MKE81
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Everything posted by MKE81
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Braun's not going anywhere unless it's an offer you can't turn down. He's still an All Star caliber player and his contract will look better and better with every FA signing over the next 1yr and beyond. Trading Braun then adding Bruce accomplishes nothing as there isn't one corner OF prospect in our system right now that will be equal to or better than Braun and Bruce won't net anything noteworthy
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The Brewers just had a 5'9" guy play there for 7 years. When Flores hits 50 HRs and is one of the most feared sluggers in the game, get back to me and Ill reevaluate my thoughts. Yes because comparing the power of a 1b to an OF is logical. 1b is a power position. Height has nothing to do with playing 1b. Obviously the bigger the wingspan the better but if that player can't field, scoop or have the proper footwork required to succeed over there than your wingspan is irrelevant. A 5'10 guy who can play that position well is much more valuable on the defensive side than a 6'6 brutal guy.
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Santana has to hold off Flores? Flores himself isn't an established MLB hitter. Santana was a Top 75 prospect heading into last year then had a monster AAA - again. He would have been higher this year if he was eligible. He has a very strong arm, a major advantage over Flores. Both can cover ground in CF but neither profile there so covering space isn't an issue for either. Flores doesn't have one defensive advantage over Santana. Flores also doesn't have much offensive advantage over Santana either - lefty, takes more walks, has better contact numbers, steals more bases. Which sounds really good but in AA/AAA Santana still had a higher BA, OBP, SLG, OPS and has 25-30HR potential vs 8-10HR potential (Flores). Santana has a much higher ceiling than Flores; it's not even a debate. Part of the reason Davis was traded was to create a full time spot for Santana, not a full time spot for Flores (although in creating the spot for Santana it created a backup spot for Flores). I find it hilarious that you cherry pick ONE MONTH of Flores' numbers last year to prove your point. In the meantime you ride Khris Davis' jock - a guy who's had a non-impressive slash line for all of 2014 and all of 2015 heading into his monster Sept last year and only discuss HR when speaking about him as if we should all ignore every other facet of his game. Having said that, Flores is a solid player - a valuable 4th OF/spot starter. He can definitely contribute to a team and he should absolutely make this team out of spring now that he's healthy. But he's not starting over Braun or Santana or whoever ends up in CF (most likely Liriano). And Flores won't be a backup 1b. If anything that'll go to Walsh (assuming Lucroy is traded and Middlebrooks doesn't make team); who's a switch hitter and high OBP guy as well. Plus he actually plays in the IF regularly.
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This is a great point. Agree as well except I think Liriano will be starting in CF
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But guys like him aren't everywhere. He's an excellent defender. That alone makes him more valuable than a "dime a dozen" type. Offensively thus far, overall, I agree with you. But, as previously stated, he's 23 this year and has improved across the board the past 2-3yrs and improved a lot in his half season at AA last year then had an excellent AFL (that counts for something as well given the level of competition). It's pretty common for people to look at player's jumps in production from A/A+ to AA in regard to their development and he made a significant jump from where he was previously. His AAA this year will be more telling but he absolutely is trending upwards at this point
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Yadiel Rivera and his career .289 OBP is never going to be ready to hit MLB pitching. He's 23 this season. The past 2yrs he's had OBP of 309 (A+/AA similar for both) then took a massive step forward at AA last year 277/345 before struggling at AAA with the promotion. He then killed it in AFL. He's been trending upwards across the board with each level he's advanced. He's definitely not the answer as the backup IF to compete with Perez as he needs to continue to develop in AAA even though his defense is already there. He can be a career utility guy being halfway decent offensively while playing great defense at key IF positions. There's value in that.
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Must have been an easy conversation for Stearns. Give me XYZ otherwise lets talk about when/where we are golfing next
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Why anyone would think Hill wouldn't start at 3b is beyond me. Hill/Villar/Scooter/Carter is what we'll see. I could also see Hill sliding over to 2b vs Lefties with Perez filling in at 3b if Counsell wants to keep right handed bats in lineup. If planning on trading Hill by the break it'll boost his value if he's playing 2b and 3b (assuming he's actually performing rather decently in first half). I think Walsh needs to make this team given his approach, high OBP and ability to step in at 2b/3b/1b. Perez offers versatility over Middlebrooks. I wouldn't be surprised if Stearns adds another guy to the mix who can play multiple spots including SS to compete with Perez. There is absolutely no reason to even consider Cecchini for the starting 3b job - not sure why people keep including him in the mix. He needs to have a successful year at AAA and get back to his old habits so he can be the 3b of the future (hopefully)
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As it should be. Even though Santana can play LF it doesn't make sense given he profiles as a RF and that's where he'd be long term. Plus Braun is better in LF than RF. Win/Win
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Opening Day - Jeffress, Knebel, Blazek, Thornburg, Pena, Jimenez, Jones (obviously if he needs to perform relatively well in spring) I think Smith is traded for sure and given other options in pen I think Jones is worth the gamble given the expectations for the team this season. I really like Barrios but think he still needs time to continue to develop at AAA given he wasn't always a pitcher and is still learning. If Magnifico continues dominating out of pen you're looking at him, Barrios, Houser next in line replacing some of these current guys (I do think Houser will land in the pen)
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Offseason Review: Brewers Best and Worst moves
MKE81 replied to patrickgpe's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Braun not worth his contract? Have you seen what other players not as productive as him are currently getting not to mention what players will be getting over the next couple years? Everyone knows Lucroy is going to be traded, and most likely Smith as well, but listing those as the worst moves because they haven't happened yet doesn't make sense. He's not trading them just to make a trade. When the right offer is on the table the trigger will be pulled -
Offseason Review: Brewers Best and Worst moves
MKE81 replied to patrickgpe's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Is it also going to be tough watching Davis put up a 245/305 line while runners walk from 1b to 3b on balls hit right at him? Santana doesn't have to match Davis in HRs to be more productive than him. Rogers was a solid backup, but he's just that. A backup. Broxton is a true CF, what this team lacked, who plays solid defense while also having pop and speed...can be a quality backup. And you have no idea what Stearns was offered for Lind - if it was a AA or AAA prospect(s) maybe it didn't make sense given the other players he expected to sign or trade for. Which might have provided a great opportunity to trade him for 3 very young, raw talents that pound the zone for a cheap price tag. You don't need a sexy return on every trade to accomplish your goal of building a pipeline of talent at every level. -
Offseason Review: Brewers Best and Worst moves
MKE81 replied to patrickgpe's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Best Move - Hiring Stearns to transform this organization's strategy and culture. Next Best Move - Jean Segura/Tyler Wagner and Khris Davis trades. Segura gone paves the way for Arcia (Top 10) moving forward while also giving Villar a chance to prove himself as a contributor (ie potentially 2b, 3b or utility). Chase Anderson is a proven, more polished Wagner with a slightly higher ceiling. Hill plugs an immediate need (3b and platoon with Scooter) and can be flipped for low level prospects at break if performs well. Diaz has potential to be a Top 100 (some say Top 50) heading into 2017 if he repeats last year's success. Davis gone paves the way for Santana (Top 80) in RF, which will move Braun back to LF improving the corner defense significantly. Also bolstered the organizational pipeline with a top-tier catching prospect (huge need) and talented young pitcher who might grow into something meaningful. Both moves positively affected the MLB team and minor leagues. Worst Move - There hasn't been one. Some have been sexier than others but they've all made sense and have put this organization on the right track to have consistent success at every level moving forward creating a pipeline that will feed the MLB team when a small/mid market team won't be able to afford large long-term contracts to high performing players (who will then be traded restocking the pipeline). *Sardinas is average at best. He won't hit for avg nor get on base, lacks any sort of pop in bat but would be solid defensively. He's a dime a dozen. Villar has more, and better, tools. Flores should turn into a solid backup OF or traded for prospects. Rogers is solid but when you can cheaply sign a 35HR guy at 1b while finding a potential versatile 4th OF (Broxton) with several tools it makes the team/organization better overall. Rogers wasn't the long-term solution at 1b anyway and Carter won't be either. Sneed was a solid prospect but Villar can bolster this team's bench production (I think he'll end up as a utility guy in future and he's already better than anything we had last year off the bench between 2b/3b/ss). Lind trade can't even be discussed for at least 2yrs until you get a feel for the pitchers we received and see how they perform at lower levels. Rymer Liriano was a great get and should be starting in CF with his tool set. Really like the Cecchini cash trade and Rule 5 Walsh selection as well. OF log jam of Phillips, Santana, Rymer, Reed, Broxton, Flores (Kirk, EY, Presley will be gone) is great because the cream always rises and the rest are traded to bolster the organizational talent - having options is the best thing you can have going for you....and it's crazy that I didn't even include Coulter, Taylor, Clark, Harrison, Demi either. Insane OF depth in this organization.* -
Interesting take given it actually does matter how his errors are split. As a hypothetical, if a guy has 30 errors and you say he can't field the ball to save his life yet 28 errors were on the throwing end then he clearly doesn't have an issue fielding it. You can't say this guy is historically bad at fielding the ball because he can't hit the side of a barn throwing it. Just for your information, a guy I used to work with has been best friends with Counsell forever and when Braun was called up he told us he has no problem picking it he just doesn't know where it's going to end up.
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I'm also on board going after any catcher named Austin
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Whatever Fangraphs says is automatically gold. Got it. Catcher is worse no doubt if Lucroy is traded. Carter, overall, is a drop off from Lind but he will also hit an additional 10HR+ and drive in at least the same amount of runs as Lind did (he's literally replacing Davis' power in the lineup). 2b is better, actually, given Scooter will platoon with Hill. SS is equal or slightly better (Villar is 24 and performed much better last year over previous stints so maybe he's starting to figure it out). 3b is a wash worst case and Hill is an improvement over Perez who played half the year. Braun should go back to LF and he's better defensively than Davis. CF will be a wash based on what Gomez did last year (Gomez overall is obviously much better but if we're talking about 2015 vs 2016 Rymer very well could be better offensively but definitely not defensively - Gomez wasn't anywhere near as good as what he typically is defensively last year too). RF Santana will be better defensively than Braun. I'm comparing Davis vs Santana offensively as that's the backfill player - I don't care what Davis did for a 7-8wk stretch I care about the entire body of work. Santana will be an upgrade vs Davis. He will hit for an equal to or higher avg, get on base much more, still hit 20HR+ and play better defense (if given 500ABs that is). Parra played out of his shoes last year and will never reproduce that rest of his career and much of his time last year was in place of an injured Gomez/Davis. Rotation should actually be significantly better than last year. Chase is a major upgrade from Lohse. Garza last year was the first year he had an ERA above 3.91 since 2006. He'll be back to his typical self, which is a major upgrade. Him being a year older is irrelevant. He's 32, not 37. Peralta was terrible and injured last year. He'll pitch much better as well. That's 3 rather significant changes for the better not to mention the continued development of Nelson and Jungmann. Bullpen can be just as good even minus KRod. If Smith and/or Jeffress are traded obviously they're worse. Either of them can handle the closer role.
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Jenrry Mejia banned from MLB after third positive PED test
MKE81 replied to trwi7's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Braun failed a random test and won due to chain of custody violation. Selig paid X amount of dollars (aka bribed) to have documents, testimony, etc against some big names players including Braun. Failing three tests in a calendar year means he doesn't give two poops about the consequences -
I don't think that is a good example. If he doesn't care I guess he will never be any good with that attitude. Also why are we freaking out over Josh Hader's huge fall league performance, but if Santana does poorly it is nothing? Seems like it should go both ways. Santana made a brief ML appearance in 2014. And some more in 2015. He's got a great AAA line. Him having to prove himself at his winter ball is past. Hader on the other hand has 0 games played at AAA much less ML. He needs to show up and attempt to show some kind of learning or improvement. Can also say Hader had just 104IP vs the 123 he had the season before. His arm had innings to throw. Santana 126games 460PAs vs 147 598PAs. So it stands with reason the young man may have been tired. Hader's arm didn't have that reason. On to the subject of Tanking and was it Olney who's upset at what Milw has done to fit his idea of the team tanking. So in a perfect world with the team trying to acquire winning talent through ML player trades/signings. We should still have Gomez +9mil. Lind +8mil. Segura +3mil. Gone after a FA SP. Kept KRod +7.5mil. Fiers would still be on team. So let's see: 50mil+27 or 77mil. We'd probably have picked up a Doug Fister on a 2year deal for 18mil vs the 1/7. And now we're a 90win team and not tanking right? Obviously wouldn't have a single one of the younger players. So let's build a maybe 80win team at 85-100mil payroll. And have a minors club ranked near the bottom so to satisfy not tanking. Next year after we'd have lost Gomez, Krod, and Lind we'd put Reed/Taylor in CF. Rogers would be at 1b. Segura would be traded for Arcia to play SS. We'd sign a 3b. Still have a mediocre Staff. No depth. spend somewhere 85-100mil on payroll sell the team as a winning squad that can compete with the near 100win Central teams after not doing so the prior 2seasons. Hey we ain't tanking. Aint winning also but we keep giving the college try. Nah we don't want that. So let's change the rules now that the Cubs are 100win team of what looks like the next decade. We can't let what they did work for other franchises. We gotta stop this. Want it to be fixed? Retract to 20 Teams. Have 40man rosters vs 25man. Eliminate the bottom 10markets so 150+Million payrolls. Or, just let it be. Milwaukee won't have 35year olds getting starts. Signing 33year old+ to fill your team to me would be tanking. Playing AA players would be tanking. Giving AAA guys and under 28year olds shots at playing, isn't tanking. It's called being young and needing time for talent to lead to wins. YES. THIS. and Olney has long been terrible. The Brewers have veteran MLB players at C, 1b, 2b, 3b, LF (Braun). Villar has parts of 3 MLB seasons and is getting his shot to start. Liriano has a small MLB stint and is getting his shot after a strong showing at AAA / Broxton is 25 and getting his shot after spending the majority of last year at AAA. Santana has 2yrs in AAA and was up enough last year to not qualify for Top Prospect lists otherwise he would have been Top 100 again. Rotation is all veterans. Pen is all veterans. What does Olney want from a small/mid market team that has a pipeline of Top 100 Prospects transitioning to the MLB level in 2017...to sign established FAs and block their development at this level? He's awful
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Absolutely agree. Personally, I'd keep him for remainder of contract as his salary is already better than what others are getting and it'll look more and more better year after year (at least for the next few years). He's still the most productive position player and will be again this year and most likely the next several given how young the top prospects are. I'd only trade him if the value was there in return. Treating him as a "salary dump" is a terrible idea. He's not Aaron Hill and never will be
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I agree. It'll be interesting to see which direction he chooses. I hope he packages Lucroy with a pitcher and gets a mix of a MLB ready talent as well as very young high ceiling guys. There aren't many MLB positions that need to be filled starting in 2017 and with a low payroll still has free agency to pick up a guy or two
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Again, this is not a prediction of what I think will happen, this is a projection of where the current pieces fit in. The Brewers have seemed to indicate an unwillingness to trot Santana out any more in CF. I suppose if they think Flores will be back soon after Opening Day, they could live with Santana out there for a little bit, but then he's going back down when Flores gets back anyway. My comment was a "projection" based on the trend of Stearns transactions in combination with how he's stated he's transforming this organization. It was obvious Davis was going to be traded giving Santana that open spot. And that's exactly what happened. It's possible to project a player won't be on the opening day roster. Lucroy is going to be traded as well - that's a projection, not a prediction, based on Stearns trend of trading players with value to continue to pipeline for 2017 and beyond. Clearly they didn't want Santana in CF, because he's not a CF now nor long-term, hence acquiring Broxton, Liriano, etc (but specifically those two).
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So you're saying there will be four 100 loss teams in 2016? Last I looked, Vegas odds had the Brewers at around 71 wins. Not sure if I'd take the over on that, but I absolutely would on 62. Vegas sees them at 3 games better after losing Lind, KRod, and Davis and replacing them with other teams 40 man rejects? Is that current? I'd love to see the metrics on such an estimate with the current roster. IF Stearns goal is to go from 68 to 71 wins then we hired the wrong guy. That would be a Herb Kohl kind of GM. I have no idea how many 100 loss teams there will be but the Brewers will be one, by design. Luc will be gone soon and likely Braun once they figure out the math on moving his contract. You'd have to about as hard core a fan as there is to not look at that remaining lineup as the worst in the game. If the Brewers were even thinking of competing in the next 2 plus years there is no way they trade away Davis who cost very little vs his production. Throw in the possibility of the DH and you have no reason to move him at all unless you want to tank. Had the Brewers trades been similar to July I'd disagree with the tanking model, but since they are going for guys like Diaz, the sherif, and the 3 rookie league lottery tickets from Seattle, it's quite clear the team has no interest it trying to build the MLB roster the next few years in what would be a futile effort vs the Cubs, Pirates, and Cards. Actually there's plenty of reason to trade Davis. His arm is horrendous, his ball tracking is average, the past 2yrs in 900ABs he has a 305 OBP?, he doesn't hit for average, his K rate increased last year, he's 28yrs old (much older than other OFs in system) and moving him opens the door for a guaranteed spot for Santana - a 23yr old Top 100 heading into last year where he killed AAA...again...and he's cheaper and more controllable. No interest in building MLB roster within next 3yrs? Assuming Braun is still on team next year, and with Santana having a spot this year now, he'll have Arcia, Phillips, Cecchini (if back to "normal") up next year. That's 5 position players. Carter is still under control if he has a decently productive season and long term 1b isn't addressed. That leaves 2b (maybe Vilar or someone else) and C at MLB level in 2017. There are still a half dozen pieces to be traded that could impact MLB roster next year as well or the following. This doesn't include signing free agents with this low payroll. Lopez, Hader, Davies for rotation by 2017. Houser (I think he should be in pen but will be looked at in rotation), Magnifico, Barnes, etc in pen by 2017. Why in the world would Stearns try to stack the MLB roster to compete this year when all of these guys will have spots the following year?
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Who is comparing Santana to Fielder? Some of you (ie you) only speak of Davis' power and neglect all the other tools. He's average at tracking balls, has the worst arm in MLB allowing runners to go first to third on routine balls at him, hasn't shown a knack for getting on base the past 2yrs while also hitting mid-240s (989 PAs/893 ABs) while increasing his K rate (also increased walk rate as well). And he's 28yrs old - much older than all other options currently in organization. So while he does possess a plus plus tool (power) he possesses below average-average other tools. I also find it odd that people have no problem seriously questioning Santana's skill set, a guy who's killed AAA pitching at 21 and 22yrs old, but have no problem treating Arcia and Phillips in the complete opposite manner when neither has a single PA above AA. Doesn't seem very logical. And Davis has 21 more Ks than hits at the MLB level and over his entire professional career has 40 more hits than Ks. But you seem to find him very productive.
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Yes, I was looking at his .188 and 5 errors winter league numbers and bypassing his 296/384/858, 27 doubles, 16HR, 81rbi in AAA at age 21 (2014) and 333/426/999, 23 doubles, 18HR, 77rbi in AAA at age 22 (2015). He was very streaky at the MLB level last year but he was also 22yrs old posting a higher OBP than Davis has the previous 900ABs at that level and with his SLG being a little below Davis' 2014 numbers but with an OPS slightly higher. I'm not saying he's a gold glover - but there's no denying he's an upgrade defensively over Davis whether or not you believe he's overrated on that side of the ball. He will get 500ABs this year as a 23yr old to show what his potential can be. I don't care if Davis has more power than Santana - he's an immediate upgrade on the defensive side and should be on par, at worse, on the offensive side. By that I mean he most likely won't hit as many HRs as Davis but it's not unreasonable to think he can post a 260/350/800 line with 25 doubles, 20HR+, 75rbi+ while striking out more than Davis but also walking more as well. That makes him an immediate upgrade at the age of 23. I do agree he should play LF.

