MKE81
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Lucroy Trades/Proposals (part 4)
MKE81 replied to wildcat2237's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
If both are included in a trade to CLE you're looking at getting Frazier/Zimmer, Bradley, Mejia, McKenzie, Hillman and other low level, young prospects. No idea how many will be included but these are the main names that seem to be popping up in speculation of what we could see -
MLB.com Updated Prospect Rankings (Mid-Season 2016)
MKE81 replied to MrTPlush's topic in Brewers Minor League Talk
I disagree with Ray being rated #2 as well as higher than Phillips given Phillips had great success at that A+ level at the same age Ray is currently there. I understand it's based on potential and he was just a Top 5 pick in the draft and has like 100ABs in pro ball but still. I could be wrong but I believe Phillips ceiling is higher too. Lara is only that high still due to his age. He's not hitting well but I saw him in AZ during spring. Great build, seems very fluid in the field, accurate with his off-balance throws and if he can develop his hitting tool over the next 3-4yrs he'll definitely stay in the Top 5 area. Erceg, Burnes, Peralta can contend for Top 10 area spots in ranking by this time next year in they continue to progress. I think Peralta should be higher than 18 right now including above D.Williams. I feel as if Hader stayed in AA and continued to dominate he'd be Top 30-35 overall and that his few hiccups in AAA have caused a drop similar to Phillips having a big drop to 78. I'm actually shocked that Ray is 37 overall given his slow start to pro ball. Trading Lucroy, Smith and/or Jeffress should bring several others into the Top 10-15 adding to the depth we have right now. Exciting times -
Clint Coulter - Why is he playing so poorly at High A?
MKE81 replied to Bombers's topic in Brewers Minor League Talk
Dynamite analysis. If I provided a detailed analysis of "why" then would that result in a different conclusion? No. So I went straight to the point. Not my issue that you can't see what's right in front of your face -
Clint Coulter - Why is he playing so poorly at High A?
MKE81 replied to Bombers's topic in Brewers Minor League Talk
Coulter sucks. It has nothing to do with position changes, location or anything else. A change of scenery won't increase his likelihood for vertical growth. He simply sucks. Roache is better than Coulter but Roache also won't make it to MLB (neither will Taylor) -
Lucroy Trades/Proposals (part 4)
MKE81 replied to wildcat2237's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
The biggest difference is the Cubs can afford to make a trade like that regardless of whether or not he's in their uniform next year and beyond. They were just shy of the WS last year and with the Mets rotation doing downhill it's very likely they'll be in the WS this year. They'll gladly exchange a shot at a ring for Torres + others dudes that have not, nor most likely ever, impact their MLB roster. The vast majority of teams aren't in that position to begin with. -
Lucroy Trades/Proposals (part 4)
MKE81 replied to wildcat2237's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
If the Cubs sign Chapman to an extension then it's not a rental. ALL position players have the potential to impact more games than any pitcher regardless of in rotation or pen. That point is irrelevant. Chapman vs Lucroy isn't apples to apples. They impact the game in different ways. The Cubs are stacked position wise so it's easy for them to give up their top rated prospect to get an elite closer. To the person that said he's arguably top 5 reliever - no - he IS that. Career ERA slightly above 2 giving up 5 hits/9 and 15K/9. He's absolutely dominant and helps that team tremendously late in games. The Indians, as stated above, don't need an elite catcher to upgrade their situation because it's currently non-existent. However, an elite bat/catcher gives them a much greater chance in the post season and because they're loaded with talent they can give up a bunch of talent without actually giving up their top 2 prospects - remains to be seen if that's ok with Stearns though. I really want a trade to happen and to happen with CLE because they line up extremely well even without Frazier/Zimmer in the mix. -
Lucroy Trades/Proposals (part 4)
MKE81 replied to wildcat2237's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
So, are you suggesting that we trade Lucroy AND Smith for Santander, Mejia, McKenzie, Hillman and either Allen/Lugo/Wakamatsu? I'm sorry, but personally I don't think that is enough. Maybe I'm completely off base here, but if you aren't getting either Zimmer/Frazier in the return deal for 1.5 years of one of the best catchers in baseball along with a few years of one of the better LH relief pitchers, then Cleveland better pony up with a bigger haul and Bradley better be a part of that. For Luc & Smith, I'd personally want (again, if Zimmer/Frazier are off table) Bradley, McKenzie, Mejia, Hillman and then one of their teenage kids that Stearns seems to target in most of his deals. Again - maybe I need to reel in my expectations here, but I just think that a Luc/Smith package deal should net a bit of a bigger return package than what you suggested. To get a deal done I would almost prefer to bypass Zimmer/Frazier and focus on Bradley, McKenzie, Mejia, Hillman in return for Lucroy/Smith. It would be great to add in a 18/19yr old arm as well but I wouldn't care if it was just those 4 players. 3 Top 100 and Hillman could potentially grow into that list. That's a great haul. If a trade with CLE happens it'll be interesting to see the final result given everyone's idea of what should be had in return. -
Lucroy Trades/Proposals (part 4)
MKE81 replied to wildcat2237's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Agree with this. Nabbing Lucroy now gives them 2 playoff runs with an elite catcher and if they extend him even more. They have Brantley, Naquin in OF for future so maybe they don't want to part with either Frazier or Zimmer and that's what Steans might be pushing for. I doubt the Indians are refusing to part with Bradley, McKenzie (maybe), Mejia, Hillman. I'd give up Lucroy/Smith for that. Could add another prospect too but that's 2 great prospects each for Lucroy and Smith. 3 Top 100 (McKenzie will be) + Hillman and such and as a bonus all happen to fill a need in the system as well -
Comp pick is the absolute worst and last thing you want happening. If he's not traded at the deadline, which I absolutely think he should be, then he'll be traded in the offseason where he can get to know his new pitching staff and work on an extension with the club (assuming they're a contender). You can still get the same return in summer as you're asking now - especially if a teams like the Indians/Rangers don't move for him now and their catching situation is horrendous down the final stretch and/or in the playoffs it'll force their hand in the offseason. Now, that also opens the door for those teams to go in another direction with another team as well. Regarding our relief pitchers, given the market right now I would absolutely be trading all of them. Strike while the market is insanely hot for that type of talent. Plus we have guys like Magnifico coming soon to ease the blow. We won't be competing next year anyway so having guys like Barnes, Magnifico, Knebel is a fine start and can add a couple guys similar to Boyer, Torres like we did this year.
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I admit it'll be interesting to see how he finishes the season at 1b from an offensive standpoint. I personally have never liked Gatewood and still don't understand the love for his supposed projectability. If anything Nottingham most likely end up at 1b over him as his bat projects to be better overall
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Lucroy Trades/Proposals (part 4)
MKE81 replied to wildcat2237's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
He shouldn't be included in this deal. Either he fetches us high end prospects on his own or we wait to have him truly get his velocity and trade him next year for an even higher ransom. If the Indians want Lucroy, what you're asking for isn't out of the question without Smith. Frazier, Bradley, Mejia are already Top 100 and McKinzie will skyrocket up that list after this year. You honestly believe Lucroy, without Smith, will net us that return? I think that's wishful thinking given Gomez (all-star, GG) was netting us Santana, Hader, Houser by himself. That's 2 top 100 and Hader wasn't ranked until before this season. -
Lucroy Trades/Proposals (part 4)
MKE81 replied to wildcat2237's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Agree with others regarding McKinzie. He absolutely must be in any return. I would do what it took to get a return of Zimmer, Bradley, McKinzie, Mejia, Hillman. I'm assuming Frazier won't be traded. Lucroy, Smith + 1-2 should get this done. I would love to get McKinzie and Hillman in return regardless of who's traded as we'd get multiple young SPs (righty and lefty) who project well and pound the zone. Add Zimmer to the OF with Braun, Phillips (not to mention Santana, Ray, Clark, etc) would be outstanding. Bradley a legit 1b prospect with power who gets on base (lefty too). A top rated catching prospect (lefty) to compete with Nottingham. Cream always rises; load up with talent and let the players figure it out with performance. Absolutely worst case I want McKinzie + 2 of Zimmer, Bradley, Mejia in a return if we're trading with the Indians -
Lucroy Trades/Proposals (part 3)
MKE81 replied to A Swing and A Drive's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Gallo's ceiling is that of Davis? Oh, that's rich. Gallo has destroyed the minor leagues in terms of power. At 21 last year if he received 550 AB he had the pace of 30HR. Give Davis 550 AB this year he's on pace for 38HR. He's 6yrs older too AND he can't play in the NL because he's a massive black hole in the field. Which is why he's spending more and more time at DH (not because the As need to get Crisp, etc in the lineup). Gallo is an interesting player no doubt but having a 5 hitter that could be 250/350 with 40HR+ who actually plays the field you will take all day every day, especially when the rest of the team are high OBP, toolsy players with power/speed/strong defense. -
Lucroy Trades/Proposals (part 3)
MKE81 replied to A Swing and A Drive's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
If Lucroy isn't traded to CLE then Smith should be. Need to get a couple of their Top 12 prospects -
No. They don't have to spend anything. The salary floor rules are simply that the team must pay out that much in contracts. So, if they don't meet the floor, then they just have to pay the players who played for them extra money. This is an idiotic contract, the same as Henson's was the moment he signed it. When you can get 90% of a player for 20% of the price, it's a dumb deal. They are now set on spending 25% of their cap space on C's (assuming they trade Monroe) who really aren't that good. Once again, John Hammond negotiated against himself and lost. Actually, yes they do. The cap is 94M and teams must spend 90% of that. If they fail to do so in contracts they write a check for the difference, which is then divided among the players on the roster at season's end (which you stated). But they're still spending at least 90% of that cap number hence they MUST pay that dollar amount. You can believe Plumlee and Henson aren't worth 4/52 and 4/44 but the market absolutely says otherwise. Henson is actually underpaid based on the market. Why else do you think player's are getting absurd contracts for their actual skill set? It's the market due to the new cap. Henson, if given 30mpg, will post a double-double plus blocks/altering shots. Plumlee has put up 8/8 in 25mpg in the past and he's a better player now than at that time. Most importantly, who are better, and cheaper, options than Henson and Plumlee that fit the Bucks system? I'll wait.... The cap number is rising again next year to low-100M so if Plumlee is given more time due to the absence of Monroe and continues to perform well he would have received a larger contract next year than he just signed hence saving us money. Plumlee, like Henson, needs more and consistent PT as they're effective when on the floor. They both fit the mold for what this team targets in general - length, athleticism - and in regard to their position - rebounding, shot blocking/altering and better defense than Monroe, which absolutely will be traded to have the Henson/Plumlee combo at C. Is Plumlee worth 4/52M in general? Absolutely not. But it's the market. Henson, if on the market now, would get a heck of a lot more than the 4/44 he's under. Just like Middleton would get a lot more than he signed for (potentially close to a max contract). It's why they're working on locking up Giannis for 5yrs longer right now otherwise when he's a FA getting that max contract will be more expensive. It's not Hammond it's the market. If you don't think these guys have crunched the numbers for what they currently have locked up, what they're looking at locking up for the future (Giannis then Parker) then there's nothing else to say as you're free to believe what you want but this is the reality of it. The focal point players will be here long-term and built around.
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Jon Leuer got 4/42. Solomon Hill 4/48. Plumlee is a great fit in this scheme and is more talented than both those players. Mike Conley hasn't made one all-star game and he got 5/153. With the cap rising this year, and again next, teams HAVE to spend at least 90% of cap number
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How many starts does Garza have this year? Let's throw Garza under the bus because he performed poorly last year while also pitching injured. Not like he's had 8yrs straight of sub-4 ERA or anything previously. Should Cravy take Peralta's spot?
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2016 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
MKE81 replied to 1992casey's topic in MLB Draft & International Signings
UL site has Ray with 44-52 SB numbers as well so that's probably the correct number. I first saw film on Ray yesterday after we selected him. Reminds me of the Trent Clark pick. Both lefty, and play and will try to stick in CF but very well could be moving to a corner spot. Both will hit for solid average, get on base, have some power and will steal bases. Clark being more of pure hitter while Ray with more power and speed. But the irrational thought process of this board continues to boggle my mind, which is why I've mainly stuck to looking at the minor league box scores and nothing else. But the draft is a big thing so I had to click on this thread. Not surprised one bit by the remarks and tone on here. Ray, like Clark, is never going to be a sexy pick. Ever. They both do everything "well" but aren't elite in anything (one can argue Ray is elite in speed/base running though). There is absolutely nothing wrong with this. And both killed it for Team USA. I don't think I read one mock where he was predicted to be selected lower than 5. He's a consensus elite player in this draft. I understand the Brewers need elite starting pitching but there were so many red flags around Puk, Groome that it's not worth the gamble when someone like Ray is sitting on your doorstep. It's not a safe pick, it's a smart pick. Load the organization with talent and let the cream rise. The Cardinals have been playoff caliber year in and year out lately and they don't have superstar position players - they have players that do most, or all, things well. They're solid all-around players who impact the game. Ben Zobrist, Matt Carpenter, etc don't have one elite tool yet they contribute mightily to the team's success. I'll take that all day every day regardless of the position played. Not many great starting pitchers are found in the first round anyway. Stack your board and draft according to it -
Heading into tonight's game Davis has been absolutely awful outside of 12ABs. And he's already 0-2 tonight, which isn't factored in below. 8% of Davis' ABs this year have resulted in 12-12, 12HR, 18rbi, 12 runs (9HR are solo) 92% of Davis' ABs this year have resulted in 167/211/203/414, 3 doubles, 1 triple, 0HR, 11rbi, 6 runs, 5bb, 40K in 138 ABs 33% of his games at DH because he sucks in the field. 20% of his games in LF he's been replaced defensively. Santana was very productive until his injury, which started at the beginning of the month. Optioning him because a nagging injury is affecting his performance? HUH? He's 23 years old and starting to scratch the surface of his potential. That's a horrendous idea. But please continue to tell us how amazing Davis is and a premier power bat leading the league in HR. Let's just ignore 92% of his offensive production, or lack thereof, and nonexistent defense. And other people saying they're disappointed in Santana. Disappointed? Unreal. This board is nothing short of simple minded and over reactionary
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Lucroy Trades/Proposals (part 2)
MKE81 replied to Austin Tatious's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
They can still trade for Lucroy although I've always thought he wouldn't end up in TX anyway. They gave up nothing for a guy who will be a career backup. This guy doesn't impact their catching situation. -
Agree that Walsh shouldn't be relegated to pinch hitting. He needs to play as he can hit and will get on base - should spend enough time at 2b and 3b to get plenty of ABs on the year but should be the main platoon guy with Scooter. Rivera and Villar solely splitting time stunts their development, specifically Rivera who can be a solid regular due to his excellent defense. They need to play every day or get 400 ABs between playing several different spots. If that doesn't happen Villar stays at SS and Rivera at 2b in AAA - at least that's what I'd do. But I can easily see Rivera making the team as he's earned a spot based on performance. If that happens then I can see Walsh/Flores being top bats off the bench to get on base whereas Rivera mainly there to fill in at all 3 IF spots to get his PT with Walsh working in here and there in the field
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2016 Opening Day Lineup (and 2016 Batting Order Discussion)
MKE81 replied to pacopete4's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Scooter isn't going to be the 2b of the future so I'd platoon him and trade him at some point. Walsh gets on base and needs to get PT there for that reason alone. I'd send Rivera to AAA to play 2b every day and let him continue to develop. Perez was just ok last year but over winter and continuing into spring he looks much improved. Given he can cover 3 IF spots I'd roll with him and Walsh as backups. -
I don't think minor league numbers should matter when both guys are 28 and 30yrs old having played at least 3yrs in the majors. Presley didn't hit "a little bit better" than Kirk in spring - he hit a lot better. He had better ABs; more consistent contact and a better approach. Has more BBs than Ks as opposed to Kirk having 4x as many Ks than BBs. Based on spring performance Presley easily is the choice. However, CF is the main spot that lacks a true defender (after Broxton) so I can easily see them keeping Kirk. At this point I don't care who they keep as long as Broxton/Flores get the majority of PT.
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I prefer Morales over Cappy. However, Cappy has looked very good this spring and some spots are earned during spring performance - his was earned no doubt. It doesn't matter this year anyway.
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Lucroy Trades/Proposals (part 2)
MKE81 replied to Austin Tatious's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
How is his trade value low? He's one of the best catchers in baseball. 2015 doesn't negate his body of work and he hit well in the 2nd half. He's healthy and looks like his 2014 self. Based on past performance and brewer fan opinions he is one of the best catchers in baseball. Fan graphs steamer projections rank him tied for 14th best catcher. More like middle of the road. Excuse me while I enjoy a hearty laugh. What purpose does anybody serve on the baseball side of an organization when anybody in the world can look at the results of an analytical model to determine who's the most valuable? Because we all know every single variable is calculated in those models (i.e. intelligence, effort, preparation, makeup, etc). Silly me Those same folks at Fangraphs one year ago ranked Lucroy as the 6th best catcher (and they say 6th only because he spells Lind at 1b therefore his value as a catcher drops a bit otherwise he's easily top 5 - "He’s elite in every sense of the word." People who solely rely on Fangraphs rankings, WAR, OPS or the like understand far less about the game and how to evaluate a player's skill set and contributions than they'd like to think. Those numbers are used as one of many tools to evaluate. It's not the final verdict

