MadThinker88

Why offer him $12MM? You might be bidding against yourself. In a standard negotiation you don't go in with your best possible at the start. You start with a lower figure and adjust from there.. Personally, I think starting with a MAJOR LEAGUE DEAL and $5MM plus incentives (multiple levels to get it to grow) might be all it takes now..

I understand the desire to extend Knebel but why should he accept a deal like that (giving up 3 years of free agency). Relievers especially good closers and good setup people are finally getting increased salaries. Consider the deals gotten (via arbitration/ single year agreements) by Cody Allen.. Year Age Tm Salary SrvTm Sources Notes/Other Sources 2013 24 Cleveland Indians $492,600 0.076 contracts 2014 25 Cleveland Indians $515,400 1.076 contracts 2015 26 Cleveland Indians $547,100 2.076 contracts 2016 27 Cleveland Indians $4,150,000 3.076 2017 28 Cleveland Indians $7,350,000 4.076 contracts 2018 29 Cleveland Indians $10,575,000 5.076 Earliest Free Agent: 2019 And Bryan Shaw got 3 yrs/ $27M as a free agent during this considered "slow" off season. I believe it would need to be a greater AAV to get Corey to sign a deal to give up any arbitration or free agency years..

Interesting article noted at Fangraphs today. https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-rays-ditched-their-bad-fastball-hitters/ While attempting to provide some explanation to the Rays moves (Dickerson, Souza, LoMo, etc) it might also illuminate an issue impacting the value of Keon B & Domingo S... Whiffs vs. Four-Seamers Rank Player Results 1 Corey Dickerson 172 2 Mike Zunino 133 3 Steven Souza Jr. 121 4 Keon Broxton 116 5 Mark Reynolds 116 6 Cody Bellinger 115 7 Scott Schebler 107 8 Logan Morrison 107 9 Domingo Santana 105 10 Giancarlo Stanton 105 SOURCE: Baseball Savant

Those crickets are likely the clearest indication that Lucroy is no longer a top 10 catcher in baseball...

Sorry, I do not see the Mariners as a trade fit, especially for anything of value in return. I can understand your interest in moving Jesus. But you haven't answered why the Mariners would be interested in adding him. Here is what I see: 1) The Mariners have one of the weakest farm systems in the league. 2) The Mariners are at best the 3rd best team in the AL West (behind Astros & Angels). 3) The Mariners this off season traded for (currently injured, expected back in April) Ryon Healy to be their 1B. 4) IF the Mariners actually wanted to deepen or upgrade their 1B position, they could just spend money to bring in one of the many free agent 1B types.

To quote Hawk.... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sSgcoUe6PPU

I was wondering how to address this. Greg Allen has been having a good game as well.

Ah, it wasn't me that said that. I believe you need the Shaggy video to bring the point home

And this is where we disagree/debate. We are discussing a move difference of 8 weeks (mid-April call up vs mid-June call up). I think Burnes will in time be a fine pitcher. I do not see him as the impact changer/ needle mover in 2018. The lessons he will learn/ absorb this season (taking some lumps along the way) will result in a much better pitcher in 2019/ 2020/ and so forth. So for some rough math: is 8 more weeks of service time in 2018 worth and extra $10MM+ down the road? I don't believe it is. You may feel differently. I think so long as injuries can be avoided, DS has brought in a number of depth guys that can be cycled thru in case 1 or more guys is not performing well enough during the first few months of the season. Its the great thing about baseball - So many games are played that a poor start/ bad stretch can be dealt with and in some cases overcome. GMs earn their stripes by building not just 25 man rosters, but building 40 man rosters & assorted other players to be called upon in times of need.

The Super 2 cost isn't the extra money paid getting to arbitration a year sooner, its the large cost of getting 4 chances at the arbitration process. I've never seen anyone get less money for the next season after going thru arbitration. Heck there was someone that got a raise (not completely sure of the amount at this time) after missing around 95% of last season. To expand further I'm going to use Trevor Bauer as an example. After a few years of ups & downs, he has finally started putting it together & is performing at a good level (not great All-Star level, but also not as a run of the mill starter). After his 2nd trip thru arbitration Bauer is getting paid over $6.5MM for 2018 & is on path for 2 more trips thru arbitration. My guess is Bauer is likely looking at $11MM to $15MM for that 4th (& extra) year of arbitration assuming his performance level holds or improves. Now Burnes might perform better than Bauer or he might perform worse over multiple years. At this time we don't know how it will shake out. I'm not looking to compare them as pitchers. My point is that extra year of arbitration has a greater impact than $3MM over 1 season (using the Knebel example you noted). Edit: Player getting the arbitration raise after being injured was Shelby Miller. He tossed 22 IP going 2-2 with 4.09 ERA and a WHIP of 1.455 & got a 200k raise (from 4.7MM to 4.9MM)..

They’d only have to keep him in the minors for about two weeks to gain an extra year of control. But keeping him down till June/ mid-June helps to avoid super 2 arbitration. Like it or not, MKE is a smaller market club and lacks the DEEP pockets of some other clubs like the Cubs/ Dodger/ NY Yankees/ Boston. DS needs to take measured steps/a long term approach in order to help this club remain in any contention window starting in 2018 and going forward. I personally do not see having Burnes up in late April (vs mid-June) moves the contention needle much for 2018. As a rookie making his debut he likely will have to work thru a few issues during his 1st season plus. Its not like he will arrive and suddenly be at Corey Kluber/ Max Scherzer level of play..

FYI - it appears that the Tribe/ Brewer game on Monday 2/26 will be shown MLB Network at 8E/ 7C. Scheduled starters: Tomlin (for CLE) vs Guerra (for MKE). I'm guessing both are slated to go 2 IP (or a certain pitch count).. I know the game is being played in the afternoon so the MLB Network broadcast will be tape delay. From a CLE perspective: I will be interested to see who follows Tomlin to the mound for the Tribe. Across 3 games so far, no in game action for Kluber, Carassco, Salazar, A Miller or Cody Allen. I understand Salazar is a few weeks behind the rest of the staff so his being on the list in not surprising. The other 4 being on this list is a little curious...

I believe so UNLESS something crazy happens..

In other news Braun has been fitted with a "bubble wrap suit". Being its a clear material he has been reminded to wear underwear before putting on the suit. He has been urged to wear the suit at all times when not at the ballpark, even when sleeping or taking a shower...

In case it was missed, as the various divisions are being shown, the top 10 farm systems are being held back for individual reveal/ ranking. Since the Brewers were shown now, they will not be in the top 10 rankings.. At this point we know 7 of the top 10 farm systems - Toronto, NYY, Tampa, Philly, Atlanta, ChiSox, & Cinci,

You can remove the Carlos Carrasco line from the list above. If he becomes available, its because he is injured and would be missing all/ the remainder of 2018 (& a chunk of 2019). Otherwise, he will not become available in trade (at least for anything close to the price your willing to pay). Carlos is good, under contract at a reasonable cost for the next few seasons and the Indians are playoff contenders in a weak division. Cannot reasonably see how he would become available in a trade. Pitching is key. It is more valuable than hitting or power/ homers. Those that have it are in the better positions to succeed.

Agreed with the bolded part. I'm not saying Anderson sucks but he, and the rotation as a whole, don't match up well with the other contenders. I was just responding to the idea that Anderson would be able to step into 1 of the top 2 spots of the various playoff contenders/ teams. He would be shutout of more teams then what that poster believed (more than just Washington)...

Chase Anderson is a fine pitcher. That is not a knock against him. He is good. That said he does not replace/ move anyone out of the top 2 spots in Cleveland (Kluber/ Carassco) or Houston (Keuchel/ Verlander).

For clarification - I wasn't the person saying Mejia was worth 3 proven MLB players. Someone else suggested sending 3 players for Mejia & McKenzie. I don't see that happening from the CLE perspective. McKenzie goes no where. In case you missed it: 1 of the tweets from HH19 suggested that the MKE cost for Mejia would be DSantana, F Peralta and J Nottingham (tweeted Feb 19). I could see/ understand CLE looking for more than DSantana in a deal for Mejia & I also get the idea of including FPeralta for both sides. I am kinda stumped why Nottingham would be involved as CLE has a different catcher (Eric Haase) that was added to the 40 man this off season & profiles more like their normal Catcher (D first, RH, hits for power if he connects). If its the inclusion of Nottingham holding up the trade, I would hope the teams could pivot to either a different player or possibly a couple of lottery tickets (ie someone not on a top 30 list and hasn't played in full season minor league ball yet).. One other note: IF CLE acquired DSantana in a trade without sending to MKE one of Chisenhall or Kipnis, they probably have another deal or 2 in place as there would be a roster logjam.

As posted on mlb.com https://www.mlb.com/news/yankees-rays-d-backs-swing-three-way-deal/c-266808336 The Rays acquired Yankees No. 8 prospect Nick Solak and D-backs No. 4 prospect Anthony Banda. Tampa Bay will also receive two players to be named later from Arizona. D-backs get: Steven Souza Jr. (from TB) Taylor Widener (Yankees' No. 14 prospect) Yankees get: Brandon Drury (from ARI) Rays get: Anthony Banda (D-backs' No. 4 prospect) Nick Solak (Yankees' No. 8 prospect) Two players to be named later (from ARI) I'm liking this deal more & more for Tampa & Arizona...

Guys, are we sure that Joel Sherman got it right - Widener to the Yanks from Arizona as part of the deal?? I went looking for states on the pitcher going to NY & all I found was a guy that was already in the NYY organization (in High A Tampa) last season. Before posting this I double checked the pitching stats for all 3 minor league groups - Arizona, Tampa & the Yanks...

Oh my. This means Drury covers 2B for the Yanks & the 2 kids (Torres/ Andujar) are able to focus on covering 3B..

Time to share some info/ insight. 1) Yan Gomes & Roberto Perez have multi year contracts in place to catch for Cleveland. As a small market team it is not in their nature to just bench/ release chunks of salary. They will explore ways to maximize the assets which includes exploring trades & increasing a player's position flexibility. 2) Cleveland values the D behind the plate more than the offensive the player could bring at that spot. Offense is seen as a bonus. 3) Mejia has not even played a game at AAA yet. While his bat is believed to be ready, his D can use more work/ seasoning especially as Cleveland is a heavy favorite to win its division/ make the post-season. In a rebuilding spot (like Miami if JT Realmuto was gone), he could easily break camp or be a June call up. 4) Comparing/ Contrasting the numbers of the Age 22 season is inaccurate. Mejia turned 22 in October 2017 so he played AA at age 21 & made his MLB debut already. Additionally the Southern League (Huntsville) is more of an offensive league then the Eastern League (Akron). 5) Salome got rated as a top 100 prospect 1 time (Baseball Prospectus #79 before start of the 2009 season). 2018 is the 2nd year Mejia is being rated inside the top 50 by multiple sources. Someone (other than fans like us) must feel Mejia has a great likelihood to succeed in the majors.

Ha! I get that you are in a unique position of being both a Brewer and Indian fan, but be careful not to overvalue the Indians prospects. I can't think of a trade in recent history where a prospect's trade value was inflated over that of an established MLB player. The Brewers also shouldn't be in the business of shipping of prospects for other prospects. If the Indians want Santana, they'll need to pay a good price for him and only him. I would doubt any other MLB pieces or prospects would be going back to the Indians. If they value Mejia that highly, they'll just keep him. Overvaluing can go both ways. Not all current big league are worth the same value. Not all current big league players are worth multiple prospects. Not all current big league players are worth more than a single prospect. Not all prospects have the same value. Since the trade to get Yelich I have seen many fans on here think DSantana should bring a large or comparable return (to Yelich). I think that is way off. Many posters point to DSantana's power and think it should bring a premium. When considering how many homers were hit & how many people hit 20+ homers in 2017, the value of power might never be lower. Considering DSantana never hit 30 homers in a single season before (at any professional level or levels combined), there is an open question if he could do it again, especially if not playing every day. The same fans either ignore or brush off the defensive shortcomings of Domingo. The values of Yelich & DSantana are greatly different. Yelich has much much more value in comparison. There is greater team control with Yelich. He brings a better overall offensive game and is a better all around ballplayer (hitting/running/ fielding). I've written it on this board before- DSantana has value. Perhaps it is more value to the Brewers than to any other team. MLB Network did its top 100 players ranking last week. 4 Brewers were listed & the highest Brewers were Cain & Yelich (in the 40s). Braun & Knebel got the other 2 Brewer mentions. IIRC they were both in the lower 25 spots. Now on the other side of the equation. The value of Mejia has gone up since the failed Lucroy trade of 2016. Earlier this offseason someone on here (it was either EyeBlack or ReillyMc) suggested that Lewis Brinson & Mejia had roughly the same prospect value as both players were showing up on prospect lists near each other. I can understand that viewpoint. I would counter that Mejia has slightly more value than Brinson in that he plays a position (catcher) where finding offense is generally secondary to defensive ability (calling a game/ framing pitches/ controlling baserunners). Mejia's calling card is his offense. His defensive ability has improved but it still needs some more work. I can say that having watched Mejia in person in 2015 (when Low-A Lake County visited Beloit) & in 2017 (watching a couple games he caught in AA Akron). Additionally, while Brinson is a highly rated OF, there are still other OF prospects ranked ahead of him. Mejia, even with his faults, is the top rated catching prospect. He is not a 'throw-in' on any trade. He is a valuable asset. So we have the question: Is Mejia for DSantana a fair/ equal swap? Brewer fans will say no, they need more. Tribe fans will say no, they need something more with DSantana for Mejia. Moving away from including DSantana in a deal, it would mean multiple Brewer prospects to get Mejia alone. Hence my reference earlier "it would sting". In the end imho I see both sides moving away WITHOUT a deal being done.

Hell no - When did Mejia become Buster Posey? Thats a really big over pay for Mejia and i like him. Santana/Burnes/Hiura gets you Mejia/McKenzie McKenzie is the big untouchables in a trade with Cleveland. Yes, Mejia could be gotten in a trade but not McKenzie. And to get Mejia, it "would sting".