tmwiese55
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Everything posted by tmwiese55
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Domingo Santana - round 2
tmwiese55 replied to KeithStone53151's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
ahh, I knew he ended last year hurt yet again but assumed he'd be fine for the start of the year. -
Domingo Santana - round 2
tmwiese55 replied to KeithStone53151's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Outside the box idea. Santana/Thames and prospects for Abreu and Rodon from the White Sox. Get your cheap cost controlled starter with a bunch of upside (also lefty which is good) and get an AS level every day 1B. I'm not nearly as in tune with most here on prospect values but I'd assume this costs us much less than what TB was asking for Shields. If it would cost much as Shields or more, then I wouldn't do it. Essentially I'm looking at it as cheaper route. Maybe I'm wrong at that assumption, you guys know more on that end. Of course you're getting a riskier P but to balance that you're getting a great 1B for two years. Sox would get whatever prospects we give, plus they can try to flip Santana/Thames later if they put up good numbers. -
To Bill hall's post: That's true and I guess I'd generally agree if I had to pick one purely on hitting this year. But just quickly looking at Vogt he's really only had one good year (unlike a Luc with years before his poor 2017) and his eyeball test his body looks really beat up like he moves like an old player, which he is. I know Pina isn't much younger, but he just looks so much fresher/quicker/spry or whatever you want to call it and obviously that's important for D and likelihood of staying healthy all year.
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This argument essentially comes to Vogt vs Pina. One guy got cut last year because he'd been bad for a while and is terrible on defense at one of the most important defensive position. The other played great D with a great arm while hitting at a respectable clip consistently all year. I know which one I'd roll with and it's not very close. The only thing Vogt has going is being lefty but in a platoon like this you're going to have a closer to 50/50 thing going on more than a strict right lefty since you're not going to play Vogt every game vs rightys because he's just not good enough. But even if you do think it's a close call I think this should be the deciding point. If Lucroy got hurt for an extended stretch, which one could play the normal C level of starts of 66-75% of games. That answer is Pina. And this comes from someone who repeatedly defended Vogt at the end of last year over the constant bashing of his arm by people who acted like we're just going to give 11 stolen bases per game.
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Jeez, had no idea this would spiral so much of one small comment. Long story short to try and end it, yes a few are young and could massively improve. I said that way at the beginning. But that's still a question and you just don't know for sure. Until they do it you can't 'bank' on it so to speak. You have your two MVPs so obviously that's huge, all I said is after that you just don't really know what to bank on. Baez and Schwarber are the huge variables, continue to be Reynolds boom or bust types and they're just blah guys, as Brewer fans we know all too well on those types. But if they take a leap, then yea they're scary. If not then you have your two awesome guys and a bunch of mediocrity. And it's not like I expect one of the stars to get hurt so I fully expect their O to be strong. I only brought it up as a 'break' that could go our way to get us a much bigger chance than we think as of now. Look at how deep the LAD and WAS lineups are vs the Cubs. Big difference.
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I agree with trying to get the Wild Card. I don't agree that the Cubs' offense is pedestrian after Bryant/Rizzo. A lot of guys had down years, and regression to the mean is in their favor in a big way. Plus they have Quintana, Chatwood, and Darvish for a full season, instead of having Quintana for just half a season. They're going to be a nightmare. I'm fine with buying low, but make sure the future is your priority. The Yelich trade is fine. Signing Cain is okay. But don't be too stubborn to punt on the season if you muddle through the first 3 months. Having two MVP level players his huge, so yea their offense is good. But other than C they have no other + hitters at their positions. Sure, some are still young and could take a leap but after being up for a couple years already we'll see if that happens. This could also change drastically if Schwarber lives up to the hype rather than being a Mark Reynolds/Chris Carter type. But as of now that's a big question. That's all I meant by it, take out one of Bryant/Rizzo for a big chunk of the year and that lineup is just like any other ok team. I'd assume MKE would need a break of that nature to give them a really good shoot at the division rather than the outside shot they'd have now. Like you said, they fixed their pitching big time now.
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That's the tough part of 'going for it' right now. LAD, WAS, and Cubs are just loaded and there's no moves you can make to be on par with them. Still there's reason to add the SP and try. You can make yourself the likely 4th best team giving you a good shot at the playoffs where anything can happen. As loaded as the Cubs are now that they've sured up their SP, an injury to one of Rizzo/Bryant makes their offense extremely pedestrian. Their offense is extremely top heavy with those two. Also, as we all know MKE can't compete in the market next offseason and the market factors have suppressed prices this offseason so it's the right time to be 'buying low', so to speak. And beyond that, WAS team is likely to fall off quite a bit in 2019 so it at least reduces one powerhouse then.
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What if we don't add a starter?
tmwiese55 replied to jonescm128's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
I generally agree with the point that I trust Suter to be competent when needed, like last year. That said, you have to factor in how likely it is for one or two SPs to be hurt at some point. So I'd basically be wanting the other added SP in order to keep Suter as the guy to fill in as needed. He is still somewhat of a gimmick that I'm not sure would hold up with 33 starts and his stats are a bit skewed in a way because you go into his starts knowing to not let him go through the lineup 3 times. It's better to know that about someone rather than let him get beat up in the 6th and 7th inning, but it also means he's somewhat limited and someone you'd like as your fill in rather than relied on as a starter. That's my two cents. FA SP, Anderson, Davies, Chacin, Woodruff to start the year with Suter ready as the fill in. By the time Nelson is back someone else will be hurt or not doing well and you're in the same spot. As someone else said, this stuff usually takes care of itself and you can never have too much starting pitching. Remember to finish last year we only had 3 SPs. -
Thing is having a legit source doesn't mean the source is always correct on everything since the source is only hearing the Brewers side of things and doesn't have access to the player's views or other teams views. The source itself is working with limited info, passing on what he can, then someone like an HH passes on what he can. There's so many variables in there, that's why it's so dumb to try and discredit someone and 'prove' they're a fraud. Just take it for what it is.
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That could well be true and I might have a bit more confidence in Woodruff than most. But those 2-3 extra Ws you get with Cobb instead of Gallardo/Wilkerson/Guerra could easily be the difference between playoffs or not. Or division or WC. That's the decision point. If they were just team hoping to be .500 and not really make the playoffs then it doesn't make sense, but getting those extra couple wins could be huge in the area they're trying to compete this year.
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I was thinking the same, at some point you'd think these guys would just want to put the offseason behind them, put the money in the bank and get to spring training to get ready for the season. Just get it done in the next couple days.
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I hope at some point baseball reference includes a needles moved stat. With the cost on Arrieta like it sounds still seems to me this is a fair compromise.
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I said a couple weeks ago that Cobb might be middle ground solution. The top two guys will be too much money. Trading for Archer is too many prospects. Getting Cobb while not without risk due to the recent TJ and his only so-so year afterwards should be half the financial risk of the top guys. Hopefully only having to give 4 years at most, maybe even get the 4th as team option with how bad the market is right now?
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Arrieta didn't come out of nowhere. When he left the AL East (pssst...Archer) in 2013 his numbers dropped drastically and have been either good or great since. He was good for 1.5 years before he went total ham. Signing him is not my #1 priority unless we go and get Archer or a guy like Clevenger to complement him. It doesn't make sense otherwise. But if we're going "all in" and "win now" as some say we are, my preference is to go in all the way and sign him. Arrieta/Archer/Nelson/Anderson/Davies/Burnes(Woodruff) has us contending for titles, not Wild Card banners. If we don't go that route I agree, absolutely no Arrieta. So you're saying it's not of nowhere because he had the good 2nd half the year before? OK, call it whatever you want. The guy was terrible, then all of a sudden figured it out and dominated for 1.5 years at age 29. NL helped and finding the right pitching coach that tweaked his mechanics was big too. But then started regressing. It is what it is. he has his PED rumors around him but who knows. However you want to slice it, he's regressed massive each year for two years now and is now 32. I'm just saying that he was someone who didn't break out until 28/29 is a sign he's more likely to regress than a blue chip guy. I guess i'm just pretty skeptical since he got crushed for half of last season and we'd likely be paying him until he's 37. But yea if they go for it I sure hope he's awesome the next 2-3 years.
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Well laid out, makes sense. Thanks. I generally agree this is a logical time on a account of the cost clearly being pushed down right now so MKE can actually be involved. Still, if Arrieta demands are legit in the 5/125 world then just go to the next guys at much less. All the same reasons apply that you stated as to what should keep their prices down and why we have a window now, but should be drastically less financial risk if it goes badly.
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He's also a guy that came out of nowhwere to have a ridiculous year at age 29 and has taken a major step back each year since and was rocked for the whole first half last year. To me out of nowhere at an old age guys are the most likely regression candidates, and he is now 32. Sure he'd likely be our best guy this year but he also might just be a 3.5-4 era guy, which of course is fine, but not worth 25 mil per year and a good chance he could be on the lower end of that or worse in the last 2-3 years of the deal. There's a chance if his regression continues that Woodruff could end up with similar numbers for 500K. And we're now on years and years of early 30s players getting huge deals and then regressing for whatever reasons (normal age, not working as hard since they have their big payday in the bank, etc). Or of course he could be a workout warrior and keep producing at 3.5 or better. But you have to weigh all that into the decision. I hope for a 4 year max with that 4th some kind of option. But I don't see it happening and I certainly don't want to go 6 years.
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I've been pretty low on getting on Arrieta as he sure seemed to fall off hard last year. Maybe I'm skewed as I had him in fantasy so I was tuned into him getting hammered the first 3 months of the year, he had a 4.67 ERA at the end of June and when I watched it was him being hit hard. Now, I know he had a good second half so it's tough to know for sure what's up, but for a guy that came out of nowhere like he did he sure seems like a good chance he could also lose it fairly quickly. And he'll be 32 starting this year. So, overall I'll accept it or take him if it's 4 years or less and hope for best while being happy we have our remaining prospects. I'm fairly skeptical though and would likely rather find a less expensive person like Lynn or Cobb. I know they have their risks too but would seemingly cost much less.
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I thought it was funny. You have to laugh at yourself sometimes. If poking fun of someone is jerky then every single person on this thread is jerky. It's a message board. My opinions aren't going to get censored because someone has thin skin. There is a whole lot about what he posted that doesn't make sense and I've bit my tongue on a lot of it but the whole point of this board is contrary to the point you are trying to make. But the important thing is that it's helping blow up his spot. That's the bigger issue here imo. And it's a jerk move to do such a thing to the person and source who it could get back to. Just take it for what it is, discuss the rumors. I mean, we had days of people constantly asking for updates with no response, the guy gives an update that there really is no update on anything close, but says some things that have at least been discussed and where his friend thinks the issues are. And several people make fun or complain that it's such a bad update. What's he supposed to do if there is nothing big imminent, he passed on what he was told. He's trying to give info to diehards, would you bother keeping it up to deal with that reaction?
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Making a mock parody account on twitter is a pretty jerky move and just the general nitpicking and questioning if he's full of it. It is what it is, no reason for it to be a combative thing. and again I would venture to guess it's not like he can't handle people talking back, but the bigger issue is that it's just gotten too big and will catch the eye of someone and get back to his friend.
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But this is an average joe just relaying info from a friend. Take it for what it is with the proper grain of salt, no need for attacks or trying to prove him as bs and for blowing it up. Moreso than him not liking criticism is that it's just gotten too much attention so he should just back off so whoever he's talking to doesn't get in trouble. If you don't believe him, just don't believe him, no need to be jerks about it.
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Yea I've been thinking this is getting a little too much attention and eventually is going to be figured out by your friend that it's being leaked. Best not to burn any bridges. thanks for what you could provide.
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And we can point to a few hundred other guys who fell off in those ages too.
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I don't think the pitching staff is all that weak. It could be improved for sure but it's not awful. Yea I'd call it generally in the ballpark of what we went into last year with. Of course last year exceeded expectations with Anderson/Nelson, and even Davies 2nd half. But on paper about the same and slightly better as we went into the year with if we trust Anderson/Davies as legit. Still, could definitely use one more proven person to put on top of them to cover things, especially with Nelson out for a bit. For others saying they expect or accept that this is it, I'm the opposite. I still fully expect them to add one more SP, maybe not at the level we expected/hoped, but something. I'm sure some of those takes are based off what Stearns said on how he expects them to go with what they have now. I took him coming out publicly to comment like that as PR/negotiating on his part, he's been dead silent for 4 months then comes out and publicly says that we're good with what we have. I think that was on purpose for negotiations and telling the FAs and team we're not giving more.
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I have a pretty straight forward view on it. First, it's absolutely dumb to have different rules within the same league. Therefore, it has to go one way or the other. I'm fairly down the middle on not caring which way but I'd slightly pick NL rule due to the strategy. However, I know that is impossible as the union will never let them eliminate the DH and the extra pay that goes with it. Plus the specialization in sports leads this way too. So, it's inevitable that it will eventually happen so let's just get it over with already. What are we waiting for
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IDK on Bauer. Sure seems just like an ok pitcher, nothing that's a significant upgrade. I mean, would any of us be really surprised if Woodruff could do the exact same stat line this year.