MrTPlush

I could really see Hockenson. After the all out FA finding defense I think their preference might just be offense for their first pick or two...but if someone with great value falls to us that they like on defense I don't think they would go against taking that guy. If they go defense I would guess it would be pass rush.

Yes understand your thinking, cause a short time ago I would have agreed with it. But after doing some research and realizing that the Brewers revenues have increased more in the last two years than just about any other team in baseball, we have the $ to invest in a player that is arguably the most elite at his position. The old saying you have to spend money to make money. With JJ’s injury among other things I don’t think our bullpen is a strong as you make it out to be at least starting the year. I can’t think of a single player that would help the Brewers more than Kimbrel. I think this possibility would be much more likely if Kimbrel was a one year deal candidate. Clearly that isn't the case. I don't see any way the Brewers make a major commitment to have what would be a major luxury to make the bullpen better. What if a major need arises next year or midseason? Going to be really hard to get someone, especially if it requires a longer term deal if you tie up $15mil to Kimbrel. As much as I would like to dream I don't think there is any way short term we are going to just start busting out a $150mil+ payroll because we are competing.

A small market is not going to spend $15mil+ on a reliever when their bullpen is already a strength. That is some luxury the biggest markets on the planet can do if they want. Small markets simply don't spend big money on the bullpen and for good reason. If we won't spend $5mil to get a veteran lefty we surely aren't spending three times that for three times as long for a reliever. I am not really against the idea persay (I am a big proponent of super pens, much like what we got to employ last season), but the odds the Brewers sign Kimbrel seems to be in the negatives.

Wily Peralta? Wow Sorry, speechless for a bit. Now that I’ve had a chance to recover let me just say Nelson in 15 and 16 young pitcher with good stuff and no command. His mechanical adjustment made in early 17 improved his curveball and command of all his pitches, hence ace like pitcher all of 17 til injury. He figured it out, like ALL good pitchers eventually do. If Jimmy not injured I’d say 90+% 2018 season similar to 2017 season. It isn't about comparing their skill levels. It is the concept that one can figure things out and take steps back in the future. Wily Peralta was promising himself and showed flashes of potential through his early years of struggle. You can attribute Nelson's success to a mechanical change etc., but that doesn't really change the fact he can regress. If mechanical changes were so magical I would think Wade Miley could have secured a nice multi year deal. I am not sure how many pitchers who debut at 25+ years old, are average for a good chunk of time, and suddenly vault into the Top 10 analytically as pitchers...but it seems pretty unlikely. At the end of the day Nelson is a baseball player and more importantly a pitcher. Where career years are common and regression also very common. Whether a #5 pitcher or a #1 pitcher one is likely to have major outlier seasons good and bad. It is especially concerning when a pitcher depends on command as you say to be elite vs. average. He could lose that overnight...he has zero track record with good commond outside of 2017. Is it crazy to think Nelson went from average to having a career year and would have settled in as a really good #3 or a low end #2?

Yes they are. Why can one expect Anderson to regress...but not Nelson? Nelson can easily see his numbers regress a bunch just like Anderson saw his regress. Yes, there was some predictable regression for Anderson because of his HR/FB rate, but things like his K and BB were not predictable regressions. Better stuff doesn't make you less likely to regress, it just changes where you start/end. Anderson went from Very Good to Average. Nelson could go from Elite to Above Average. Same concept just a different scale. Some guys just don't have the bite or control they had year to year. Sometimes one year just blatantly sticks out. It is no different than being a pumpkin one month and then Cy Young the next (which Nelson experienced in 2017). You could pick just about any player you want that had a nice career and find a year that just sticks out from the rest (either notably worse or notably better).

I don't think it needs to be unexpected and the definition of unexpected is open for interpretation too. Who expected Nelson to pitch like he did before 2017? Non one, not a singe person. So isn't that unexpected? Just because the outlier is the last data point doesn't matter. An outlier is an outlier. In the somewhat limited amount of data we have 2017 was an outlier. Though more officially I would rather see a solid 5 seasons before labeling any thing an outlier in super official terms. But loosely, yah, it was kind of an outlier. People are getting to caught up in outlier=shouldn't have happened or can't again. When that isn't true and all they are trying to say is even before the injury repeating 2017 was a lofty expectation or largely unknown how possible that may be.

Okay I don't think anyone expected Anderson to be a 2.75 ERA pitcher...I mean, duh. However, it wasn't really crazy to think he could be vastly improved. His career HR rate even taking out 2017 wasn't that insanely high (1.2ish before coming to Milwaukee). Not great, but certainly not a travesty. He saw an uptick in Ks, downtick in BBs, and a major downtick in hits allowed. Surprisingly the lack of hits given up continued in 2018 which helped him keep solid numbers even with a major spike in HRs given up. What really helped him take a step back in 2018 was his K rate dropping and his walk rate rising back to career norms. Jimmy Nelson could certainly see the same where his K and BB numbers resort back to something more realistic for his career. I think Nelson would fare better even with regression....but point is he isn't any more safe than Anderson was.

I think this is a little misleading, without digging into it very much, it was a different group of hitters who have gradually cared less and less about striking out. The average K/9 in 2017 for the NL was 8.4. In 2011 it was 7.3. In 2004 it was 6.4. I would say Sheets posting a 10 K/9 in 2004 is much better than Nelson posting 10.2 in 2017 A little bigger change than I thought, but the point is Nelson went from very average K/9 numbers to elite numbers. He ranked #10 in K rate and the #8 pitcher overall according to Fangraphs. He went from nothing to something...not just something, but statistically he went from a #4 starter to being mentioned as good as Kershaw/DeGrom/Strasburg/etc. in a lot of ways. That is an outlier. When you have to massive average (or worse) seasons and then decide to be a bonifide ace, how is that not an outlier? His stats backed it up, but regardless it is an outlier. Which will raise a lot of questions before one decides to blow their shoulder.

Aguilar at #62? Wow. Without checking out the entire list I would probably take almost the rest of the Top 100 behind him easily instead of him. He was woefully average in the 2nd half...actually for a average defense 1st baseman he was probably pretty bad for a contending team. His OPS was like .760 in the second half...

I think the odds Jimmy Nelson is 2017 good ever again are probably low...but then again I can't say I would be confident in him ever being like that again without the injury. He struck out 10.2/9....that is pretty insane. That is about what Greinke did for us in 2011 and that was Greinke's career high. That was higher than Sheets and Gallardo EVER had. You don't have to be a risky person to bet against him being that good again. I expect him to be more like his 2015 self. I am not confident he is going to strike people out at that rate again and I don't know how his control will be post injury. That would not be all that bad to be honest. Repeating 2017 would have been a feat anyway.

Right, I am not saying Davies can't be good, once again pretty solid guy to have. On a competing team probably more of a #4 guy, but I can see #3 with improvement. Not sure I see that though. Brewers staff goes seven deep with strength. I think Davies a quality number 4 The other six being better than that this year. Easily the most underrated starting staff in the National League. That really is the single most important thing about this team outside of the bullpen. It is the reason we will win the NL Central if it happens...arguably was the reason we won it last year. Over the course of 162 games a MAJOR chunk will be guys filling in when one of the Top 5 get injured. The ability to have multiple guys who are quality MLB pitchers to step is what will take us from say 90 wins to 95 wins. It is huge. So many teams, even contenders, are forced to use dumpster fire guys when a starter goes out. Hopefully we never find that problem this year.

Right, I am not saying Davies can't be good, once again pretty solid guy to have. On a competing team probably more of a #4 guy, but I can see #3 with improvement. Not sure I see that though.

It isn't the end of an argument or a start...it is completely irrelevant. That record was 100% a reflection of our offense (and our bullpen to a lesser extent) when he pitched. Well, and the fact he started 33 games, which is very unlikely. He was given 6+ runs of support 11 times in 2017. Predictably we won all of them. In what I would call more normal circumstances (3-5 runs of support) he was 6-5. Average...which pretty much sums up Davies. Pretty much what you are saying is, "I would like my offense to score 6+ runs every game for my #3 starter." Because in about half of Davies starts in 2017 he was pretty meaningless no matter how he pitched. At his best Davies is a solid #3...but that's about as much as he has ever shown. My prime example is Braden Looper who went an impressive 14-7 on a terrible team (2009) despite a 5.22 ERA, 10.4 H9, and 39 homers given up.

Can never have enough starting pitching. So many people are writing off Anderson and Davies after down years last year. Anderson put up arguably ace-type numbers in 2017, though, and Davies was a strong #2-3 starter. If those two can approach that production again, the starting staff is in a very good place. Even last year Anderson was pretty darn solid. Either people are way too spoiled about having some solid younger guys or they are way to fixated on a single stat (HRs). Bottom line Chase Anderson limits baserunners and many of the HRs are fairly harmless. What exactly is the difference between Davies letting guys round the bases with hits ( >9.0 H9 every year of his career) and Anderson giving up dingers? Actually I would argue Anderson giving up homers is somewhat beneficial considering giving up a run on one batter is way better than wasting pitches/energy on 2-3 batters. If Chase Anderson isn't one of our Top 5 pitchers when it is all said and done this year I would be really surprised and assume we acquired someone major at the deadline. Pretty solid backend guy at worst in my opinion. I'd bet on someone disappointing this year and being worse than Anderson. Not sure on Davies though...feels like he is in the same boat, backend guy. Not sure when he was ever like a #2 or #3 starter.

We are not carrying three catchers now and certainly aren't when there are 26 guys. You are lucky if your first catcher doesn't suck, insane if you have a second catcher even remotely decent, and to have a third catcher even MLB worthy for an extended period? Yah, not happening. Only argument is so you can use your 2nd catcher as a pinch hitter in a game (which most teams refuse to do). But then again why would you do that? You could find someone who hits better than a #3 catcher and just have them on the bench. If your #3 catcher is your best last man on the bench you are probably losing 100 games. I just doubt a team would have that good of a 2nd catcher offensively where this makes sense. Regarding a defensive sub late...yah if you have two terrible catchers defensively where that is an option...probably losing a lot of games.

Nelson should not have any limitations regarding his health. Now could there be a hypothetical limitation because him throwing 180+ innings might tire him out and the tail end of those innings (plus playoffs) might be a empty tank Nelson.

It is an arbitration contract. We can cut him and only pay him $300k. $1.2mil if he makes roster, but obviously we then signed Grandal.

Perhaps. I suppose there is a chance he could be squeezed through the DFA process, but it really seems to me that quality catching depth is at an all-time low league-wide. But if Kratz were to be DFA'd and claimed, I wouldn't view it as a big loss. Nottingham can easily come up if there is an injury, and Tuffy Gosewisch can fill that veteran catcher/AAA mentor/emergency MLB role. I mean I don't hate Kratz, he would be a pretty nice 3rd catcher (much like Pina as a really good 2nd catcher), but if some team wants him I guess they can have him. Most teams prefer zero offense and good defense for their #2 if they don't have a choice. Kratz is probably bad at both.

Yes because he would decline and shop around elsewhere, obviously. Could always then sign him to a split contract. I can't imagine there is any way he wouldn't be able to catch on as a reserve somewhere on a ML deal. Just finding a guy who can give you a professional AB and not embarrass himself defensively would be an improvement for a lot of teams in that spot. Then why did Kratz struggle to get a job for years? He isn't any different now really.

Well kind of a hard question when one doesn't have contract options to pick from. I will take Kimbrel though. Probably a shorter contract and cheaper. Our rotation will be fine. If we need to get a back end guy to solidify it, fine...but we probably have enough depth. Keuchel just isn't a huge difference maker to me over what we have. While last October proves no ones performance is guarantee (Kimbrel was bad) I want the bullpen guy. Bullpen bullpen bullpen...that is the pitching that wins a World Series. Keuchel is not the kind of starter that is going to be ungodly in the postseason. The only thing that makes me want Keuchel is the fact he may help more getting to the postseason, which is obviously important. I am pretty confident this team can get there just as well with Kimbrel (and grabbing a starter in July if need be). So I want Kimbrel. I am guessing Kimbrel would sign for a lot less than one would expect though in my analysis....and I also don't particularly want to spend big money on either. So really neither is the right answer...but if I was spending the money regardless...Kimbrel.

That is a huge line for a Wisconsin team that often times struggles to score. It would guess Wisco wins, but yah...close.

I am not sure how you mic up a baseball player in a serious game though. With football players it is easy to wire into their equipment and it is impossible to even tell it is there. It would be kinda cool if they could have playbacks that they filter to make sure it is appropriate like they do in football sometimes...but hard to do when baseball players don't have all the pads to hide it in. I am not a huge fan of mic'ed up players though. They just put on a show because they know they have the mic on. Would be cool if the mic up umpires and coaches though. Would be cool to hear those arguments and the rule explanations live. Players, meh, that doesn't provide much.

Yes because he would decline and shop around elsewhere, obviously. Could always then sign him to a split contract.

Yah, there is simply no way they go with Kratz and think he is going to outhit Pina enough to be worth the defense downgrade. Everyone thinks Kratz (not necessarily people on this forum) think Kratz was so good last year because of a few timely hit. I mean, yeah, I guess by Kratz standards who OPS'd -31 his last time seeing more than a handful of ABs last year was an MVP run. Even having the year of his life Kratz was still notably worse with the bat and everyone though Pina was terrible himself. There just is no way they would go Kratz. Teams contending don't trade their back up catcher to have a big downgrade.

Unless Pina is injured, no, it is not possible.