Greenleaf1
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Everything posted by Greenleaf1
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Not to rain on the Espino love (myself included) but we've probably seen enough at this point that I don't see who we'd take out of the rotation to keep him up after this game. I'm only following on Gameday but he seems to be missing way out of the zone a LOT, and getting a lot of help from the Cubs on bunt blunders and from the heavy inward wind. Guerra will be ready with the off day Monday to start in his spot next, and Davies/Nelson seem to have saved their spots for now. Still glad he's getting the chance and hope to see him again at some point, but doubt that he stays up now.
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Braun said today that he'd have an update on Saturday. Hopefully that will be good news.
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Matt Garza - Significant Trade Asset??
Greenleaf1 replied to Jose Cardenal1's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
I really don't think the Brewers current offense is a fluke, but we are probably due for some regression as the season continues. If some of our top prospects can come up and keep this momentum going then we have a shot to make the playoffs, otherwise our rotation will torpedo any shot at even the wild card. Bashing out 11 runs every game to win is just not sustainable. However, it's certainly not outside the realm of possibility that we're in or within a few games of 1st place by the trade deadline. If that were the case, and Garza is still pitching well, and the pitching in general has improved (lots of ifs), I could see the Brewers keeping Garza through the end of the year, then revisiting a trade for him with his $5M option in the offseason. That way he would have a season plus a few months of good results behind him and that $5M option would look really sweet to a lot of teams out there trying to stay under the luxury tax and in need of a solid #4/#5 guy. However, if Garza is still pitching like he is and the Brewers can't keep up in the NL Central or Wild Card races (or honestly even if they can), I think it makes too much sense to get a great return for Garza while we still can. The fact is he's pitching out of his mind right now compared to his previous years with the Brewers and would have tremendous value to a team looking to make a playoff run, and his relatively low cost could be an intriguing option to teams that either can't afford guys like Cole or Quintana or just aren't willing to meet the big price tag those guys would command. I feel like this year is gravy and the sign of great things to come for the Brewers in 2018. I honestly think the rebuild is almost over, but I don't think it's quite over, and the truth is that Garza won't be around for much if any of this team's next premium window, and I'd rather get something in return for players like that if possible instead of just clinging to pipedreams of the 2nd WC instead of planning for a brighter future. Long post made short: it wouldn't kill me if they decided to keep Garza and revisit trading him during the offseason, but I think you get the best value from players at the trade deadline and I don't think our team is well rounded enough yet to justify holding onto him just for this year. And by next year there are bound to be better options for the rotation. -
I think, given our extreme upper minors depth in CF, that making Broxton the centerpiece in a package that would return someone like Gerrit Cole does make some sense to be thinking about doing. Brinson has quietly made some improvements this year that show that he's just about ready to be a full time Major Leaguer. His walk rate this year is a well above average 11.4%, up from 5.2% at AA with the Rangers last year and up from a seriously low 2.2% at CS last year, while still maintaining a decent K rate of 21.2%. His BABIP is .390 right now but he has put up similarly high numbers at various minor league levels before. He's a plus defender in all 3 spots in the outfield, and he's got a 142 wRC+. There's not much left to prove at AAA, but he needs to get regular playing time in Milwaukee and given the pretty awesome performance from our outfield this year the only way he's going to get to do that is if we trade somebody. I personally prefer Santana to Broxton for any number of reasons, and think he'd be a PERFECT fit in LF for years to come, and Broxton definitely seems like he could take the place of 2 top 100 prospects in a major deal for pitching given that he's very controllable and a proven asset offensively and defensively. Now, some caveats: - It would probably have to be someone other than Gerrit Cole, as I cannot imagine the world of crap that the Pirates GM would take for having to give up Gerrit Cole to get the guy back that they gave up for Jason Rogers. - I'm only really interested in trading Broxton if Braun doesn't get traded, and I think the Brewers should really do everything in their power to trade Braun first before listening on Broxton. If Santana can shift to LF and Brinson/Broxton can maybe split time between CF and RF, I'd probably prefer to get some prospects for Braun and rethink a big TOR trade should Cordell/Phillips prove themselves capable of replacing Broxton in 2018.
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Time to Start Worrying About Villar?
Greenleaf1 replied to Schmi755uwm.edu's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Sogard is having a great week so far but he's kind of a known quantity. His upside is nowhere near what Villar did last year. He's definitely not the answer for the Brewers at 2B, so I wouldn't be so quick to give him a bunch of Villar's playing time. When the whole team gets healthy, Perez is going to need places to play every day, and given the insane offensive production of the entire outfield at this point plus Shaw and Thames, that really only leaves SS and 2B, so if Villar is continuing to struggle in a week or two here I wouldn't be surprised if Perez starts to see some time at 2B, especially against lefties (certainly wasn't expecting heading into this year that Villar was the guy who would need platooning). Until then, there are plenty of spots that need filling out there and Villar has been playing better both offensively and defensively, so let's give him a chance to turn it around. If he can get back to the guy he was last year he'd be tremendously valuable to us as a team or in a trade. -
Matt Garza - Significant Trade Asset??
Greenleaf1 replied to Jose Cardenal1's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
If Garza can pitch close to how he's pitching now until July, I hate to admit it but I think the return for him could be pretty good. I'm not ready to say he can do that yet, been burned by him too many times, but Garza has looked, dare I say it, pretty good so far this year, and a relatively small money commitment for a year and a half of him could get us a couple mid level prospects. -
What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)
Greenleaf1 replied to pete's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
It certainly doesn't hurt our chances to trade Braun to the Dodgers that Andrew Toles tore his ACL and is out for the year. If Bellinger can't keep up his torrid pace or Puig falls off a cliff, that outfield is going to need a big upgrade at the trade deadline from somewhere. Of course Braun is going to need to come back from his current injuries healthy and productive, but injuries to the Dodgers outfield don't hurt his trade value none. -
What are the chances we trade Manny Pina or Jett Bandy at the trade deadline? I know they're both controllable for many years and having them both is good protection in case one of them starts to regress, but would it be worth trying to cash in on their hot start and get something for one of these catchers? Pina seems to be the better all around player so far, could we flip Bandy at the deadline for something much better than what we gave up for him? The Diamondbacks have been off to a good start but need help at catcher, they could be a good match. DBacks catchers: Chris Iannetta .214/.279/.339 in 61 PA (16/4 K/BB) Jeff Mathis .131/.145/.262 in 62 PA (20/1 K/BB) Brewers catchers: Manny Pina .313/.352/.448 in 72 PA (8/4 K/BB) Jett Bandy .281/.333/.531 in 69 PA (15/4 K/BB) We have 3 catchers at AAA that could all probably do a serviceable job as a backup (I know Susac is doing pretty bad since coming back, but between Heineman/Garcia/Susac there should be an ok backup for the rest of the year somewhere in there). I know catchers don't often get traded at the deadline (Lucroy was a notable exception) and you don't want to mess with a good thing, trade away the wrong one of the two, have the other regress and be stuck back where we were with no good catchers, but this is a position of relative depth for us right now and it seems like it could be a place where we could get a really good return potentially. What do you guys think?
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Peralta is seeming more and more like just a non tender candidate at the end of the year if he even makes it that long on the team. There's no way he makes it to the end of the year in the rotation given how he's been pitching lately. He was back to his old ways tonight. Overthrowing everything and falling way off the mound with every pitch.
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I think Stearns should still be in "listen to all offers" mode. In terms of guys we could actually GET offers for, I'd like Stearns to be looking to move Garza, Feliz, and Peralta. Anderson too if the price is right (wouldn't surprise me if we could get a nice return for him if he keeps pitching well). Realistically, we're going to want to open up spots in the rotation over the next 2 years for Woodruff, Hader, Ortiz, and Lopez to get extended tryouts at an absolute minimum. It would be nice for Espino, Burgos, and Wilkerson to get a look as well. I think we're hitting the point where we're all losing patience at the below average rotation that's made all the more frustrating because they have so much potential to be good (Nelson and Peralta in particular). If I were Stearns, my goal for 2nd half of 2017 would be to see if we potentially have the pieces to make a WC run next year. As far as hitting goes, I think we might already be there, but the rotation and bullpen could both use upgrades and we definitely have guys at AAA who could potentially help in both those areas. I have faith that Stearns has a plan for all this stuff. Nelson to the pen does seem like a great idea.
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What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)
Greenleaf1 replied to pete's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Just something else to think about. I know we've spent a lot of time in this thread debating if Braun is worth his contract in terms of $/WAR, but is that really the best way to judge his value? Let's say the Dodgers decided to spend the money they'd have to spend on Braun in order to get someone other than Braun to solve their problem. Is there a right handed outfielder available for Braun's salary that can give them what Braun can? It's not like players like that grow on trees, there's a relative scarcity when it comes to elite level players, and it gets even scarcer when you factor in that most teams don't want to let players like that go. Add in the factor that we could afford Braun through the length of his contract and don't need to get rid of him. That, in my opinion, is why the Dodgers should trade for Braun, giving up premium prospects and paying most of his salary (minus whatever players they want to salary dump on us as part of the deal). The Dodgers are all out every year, and Braun gives them an amazing chance to enhance their lineup in a big way, especially in the postseason. Sure, Bellinger is going to give them a huge boost in the outfield, but there's plenty of room in that outfield still for Braun, and having them both in their lineup in addition to the weapons they already possess would be huge for LA. Add in their pretty great pitching depth in the big leagues and the minors and they are in a great position to give us what we want (3 quality prospects headlined by Alvarez, probably). Hoping the Dodgers come to their senses come midseason. -
40-man roster discussion (part 2)
Greenleaf1 replied to djoctagone's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I think who we keep and who we cut is awfully dependent on other players as well, not just the performance of the player in question. Given the rest of our team's flexibility, keeping a guy like Aguilar makes sense because it's nice to have a big power bat on the bench, plus with Thames able to pay the outfield from time to time, Aguilar is probably a better bat to have in the lineup than whoever your 4th OF is. Franklin keeps his spot because his positional flexibility gives Counsell a lot of options with how to construct a lineup without worrying about late game injuries or double switches. He's competent enough in the field and figures to be ok enough at the plate that we don't lose much in his limited playing time. It would be nice to see what someone like De Jesus or Wren can do, but neither would figure to get much playing time in the majors right now and if we do need them in case of a big injury, we'd like them to be getting regular ABs in the meantime. If we needed someone for a longer period of time than just a couple games, Franklin wouldn't be the guy we use, but when all you need is a limited time guy you're not likely to want to waste a good prospect on that position because you're wasting them on the bench most of the time. Clearly the 25 best guys in our organization are not making up our roster right now, but that's how it goes when you're rebuilding. By the end of this year and into next year I guarantee that people are going to be a lot happier with the roster makeup than they are right now. -
Matt Garza - Significant Trade Asset??
Greenleaf1 replied to Jose Cardenal1's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
I have to say I was kinda disappointed in the lack of deals made by Stearns during the offseason, but is it possible that he is betting on midseason deals getting us bigger returns on some of these guys? If I thought that Garza had a good chance to put up a 4-ish ERA for the first half of 2017 and stay reasonably healthy, I'd keep him knowing you'll get a way better deal from a team desperate for pitching help midseason. -
It's certainly a lot more fun to watch the Minor League box scores so far this season than it was last season. To be sure, there are quite a few clunkers out there (Gilbert Lara and Jacob Nottingham UGH), but pitching throughout the organization has been pretty exceptional and there have been quite a few great success stories up to this point in the CS/Carolina lineups.
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It'd be great to get an Aaron Hill-esque return for Garza but I just don't even see that happening. I do think the cheap year of control beyond this year is a good perk to grabbing him though, and there have been a lot of pitchers going down early this year for extended periods. Garza's spot in the rotation represents a great tryout spot for some of our minor leaguers to prove themselves though, so more than any return we'd get I'd be excited to get to see some of these guys pitch in the big leagues. It's fun to follow minor league stat lines but it'd be more fun to actually see if these guys can help in Milwaukee. I'm champing at the bit for some of these big names to start coming up and helping us out. Weirdly the guys who have helped the most so far during this rebuild didn't spend much (if any) time in our Minor League system (Broxton, Santana, Villar, Guerra, Davies, Anderson, Shaw, Bandy, Pina). Arcia is pretty much the only "prospect" with any real time in our Minor League system to have been called up to play for the big team since this rebuild started.
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40-man roster discussion (part 2)
Greenleaf1 replied to djoctagone's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
They have a lot of flexibility with that 4 man bench so unless they think Braun will be out more than a few more days I doubt they'd DL him just to bring up another bench guy. They currently have 5 guys to choose from to fill the outfield every game, I don't think they'd need to call up another one. And if someone in the infield needs a game off they can always shift Perez to the infield or also Aguilar at 1B. Brewers are pretty well set up to keep going with a 4 man bench (or I suppose a 3 man bench while Braun's out). Stearns' emphasis on positional flexibility is really paying off so far this year. -
I didn't pay too much attention to this in previous seasons, and last year so many of our top guys were underperforming that there wasn't much reason to care, but when do we think that some of our guys are going to get the bump up to the next level? Just taking a quick look at the rosters, it seems like there are some guys who are no brainers to bump up to the next level as soon as June-ish: To A+: - Trey Supak - Monte Harrison To AA: - Jake Gatewood - Corbin Burnes - Isan Diaz To AAA: - Bubba Derby - Nick Ramirez Obviously all these guys have the caveat that they would need to continue their great performances into June, but could we expect promotions for some or all of these guys by the early to mid June time frame? Has Stearns been here enough to give us an idea of how he does this? When were Freddy Peralta and Marcos Diplan promoted last year? Also worth noting I guess that Isan Diaz wasn't promoted at all last year.
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My guess is around June 1st we're gonna start to see some scrambling and shuffling of rosters all throughout the organization. If Nelson continues to struggle, I think his chances are going to be pretty used up. He'll get the Jungmann/Peralta treatment and get a chance to work on some stuff in AA or AAA. That leaves Guerra, Davies, Garza, Anderson, and Peralta. I really don't disagree that sending Peralta to the bullpen seems like a solid idea to regain some value on him if he can't stick in the rotation, but I'm not willing to give up on his rotation chances yet. But that could change by June 1st. Either way, I don't see him getting sent back down again (not even sure if he has options remaining?). Garza's days in Milwaukee are likely numbered, but it sure would be nice if we could move him for just a little something rather than just having to cut him, especially since he's pitching well enough so far that cutting him would look pretty stupid. By the ASB I'd like to see a rotation of Guerra/Davies/Anderson/Lopez given a shot with a revolving 5th door on some of the guys who deserve a chance (Burgos, Espino, Wilkerson). That said, if Woodruff keeps going like he's going, I'm not sure they can stop him from stealing that spot outright.
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Any word on Josh Pennington? Doesn't look like he's pitched yet this year, did he stay behind in Arizona for some reason? Honestly the PTBNL in this deal is gravy. If we looked at the trade given the results of this season so far, just getting Shaw for Thornburg would look like highway robbery, so I'm not terribly concerned with how good or bad the last guy on this deal is going to be. My guess is that it will be someone of Pennington quality or lower though, especially since I feel like there's a good chance Thornburg's health plays into the player we're getting back. Wouldn't expect much, certainly not a top 25 prospect.
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Questions on a couple of AAA guys
Greenleaf1 replied to Madhawk23's topic in Brewers Minor League Talk
The Brewers liked Wilkerson enough to pull the trigger on a trade 2 weeks before the deadline to get him. His FIP is currently 1.3. He had a nice spring. I still think he is higher than Espino and Burgos if the need arises. Maybe his demotion to AA was a sign the Brewers have soured, but I suspect it was more protecting his confidence and building some momentum. Completely forgot about Wilkerson, but I like him and would like to see him get a big league shot somewhere, probably would put him in there with Espino/Burgos. I'd really like to see some churn to the rotation if guys aren't performing, it'd be nice to see what we have with some of these borderline guys in the minors. -
Questions on a couple of AAA guys
Greenleaf1 replied to Madhawk23's topic in Brewers Minor League Talk
Cooper is an interesting guy to me but now that we all of a sudden out of nowhere have a great, cheap 1B signed for the next 4 years, I'm not sure that Cooper is going to get a shot in Milwaukee. I'm assuming at some point here that they will have to DFA Aguilar too and if somehow he clears waivers then that makes things tougher for Cooper too (although that would surprise me if he cleared waivers). That said, I've definitely been keeping an eye on Cooper the last few years because, like you said, he has held his own at every level and he might just be one of those guys who manages to break through despite the non-prospect status. Could take an injury to Thames for him to get a shot though. Espino is interesting to me too, as is Hiram Burgos at AAA. Always liked Burgos especially and wanted to see what he could do with a longer tryout. I'd guess that if we're calling up any starters this year, the order is going to be something like: 1. Jorge Lopez 2. Paulo Espino 3. Hiram Burgos 4. Brandon Woodruff 5. Josh Hader Woodruff/Hader seem lower on the list for service time reasons, early season struggles for Hader or just not enough AAA service time for Woodruff. Plus if you don't call up Espino/Burgos now, they'll likely get lost next year in the rebuild. Might as well see what you got and let the young guys get some more time at AAA. Jorge Lopez seems ready to go though, and I wouldn't risk waiting much longer on him. But back the point of your original post, I think it's going to take a unique opportunity for us to see Cooper/Espino this year (probably an injury, or maybe September callups?), but I'd like to see what they could do if given the chance. -
Lots of fun so far this year to watch the minor league teams. They've hit their bad streaks (sucks to see Erceg struggling) but for every player underperforming right now it seems like there are 2 others who are doing great. That AAA outfield in particular has been a real source of joy watching the box scores every day.
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@Brewers 1m1 minute ago RHP Matt Garza will come off the 10-day disabled list and make his season debut on Monday against the Reds. LHP Tommy Milone to the bullpen. Looks like Suter's stay in Milwaukee will be brief.
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As a much newer member of this community, I would also like to thank everyone who contributes to this forum. It's been super nice to have a group of knowledgeable and opinionated Brewers fans to chat with about everything Brewers-related. Special thanks for those who are doing the extra work to bring us all the resources and information that gets posted on this forum on a regular basis.

