Boomer5

Flores is nothing of value. No need to accomodate him. At best he is just a guy. I have no idea why any team would ever trade for him let alone try and find a place in the starting lineup.

This is the best move. He was getting marginal in LF before we moved him to RF to accommodate Davis. Playing better in LF makes him a better trade chip assuming he recovers from the back surgery. Santana's bat almost has to be in the lineup.

The season hasnt started yet. What an odd thought to list as our worst move? He will be traded and likely very soon since catchers typically have more value working with a pitching staff in the spring. Sardinas was just a place holder for Arcia so he didnt have much value here. Flores, well i have zero idea why the Brewers wanted him as they have better OF prospects. I do think the OF logjam was created because Davis was going to be traded and Braun will be too once the injury and package can be put together.

Are we assuming Braun will start the season on the DL? Thats what I have been reading as he was just cleared for rotational exercises.

I agree the Davis trade was pretty bad, but Lind was worse. Nottingham may not stay at catcher but at least he has a tool that projects to the major league level and is a legitimate prospect. The guys in the Lind trade are just guys you'd have to round out a minor league pitching staff.

Best trade: Segura trade for Diaz and what I assume will be a flip of Anderson. Thats a lot of value for a lower level starting SS and a young pitcher the Brewers obviously didnt like very much. Worst trade: Lind. Very little to likely no value for a quality player at a position of need who wasnt making very much.

Ah, the classic every QB picked in the 6th round is the next Tom Brady argument. Look at the draft pool $$'s again from 1st on down and then look at the Brewers payroll capability vs. Chicago and St Louis. To say they dont need all the bullets they can to win this fight seems a tad on the optimistic side.

Never said he cares about winning this year. I said he isn't purposely trying to lose as many games as possible to get the #1 pick. Big difference there. The goal is to acquire and develop as much talent as possible for the future, it's really very simple. That will result in "x" number of wins/losses this year, which simply doesn't matter. No it isn't. He wants to lose and he wants to lose a lot. Publicly he cant say it but internally I will guarantee he and Montgomery talk about it all day every day. He wouldn't have traded cheap productive players and replaced them on the MLB roster with guys few if anyone one wanted if he didn't. Be as naive as you want, its a free country. The draft and international is every bit as important to his plan as the trades have been, and likely far more important. He isnt the clown from the Sixers, i will give you that. That guy might the worst thing to happen to sports since Roger Goodell. But make no mistake, the draft is Stearns key tool going forward and he intends to maximize his ammunition, and rightly so.

This is an excellent post. When I look the Brewers ability to get to a Championship, I am not looking at a team like the 78 Brewers where you could add a piece here and there in future years like Fingers and Vuke to get to the next level because you had a relatively stable line up. I would even suggest that we can't realistically be the 08 and 11 Brewers either unless it is ONE and only one player to get us over the hump. The Cubs can write a check. We cant. That's big. The Cubs made the decision to go after hitting only because it was easier to project and develop, and figured some combination of FA (Lackey, Lester) and luck (Arrietta) would get them the pitching they needed. We can only use luck and we know how fickle that can be. Instead, the Brewers will have to balance out a series of 5.5 year service players then rotate them out via trades and what I will assume will be a best in class farm system. That is a challenge few teams deal with, which is the basis for me saying this team is operating as deficit from other rebuilding projects because no matter how good our farm system is now, it doesn't have all the answers that a Lester FA pickup can solve. While we do not agree on the intent of Stearns making the MLB roster so bad in 2016, we do agree it will be bad and Montgomery can work his magic with a full cupboard of high picks and pool money.

The season hasn't started yet. Luc is all but gone. Braun is just a health and math issue. I will say if he doesnt trade Luc and Smith and/or takes back primarily MLB ready level talent for Luc then yes, you are right, he cares about winning this year. Let's remember his job responsibilities. He isnt in charge of marketing or selling tickets. His only job is the pipeline. 72 wins devastates his ability to do that. Does that mean he tweets it out like Kanye? Of course not, but do the math. His job gets a lot easier at 62 wins and way way way harder at 72 wins.

Smith was traded for a starting MLB OF'er/leadoff man. Seems like his value hasn't dropped since then???

Of course he is aware, who is saying he's not? But you still haven't answered my question. If Stearns had NO first round pick in the 2017 draft, what would he have done differently since he came to Milwaukee? See, I feel like this has become somewhat of a strawman argument. You are trying to prove the Brewers will benefit from a higher draft position, which nobody disputes. The only question is whether this is Stearns goal, or if it's simply the result of having a rebuilding year. I am not a mind reader but I dont think there is any doubt that is his goal based on his moves so far and the math that is the pool. Winning 72 games and picking 10th and giving up $8 million (the current difference in 1st to 10th) in slot money would be a full blown disaster. What GM that has just traded two cheap run producers in the heart of his order for 5 teenagers/A Ball guys cares about winning any games in 2016 if he has an excellent and easy to obtain chance to run the table on best in class talent in 17 and 18??? I can promise you that he is more than aware of the difference between 62 and 72 wins and the damage 72 wins would do to his pipeline which is all he cares about, and rightly so. This board was quite excited over trading for Nottingham (meh) and Diaz (A+++ pick up). An extra $8 Million is the exact same thing as picking 4-5 guys who by their signing status would be better than a Notthingham or a Diaz using the underslot first pick model Stearns former team used with Correa. What would he do differently if he didn't have a first round pick in 2017? He would be even more aggressive on trades in terms of high ceiling lower level guys than he has been because he understands the incredible loss the pick and the pool $$ would be. In fact, I think he knows how bad that loss would be that, assuming he had other GM offers, he might not even take the Brewer job.

If you buy into analytics you know that any preseason projection is just that, a preseason projection. The error bars around such projections are quite large for a number of reasons. That said, the fangraphs link you provided for the Brewers currently has them projected for 69 wins which is more games than they won last year. Assuming the projection is accurate and the Brewers are a 69 win true talent level team I'd expect them to win anywhere between 59 & 79 games depending on how the season plays out. With that wide of a range of possibilities it is in no way "downright goofy" to say that the Brewers "could" win more games than last year. That chart, which shows a currently awful team especially on defense, has Luc - our top projected WAR and only meaningful plus defender - who is almost certainly gone and Smith who I think will soon be gone. Thrown in Braun, who is the teams only run producer, coming off back surgery, then yes it is not plausible to think the Brewers will win more games than last year. If you are a there's always a chance kind of guy, then fine, there is always a chance, as small as it might be. And its very very small.

Wouldn't the Brewers be better off if they were picking 1st than 5th? Just browse the draft history at baseball-reference. Looking it's rare for the best pick in slots 1-4 to be noticeably better than the best pick in round 1 that came 5+. The trick is getting the right guy. In other sports, NBA in particular, the best player is often drafted #1, and the talent drop off is significant. I will respond to your post, though there were several similar posts that suggested the 1st pick wont give the Brewers a major advantage over picking say 5th, like this year. Firstly, it is always better to be picking higher in the draft just by its nature. Yes, teams screw up all the time but that is not the fault of picking high, it is the fault of a bad selection. Which brings me to the next point, which is far more relevant in today's amateur infusion process. The bonus pool. Having a bigger pool means you can not only go after elite talent, done correctly, you can go deeper in the draft by selecting a key under slot player, like Stearn's former team did with Correa. I posted this in another thread but it needs to be repeated for the folks that think building a team is just as easy no mater where you pick: Club Rule 4 (Draft) International Total Reds $13,923,700 $5,163,400 $19,087,100 Phillies $13,405,200 $5,610,800 $19,016,000 Braves $12,385,200 $4,766,000 $17,151,200 Padres $12,743,800 $3,347,600 $16,091,400 Rockies $11,153,400 $4,412,700 $15,566,100 Athletics $9,883,500 $3,818,700 $13,702,200 Brewers $9,364,300 $4,098,500 $13,462,800 http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/2016-mlb-draft-international-bonus-pools/ While the Phillies finished with 63 wins, the Reds with 64 are higher due to winning the highest competitive balance pick. Look at that gap between 63 wins and 68 wins in terms of what a team can accomplish. That is not insignificant especially for a team with limited tools of player procurement as the Brewers. The next point mentioned by another poster suggested the Brewer are farther along than Houston or Chicago at the time of the, ahem "rebuild" as I have made a deal not to use that other word. That is false. While the Brewers farm system is more advanced at this stage than either of those two teams, the Brewers are starting with a massive disadvantage to those two teams, especially Chicago, which is not coincidentally the team the Brewers will be competing against assuming the rebuild works. That is payroll to both add the finishing touches in a JHey, Lester, Zobrist, or retain the stars they selected during the rebuild process. The Brewers wont be adding the version of Lester of 2018 because by then whoever he is will cost $250M or so. Instead the Brewers will have to develop him, which mean they need more quality picks via the underslot selection then using the pool money to go deeper in the draft. Seeing as how the Brewer were 5 wins from the top spot, I guarantee both Montgomery and Stearns remain furious at the Brewers modest and not awful finish. If it was up to them, they would have gone 0 for September. Its their job to win a championship, not cobble together a 72 win team that will probably not draw one more person than a 62 win team. We will have to agree to disagree on that but i would submit to you to monitor the traffic on this board during the minor league season and draft time vs the game day threads to understand how critical maximizing, even painfully so, the tools to build a team really are.

Im seeing either Wily or Anderson go in a trade soon. Im assuming its Anderson since selling Wily now would be selling very low. So thats; Nelson Wily Jungmann Garza Davies Smith will almost certainly be traded. The packages for bullpen arms is insane and the Brewers need to take advantage of that before teams come to their senses. He is a guy that projects as an elite LH 8th inning, possible Closer, even possible starter, and he has team control left. This is a big trade chip on a team that doesnt need him. I dont think Jeffries has a closers make up from what I have seen but he would make the most sense due to his stuff. I can very easily seen Blazek or Knebel becoming the closer by May. Here is how I see it assuming a Smith trade: Closer: Jeffries 8th: Blazek 7th: Knebel Thornburg, Boyer, Barrios, Pena

Wouldnt it be the catcher we picked up from Detroit in the KRod deal? I just assumed we picked him up to be the back up to Maldy once the Luc deal happens.

After seeing the Phillies and Padres got for their closers, Im thinking a deal 1/2 to 3/4 of that is possible. A Smith and Luc package might just wipe a desperate teams farm system and put the Brewers into the top 1 or 2 systems in the game.

Look at that 2016 chart again. The pool money for the difference of 5 wins is $5.5M. I am assuming Montgomery knows what he is doing. I will also assume that he would do better with an additional $5.5, and lets face it, the fans wouldn't have been any less excited to finish last vs 5th to last. Off topic, but Trout was picked one pick before the Brewers picked. Why? Because baseball somehow rated Texiera higher than CC who had a much better season. I hate how baseballs FO works.

Further to my post above, the 2016 draft plus international pool is more interesting: Club Rule 4 (Draft) International Total Reds $13,923,700 $5,163,400 $19,087,100 Phillies $13,405,200 $5,610,800 $19,016,000 Braves $12,385,200 $4,766,000 $17,151,200 Padres $12,743,800 $3,347,600 $16,091,400 Rockies $11,153,400 $4,412,700 $15,566,100 Athletics $9,883,500 $3,818,700 $13,702,200 Brewers $9,364,300 $4,098,500 $13,462,800 If you are Stearns and the door is closed, which is more compelling to you? 68 wins and $13.4M or 63 wins and $19M? Its a little more complicated than that because Cinn won the first competitive balance pick but again you get the idea. If you are the GM, which is easier to obtain in 2017 if you are handed a 68 win team? Get us to the top pool money or the Wild Card? http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/2016-mlb-draft-international-bonus-pools/

Brewers current rebuilding process is not unconventional. It's the same thing smart teams have been doing for decades. Also, a large draft pool is not the only way to build a WS capable team. How about selling off assets and bringing in guys like Phillips, Hader, Santana, Houser, Davies, Diaz, Nottingham, and others- and more to come? Maybe use the international market wisely (Arcia, Lara, others to come.) Of course the draft is important, especially for a team like the Brewers. But you seem to imply targeting the 1st or 2nd overall pick is the goal, and the best (or only) way to find top players and build a winner. That is simply not true. While every likes the direction the Brewer farm system has gone the last two years, I havent heard anyone say we have a truly Superstar talent base other than Arcia. What the system lacks are the guys that make the StL "fans" have the kind of discussion we were having about the Cubs two years ago. That is the difference and thats what a larger draft pool means to the WS viability of this team or if just being good is the goal. This is the 2015 slot pool for the first 10 rounds of the draft (Houston had 2 high picks so that skews it but you get the idea). If you think Stearns isnt painfully aware of this and what it would mean to his talent acquisition plans, think again. Astros -- $17,289,200 Rockies -- $13,989,800 D-backs -- $12,816,100 Braves -- $10,684,100 Rangers -- $9,099,900 Yankees -- $7,885,000 Dodgers -- $7,781,700 Reds -- $7,777,900 Brewers -- $7,743,800 http://m.mlb.com/news/article/126797888/breakdown-of-2015-draft-signing-bonus-pools

Tate and Gallo + for Luc/Anderson. Stearns doesnt mind strike outs and once Beltre signs Gallo is pretty free to be traded. Anderson seems to have been traded here almost for the sole purpose of trading him as the Brewers really dont have a crying need for a 28 year old #4 starter. That is pretty much the profile of most of their more advanced arms.

The Brewers arent going to take on major leaguers as the centerpiece of a Luc trade unless it's to absorb salary to add to the prospect package, like Hill with the AZ trade. I have no interest in helping the Cubs get better unless it guts their minor league system anyhow.

Wouldn't the Brewers be better off if they were picking 1st than 5th?

Deal! I haven't read anyone that thinks the team is improved. I've only read people defending that losing as many games as possible isn't the main goal and that, while possible, it's not guaranteed they will actually lose 100 games (just like I wouldn't guarantee a team that looks good on paper will win the division or go to the World Series, there's just too much variance from talent to results to make a claim like that). I will live up to my end of the deal, but I have seen quite a few posts that suggest this team is better off and could win more games than last year, which is downright goofy if you buy into analytics. But regardless, we have a deal. Its rebuilding now.

I'm not sure anyone is saying the MLB team is improved over last year. I see a lot of people saying the 2016 team might have a better record than the 2015 team which certainly is possible considering Lohse was terrible, Garza was terrible and can't be any worse this year, Ramirez was terrible, Lucroy and Scooter were crap for 1/2 a year, and Segura was crap for a whole year. Last year was such a disaster for so many players. If the new guys can play to even the bottom of their expectations the 2016 record shouldn't be any worse than 2015. Lets remember, this is not a one year 2015 fluke. The team was actually worse the 2nd half of 2014, so its 18 months of some really bad baseball. That hard to blame on some bad luck. Lohse was terrible for sure. Anderson is an upgrade. Segura is terrible, Villars projects to be terrible, in fact, I would bet he projects as the worst starting defensive SS in the game. Ramirez was terrible, Hill projects to be terrible. Luc will be traded, his replacements are terrible. Scooter is Scooter and has no real impact one way or the other. Garza was terrible and is terrible at a year older. Going on the fangraphs depth chart, only catcher projects as a plus defense, and Luc will be traded. The rest that project to start are negative value guys on D. Now for the guys your left off from 2015 to 2016: Lind was good, Carter is terrible Davis was the leagues best power hitter the last 1/3 of the season and he is gone. Braun, our lone run producer (read that statement again please), is recovering from back surgery. Parra, our first half MVP is gone. Gomez is gone. KRod is gone and his replacement Smith is on the block. Jeffries doesn't seen to have a closers make up but you never know. So lets look at this more closely after all the moves, 2015 to 2016: C: Worse assuming Luc trade 1B: Worse 2B: Same SS: Same though differently, worse D, better O 3B: Same to Worse as i dont see Hill/Cecchini replacing ARam even with his relatively poor season. LF: Better assuming Braun is moved here and he plays 140 games CF: Worse RF: Worse Rotation: Better due to development of the young guys and Anderson over Lohse Bullpen: Worse due to losing KRod, causing the domino effect. It is very statistically likely this team will be worse than last year unless you think Nelson, Wily, and Jungmann are on the cusp of being the 90's Braves part II.