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MKE81

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Everything posted by MKE81

  1. Khris Davis will be traded and Braun moved to LF with Santana taking over RF. There is absolutely no reason to have Santana in AAA
  2. There's a ton of legit GMs in here. Just ask them what they think of a player and if they don't like their WAR then that player is useless and the GM sucks. These guys don't even need eyeballs because WAR says it all
  3. When will you people stop drooling over WAR? You act as if that is the end-all be-all when it comes to a player's value. Braun has outperformed Gordon in all aspects offensively his entire career, including last year, outside of 2013 (injury/suspension) and 2014 (coming back from surgery). How convenient you failed to mention the issues surrounding 2 of those 4yrs. But, but, but...fangraphs says his Defensive WAR is XYZ. Laughable (defensive war is literally laughable at this point). Braun was a solid LF and he's an average RF. Statistically, Braun's 2012 6.8 WAR absolutely destroys Gordon's 2014 6.6 WAR season - there isn't one person that would take Gordon's 2014 over Braun's 2012. Yet their WARs were essentially the same. Gordon's highest WAR was 2011 (7.1) and even though he had 13 more ABs than Braun did in his 2012 season, Braun still posted higher numbers in runs, hits, HR, rbi, SB, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS with fewer Ks (30/30 season - Gordon's never even had a 20/20 season) and would have easily been named MVP if it wasn't for the leak and him being tied to PEDs. Gordon's stats the past 3yrs (all-star years) are worse than his previous 2yrs (2011 and 2012) when he wasn't even an all-star and where he had 2 of his highest 3 WAR seasons. Gordon's more highly regarded, in your opinion, because of Braun's roid suspension and nothing else. If Gordon ends up around 20M/yr the Brewers will be happy knowing they have a better player in the same contract (same will be said for a lot of other player's starting to get paid more than Braun as well in the next couple years)
  4. For sure Braun is probably a last ditch option after FA. The problem I see if the fact his contract is pretty close to market value. He is for the most part fairly comparable to Alex Gordon overall at this point and most think Gordon will fall around that 5/$100mil point. Add the injury concerns to a close to market contract does anyone really offer enough to convince the Brewers to part with, sadly, one of their most popular players? Maybe if they really want to unload him and save the money, but not so sure they are that motivated. I guess the most realistic way I see the Brewers trading him is if they eat some cash so they can actually get some decent players back. I just don't see it happening as a salary dump type deal. Alex Gordon has never been and will never be comparable to Braun. Braun is better at everything except defense (he's above average in RF and solid in LF). He was a bad month away from 297/367 this past year posting 25/24. At most there were a couple others who accomplished that. The production he'll give the next 5yrs, if still here, will be better than others with that same contract or those who are paid more. I'm not against trading him if the deal is right but he's still an all-star caliber player.
  5. Sweet. I get to read complaints about Melvin now for his trades and such while your determining factor for Segura is simply WAR. A recent Ivy League grad, who is now in the Indians front office, saw the impact of using analytics in today's game rating players so decided to write his thesis rating GMs performance over the past 10yrs using analytics solely based on transactions outside of the draft (FA signings, trades). Melvin was Top 5. I love when people sit around and cite WAR as almost the end-all-be-all in determining a player's value
  6. We could have traded for DJ Peterson, the rumored player, recently ranked in the top 100 prospects and a 1st round pick as "buy low." Remember when we traded for the Orioles' #5 prospect and now he's probably never going to make it past AA? DJ Peterson, as a buy low candidate, had an OPS of around .600 last year. What if he doesn't recover his value that much? Now he's completely unranked and a finished product at age 24 or 25. The chances of an upper-level, ranked minors player staying ranked/hitting the majors is higher, of course. How much higher I think is being overrated. At least the caliber of prospect being offered for Lind, that is. First it didnt have to be an upper minors guy, lower minors guys are ranked too! nicky delmonico is entirely different, he was NEVER regarded like DJ peterson. He also hit 12 homeruns in high A. DJ Peterson hit 31(!!!), very few players have that type of ability. Delmonico then started doing meth.... lets assume no player has the meth addiction variable come into play. hes clean, playing for the whitesox, played in the AFL (and won an award) and is a prospect again. Peterson followed up 31HR with 7HR (granted he had 100 less ABs). But what's your point? It's beyond obvious that Stearns knew he was getting Cecchini for next to nothing therefore instead of trading for Peterson he decided to stack the lower level with 3 young dudes who possess pitchability with room to improve their fastball speed as well as continue to develop their secondary pitches. All 3 already pound the zone to begin with. If you don't think the Brewers did extensive scouting on these guys then you're crazy. People, in general, need to stop assuming that any team can just walk outside and sign 3 teenagers that are identical to these 3. Not a lot of 18-19yr olds possess this kind of pitchability and command of their pitchers. They see more upside in these 3 guys than they do others. And knowing he's getting Cecchini made this decision that much easier instead of shopping Lind for Peterson or similar level dudes. Maybe Seattle did not want to give up the other top draft pick pitchers that others have listed (nick, dylan, etc). Maybe Stearns preferred the 3 he got over those. We don't know. Too many on this board assume they know what's best because the think their access to fangraphs, top prospect rankings, etc is equivalent to the same info Stearns and his decision makers have. Combine that with the large majority on this board over-inflating the value of our players nonstop and you have nothing but negativity.
  7. I just don't see the guys acquired as high reward types. Which combined with their high risk makes it an underwhelming deal. We'll know a lot more next year though. Also don't knock average. An average first baseman might have done wonders in 2013 or 2014. No team fields 8 All Stars and an Ace every game. Arguably they wasted prime years of Grienke, Gomez, Lucroy, and Braun by not having enough average players. I agree this seems like a high risk, low reward trade. If given the choice I'd rather have DJ Peterson than these 3. Peterson isn't going to light the league on fire, but he's probably a corner IF platoon bat which does have value especially for a small market team. So you want Peterson and zero young pitchers with pitchability and upside OVER Cecchini and 3 young pitchers with pitchability and upside? Wow
  8. This board gets more and more comical. Lawrie a poor man's Sheffield. Too funny. Sheffield was a 2x All-Star before he turned 25. His career BA is around 20pts below Lawrie's career OBP at this point. Lawrie is exactly who the Brewers thought he'd be. An average every day player and an ego maniac (love when people strictly cite a player's WAR as if that's the be-all-end-all regarding a player's worth). Maybe Lawrie does mature with age. But he still won't come close to sniffing a Sheffield career. He's a poor man's Cirillo at this point
  9. Exactly. I'm pretty sure nobody heard of Orlando Arcia when he was a 16 year old playing the DSL, unless you were reading the DSL box scores and the Minor League forum. This is a very knowledgeable board and I would say many, if not the majority, of posters on this board were not even aware of him at that time. But is it really? All I read are proposals that over-inflate the value of the Brewers players. This board "believes" they're knowledgeable. There wasn't one person that posted a response even remotely close to the return in this Lind trade. EVERY proposal was for their top tiered younger pitchers or higher level position players. The LARGE majority of comments since this trade all cry about how this was horrendous. They do so because they don't have a clue how to value players correctly nor how to evaluate talent they seek nor how a successful small/mid market team rebuilds top down. They can't find any scouting info on these three players so it's automatically a horrendous trade because they can't drool over a "scouting report", "projection", "top prospects" lists, etc while simply citing Lind was a 3 WAR player so we should have solely landed known commodities in return. I'm not saying I'm the opposite of this but I'm not going to complain when I know extremely little about these players. I'm still learning how Stearns is operating and what his mind set is (ie how he's going about rebuilding this entire organization). If Stearns trades Khris Davis, which he absolutely should, I can't wait to read those responses when some of you find out his actual worth. A guy some people here speak highly of when he's had 3 productive months offensively the past 2 years (mind you with a 265/330 line as well) while having an absolutely horrendous arm allowing runners to take advantage and move 1st to 3rd on balls hit right at him
  10. Who's arguing? It's called voicing an opinion and engaging in conversation. All I've tead is "could" and "has a chance" to be a legit MLB SP. That also means there's a chance he won't make a rotation. I don't subscrine to the logic of running a SP as long as possible before it doesn't work out. If it takes an org 5yrs before they figure it out then they're not good at what they do. I mentioned Hellweg because I've always thought he should have been out of the pen since he was acquired. And now he's out of the org because of arm issues. Ponce has average command of his pitches. That's not good. He's rated so highly right now due to being a 2nd rd pick and having a good year at A ball. Every year there are guys rated highly or project to be this and that. Ponce most likely isn't going to be an ace. Hader and Lopez are next up. Houser didn't dominate as a SP when came over but did pitch well. He also got rocked every year prior to the trade. He's a reliever in my opinion. Building a bullpen international that can make an impact at the MLB level is just as important as building strong SPs and position players. 25 spots on a team that all matter. There's nothing wrong with being moved to the pen. Forgive me if I don't drool over "projections" by people who are wrong plenty often
  11. I know you said without question, but huh? Is it just because he throws hard in short stints or had shoulder soreness last spring? I haven't seen any indication or scouting report that questions his projection as a starter. I think he should be out of the pen as he'll be more effective and have a longer career. Can spot start if needed as would be capable. But out of the pen he was 15ip, 11h, 0er, 15K, 1bb in A ball. He also pitched very well starting in A having a 2.30era outside of his one terrible start. He has better command out of the pen (9bb in 31ip in A as SP) as well. This is obviously a small sample size given it's his first season but his command has been avg or so as a starter even in college even though I'd assume he'd improve upon that as he grows as a professional. Throws low 90s consistently as starter but out of the pen can stay at 95-97 and with four pitchers makes him even more dangerous. If his small injuries arise as he develops those potentially could be eased with a move to the pen as well. Lot of guys are projected as long-term mid-rotation starters but by the time they're ready for MLB should be moved to the pen (ie Hellweg). I just feel he's better suited there along with Houser and some others. There needs to be more Wade Davis types - decent SPs but have the stuff to be extremely effective out of the pen thus having better/longer careers
  12. Jericho on Lind extension.... I guess you want Mark Reynolds/Overbay, Juan Francisco/A.Gonzalez/Y. Betancourt/Maldonado types to cover 1b until you believe the team will compete again with whomever plays 1b somewhere in between Lind/Hart value and the others above. I'll take the known commodity and extend him until theres the future. Lind's removal means having no known 1b of his ability. Learn from the mistakes. As this is a team in rebuild, it can always trade Lind away when some true heir apparent appears. TPlush on Lucroy trade.... A nice package and being blown away I think is close probably in both what you and I would take in Lucroy. I may have an added grade to the final prospect we get over yours but the first piece is likely the same. Lucroy's contract is so cheap, I don't see his trade value declining regardless of performance. Health would be the concern only. Brew4u on Lind comment This concern on age. He's Braun's age who keeps being penciled in as 1b to become. So we'll take Braun at the same age through 2020 but Lind we must rid of by 2016 season close.? Find me the next 1b that's going to produce at a .797OPS as Lind has for his career and I'll be comfortable with departing with him. We're so quick to trade away Lind/Lucroy in opinion and my issue is two major positions filled with +positive players removed only opens a big hole to fill once again at both positions. 1b to me is a big position that needs to be filled with a big bat. That's why I'd rather extend Lind. His bat at this moment isn't filled. Lucroy I'd give up easier but again on a blown away trade offer. See, I actually believe he's very good. I'm not concerned about his future performance, he'll be fine and a good producer. The fear is for him to be terrible. Probably because of recent history of the Marcum's, Suppan's, Lohse et al. I'm not voicing to extend him. But believe we'll find a trade partner with a killer offer between now and the 2017 Trade deadline. Just know we don't have a catcher who'll perform 1WAR on the team as Lucroy did on this terrible season of his. There isn't one in the pipelines. I understand where you're coming from but Braun can easily walk into the 1b spot right now with his career .911 OPS! Braun's a known commodity and can pick the ball just fine (throwing was his issue and 1b doesn't have snowball fights like the other side of the diamond). He's also in much better shape than Lind and brings a 25/25 to that position if he remains healthy for a full season (there was zero of those in MLB this past year at 1b). Braun is already an upgrade at 1b. There's a reason AL teams are showing a lot of interest in Lind (DH). I like Lind and wouldn't gripe if he was kept I just don't understand extending him when someone like Braun can transition to 1b given the influx of talent in the OF in our system coming up very soon. Lucroy is a very good player for his position. But he turns 30 this year and it's only a matter of time before his position catches up with him and he doesn't have the bat for a 1b/DH. I don't see the logic in extending him into 2020 as he'll be a 35yr old catcher at a point we should be very competitive. With 2016 being a season we won't compete for a playoff spot I see no reason to keep him especially if you get a strong offer in exchange. Trading Lind, Lucroy, Davis, Segura (potentially Will Smith, Peralta, etc) could net us a lot of great prospects/current MLB guys to fill the remaining question marks (3b, 2b, C) and then some. It just makes the most sense to me. All of this is assuming nobody wants to take on Braun's contract as not opposed to trading him (or anyone actually).
  13. Neither of those deals would ever happen. That rotation also has a 0% chance of happening for this season outside of Jungmann and Davies being in it. Another person mentioned Gallo not being guaranteed to produce like Davis already has - really? Davis needs to be traded solely based on his arm. Gallo is guaranteed to hit as many HRs, if not more, playing a position of need vs a position we are stacked at (OF). If you can't trade Braun move him to 1b for 5yrs. That eliminates a position of need internally allowing us to focus on 3b/C (maybe 2b). Rotation has good young talent but needs to be bolstered still.
  14. Extending Lind and Lucroy would be terrible decisions. Lind needs to be traded between now and the all-star break and Lucroy needs to be traded before spring training. With our stock pile of OFs coming up in the next year or so we don't need Braun in the OF and given it'll be difficult to trade him with his contract the most logical decision would be moving him to 1b once Lind is traded. He can finish his career at that position where I think he'll actually be pretty good. Fielding was never his issue and 1b doesn't sling it around the diamond too much. That locks up a corner IF spot for 5yrs and allows Stearns to focus on other positions of need long-term in the Lind and Lucroy deals (2b, 3b and C). I don't understand why TX would trade Gallo in general given his power potential and being in the AL - Profar makes more sense but they love Beltre/Fielder/Moreland. However, if TX is willing to part with Gallo I'd absolutely make that happen. 2b is a spot we can plug Villar/Rivera and be just fine given the rest of the team in 2017 would be Gallo/Arcia/Braun in IF with LF/Phillips/Santana in OF. I personally like a Reed-type taking over LF as he's strong defensively, has speed, strong plate discipline and knows how to get on base (this last point is why I'd choose him, right now, over Taylor/Coulter). Trent Clark is LF long-term if he keeps pace. Lind and Khris Davis trades can net a catching prospect and it's not difficult to find a veteran on the cheap to plug that hole. That doesn't even include whatever other prospects come back in return in those trades mentioned along with trading Segura, Scooter and potentially Peralta (a strong reliever would obviously be gone in a deal as well). In a couple years you could look at Nelson, Hader, Lopez, Jungmann, Davis for a rotation with other options via trade or packaging prospects (or the aforementioned starters).
  15. Sneed has a 0% chance of cracking our rotation but might have found a spot in the pen but that would depend on a lot of variables. Our pen is currently strong and Sneed would have to end up earning a spot over guys like Suter, Barrios, Houser, Ponce, Magnifico, etc by the time he's ready (Suter, Houser, Ponce should be moved to the pen full time without question). Sneed hasn't even pitched in AA yet and in return we get a guy in Villar who has spent a full season's worth of time at the MLB level already. A guy who is already our top backup IF who brings versatility, defense, arm, speed, pop. He's well-rounded and even though he'll start this year and maybe in 2017 he would be a very strong player off the bench. Something we've lacked for a while now.
  16. Flores was a good value trade. Sardinas will be the same player in 5yrs as he is today. He's a solid defender swinging a noodle at the plate. He's a dime a dozen and doesn't make this team better off the bench and certainly isn't as versatile as Villar, or even Herrera. A player like Flores can make an impact off the bench, or filling in somewhat regularly, given his spray approach and understanding of the strike zone while playing strong defense. Those are HUGE quality attributes this team has sorely been lacking off the bench and even with the starters (ie Khris Davis). Plus he's a lefty and can play all OF spots. With Arcia coming up soon enough and Villar here now there's no reason to have a guy like Sardinas on the roster.
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