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ZBTMP

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  1. ZBTMP
    I would be surprised if assets making 6 figures cleared waivers. Usually only contracts that would require ownership review and approval or contracts with negative value. The playoff odds can still swing pretty wildly in the next 4 days. If the Brewers only win 1 of the next 4 and can get a prospect of close to Cordell value and a position of less depth and potentially not rule 5 eligible, it would make a lot of sense to me to pull the trigger in what would essentially be a 3 way trade. He said moved not clear waivers. Since he is a rental only a team competing would be likely to claim him. If he pitches well we could probably get a minor piece back from said team. Well sure, we could cut him at any time, but he is unlikely to make it through to any “buyers” on waivers and the first team with a non-zero playoff probability would be silly not to block him. There is even incentive for noncontenders to claim him and limit the market as he costs pennies above any replacement. I would be shocked if a reliever with a sub 3 FIP and making under 1 mil ever was traded after July 31st.
  2. ZBTMP
    I would be surprised if assets making 6 figures cleared waivers. Usually only contracts that would require ownership review and approval or contracts with negative value. The playoff odds can still swing pretty wildly in the next 4 days. If the Brewers only win 1 of the next 4 and can get a prospect of close to Cordell value and a position of less depth and potentially not rule 5 eligible, it would make a lot of sense to me to pull the trigger in what would essentially be a 3 way trade.
  3. ZBTMP
    I don't know what time you are supposed to decide a prospect is "ready", but Id speculate Stearns at some point knew he had to make a roster move, thought about it and waited until the last second possible to make the decision. I know the general thought is Brinson will need an adjustment period that was reinforced by his brief trial earlier this year, but Im not convinced. He could be a substantial upgrade the rest of the way. He seemed to figure out the K:BB after he went back down and is literally destroying the baseball. Nothing in baseball is certain but we just got a substantial upgrade at a position in which we are 27th in WRC and 29th in WAR.
  4. ZBTMP
    Baseball Prospectus has the Brewers playoff odds at ~25%. Who is right? Which number are we using to make decisions? Given that we have 2 playoff appearances in 35 seasons, I’m going to say that is better odds than you’d expect in any given year. If the Brewers decide to buy, Im going to say it is unlikely to be moronic; but a deeper analysis that whatever shortterm gains are valuable enough to exceed whatever prospect or monetary capital are given up. I have enough faith in Stearns in that regard. And Im not a particularly big Stearns fan so far based off his inaction to correct the development system underperformance. I guess that is why you shouldnt keep the old front office employed after you relieve them of there duties.
  5. ZBTMP
    So the purpose of this thread is there is a prime selling point between failing and failed prospect that the Brewers should do what they can to unload? The Brewers should value performance and devalue potential in prospects below AA at a greater level relative to 29 other ballclubs? Or that Erceg, Diaz, Clark, and Ray specifically are all as valuable as they will ever be? Until someone can show me a deeper analysis, I am going to stay under the strategy that prospects are like stocks. Some will be worthless, there are ups and downs, but we are in it for the longhaul and need to invest as heavily as it makes sense to do so in relation to our relative probabilities of winning a championship at any given time.
  6. ZBTMP
    25) Phil Bickford The guy smoked weed, he didn’t exactly stick up the Kwik Trip. Also I cannot be convinced that Taylor Williams isn’t a top 30 prospect not that there is anything wrong with Je’von Ward or Larry Ernesto but...
  7. ZBTMP
    The Brewers are 7 games over .500 and in first place! Also, the Cubs are mathematically very likely to lose again at some point this season.
  8. ZBTMP
    My hope is it is based on a deeper analysis and not necessarily Minasian saying he could use some 18 year olds. I’m not opposed to it being an annual strategy. Collectively, as competitive as MLB baseball and amateur scouting, you’d presume that organizations are getting better at identifying talents and earlier. They seem to be getting better at managing bonus pools too. That would mean less talents are getting to the college game every year. So shifting to getting players younger makes sense if you feel like you have a strong system of identifying traits that correlate to success. Obviously, this is coming from my thoughts and not backed by any hard data, but it seems reasonable. Take Jordan Yamamoto. Katoh’s flawed but unbiased projection system had him at 2.2 WAR coming into this season (and I doubt he has diminished that much). That would be top 15 in all of NCAA and likely at least a 3rd round pick. Does his scouting report really read all that much different than Alex Lange’s? Yamamoto has obviously worked out better than say Gentry Fortuno, and Mike Fiers and Brandon Woodruff show good college players and can still be had late, but if the Brewers have data showing high school players rated 200+ sign rate+breakout rate is exceeding college players rated 200+, why not?
  9. ZBTMP
    The Brewers signed the most high school picks and left the 3rd least amount of money on the table according to here. Thier table seems to have missed Koenig, Bradshaw, Crochet, Jacobsen, and Kaufman so Im not positive to its accuracy.
  10. ZBTMP
    Jimmy’s Best Months with over 10 IP July17: 31.9 K% 26.4 K%-BB% June17: 30.3 K% 24.9 K%-BB% May17: 27.4 K% 22.1 K%-BB% July15: 23.4 K% 14.6 K%-BB% May16 20.9 K% 12.3 K%-BB% Jimmy has never flashed anything close to this before, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing or de-legitimizing. To me it makes it more likely that there actually has been skill growth. Nobody can say for certain what will happen going forward, but the Jimmy Nelson of the last 3 months can pitch for any team in baseball.
  11. ZBTMP
    Can you define for me what is not a "major" disappointment? If a 20% walk rate and a 125 wRC+ as a 20 year old in the leagues most pitcher friendly park (while stealing 23 of 26) is a "major" disappointment, Im not what will make you happy. Im glad Im not your son.
  12. ZBTMP
    Conlon is ranked below Bullock, Ward, and Castillo by BA without knowing any health issues. Even if the Brewers have him legitimately as a 4th round talent before medicals given the expected odds of making the majors, that’s probably not much more than 1-2 million in value. Im all for the Brewers signing him, but its unlikely to be a savvy value play unless he is the winning lottery ticket.
  13. ZBTMP
    Regardless of what happens this season, the Cubs are still a better bet than the Brewers for the foreseeable future. They now have 5 of the top 50 assets in baseball. At a certain point in time however, the value produced by Eloy Jimenez and Dylan Cease has the potential to exceed the value of Jose Quintana’s team control to the Cubs. At that point in time, the Brewers should be trending toward more major league talent than they will have in 2018. So in that regard this trade isn’t a bad thing for the Brewers. The Brewers are highly unlikely to match that 5 player core at any point in the immediate future, but they can be better over the next 20 players on the roster. The way to achieve that is to acquire as much talent as possible so you increase the odds that more of them play to the high end of their potential. As for the immediate, Pina, Shaw, Arcia and Thames have match Contreras, Bryant, Russell, and Rizzo nearly step for step. Can they do that over 71 more games is still the question that has the most potential to decide this race. That answer has gotten a lot less definitive over the last 3.5 months.
  14. ZBTMP
    Next time I should ask for more...
  15. ZBTMP
    Bullock (5th-6th round talent) and Morales (top 500 prospect who just started pitching) is a nice final haul. Wanted Castillo as a toolsy, lightning fast, cold weather prospect but I can't imagine much left in the pool at this point. Also, thanks to those providing the updates for those of us who aren't twitter adept
  16. ZBTMP
    If he's a free agent, anyone can sign him for whatever they want without restrictions. You sure this is the case or does he have UDFA signing restrictions (the same as any 11+ rounder)? The whole story is missing some information as the Rays think they are getting the pick back next year.
  17. ZBTMP
    In general, the Sky Sox have been a better team at home than on the road. Some of Cooper's split difference is just noise. Certainly park factors need to be accounted for, but you cant completely dismiss Cooper's season. His road splits are still better than Aguilar's season last year FWIW. Not to be a debbie downer, but Aguilar's sample size is about the same a Jason Rogers when we dealt him. Not sure he has proven much more other than he can be a useful bench bat.
  18. ZBTMP
    Would probably do this trade from the Brewers perspective and like the general concept of moving 1st base depth for pitching if available. However not sure why we are cutting Drake. Since the start of June he has a 3.18 ERA and a 12/0 K/BB ratio.
  19. ZBTMP
    So I guess teams can divert 75% of bonus funds on Mexican League players to their parent club so his bonus is 25% of the 1 million.
  20. ZBTMP
    Wilkerson is Rule 5 eligible this offseason so the Brewers may want to determine if he can get MLB hitters out before that point. As an ardent defender of Michael Reed, even I must concede his 40 man spot and future in this organization is tenuous at best. Yadiel Rivera still hits like a pitcher and is in witness protection. The Brewers have options to find a roster spot.
  21. ZBTMP
    We shall see if he makes his start tonight in Biloxi, but my guess is Wilkerson gets the call. There is a chance he might actually do quite well.
  22. ZBTMP
    A quick peruse of the BA rankings gives me this: Bullock -203 Castillo -232 Ward -233 Santana -264 Morales -469 Unless they are bluffing for leverage or have a sudden teenage change of heart: Campbell -111 Jacobsen -154 Im sure these rankings don’t mirror the Brewers internally (ex: they probably like Lazar as a top 500 prospect to take him in round 11), but I’m sure some combination of rankings, draft round, strength of commitment, etc. will drive how the Brewers approach signing them. I'd speculate that figure out what the bonus is for that pick #, add 30-40% and that probably gets you to the ballpark.
  23. ZBTMP
    (Fixed the above for you.) You really cannot see that Garza was injured in 2015 and 2016, and even so put up 1.4 fWAR in 2016? As for how much he's paid, it has been estimated that 1 WAR in free agency is worth $7-9M. Taking the midpoint, he was worth $11.2M last year and was paid $12.5M. Free agent starting pitching is expensive; please accept that reality. I'm sorry, but this idea that Garza "sucks" is just patently false. And if Garza puts up a 4.25 ERA over the next month and a half... well, that's the equivalent of a low #2/high #3 starter because a 4.25 ERA, among players with at least 60 IP in the NL, would currently rank 26th. I'm sorry if the stats don't fit your narrative. Garza wasn't really excessively injured, he was old and no longer effective in 2015 and 2016. -1.7 is his bWAR over that time which is a better indicator of the value the Brewers got. FWAR is exclusively FIP, which I am fine with a predictive metric but it has flaws and isn't really an encompassing indicator of the value the Brewers got. 4.25 is 90% IMO. Both fangraphs projection systems has his ERA over 5 for the remainder of the season which well, sucks and could be had by a non-roster invitee in spring training and the Brewers have a half dozen options at least that project better.
  24. ZBTMP
    At the time of the criticism Garza had given up 3 ERs in 3 innings and a lead off double in the 4th without punching out a batter. I don't think the criticism was excessive. Who's Chris? You really cannot see the difference between the angst of Davies and Garza? Really? Garza is 33 and has been worth -1.7 WAR since the start of 2015. Davies has still been worth 3 WAR over that same time period. Davies is coming of an age 23 season worth 2.3 WAR. Garza is a liability who's best case scenario for the Brewers is something like 4.25 ERA over the next month and a half and someone saves us a million dollars to take him on before the waiver deadline. If the season were to end now and he were a free agent he wouldn't be getting a MLB contract. Davies upside is something like 12 WAR, sub 4 ERA, 900 innings over the next 4 1/2 seasons. He wouldnt make it past the first team if he were DFA'd today. If the Brewers want to keep pitching Garza because he is a stable option, fine. But the Brewers need to do what is best for Davies development. If they feel that is working out his struggles against MLB hitters, Im not going to argue with that.
  25. ZBTMP
    Surprised Ponce hasnt gotten moved up. Not the most exciting profile, but he will likely help the mlb club at some point and they need to bump him closer to keep his ETA and development on track.
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