MrTPlush
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Everything posted by MrTPlush
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I would be a little shocked if the true #6 option is in the bullpen on the MLB squad. Keep him in AAA to stay conditioned as a starter. Woodruff as the #7 guy behind those three seems a little hard to believe too. You are throwing all your eggs into the "spring training numbers" basket. Doubt it works out that way.
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I didn't really understand jumping the gun so fast to sign Sogard to an MLB deal...I don't understand it anymore today. We had a lot to maybe gain not jumping the gun and pretty much nothing if we waited around. I would have bet we could have matched any deal he was offered so I will never get the rush.
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I’m sure front offices keep an eye on rumors much for the same reason we do. Does he read HH19 or our gibberish...ummm, maybe not.
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I agree on the surface, but it's a little more complicated than that. If the Brewers truly believe that 2016 Villar can be recaptured, that is better than anything Walker is going to give you at this point in his career. But if the 2017 version of Villar is who he is, then it makes sense to cut bait and move on. What Walker provides is consistency ... basically a low ceiling and high floor. Villar obviously has a much lower floor, but that ceiling is much higher, even if the chances of getting to that level aren't that great. Starting him is a calculated risk. But I agree that if Walker is signed, it means that the team is giving up on Villar, and one way or another, he'll be gone. I guess Villar could come back to 2016 but the team doesn't really want even that Villar based on their moves. They seem to want professional hitters and Villar even at his limited best is the type of guy to pop up on the first pitch after their starter just loaded the bases. Walker does have a bad back or at least it was last year. If it can last one year though that's not that big a deal because Hiura is on the way. That is why there is no one being brought in so far, right? Huge assumption, massive assumption he will be ready next year.
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Is this for real? If so, can you please provide odds? 50/50 chance this week and 50/50 next week too. He WILL NOT be retiring.
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Broxton getting more interest than Santana?
MrTPlush replied to TURBO's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
If your comps are anywhere near accurate no way Eric Thames is even remotely close to being enough. -
Thinking about it I think it gets announced as pro-rated(at least when I see it) on one year deals. You can’t sign a guy to a half year contract. I think it has to be written up as one year even if it isn’t. So to actually pay a guy $1.5mil for half a year you would have to make it a $3mil contract. The arbitration theory also makes some sense. Maybe not necessary on a Cobb deal.
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That is how they usually announce them as. Wish I could think of a recent example. I don’t think it is fully tagged to your payroll, just what you actually pay is. Not sure why they do it. Maybe for arbitration reasons? If you go to arbitration that team really valued you as a $15mil player not a $7mil player for last years salary. Maybe it is for basic comparison reasons? Not totally sure.
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Probably the first paycheck begins that week. Any day missed beyond the end of March reduces his paycheck by 2 weeks. What do these guys get 13 paychecks in a season? Sign Cobb for 13mil a year that 1st paycheck missed is 1mil. Would be an easy GM decision to tell a player if he's not signed by then the 1st year's offer is reduced the amount of his 1st paycheck. Contracts are already done that way. You sign at the full year amount, but it is pro-rated to how much season is left.
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Broxton getting more interest than Santana?
MrTPlush replied to TURBO's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
The option gives a little value to the acquiring team, but doesn’t really give us more leverage. We don’t need Broxton now and it is incredibly unlikely he is ever useful for us this year. So you really aren’t tricking anyone and sitting at AAA all year isn’t going to increase his value. This will be his peak value most likely. The odds someone pays more at the deadline to have him start is probably not the most likely scenario. Unless the offers are total garbage we are going to trade him before the season at likely peak value. -
Guys...that is just manager talk(much like GM talk). It means nothing, take a breather.
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Are we undervaluing Woodruff??
MrTPlush replied to Fear The Chorizo's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Are people really undervaluing him? Pretty sure most want him as the #5. They want to replace Miley/Suter...not Woodruff. -
So past results shouldn’t be considered when trying to determine how good a pitcher will be? I kind of understand your point but it’s foolish not to look at how good a player has been in the past. Obviously someone can make adjustments but if he’s been flat out bad for three or four years it’s likely that he’s just not that good. No, but some are acting like that is the only thing to consider. The fact the Brewers brought him in because they think they can fix him is completely being ignored. It’s not like they are just being in 2016-2017 Wade Miley and letting him compete. They believe they can get something completely different.
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I don’t care who Cobb pushes out of the rotation. Why? Because I am pretty confident the Brewers will take the better guy for the #5 spot. If they take Miley over Woodruff obviously Woodruff didn’t show more than Miley. I think it is time to stop preaching past results to talk about what will happen in the future. Pitchers make mechanical adjustment etc. all the time.
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[sarcasm]Solid negotiation skills there![/sarcasm]
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The way they get their success on the mound is similar. Obviously Knebel isn't Chapman. Both, however, have control issues that they make up for. Obviously Knebel is going to regress. A 1.74 ERA is pretty nuts. Even a big regression leaves him as a really really good closer.
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Aroldis Chapman disagrees with your assessment about control. Projections? Projections? Is that your argument?
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Mostly because we will have effectively maxed out the payroll at that point.
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I just went back and checked. I could not find a single 4th round pick we drafted that had 1 WAR in their entire career. Most never hit the majors or had a negative career WAR. I stopped when I got to another century. The bonus pool money is also painfully overrated, especially for the fourth round. That is a grand $450k. If you go hugely underslot there that should give you a staggering $100k-$200k to throw around. That is not going to help you get much. Probably another 4th round talent later on that will also do nothing.
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Maybe the Orioles. I can't imagine the Brewers care even a little bit about the Rays compensation. Yah, this rumor doesn’t make a ton of sense. Maybe the deals are below $50mil, but the reason might have gotten lost in translation.
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If you build the team to allow it. He doesn’t go deep into games intentionally and I doubt that really changes. If you have a deep bullpen to carry the extra innings it could be pretty effective. We do plan on going with the 8 man pen so that would work in his favor. If the pen ends up not being deep though it is not going to work out very well for us.
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Very possible those deals are notably below $50mil total. MLBTR predicted 4/$48mil so a 3/$49.99mil deal would sound pretty good. Honestly if that was the case I think he would sign in a heartbeat. He might be sitting on 3/$36mil type offers vs. $50mil contracts. Are teams really that motivated to make sure the Rays don’t get a pick though?
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Yup, weird how that works. The goal is to win a World Series and some people want to unload one of the biggest pieces to a postseason run. Deep bullpens and elite arms can make you a happy person come October. You have to take risks to win it all. We are competing and need to keep our guys no matter what, essentially. He could regress, as could Shaw, Thames, Cain, Anderson, Nelson, etc. If you are honestly trying to win a World Series trading Knebel is pretty darn stupid. Not like we have time to replace him via FA anymore.
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Braun scooped a ball with his OF glove and Brewers now comfortable he will be gold Glover with 1B mitt. Thames no longer needed.
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Not hard to make an educated guess... But a bad one at that as it has been reported he is just making a statement.