MKE81

100% agree he was re-evaluated and entered the system at 9 as a result. You mentioned Woodruff, he's still 25-26 on our list and he's very likely to be a Top 10 once they're re-evaluated and updated (although Hader sat at 14 last year even after strong performances). Lara should be nowhere near the Top 10 either given the abundance of talent in this system, especially the Top 20. He should be mid-20 given his production at his age level.

Goforth isn't on the 40. But both provide depth at AAA and can potentially contribute at the MLB level compared to a 22yr old who would have started in A+ next year and didn't dominate A ball. There are 40 spots. 25 comprise the MLB team. The other 15 will comprise a combination of top talent and those performing at the upper levels that can step in and contribute immediately or in the very near future including when injuries occur (Brinson, Hader, Phillips, Cordell, Williams, Magnifico, Lopez, Reed, etc). If he had the stuff of a Taylor Williams he'd most likely be on the 40. Guys like Goforth, Scahill are easily replaced by better options that come along and contribute to the MLB team. If Diaz is on the 40 over them it can become an issue now and moving forward.

Caleb Smith was traded to the Cubs so we don't have him and still have a spot open on the 40. I have no problem leaving Diaz unprotected. Sure I'd rather protect him than Scahill or others but he was under one year young for the A level and was just solid as a starter and not good at all as a reliever, where he might end up (granted he's still 3yrs away so that part can develop). He has a plus fastball and average or worse with everything else including control plus he had arm surgery in 2015 I believe (or an arm injury). I don't think he's anyone you lose sleep over right now as a potential legitimate contributor since he's so far away and already had arm issues. If he had stuff like Taylor Williams he would have been protected. Everyone thought Wang was gone for sure and he's still sitting in AAA, which is good for for the org. Diaz finished 29th in the poll on this board and you can knock that down to 30 for sure with Dubon added and potentially even 31 for Pennington.

I actually wasn't using it to say Eaton was better offensively. I used it to show Braun's one plus side isn't a huge plus over Eaton. Then when you take all the other things into consideration(all of which Eaton is much more superior in) he is the obvious choice. I did question who was better offensively in the future, but that is only because Braun is very unpredictable moving forward and could decline. Eaton on the other hand is 28 and has put up a consistent 4+ oWAR three years straight so I would expect that at minimum going forward. Plush, don't you know that baseball players only play on offense? Defense, age, contract, etc is all irrelevant. Everybody knows this. Get with the program (I hope my sarcasm is pretty obvious)

Eaton is half the price and way younger. Ryan Braun is a bit better offensively, but Eaton makes up for any gap with his defense. Eaton is in his prime while Braun is likely to decline. I can't understand why anyone would even think about wanting Braun over Eaton. Honestly you can use any way to grade out the two players and Eaton>Braun. It is a no brainer in my opinion. Seems like the people getting paid to run baseball teams for real also think that too. We probably couldn't have even gotten Reynoldo Lopez for Braun, but Eaton got a Top 5 MLB Prospect plus Lopez plus a 1st round selection. Lets put 2 and 2 together. Stop making sense. Everyone knows that people on this board have the best pulse on everything know to man. People can't even analyze the Thornburg deal how can you expect that to happen here. I love that people are saying analytics are wrong. My goodness

You're right, Shaw was brutal in the 2nd half. But why doesn't his first half count for anything (2/3 of his ABs came first half)? Why doesn't his 2015 count? Or his age for that matter? There's value in a player like him. Regarding your last comment, so those are the only two scenarios that can play out? Given Thornburg's career you have no idea which guy you're going to see moving forward. He could be a 2.2 ERA, 2.8 ERA or even injure his elbow again. There's risk associated with him. If Shaw provides value at 3b and Dubon becomes a valuable MLB middle IF in 1.5-2yrs then we landed 2 MLB players for 1. There's value alone in landing a starting MLB 3b over a certain prospect.

I don't understand how you wouldn't see that would bug someone during your rant. by rant you mean providing a reality check? this board, in general, overrates almost every Brewers player on the trading block. look no further than the deals proposed that involve any Brewer who might be traded. Thornburg was great this year as a late inning reliever then was amazing as a closer for 2 months. and people "believe", present day, he's equal to or worth more than Jeffress/Smith deals - players who had a 3yr+ track record of very good performance (better than Thornburg overall). then take into account other variables surrounding Thornburg (ie medical history) as well as the present day market. yes, Stearns most likely could have got a guy inside the top 100 right now but ignoring any other option to improve your mlb team and your system at the same time is absurd. needing to see "top 100" in front of a guy blows my mind. you don't need to simply get a top 100 in order to have a good trade, especially when you can land a starting MLB 3b (which also has a domino affect in allowing other pieces to shift around on the mlb team making us better overall), a highly regarded SS prospect among scouts who is no doubt a tad outside the top 100 and a lottery ticket who is much more talented than the round he was drafted in. so, again, i don't understand how people are underwhelmed by his. what i do understand is this board has tunnel vision

people have referenced red sox fans liking-loving this trade. they should. they get a very good setup man for 3yrs at a low cost for his production while giving up pieces that don't significantly impact the mlb roster or the pipeline - they dealt from a position of depth. they still have panda at 3b and their middle IF is set for years to come. but the vast majority of what i've read from sox fans is they thought they overpaid for a reliever who they don't know if he'll even continue his dominant performance from this past year because he has no track record of pitching at that level previously combined with injuries in 2 of the past 3yrs. additionally, thornburg isn't elite. elite relievers do it for several years, not 4 months (he had a 3.22 ERA heading into June last year). 2013 as a reliever he had a 3.04 ERA with 5.3 K/9 ratio. he had injuries in 2014, 2015 and was definitely a solid pen arm with 9 K/9 ratio but nothing truly jumps off the page for him as a reliever heading into 2016 even though we knew he had good stuff. he took a huge step forward this year. posted a 2.32 ERA as a 7th/8th inning guy with a 12 K/9 ratio before dominating as a closer (was awful final 4 appearances though). history has shown that people like him will regress. i see him sitting in the greater 2.7 ERA area with a double digit K/9 ratio, which is very good but that's not elite. will smith isn't a good comparison either. smith had a track record of health and strong performance as a reliever with ERAs the past 4yrs of 2.45, 3.7, 2.7, 3.35 - he was killing it in 2014 and was abused in his usage so his 3.7 ERA doesn't tell the entire story (thornburg had a tad bit of that as well at one point). last year he had the injury and didn't seem like himself for the most part with us but had a 2.95 ERA with Giants. he's always had a 11-12 K/9 ratio. and he's a lefty, who has also been very tough on lefties but gets out both sides of the plate. and he went to a playoff contending team at the deadline in a white hot reliever market (the current market isn't the same as the deadline market). a very solid setup man with very real injury concerns moving forward who doesn't have a track record of elite performance brought us 3 players + potentially another. Shaw - a MLB starting 3b (who can also play 1b, LF) with a good glove and 20HR power from the left side who's controllable for 5yrs. there is nothing wrong with being an average MLB starter. WS teams have them too. they still provide value. IF everyone in our pipeline emerges he would turn into a very valuable versatile bench player or if he kills it he can bring back value in a trade. his presence also allows Villar to move to 2b, thus creating a much better defensive unit, while also keeping Perez in his super utility role where he holds great value as a player. Dubon - 22yr old who had great success in 250 AB in AA this past year who's hit very well at every level thus far. a player all scouts say has the potential to be an above average MLB defensive SS while having excellent bat to ball skills. he grades out above average in all tools other than power. that's a potential starting MLB SS right there (worst case he's a better version of Perez but people talk about him as if he's a solid every day player). Pennington - coming out of HS was projected to go 20+ rounds higher than he did given his TJ. will develop as a starter but he'll end up in the pen throwing 96-98 with an above average curve. he has a MLB arm he just needs to continue to develop and become consistent in pounding the zone. how many pitchers are in our system that throw 94-98 as a starter (96-98 as a reliever)? he's young and now back at full health so this should be a big year for him in appleton. i just don't understand how people are underwhelmed at this.

If Villar repeats he'll bring an excellent haul. We don't need to move him either. Thornburg was going to be traded by the deadline this year anyway. Villar doesn't need to be traded until before the 2019 season in which a team would still get him for 2yrs before FA. I think they trade him next off-season or deadline 2018 as Dubon could be up by then for that 2nd half IF he continues his progression.

That would be such a Melvin move. Solarte isn't a bad 3B option but it doesn't make any sense for the Brewers to give up any actual prospects for him. I'm in the same boat as you. He's a decent 3b option and you don't give up any real value. If it's taking Cordell/Williams or Nottingham/Williams or better then I laugh and hang up the phone. I think Cordell is underrated in general and definitely within our system considering he can actually stick in CF defensively and has a power/speed combo while making good contact consistently. He's average/above average in all tools except speed (plus). No way you give up Cordell for Solarte let alone adding Williams in with that. The Padres have Luis Sardinas as their starting SS on the depth chart. Their entire rotation is comprised of 4-5's and 2-3 of them are very young. Another 2 will miss the season due to TJ. Their CF isn't good. Their current 2b profiles more as a 3b with a power bat and the other 2b (who's better) has a torn hammy. The Brewers can provide relief in several spots at the MLB level right now

Completely disagree. He was injured in 2015 and ended up being shut down the final 5wks. He had 26 starts with his final 4 being awful before being shut down, most likely due to injury. The first 22 he had a 4.8 ERA. Additionally, outside of one of those 22 starts (10ER) he posted a 4.24 ERA. His overall ERA needs some context. 2016 he missed a lot of time with that spring injury and his final 11 starts (of his 19 overall) he posted numbers in line with his entire career. 9 of those starts he had a 2.65 ERA. Without looking it up, I'll bet I can make any regular starter on our team last year look great if I cherry pick the best 9 starts over an 11 start stretch . EDIT: Ok, I looked one up just for fun. Chase Anderson had a 2.96 ERA in his last 11 starts. 2.37 if you just take his best 9 of those. Genius response. You really got me there. Was Chase injured in ST missing the first 2.5 months of the season with barely any ramping up (unlike ST)? Now show me how Chase's numbers over his final 11 starts mirror his entire career. You can't EDIT: chase had a 3.28 ERA over his final 16 starts. Take away 13 of those where he gave up runs and it was 0.00 (see what I did here?)

Perez doesn't get on base. He's best used in a super utility role. He's very valuable in that role. I wouldn't part at all with Cordell for this guy. He's a potential starting OF with pop and speed.

I couldn't agree more. I think we all agree he's an elite player even with just the HOF players. Even if he's a 9 WAR the cost, both in terms of prospects/vets and financial, is insanely absurd that it doesn't even make sense to do it. Between Braun, Villar, Thornburg + Arcia, Brinson, Diaz (not to mention Ray, Phillips, Erceg, Clark, Nottingham given they're AL) + Hader, Ortiz, Bickford, Woodruff. The Brewers absolutely have enough talent to land Trout. Doesn't make sense to do so (not that people are saying it does but...)

Thornburg is definitely bringing back more than Smith, both now and at the deadline. If you get a great offer now, similar to what you'd expect at the break, then trade him otherwise wait til then.

Agree that's why I said I'm fine with Kirk as the 4th for this year, especially if the starters remain relatively healthy. Beyond this year he should be gone. I expect to see Cordell playing well at AAA this year now that he's 100% healthy. I actually don't think Reed struggled overly much at AAA this year. Sure his numbers are down from his career averages but they're not significantly down and his game isn't to drive the ball and get additional carry, which aides in stat padding. He was 3.5yrs young and still put up a 366 OBP while playing quality defense. Both of those alone will make him a quality MLB backup.

Thank you for this. Thank you! People are so uninformed with their comments on this guy. He did a nice job for us last season in the OF when we didn't have much to write home about. Especially at Miller Park. Kirk is fine defensively playing all spots, nobody really says anything negative about that. But he's absolutely horrendous on the road. Was excellent at Miller Park. The issue is, overall, he won't be better than what Reed or Cordell could be - a consistent backup. Someone who performs at home and on the road while also playing all 3 OF spots too. They're just not lefty. And Reed will steal more bases while Kirk hits for more power. Cordell is Reed but with power and more speed

Since Rich Hill seems to be back in LA I'm changing my offer to Braun, Thornburg (replaces Jansen) for Bellinger, De Leon, Puig, McCarthy, Brito

You're not giving the Badger offense enough credit. After all they did score 3pts in the 2nd half. Excellent work. Final play call was laughable on so many levels

I've said this a million times on here and nobody wants to listen to it. Kirk isn't playing over anyone. He's a backup. As long as the starting OF stays healthy they'll all get 500+ AB. Kirk can still see 200+ AB even as the 4th but him being a lefty is whats carrying his 40 spot. I too wish it was Reed or someone else as the 4th because Kirk shouldn't be on the team for the future. If the Brewers go with 12 pitchers I'm fine with Kirk/Reed for a year as we'll probably have Perez + 1 IF joining them and a catcher on the bench.

Completely disagree. He was injured in 2015 and ended up being shut down the final 5wks. He had 26 starts with his final 4 being awful before being shut down, most likely due to injury. The first 22 he had a 4.8 ERA. Additionally, outside of one of those 22 starts (10ER) he posted a 4.24 ERA. His overall ERA needs some context. 2016 he missed a lot of time with that spring injury and his final 11 starts (of his 19 overall) he posted numbers in line with his entire career. 9 of those starts he had a 2.65 ERA. So, no, he's not a mediocre pitcher at best. When he's healthy he's solid. When he's injured he's terrible. And right now he's healthy and his final 11 starts proved it.

Scooter isn't close to being as good as Santana in the OF, nor Davis for that matter. I wouldn't be surprised if his arm is worse than Davis as well. His arm is below average for a 2b. 2.5M is cheap and shouldn't deter anyone from trading for him. I do think he's traded for sure and goes to someone who wants a platoon. He'll likely bring back a low level prospect type but it is what it is - won't be much trade value from him. Most important aspect of his trade is freeing up Villar to be the full time 2b. Him up the middle with Arcia will be a lot of fun to watch.

I hear ya but if they're going to shed money then it would be wise to move Kazmir, McCarthy, Ryu. According to their depth chart that would leave them with Kershaw, Maeda, Urias, Wood, De Leon. Some great young talent but if they engage in a trade and we take back De Leon then Guerra is in their rotation - we'd also take McCarthy I'm assuming too so then they just need to shed Kazmir and Ryu (who might not pitch to begin with). And Guerra is cheap and doesn't hit arby for 2yrs. Clearly this involves a lot of "If's" but it makes sense if it happens

Garza had a 3.72 ERA in his final 11 starts (2.65 in 9 of those). When he's been healthy he's been solid. If there's a good offer on the table before spring then take it. Otherwise wait for the deadline because if he's healthy someone will take him. But between Garza, Peralta, Nelson, Chase, Guerra, Davies someone should be gone before the season. Guerra is probably the easiest to move at this point as Davies isn't going anywhere.

Well played! Premise still stands just figure out which bad contracts to take on.

I like the idea but this guy might not even pitch next year. It'd be hard to push that onto a small market like the Brewers without the chance of him even playing. Agree that's why I edited it and added the Ethier part. I'd take on Ethier/McCarthy. It sucks paying that price tag for Ethier but seems like he'll be back so he could fill in LF until Brinson is up then slide to 4th OF. It's only for a year then money is off the books as he's not vesting. I'd say Kazmir and McCarthy but that's another 17.5M the following year.