MKE81

I laughed at this - in a good way. I'd actually have Bellinger in AAA all year keeping Thames at 1b. Final 2yrs Thames is backup 1b/corner OF, pinch hitter. He'll still get 200+ AB. But yes, nothing blocks Bellinger from playing and the Brewers should target him for sure and see what it takes to land him

If I'm the Dodgers I go for it all over the next couple years. Keep Puig and add Braun. Corner OF is set. Brewers offer Braun, Guerra for Bellinger, De Leon, Smith, Brito then take on contracts of Ryu (16M next 2yrs) and McCarthy (23M next 2yrs) *take on Ethier's 17M for a year in exchange for one of the above and hope he stays healthy replacing Braun's spot. Ryu or McCarthy can be traded if stay healthy

I can fathom it. Even with Puig being average the past couple years he's still 26. He can absolutely turn it around and become an elite player again and do so next year. That's why the Dodgers still value him. IF that happened then you're looking at Bellinger (most likely a future all star) + another solid prospect on top of Braun's all star replacement. That doesn't make sense and I don't care how much of a clubhouse problem Puig is. Also, with this specific trade I don't see a top 3 coming back. I could see Calhoun as the highest rated. I agree with the proposal above where Guerra and/or Thornburg are added to make sure Bellinger + another top prospect, etc depending who we are all giving up. Even if Stearns has to slightly overpay then do it as you'd add several pieces of young elite talent that will mesh very well with the rest of the group

[sarcasm]Oh no! But what if that opens the door for more All-Star games ending in a tie?! How horrible that would be!![/sarcasm] Laugh all you want, but the home field advantage thing was a really good idea at the time. Might have worked out better if teams actually tried, but they didn't really play 100% so it turned into a bit of a joke. Completely disagree. Allowing players, a good amount of them who won't even sniff the playoffs, to determine who has home field advantage was absurd at the time. Teams play 162 games busting their tails to earn home field and it doesn't even matter because a bunch of dudes not on their team, combined with coaches not on their staff making decisions that don't affect their team, win a meaningless game.

Bellinger "should" be the prospect the Brewers want. There's no way the Dodgers said "no" to Braun for Puig/McCarthy/Bellinger/Top 15-20 org solely because we didn't ease the financial burden of Braun's final years. Serious question, does anybody actually think that's a fair deal to begin with and/or one the Dodgers would actually make? Clearly if I'm the Brewers I want it. So LA's getting the final 4-5yrs of Braun's career and giving up Puig (AS talent who hasn't hit prime yet), Bellinger (who very well could be a Top 25 overall this year and should be a future AS 1b) + 15-20 org prospect (an org that is highly ranked to begin with). There is no way I can see LA completing that. If we add to Braun in the deal then it's more realistic. But I just can't see LA parting ways with Bellinger.

IF Bellinger was even on the table at one point, which I still don't think he was in that specific trade since only Braun was coming to them, I'd overpay just to land him. Take on junk contracts (the likes of Ryu, Ethier, Kazmir) and/or cover part of Braun's final 2yrs. However you can get this done while keeping it a respectably fair deal. He's a legitimate 3-4 hitter, covers 1b spot in org and a lefty to boot. He can spend this entire season in AAA before coming up in 2018 too. I'm actually shocked if they even parted ways with Bellinger unless it was such a lopsided offering. He's too good of a prospect and Gonzalez is gone in 2yrs to their replacement is sitting right there, a replacement who will be an upgrade.

Thames at 24 - 362 AB, 262/313/769, 24 doubles, 5 triples, 12HR, 37rbi, 105 OPS+ (Extremely similar to Puig past 2yrs) Perez at 25 - 404 AB, 272/302/730, 18 doubles, 3 triples, 13HR, 56rbi, 34sb, 91 OPS+ Thames career - 250/296/727 in 633 AB (94 OPS+) Perez career - 255/279/652 in 740 AB (74 OPS+) People on here speak well of Perez out of one side of their mouth and poorly of Thames out of the other. I don't understand how people can continually say Thames has shown nothing at the MLB level. His OPB sucks but the other numbers are decent for a 24/25yr old corner OF not playing every day.

I think people have been overlooking/not considering outcome B here. I gotta think the Brewers wouldn't have much interest in trading Eric Thames if he turns into a nice little bargain at 1B. I understand he is older, but I wouldn't be overly concerned with a 1B who is in his early 30s. If the Brewers find a starting lefty 1B and proceed to trade him with years of control that would be...erm...pretty interesting. Stearns mentioned him as a building block for the next competitive team and I think he was pretty serious. If he works out he won't be going anywhere. Of course Stearns said that because there's nothing about this signing that indicates role player. It's a 3yr deal with another option year. But if Thames produces after 2yrs he's being traded for good prospects because that's what Stearns does and that's how you continue to build the pipeline

Plush, there were around 8 other FA 1b where a case can be made they're an automatic upgrade over Carter on both sides of the ball outside of power that are also a similar price tag as Thames (or cheaper than Carter still). There's for sure minor league options as well but that's a different story as it's more complex to acquire that person. If Stearns didn't think Thames was an automatic upgrade to Carter on both sides (minus HR) then he wouldn't have given him 3/15. Thames most likely barely sees any OF action next season and won't see any OF action beyond 2017 as we'll have Brinson, Cordell too. Given he's the only 1b on the 40 at this point I'm guessing he's not a role player but will be the regular 1b moving forward. Depending how he performs over the first couple years he could turn into a role player (backup 1b, 5th OF, lefty pinch hitter with pop) that final year but I don't believe that was the purpose of the signing. He upgrades the 1b spot on both sides, gives Counsell more balance since he's a lefty and has a cost effective price tag. I'm sure they have a pretty good idea of what type of production he's going to put out there at the MLB level given where he was 3yrs ago in AAA and where he's at as a player right now, even if the competition has only been high AA/low AAA. Additionally, there isn't an endless pipeline of guys who put up Pujols numbers in Korea. OVer the past 3yrs there have been 6-7 players who have hit over 27-28HR each season. The batting averages are higher there that's for sure and it's due to the talent level not being as deep, like you said. But there's definitely some strong talent over there that can be successful in MLB.

I am not stuck on what he did five or six years ago. I am stuck on the idea that you think the minimum we can expect out of him- as a 30 year old with little experience in the majors, and hasn't played in a league above AAA level for three years- is league average production. That is just way too optimistic a view of what the minimum can be. I love the enthusiasm. He could do that or better so I am not dissing him. But at some point reality has to play a part. He could really be a lot worse than league average. His floor is much lower than that. If that was his ceiling and he reached it I would be very happy with the deal. Like I said, I understand where you're coming from but I just don't see it that way. I don't think his age is a negative especially given the shape he's in. Him already having MLB experience while not requiring a cultural adjustment should be seen as positives. KBO is still competitive ball. Even with sizeable drops in numbers across the board he's still league average at minimum and an upgrade over Carter since he can play better defense and will be better on the bases as well.

They literally just got rid of Josmil Pinto who would be making the minimum for the next few years and is only 27. You must have skipped over that key word "potential". Pinto's doesn't mirror Thames'

Thurston Fluff said: I think 260/340/810 is closer to his ceiling than his floor. He's bigger and stronger with a shorter and more compact swing now compared to 2013. He's quicker to the ball with more whip. Also changed his stance (feet/base) and hand positioning. He looks much better now compared to when he was 24/25yrs old in MLB To say that is his floor is really a stretch. Though he could very well be better, to say that is the lowest level of performance he can reach is pretty hard to justify. His floor is more like replacement level than a roughly league average major league player. His ceiling is far closer to major league average than his floor. I hear what you're saying. I also understand what "floor" means. His MLB numbers in 181 games at 24/25yrs old (4yrs younger for level) are 250/296/727. His AAA numbers (1-3yrs young) in 200 games were 312/389/894. He destroyed Korea. He had around 930 total minor league ABs prior to first MLB stint where he slashed 262/313/769. He was traded twice within the next year so that can have an impact as well. Since then he's significantly increased his strength, changed his stance/hands into a more powerful compact swing and has made drastic improvements to his BB/K ratio. He's matured physically and as a player/person. So, when you combine all of that I absolutely don't think my 260/340/810 line is unrealistic for his floor, especially considering his AAA and Korean performance. People are stuck on what he did in a small sample size in MLB as a 24/25yr old vs looking at the big picture.

Thurston Fluff said: I think 260/340/810 is closer to his ceiling than his floor. He's bigger and stronger with a shorter and more compact swing now compared to 2013. He's quicker to the ball with more whip. Also changed his stance (feet/base) and hand positioning. He looks much better now compared to when he was 24/25yrs old in MLB

Maybe you should look at Thames AA and AAA numbers. He was great at both. There isn't one person who thinks he'll reproduce his Korean numbers. He's bigger and stronger than he was 3-4yrs ago and he seems to have figured it out elsewhere.

I think a realistic floor is 260/340/810 while playing better defense at 1b than Carter. It's a cheaper alternative and upgrade to Carter. He won't match his HR output but doesn't need too because he does everything else better while still offering plenty of power. Him being a lefty is simply a bonus. While he offers corner OF versatility I can't see where he'll be there given he's the only 1b on the 40 (Perez can fill in there but he's not a regular). Wonder if Cooper is being looked at too as a righty compliment to fill in if Thames gets OF time or if the 3b we land has 1b experience too. Regardless, I'm a fan of this signing and I think the length makes sense too since only Cooper is in the pipeline

Defensively inept? False. Santana is a better RF than Perez and it's not close. I'm not against Santana going to 1b but it'll be because there's a hole there, he's a massive target and the RFs coming up are above average/plus defensive OF (Phillips/Cordell). By both Fangraphs and B-Ref, Santana is a below average defender. He has 4 OF assists in 111 starts. I honestly can't remember even one highlight level play by him. His one redeeming quality is that he's not Ramon Flores. Yes because defensive WAR/metrics/rankings/etc aren't known to be garbage, or at least nowhere near advanced as the offensive side and even those don't paint a complete picture. OF assists? Mind = blown. He is an average defensive OF with a legitimate RF arm. Inept isn't close to fitting the description

Defensively inept? False. Santana is a better RF than Perez and it's not close. I'm not against Santana going to 1b but it'll be because there's a hole there, he's a massive target and the RFs coming up are above average/plus defensive OF (Phillips/Cordell).

I have no issues with this move. Carter isn't worth 8M and nobody will trade for him at that price. We got good enough production from 2.5M and you move on now. I'm a fan of Cooper but don't think he's ready to start the year. Winter Meetings should be a blast for us. Trade Braun and Thornburg to Dodgers and bring back Bellinger + bunch of other talent

There are some pen spots open so creating plenty of competition makes sense. Thornburg, Barnes, Knebel, Torres should be locks. Leaves 3-4 spots open. Marinez, Geltz, Parker, Magnifico, Suter, Scahill, Blazek, Cravy all on the 40 still and some of these guys could be gone via trade. I'm baffled how Walker is DFA'd over some of these other guys though

The Badgers played very bad in the 1st half and their win was as a direct result of the atrocious play from the Gophers QB in the 2nd half. It was much more on the poor throws/decisions than the Badgers defense making a great read and play on the ball. If the Badgers repeat that performance it could be an ugly championship game next week

Torres had strong years in 2013, 2014 so it didn't seem pointless at all. Guerra was for depth and he learned a new pitch and dominated (Brewers got lucky). I'd give Parker a chance over Goforth any day. I think Scahill will be removed and Scooter, Maldy traded clearing more spots with a Rule 5 pen arm coming (hoping Webb).

Brinson's HR/SB numbers if reached 500 AB every season in pro ball: 2013 - 23/27 2014 - 19/17 2015 - 25/23 2016 - 18/21 (while being injured) Averages of 21/22 being 1.5 - 4 years young at every level. You're right, there's nothing that suggests he's a 20/20 unless reaching the magical 600 AB mark. There's a reason everyone says he has 30/30 potential but somehow you think he can't even hit 20/20 when he's doing it already. Everyone knows Broxton can steal 20 in his sleep. 9HR in 207 AB last year puts him 22HR with 500 AB and that includes his awful first half. It's fine if you don't think Brinson hits 20/20 but what you're suggesting has zero evidence supporting it; same with Broxton (albeit he's a different case because he's older and also just changed his hand positioning allowing for greater power even though he already had 15+ potential). Scooter is a decent starting 2b but he doesn't do anything very well and only plays 2b. He absolutely needs to be traded and Stearns needs to find a 3b. Scooter can contribute to a team; just doesn't fit the direction of the Brewers. If Rogers brings back Broxton/Supak and Sneed brings back Villar then Scooter will bring back something that will help the org in some capacity

at the time of the proposed trade, Puig had lost significant value and was sent to the minors. The Brewers thought they could capitalize on this, as it was not too long ago that Puig was one of the most valuable young talents in baseball, and place a bet that he would re-establish himself the next season and they could re-trade him for a lot more, at the deadline or after the season, and by then Brinson and/or others would be ready to step in. as it so happened, Puig went off and did exactly that, at least in a limited number of games. it'll be interesting to see if in fact talks do re-emerge. The point I was making with that specific comment was in regard to Briggs saying he wanted MLB talent back to better the team overall in places needing a boost when we are trading specific guys (one of those mentioned was Braun). I was saying if Puig comes back for Braun then nothing changes. It's one OF for another. I have no idea what your comment has to do with mine. I'm well aware of why the Brewers want Puig and I'm all for it. I like it . But that trade was a bad example for what Briggs was trying to say

LouisEly - you said, regarding Wren, "There is the possibility that 2016 is an outlier, but the trend does not support it." So, yes, you effectively said it wasn't an outlier. No, I didn't prove your point (Gatewood and Taylor). Wren has produced good slash lines (not so much OPS because he has no power) at every level - wealth of knowledge from professional coaching doesn't translate day one and he's produced since day one. So now you're saying those two players don't listen to coaches and instruction? Has there been any evidence that either is a head case? That either have off-the-field issues? That either aren't competitive and don't put in the effort required to succeed? If not, then maybe you shouldn't speak in generalities on why some people (who all come from different backgrounds) might fail. Maybe they're just not as talented as the Brewers initially thought? That does happen, you know. I don't need to look at the minor league production or the younger MLB versions of Moreland, Moss, Adams, Marte, Zimmerman because I was referring to the 2016 versions of them - the versions where all of them (except for Marte) were regulars/contributors to playoff, or playoff caliber, teams. Walker could absolutely put up those same slash lines, including 2015 Zimmerman, while also hitting a lot more HR than them all. If he becomes more patient he can exceed those numbers. Marte obviously is around his age and Angels aren't that good so he's a different case. Walker spent his 4 individual seasons in the Midwest, Florida St, Southern, International Leagues. He has always been in offensively challenged leagues and multiple times hit 25-31HR in some of the toughest parks/leagues to hit for power. His 2016 in AAA (2.5yrs young) is a pretty good indicator for what he could do now in the MLB - 243/305/784 hitting 30+ HR. If he can become a little bit more patient, draw some more walks, lay off some pitches he'll improve those numbers. The Brewers have pushed this philosophy since Stearns took over and players have bought in so I expect that to benefit Walker. He's a starting 1b or DH. Wren is a 5th OF who can play 3 OF spots (but not all of them well) while having an OK arm, good speed. He'll hit for a decent avg, get on base, steal some bases, has minimal pop but he won't be a regular/contributor. We all know the Brewers will start losing guys in the Rule 5 if they continue to have a deep, good system but guys they believe will be MLB contributors are the guys they're keeping on the 40. If Wren is selected, along with Wang, then so be it. They're not difference makers. Plus, there's always some guys you want to take a chance on, especially pen arms. There's some intriguing guys in this year's draft that I'd personally rather have on the 40 and give them a chance at the MLB level now to show they can help the team in the long-term vs someone like Wren who is buried on the OF depth chart.

Wren was also in AA in his first full professional season, and in AAA in his second full professional season. We have already established that college players don't get as much coaching and experience as people think they do, certainly less than players who choose full-time pro baseball over college baseball. I would expect anyone who is in AA in his first full professional season to struggle. He then made adjustments and had a better walk rate at AA in 2015 before struggling after being promoted to AAA; he then made adjustments and had a great walk rate in 2016. He has done exactly what you hope a player does - get better every year. That is the issue with making judgments based on retrospective analysis - it doesn't take into account trends. Analysis is based on three components - what is the past, what is the present, what is the trend. There is the possibility that 2016 is an outlier, but the trend does not support it. Wren had 200 AB in A in 2013 then spent his first full pro year in 2014 with 300AB in A+ and 200 in AA. By the time he was in AA he was 23, had 4yr of college and a full season's worth of experience and pro coaching between A and A+. And you expect that person to struggle (which I don't think he even did)? His 2016 overall (mainly AAA) is absolutely an outlier compared to his previous 2yrs. If it wasn't he wouldn't be subjected to the Rule 5 because those numbers were outstanding. If pro coaching is part of your reasoning for his great success at AAA this year then why is Gatewood still terrible after 3yrs of pro coaching? Why can't Tyrone Taylor get beyond AA with 4-5yrs of pro coaching? Talent matters and it matters greatly.