types et al in 2016 and saying well he might be OK. Checkers is adding a Carter and saying well he could be better than Lind, etc etc etc. The reality is in this day of advanced metrics, teams dont give up cheap talented players to waivers and pennies on the dollar trades, so the likelyhood is all these fillers are more likely to perform at 2015 levels than former prospect levels. Ever heard of Colin McHugh from Houston? He's doing pretty well for a waiver wire claim. Is this the basis for your contention to my comment regarding "likelyhood"? That all players acquired off waivers will perform at high - prospect projection status - levels?

i think the value received can be debated. After all, these are both A ball players. One is a 5'10" pitcher, the other a catcher, which is a position that is notoriously difficult to project. The issue here in reality is that both - regardless of skill set - are in fact A ball players. By definition that means they are several years from Milwaukee. That, in my mind, is the issue behind these trades. Improve the MLB roster.....in 3 years. As for Davis, I do find it interesting that a guy who hit 20 HRs in the last two months, has 4 years of control and advanced metrics loves his power tool, is meh, but the guys we picked up from others teams 40 man roster cuts are exciting and going to improve the team. Ummmm. Ok. Who is the beer holding couch GM there?

This is exactly how I feel about the deal. Nothing against Davis, I just feel like last year was more like his peak, as opposed to a step on the path to superstardom. Or a step towards being a better player. He wasn't even worth 1 WAR last year. So, to me, this is dealing a slightly-better-than-replacement-level player at his peak, which is a good thing. So...Davis is slightly better than replacement quality....... http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/68-win-as-get-khris-davis-from-68-win-brewers/ "There’s something else about him that’s kind of neat. I took the last three years, again, and I narrowed all the hitters down to guys with at least 100 batted balls to the pull side, up the middle, and the other way. Davis is one of just three players with a hard-hit rate north of 35% to all three fields. The others are Paul Goldschmidt and Miguel Cabrera. The contact quality is fantastic, and Oakland has been somewhat starved for this sort of strength. In terms of approach and strength, you can fairly compare Davis to Nelson Cruz. He looks like Nelson Cruz-lite — Cruz has achieved a certain level of consistency, but this is Davis’ ceiling. Players tend to fall short of their ceilings, but Cruz has been a four-win player two years in a row. It’s something to hope for."

"getting a future catcher hopefully". For one of the premier power hitters in baseball right now who's controllable for 4 more seasons, you better get a near future catcher definitely, not hopefully, and not one that's 3 years from his major league debut. There were going to be ample opportunities to pick up a catcher by other means over the next 3 years. This deal is a deal that teams tanking it do. Stearns doesn't want to take any chances that this team would be respectable and thereby draft below top 10 in 2017, and he's doing everything he can to insure it won't be. He might have held on to Davis if he got what he wanted for Lucroy by now, but in his mind a lineup that has both might actually be okay so better be safe than sorry and insure a 90 loss season. I doubt in his mind this team is going to be OK. Maldy once the Luc trade happens Carter Scooter/Hill Villars Cecchini Santana Broxton Braun No way is that a MLB roster any GM would put together if the goal is to win games. With the exception of Braun who is difficult to trade or he would have already been moved even by Melvin, that is quite literally an expansion team. He has more work to be do. I would not be surprised to see Wily and Smith go soon as well. If Smith makes it out of spring as the closer, that will be the sure sign of building his value for a trade, because Mil will not be paying closer money on his next contract. The term tanking seems to be quite offensive on this board, but that is the reality of baseball today, and really has been for quite some time. Teams in the past like Florida and Minn built, tore down, and rebuilt leading to championships. Now its more mathematically acceptable thanks in part to Theo and Houston which is why so many teams are doing the same thing. Oh and the guy had zero GM experience on his resume and was hired from Houston. Sheesh. This isn't rocket surgery. Of course they are tanking.

We have now acquired 3 catchers, 2 of which could play in Milwaukee this year, albeit as back ups, this offseason, so do the math on the likelyhood of Luc being traded very soon.

I care, greatly. I think many misunderstand my POV on the offseason, as opposed to July. This is the MLB board and I my "negativity" is only discussing the MLB roster. I AGREE with what Stearns is doing. I WANT the Brewers to develop not just a good, but the best farm system in the game filled with 8-10 top 100 players going forward. 81 wins would be a disaster, assuming the goal is to win a championship in the next 5-7 years. The Brewers are playing Chess, not Checkers. Checkers is adding Cecchini types et al in 2016 and saying well he might be OK. Checkers is adding a Carter and saying well he could be better than Lind, etc etc etc. The reality is in this day of advanced metrics, teams dont give up cheap talented players to waivers and pennies on the dollar trades, so the likelyhood is all these fillers are more likely to perform at 2015 levels than former prospect levels. Checkers is trading Davis a guy who has 4 years of control and carried the Brewers to their sub 500 but not horrible Aug/Sep with 20 HRs which I assume is a Brewers record and saying any corner OF we acquired will easily replace him. The guy has a top 5 exit velocity (read on Mlb traderumors, not sure of the metrics) so to say he isn't a talent and can easily be replaced isnt really being honest. Chess is trading our #4, #5 hitters and closer for literally nothing of value to the MLB roster for 3 or 4 years when that is exactly when the real roster should be taking shape. I just saw Harper wants $400M and Fernandez wants $30M per year. The Brewers cant play in that arena. All they can do is build a very deep farm system filled with guys of that caliber and expect to keep them for 5- 5.5 years and trade them in the Spring- July of their walk year. Thats the game as of today. Theo figured it out in Chicago, and put together 3 miserable teams before the lineup we see today was produced. Ditto Houston who used the first pick to leverage pool money. Like most sports leagues, this is a copy cat league, and now the Brewers are doing exactly what they did. As is Atlanta, Cincy, and Philly.

So you're saying there will be four 100 loss teams in 2016? Last I looked, Vegas odds had the Brewers at around 71 wins. Not sure if I'd take the over on that, but I absolutely would on 62. Vegas sees them at 3 games better after losing Lind, KRod, and Davis and replacing them with other teams 40 man rejects? Is that current? I'd love to see the metrics on such an estimate with the current roster. IF Stearns goal is to go from 68 to 71 wins then we hired the wrong guy. That would be a Herb Kohl kind of GM. I have no idea how many 100 loss teams there will be but the Brewers will be one, by design. Luc will be gone soon and likely Braun once they figure out the math on moving his contract. You'd have to about as hard core a fan as there is to not look at that remaining lineup as the worst in the game. If the Brewers were even thinking of competing in the next 2 plus years there is no way they trade away Davis who cost very little vs his production. Throw in the possibility of the DH and you have no reason to move him at all unless you want to tank. Had the Brewers trades been similar to July I'd disagree with the tanking model, but since they are going for guys like Diaz, the sherif, and the 3 rookie league lottery tickets from Seattle, it's quite clear the team has no interest it trying to build the MLB roster the next few years in what would be a futile effort vs the Cubs, Pirates, and Cards.

Traded INF Luis Sardinas to Seattle for OF Ramon Flores(23). Claimed OF Kirk Nieuwenhuis(28) off waivers from the N.Y. Mets and 1B Andy Wilkins(27) from Texas. Claimed C Josmil Pinto(26) off waivers from San Diego. Agreed to terms with 3B Will Middlebrooks(27) on a minor league contract. Agreed to terms with 1B Chris Carter(29) on a one-year contract. Traded SS Jean Segura and RHP Tyler Wagner to Arizona Diamondbacks for RHP Chase Anderson(28), 3B Aaron Hill(33), SS Isan Diaz and cash. Traded LF Rymer Liriano(24) to Milwaukee Brewers for LHP Trevor Seidenberger. Signed free agent LF Eric Young Jr.(30) to a minor league contract and invited him to spring training. Traded 1B Jason Rogers to Pittsburgh Pirates for CF Keon Broxton(25) and RHP Trey Supak. Claimed RHP Zack Jones(25) off waivers from Minnesota Twins. Traded C Manny Pina(28) to Milwaukee Brewers. Completes the November 18 trade. Claimed 2B Colin Walsh(26) off waivers from Oakland Athletics. Traded 3B Garin Cecchini(24) to Milwaukee Brewers for cash. Traded SS Jonathan Villar(24) to Milwaukee Brewers for RHP Cy Sneed. Either you do not know what exclusively means or your head has been in the sand. While there has been a lot of action towards the young prospects, Stearns has also done a nice job using resources to get some fresh players, some who still hold somewhat of a high upside, into Milwaukee building our depth. Some people want to pretend like the Brewers roster was winning games last year. There is a reason some of these guys are expendable and Davis is one of those players. I should have clarified and said legitimate prospects, but I feel you know that. The players on your list range from junk heap guys who couldn't make a 40 man on a good team to at top end just below average in Anderson You need to wrap your head around the fact that this team is going to be the Astros. In no possible way is Stearns trying to improve the MLB roster in 16-17 and likely 18. We have traded away our clean up hitter, our #5 hitter and our closer, all of whom played well in 2015, none of which were terribly expensive, and in those moves picked up no one of any possible value to the MLB roster until 2018 if then. This team will absolutely no doubt about it be a 100 loss team in 2016. The only issue in question is has he made the MLB roster bad enough to catch the Phillies, Reds, and Braves who are following the exact same blue print.

I doubt this trade was to open up a spot for Santana. I doubt any move that is made has a thing to do about the players already in the majors, or at least ones that matter. In fact I wouldn't be surprised to see Santana traded this season too if he shows some pop. When you are exclusively acquiring players who are in rookie or low A, you aren't focused on 16, 17, or even 18 at the MLB level.

I have no idea why Oakland made this trade. They're going to be terrible either way and they're in a brutal division. I don't get it. They picked up a cheap power hitter for very little and they control him for 4 years. What's the downside there? If he has one good year they flip for way more than they gave up since power is a very rare tool these days. Plus they have the DH so his value is higher in Oakland. It was a great trade for Oakland. As for Milwaukee, it is another step in building the low minors and making sure the MLB roster puts them in position to pick high in the draft the next three years which is the real prize in all the Stearns moves.