paul253
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Everything posted by paul253
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Would you trade Segura for Shelby Miller?
paul253 replied to paul253's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
I think if St. Louis called today and offered the deal I would have to accept. I like Segura a lot and am glad Milwaukee finally found a SS. But we still haven't found the answer to our pitching woes. And unfortunately the answer doesn't seem to be in our system right now either. As Crew stated this organization isn't going to progress with a bunch of 3's 4's and 5's which is what he have now. I can envision a scenario in which Peralta tops out as a #2 but that's about it. Unfortunately I cannot see any way that Melvin trades Segura, even if the return is a 23 year old with ace like potential who is under control for 5 more seasons. Just like I can't see any way that he'd trade Carlos Gomez for pitching either. We need pitching very very badly but it doesn't seem like Melvin is willing to do what it will take to acquire that pitching. -
Would you trade Segura for Shelby Miller?
paul253 replied to paul253's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Hasn't Melvin and Attanasio made it clear they aren't going to "not really compete" and why would they do that with Braun, Lucroy, Gomez, all in their primes, and one more year of Ramirez? "Not really competing" will mean attendance under 2 million. Trust me. They've made it clear that they aren't going to TRY to "not really compete". Unfortunately that's been the case the past few seasons anyway. I think the fans would understand taking a step back one year if it actually means moving forward after that. This as opposed to the "stuck in neutral" Melvin and Mark A. seem to think the fans are ok with. I think Mark A. needs to give his fans more credit. We aren't buying this "if we are .500 and in the wild card discussion until July that'll be good enough" strategy he seems willing to settle for. Beside, I may have spoken incorrectly. Moving Gennett to SS for a year wouldn't exactly be giving up, especially if it resulted in the acquisition of Shelby Miller. I think it may be pretty bad defensively, but the offense would be close to equal while the pitching would presumably take a huge step forward. A defensive minded SS who can take over late in games would help ease the defensive pain of Gennett playing SS. -
Would you trade Segura for Shelby Miller?
paul253 replied to paul253's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Is there ANY chance Scooter Gennett could handle shortstop for a year? He was drafted as a SS and played there a few times in his first season. I know defensively he'd be well below average but it would solve two huge issues Milwaukee has going into next season. The first obviously would be figuring out the Weeks/Gennett issue because now they'd both be playing. Then you'd move Segura for Miller who has ace like potential. After next season Weeks leaves, Gennett moves back to 2nd and you deal with the SS issue then. I think if the Brewers were to acknowledge that they are not really going to compete next season that would be a move they could handle. Maybe we could even throw in one of our outfield prospects and get Matt Adams included in the deal and then we wouldn't have to resign Corey Hart. Segura and Davis for Miller and Adams. Gennett plays SS for a year and Aoki goes back to hitting leadoff. A rotation of Gallardo, Lohse, Miller, Peralta and Estrada/Thornburg. Obviously you'd have to sign a defensive minded SS to take over late in games but that shouldn't be all that to find. -
Would you trade Segura for Shelby Miller?
paul253 replied to paul253's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
This is where the Brewers terrible player development the past few years comes back to hurt. If they had a decent shortstop anywhere in the system above A ball this deal might be worth it. I'd have a really hard time turning down Shelby Miller and I'd have a real hard time believing St. Louis would turn down Segura with all the excess pitching they have. It would be a win-win deal for both teams IF Milwaukee had someone who could actually play shortstop. -
I read an article the other day that St. Louis was looking for a shortstop and would trade from a position of strength (starting pitching) to get one. The two names mentioned in the article were Lance Lynn and Shelby Miller. I know people here would loathe trading Segura, especially after what we've thrown out a SS the past few years, but what if it brought back Shelby Miller? Obviously pitching has been our main issue the last few years and we have no real ace type pitchers in the entire system. Miller is only 23 and under control until 2019. He put up very solid numbers in his full season in the big leagues. So my question. Assuming it was offered, would you trade Segura for Miller (or are those two close enough in value where a throw in on either side would get it done)?
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The Brewers already have prospects better than or on the same level as Davis, Gindl, Schafer and Gennett. What I was getting at is that the Brewers system was already weak before those 4 graduated off the list. Regardless of how you feel about those 4 they were all top 15 prospects in the Brewers system no matter whose list you were looking at. You graduate 4 of your top 15 prospects from an already weak system so anyone who checks in with a worse system than Milwaukee is really in terrible shape.
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I don't see how Coulter was mishandled He should have seen Helena his first season when he was dominating the Arizona League. If he held his own there I would have been fine with an immediate promotion to Wisconsin this past season. Since he never saw Helena last season I think that should have been his first stop this season with instructionals or extended spring training or whatever it is they do until the Helena season starts before that. Instead they ship him off to Wisconsin where he plays sparingly and struggles when he does play. I know he's still young and all and hopefully he can put 2013 behind him. Regarding the list, I feel sorry for any franchise that has a worse system than us, especially with Davis, Gindl Schafer and Gennett no longer consider prospects. The Milwaukee Brewers need to get their act together.
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The Brewers really need big years in 2014 from Clint Coulter and Devin Williams. I've been puzzled by the Brewers treatment of Coulter so far. Despite dominating Arizona in 2012 he was never promoted to Helena. Then to start the year this year he skips Helena completely and goes to Wisconsin, where he struggles. Then he goes back down. Didn't seem to play all that regularly. Had some injuries. I'm not nearly as optimistic on him as I was at the beginning of the season, partly because of his rough year and partly because, as usual, the Brewers have seemed to mishandled his development so far. The Brewers also have to absolutely hit a home run with their 2014 first round pick. Whoever they pick needs to be their top overall prospect, or at the very worst second behind Jimmy Nelson. And additional hits with their comp pick and second round pick would be a huge plus too.
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Gardner is a very good offensive player. Almost unstoppable when he's on his game due to his size. His biggest problems are lack of conditioning and foul trouble. Hopefully Buzz sticks with playing him and OTule at the same time like he started to do last season instead of only substituting one for the other. This year may be the last time they are able to play "big" in a long time as Buzz is absolutely pathetic and recruiting and developing size. I think Marquette's success depends on how the freshmen progress. Wilson's injury is really too bad. I saw him play in HS a bunch of times and the kid was amazing. Granted he wasn't always playing against the toughest competition but he could basically do whatever he wanted. Even Germantown couldn't stop him. He can nail the 3's too. Last year long range shooting was a huge flaw so hopefully Wilson, along with JaJuan Johnson, can help improve that. Burton is a freak but is a bit undersized. It'll be interesting to see how much PT he gets behind Mayo and Juan Anderson. This is easily their most talented freshmen class since the James/McNeal/Matthews class. Hopefully they can enjoy the same amount of success.
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Things looking even worse now that Joe Rumpel is out a few weeks with an ankle injury.
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So, in order to get a guy like that you need to tank the right year, then get the right ping bong ball, then guess right on which guy is a true superstar. Just for the record, this would be the right year to tank. The projected top pick, Andrew Wiggins, is considered the best player available since Lebron James. And even if you don't win the number one pick the draft is much deeper than in year's past and you can get a quality player even at 5 or 6.
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If Jacob Gatewood fell to #12 I would do cartwheels. This guy, to me, is this years Javier Baez. Should have the best bat-speed in the draft. For the record this is why people like me were suggesting it was better to just play guys like Gindl, Maldonado, and Schafer over Aoki, Lucroy and Gomez and finish with a better pick. I still remember the 2011 draft and badly wanting Lindor or Baez. Jungmann is doing alright but we had a huge hole at SS then. Yeah we got Segura but the presence of Lindor or Baez would have allowed us to move Greinke for pitching.
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Good start for Wisconsin with two wins over Northern Michigan. Nice to see freshman Grant Besse getting into the action with two goals already. Wisconsin's team look like it is set up just like their last to Frozen Four teams. Heavy on the upper classmen, deep, and solid goaltending. I worry a bit about the defensemen but Jack McCabe looks like one of the best in the game. I think this is going to be a good year for Wisconsin. In a side note, Michigan is looking pretty good too. They took care of Boston College and RIT.
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You should never be making a pick based on need ever. I don't care where you are picking you never pick based on need you always take the best player available. If the BPA is a pitcher and you are stacked at pitching guess what you are taking the pitcher because they are the BPA. I disagree. You don't have to always take the BPA or ignore need. I don't know how teams grade players but if a player in a position of need grades just a shade lower than the player you have listed as BPA I see no reason why you can't take the player at the position of need. I agree that if you need, say, a third basemen you don't necessarily take the best available third basemen. But if you have a need for a position and ignore it year after year after year because the BPA does not play that position you create a huge hole in your organization, as the Brewers have at such positions as third base and until recently shortstop and catcher. You can't keep selecting outfielders simply because the best player available plays that position. Right now the Brewers have a huge surplus of outfielders and a lack of quality pitching, third basemen, and catchers. While I don't want the Brewers to reach with their pick I can't say I won't be disappointed if they selected yet another outfielder.
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The problem I have with signing a FA pitcher is this: Tyler Thornburg should be in the starting rotation. But short of a complete spring training blowup by Wily Peralta or Marco Estrada we all know Thornburg would be the guy sent to the bullpen to make room for a guy like Bronson Arroyo. Personally I'd rather just take a chance and see what we have in Thornburg then to sign yet another mid 30's kinda-but-that good starting pitcher who is going to cost us three years and $30 million. Just sign a guy or two to a minor league deal for the sake of depth. In AAA next season we'll have Nelson, who will probably be the first injury replacement, Hellweg, Jungmann, Burgos, and Pena. You'll likely have Fiers in the bullpen. I get it, that's not exactly a list of future Cy Young Award winners but the fact is we are barely a playoff contender with a 100% healthy team. If we are forced to go 7 or 8 deep in the starting rotation the season will look a lot like this season looked, Arroyo or not. We are not one Bronson Arroyo away from competing for the Central Division. So let's see what we have in our young guys over more than a few mostly meaningless September games. Give Thornburg a season, not a few starts (can you imagine if we had only given Wily Peralta a few starts this year?) Sink or swim with what we have. I'm sick of these so-so FA signings that do nothing more than prop up a bad overall team.
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Rams' Quick and Dirty Top 50 Update
paul253 replied to ramssuperbowl1999's topic in Brewers Minor League Talk
Just because I'm bored I wanted to post my updated top 10 since guys like Gennett, Davis, Gindl, Schafer and Thornburg are no longer eligible 1) Jimmy Nelson - I don't see who else you could put in this position 2) Taylor Jungmann - solid numbers though I'd like to see more K's and fewer walks. 3) Victor Roache - Big time power. Much better 2nd half than 1st. Hopefully he can keep BA and OBP at respectable levels 4) Orlando Arcia - Held his own in Wisconsin though I wouldn't mind seeing him repeat to see what he can do against competition a little closer to his age. 5) Devin Williams -based entirely on potential 6) Tyrone Taylor - Great numbers at Wisconsin 7) Johnny Hellweg - Ton of potential but won't go anywhere until he can learn how to control his pitches 8) Ariel Pena - Again, tons of potential but needs to cut down on walks 9) Clint Coulter - I really want to believe in him. Injuries and head-scratching organizational placements seemed to make it a lost year though. 10) Tyler Wagner - Hard thrower with solid numbers but is kind of old for his level. I'd love to see him succeed in the first half at BC and then get moved up to Huntsville next year. 11) Hunter Morris - His year wasn't really that bad. Yeah he only hit .243 but he drew walks about once every 11 at bats and hit a crap load of home runs. Another year in Nashville will do him some good and I still have hope for him 12) Mitch Haniger - Really slowed down once he hit BC. I hope I'm wrong but I view him as a 4th outfielder 13) Nick Delmonico - I'm told he has some upside 14) D'vontrey Richardson - thought he was progressing very well before he called it quits. Put up solid numbers in BC but hardly ever walked and is already 25. 15) Jorge Lopez - flashed potential last season but needs more consistency. This organization definitely needs an infusion of high ceiling talent. After Jimmy Nelson I don't see anyone who is a for sure major league regular. -
I still say it's much more about who's picking than when you pick...look at that, the Giants got Posey, Wheeler, Lincecum, and Bumgarner, one at 5, one at 6, and two at 10. That's excellent scouting right there...man am I jealous. It is about who you pick but you can't deny how beneficial it is now in the MLB to have a top ten pick. Had we had a top 10 pick last season we wouldn't have lost our first rounder when we signed Lohse. If we had a top ten pick this year we wouldn't lose it if we decide to sign a FA. Also, and I don't follow this much, but I understand you receive more money to sign international free agents AND you receive more money to sign your draft picks when your record isn't as good. It's not entirely about just getting to pick three or four spots earlier. It is about who you pick. I know that. And maybe the Brewers will wind up with the guy they want anyway. But there is a reason certain guys get picked higher than others. Sometimes it's due to money but it's almost always due to their level or talent. While the Brewers may end up with a very good player at #12 the level of talent of the players available at that pick is probably going to be a notch lower than the players available at #5. The MLB draft is a crap shoot and truth be told I'd trade this #12 pick to St Louis for a few of their scouts. But since it is such a crap shoot I'd prefer to have as many options as possible. You can't say that there is no real difference when trying to decide who to draft when your options are either 1) Players A, B , C, D, E, F, G, H, I and J or 2) Players A, B, C, D, and E . Yeah maybe Player D is the guy you wanted but it doesn't hurt to have the opportunity to take Players F, G, H, I and J, especially when those players are generally viewed to be the better players or the payers with more potential. Look at the 2011 draft. At the time we all thought we got a couple of good players but truth be told there were 9 guys picked ahead of Jungmann that I'd prefer to have right now. And the Brewers didn't have a shot at any of them because they were gone by the time we picked. Not saying Jungmann was a bad pick or isn't going to be a solid major leaguer but the fact that we picked so low cost us a shot at a number of very good players. I'd be willing to guess that moving 5 spots back in the past two weeks is going to end up costing us at least 2 players that are going to be better than whomever we pick. Hopefully I'm wrong.
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Newcomb and Finnegan were guys I was looking at as they'd both fill a huge need as LHP's. Any chance Tyler Beede falls to #12? I assume if he corrects his control issues the answer would be no. Another name I've mentioned before was Kyle Schwarber. I watched him a bit in the CWS and he looks like a beast. Probably doesn't stick a catcher but he'd be a big time power guy who could probably move through the system fairly quickly.
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I forgot about Toronto getting that extra pick. Kind of an extra slap in the face. On top of Toronto losing today to put is a tie that they win but they also get an additional pick before us. A few weeks ago I was thinking we could grab a college guy with ace potential. Now I think the most likely bet is a hard throwing high school righty.
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If I were the Brewers I'd look to move Estrada. I think he's been pitching over his head the second half of the season and he'll regress to his normal 4.50 ERA type pitcher next year. Maybe we can find a team desperate for pitching that is willing to give up a solid but not spectacular prospect for him.
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I'm actually counting only 9 teams with records worse than the Brewers. In reverse order: 1) Houston 2) Miami 3) White Sox 4) Cubs 5) Twins 6) Seattle 7) Colorado 8) Mets 9) Philadelphia The Brewers can still finished tied with Toronto and/or SF. We'd win the tie break with SF and lose the tie break with Toronto. So the only way we can get the #10 pick and not risk losing our first round pick should we sign a FA who turned down a QO is if we lose and Toronto wins.
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Here it is: 1) Gallardo 2) Lohse 3) Peralta 4) Estrada 5) Thornburg Forget free agents. Get your finances in order. Get through the Ramirez and Weeks' contracts and see what you have. Hellweg needs to figure out how to throw strikes. Nelson is probably ok in Nashville for a year but he and Burgos and Fiers could be injury options. Jungmann moves up to Nashville as well and so does Pena probably. I don't think the Brewers are a playoff contender so figure out what you have hope that everything falls into place for 2015. The absolute last thing we need is another Kyle Lohse type signing that is going to take us from a 76 win team to an 81 win team.

