Spencer Michaelis

Good call! I was thinking he had a really rough start. Should've looked at the game logs and gone further into a date range.

Welcome to Fanatic! Here's a chart showing his rolling swing rate. It was actually higher earlier in the year.

Image courtesy of © Dave Kallmann / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images (Jeferson Quero) We're back for another week of farm system observations. Last week, we covered two pitchers (one more established and one under-the-radar arm), as well as a position player. This week, there will be two pretty well-known position-player prospects and a starting pitcher from the 2024 draft under the microscope. Let's begin this edition with a player who evokes a wide opinion gap on his long-term abilities. All statistics are season-long unless otherwise noted Luke Adams - 1B/3B - Biloxi Shuckers: 247 PA, 179 wRC+, 21.1 K%, 16.6 BB%, 11 HR The Brewers' 12th-round pick in the 2022 draft, Adams stands 6-foot-4 and weighs 210 pounds. He has a rare blend of patience at the plate, plus raw power and surprising baserunning ability. Adams has spent most of the season at first base, with Brock Wilken manning third, but he has shown the ability to play over there, too. Adams only turned 21 in April and was the fifth-youngest player in the Southern League on Opening Day. It wasn’t a huge surprise, therefore, when the bat got off to a bit of a slow start; he posted a line of .173/.326/.387 in April. This was good for a 118 wRC+ in the oppressive Southern League hitting environment, but it was not the type of line you'd hope to see from a genuine prospect. On top of his age, Adams was taking some offseason swing changes into games for the first time. These changes continued something he had been working on the last couple of years: simplifying his operation. You can see the changes Adams made from 2023 to 2024 in the first tweet below, and then the second shows how he simplified it even further heading into 2025. From 2023 to 2024, the hand movement in his load lessened significantly. In 2025, the hands haven’t changed much pre-swing, but the angle of his barrel is more in line with the angle at which he wants to swing the bat—going from a flat angle in the 2024 video to more of a 20-degree angle in 2025. This change has minimized that movement even further. The other significant change Adams seems to have made heading into 2025 is that he does a much better job of staying “stacked” throughout his swing. He keeps the upper body (shoulders and torso) aligned over the lower body (hips and legs) during his load and swing. You can see, in the 2023 and 2024 videos, that he has a bit of a hunch in his torso. In the video below, showing the grand slam Adams hit this past weekend, you can see how well-aligned his lower and upper halves are. I mentioned his April slash earlier. It was a fine month of production, but not in the shape you want to see from a legitimate prospect. Since April ended, he has posted a .294/.490/.569 line, good for a 215 wRC+. Including the final two games of April, Adams has reached base in 36 straight, setting the Shuckers franchise record on the grand slam above. Adams has always been considered patient, but really, it’s a passive approach. His swing rate of 30.7% in 2024 was among the lowest in professional baseball. He has upped his swing rate to 32.8% in 2025, but this would still make him an outlier at the major-league level. Juan Soto has the lowest rate among qualified hitters in MLB, at 34.4%. This is the concern with Adams, when it comes to prospect evaluators. Yes, this approach works fine in the lower levels of the minor leagues, but when pitchers throw strikes more consistently, will it still work? That’s the question, and it’s a good one. The good news is that the approach has worked at every level, actually improving his production, going from a 130 wRC+ in Low-A to 153 in High-A and now 179 in Double-A. He has also already matched his career high in home runs, at 11, in only 60% of the plate appearances. At some point, it gets hard to push the production aside. You start to hope (and assume) that he'll make the adjustments and swing a bit more often, because he's shown that he knows what he's doing. Jaron DeBerry - RHP - Wisconsin Timber Rattlers: 26 IP, 3.46 ERA, 3.25 FIP, 27.5% K%, 7.3 BB%, 25.2 Whiff% The Brewers drafted DeBerry in the third round of the 2024 draft. A personal favorite fit of mine in the draft, DeBerry has a kitchen-sink repertoire, but I think there’s more of a ceiling to dream on than most pitchers in that category have—especially those drafted as senior sign pitchers and those who receive only $25,000 in bonus money, when the slot value is $788,700. I have watched DeBerry’s last few starts in High-A, where he was promoted after he showed he was a bit too talented for Low-A hitters in 8 2/3 innings at the level. His most recent start was his best with Wisconsin. He showed off his entire repertoire throughout, on his way to a line of 5 2/3 innings with seven strikeouts, four hits, and two walks, resulting in two earned runs. DeBerry mixes in all three fastball variations, sitting in the low-90s on his two- and four-seam heaters. The cutter, which he has used quite a bit in High-A, sits in the 86-88 MPH range. DeBerry also throws two breaking ball variations, a sweeper and a curveball, which each sit in the 79-81 MPH range. A late addition to his college repertoire was a changeup in the 83-85 range, which he has not used much in pro ball. He did record a strikeout with it on Thursday (the fourth strikeout in the video above) and when he’s used it, it has looked like a solid-average pitch. Going back to the ceiling that DeBerry possesses, he enters pro ball with an extremely slender frame, standing 6-foot-3 and weighing (a seemingly generous) 178 pounds. There is some hope for added velocity, simply from adding some mass to his frame as he moves up the ladder. The four-seam and two-seam shapes are a bit generic at this point, though the two-seam has improved from the one he threw in college, so added velocity would go a long way. On top of the potential for a bit of a velocity jump, DeBerry’s ceiling is interesting because of his ability to spin the ball. Both the sweeper and curveball have had spin rates of over 3,000 RPMs and have sat in the 2,900 range. To me, these are both above-average pitches or better. I question whether his heavy fastball approach with the Timber Rattlers is the best way to deploy him. That said, pitch usage in the minor leagues isn’t always aimed at getting the best results. Rather, it's tailored to help development the most. If he can increase his velocity by a couple of ticks, there are a lot of Coleman Crow similarities in DeBerry's game. His numbers in High-A haven’t been nearly as strong as they were in the small sample of Low-A outings, but I believe there’s still quite a bit to be excited about with DeBerry. Minimally, he should be looked at as more than a money-saving pick. This is a prospect worth following. Jeferson Quero - C - Nashville Sounds: 36 PA, 79 wRC+, 13.9 K%, 8.3 BB% (Triple-A only) Quero is a different story than the other two in the article. Having missed all of 2024 (outside of one plate appearance), the top prospect has made his long-awaited return to Triple-A over the last couple of weeks. I have been wanting to see, more than anything else, Quero’s ability to throw the ball coming off his torn labrum. Formerly throwing the ball as well as any catcher in baseball, he was posting pop times around 1.80 seconds in 2023, as a 20-year-old in Double-A. It would have been one of the strongest arms in MLB at that time. Since returning from injury, his stats say that he has thrown out two of five attempted base stealers. However, one steal came on a pitch he didn't make a throw on, and the two “caught stealings” are both pickoffs where he never touched the ball. Baserunners are 2-for-2 on their actual stolen base attempts. Both of those attempts saw pop times in the 2.00 to 2.05 range, but both were on breaking balls in the dirt that caused a long transfer, neither of which was very clean. All that context to say, we haven’t learned anything in that regard so far, at least visually. We did get some information in the form of Sounds announcer Jeff Hem’s interview with manager Rick Sweet (around the 2:10 mark of the interview below), where Sweet mentions that Quero has 12 bolts in his shoulder and it will still be a while before he’s back to 100%. He also says that Quero used to have an “80 arm” but will most likely have an average to above-average arm moving forward. It’s unfortunate news. At one point, there was a path to Quero being a bit of a defensive game-breaker, where he could control the running game at an elite level, as well as bring his exceptional game-calling and solid receiving skills to the table. The lack of that elite arm makes it more likely that he ends up being an above-average defender, rather than a great one. Quero’s bat hasn’t been great in his first week’s worth of plate appearances in Nashville. Still, he showed plenty of ability when he was on his rehab assignment in Arizona, hitting five home runs in 44 plate appearances at the level. The exit velocity numbers have been weak so far for Quero, topping out at 101 MPH. The shoulder may also be causing an inability to finish his swing the same way he did when he was last healthy. Formerly a two-hand finisher, Quero has very noticeably been finishing with one hand this year. Compare the video below to the video above, and it sticks out like a sore thumb. Not that there aren’t plenty of hitters who finish with one hand, but Quero’s hand seems to be coming off pretty early at times, which leads to a one-handed swing rather than just a finish. These are concerning signs for a guy whose offensive game was primarily built around his ability to drive the ball, as he’s never been overly strong in the swing-decision department. His bat-to-ball skills still appear to be pretty solid, but he will need the power to return to offensive relevancy. All of this said, it’s been a tiny sample, and things could change quickly in a positive direction—especially if, as Sweet mentioned in the interview, he is still not back to 100%. The early returns on his return to the field haven’t been great for Quero, but we will need to check back in on him in a month or two. That’s all I’ve got for this week; let us know what you think in the replies! View full article

I looked through the last couple pages, but apologies if I'm missing this having been posted already. Looks like the Brewers also signed 18-year-old 6'1" Dominican Republic native RHP Derlin Garcia and assigned him to DSL Brewers Gold as well. Garcia's Instagram Regalado's Instagram is here, for good measure.

I think people have fallen into a trap with looking at individual BABIP over the years. Yes, a high BABIP often means you're due for regression, but when you hit your batted balls at an ideal launch angle more than anyone else in all of AAA, as well as having a well above-average hard hit rate and average EV, .372 actually isn't a crazy high number. Is he overperforming? Probably a bit. But not by a ton, imo.

Image courtesy of © Wm. Glasheen/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images We are back for week three of Brewers farm system observations. Last week, we covered two pitchers—one more established and one under-the-radar arm—as well as a position player. This week will be more of the same, starting with one of the Brewers' top picks in last year’s amateur draft. All statistics are season-long unless otherwise noted Blake Burke - 1B - Wisconsin Timber Rattlers: 144 wRC+, 21.4 K%, 12.6 BB%, 3 HR The Brewers' second selection in the 2024 draft, they used the pick they had acquired in the Corbin Burnes trade to take Burke out of Tennessee. At the time, Burke was best known for having huge raw power, but it's been his hit tool that has stood out while watching him this season. Before the season, if you had told me that Burke would only have three home runs to this point, I would have assumed he was either injured or struggling. Neither of those things are true, though. Burke has played in 56 of 57 games for the Timber Rattlers, and he’s posting a 144 wRC+. So what’s causing the power outage, and is it cause for concern? To answer the latter, from my personal perspective, it is not something I am concerned about at all. The power is going to be there for Burke. He has hit balls as hard as 117 MPH, and he hit a home run in spring training at 110.6 MPH. The power is in there. One of the bigger questions for Burke coming out of Tennessee was whether his solid bat-to-ball skills in college would transfer to pro ball, and the answer so far is a resounding yes. Burke’s ability to cover all quadrants of the zone has been impressive to watch. His whiff rate of 26.4% and strikeout rate of only 21.4% are both better than average for the level. He draws walks, and hits low line drives to all fields with regularity, though it should be noted that his ground ball rate of 52% is higher than you’d want from a player of his build. It’s not been the profile that was expected from him, but it’s been extremely productive—44% better than league average to be exact. Even though a groundball-heavy approach is unlikely to work well for him, Burke actually moves reasonably well for his size. His baserunning IQ is high, and he recognizes that pitchers will lose track of him occasionally. He is 7-for-10 in stolen base attempts this year, and has also legged out two triples. Having watched a handful of games while he was at Tennessee, I knew Burke’s glovework would translate well. He has good hands and was able to show that off in the games I had seen. The nimbleness around the bag wasn’t as evident in the small sample as in a larger sample of High-A viewing. He’s not going to be a Matt Olson-level defender at first base. Still, he seems to have more mobility and better reaction times than similarly built former Brewers first baseman Rowdy Tellez, for example. Touted as a power-only bat who may not be able to handle first base defensively, Burke appears to be quite a bit different than that. While the power will eventually need to show up, it seems likely that it will, and in the meantime, Burke has shown that his perceived weaknesses may not be as concerning as many thought 11 months ago. K.C. Hunt - RHP - Biloxi Shuckers: 4.30 ERA, 4.16 FIP, 24.9 K%, 9.3 BB%, 33.3 Whiff% From going undrafted in the 2023 draft to being named Co-Minor League Pitcher of the Year for the Brewers in 2024, Hunt actually got off to a pretty slow start in 2025. Through his first seven starts of the season, covering 30 2/3 innings, Hunt posted a 5.28 ERA with 27 strikeouts and 15 walks. After putting up a 5.6 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 2024, seeing it at 1.8 was unsettling. In Hunt’s most recent three starts, though, he has gone 15 1/3 innings, with 21 strikeouts to only three walks. That stat line is much more in line with what we became accustomed to seeing from him last year. For the most part, Hunt is still getting the job done on the back of his array of breaking balls. His mid-80s cutter and slider both play well, and his curveball in the upper 70s shows flashes of being an above-average or better pitch, as well. Hunt’s high-spin fastball velocity is down a tick or two in 2025, sitting more in the 90-92 range rather than 92-94. However, outside of being in the zone more consistently, the most significant positive change of late has been Hunt’s improved changeup. Formerly a distant fifth pitch for Hunt, the changeup has been a real weapon against lefties, sitting in the mid-80s and showing more depth than in the past. The changeup generated five of the 24 called strikes and whiffs in the video below. One of the main questions for Hunt has been whether he’s capable of sticking as a starter. Many of those questions were related to whether his fastball would play well enough. While the improved changeup helps Hunt’s profile as a starter, the drop in velocity on his fastball does the opposite. If Hunt can get his velocity back to where it was in 2024, he still has a good chance to slot into a back-of-the-rotation spot down the line, where he can use the fastball around a third of the time. If not, he may end up being a reliever, where lower fastball usage is more sustainable. Either way, it’s good to see him getting back on track, especially with the help of that improved fifth pitch. Bjorn Johnson - LHP - Carolina Mudcats: 3.34 ERA, 2.23 FIP, 33.1 K%, 10.2 BB%, 34.0 Whiff% This should shock absolutely nobody, but Bjorn Johnson is yet another 2023 draft pick performing well in the early portion of his career. The 12th-round selection was drafted out of high school and signed away from an Auburn commitment. Unlike many of his 2023 draftmates, 2024 was not a story of immediate success for Johnson. In fact, it was the exact opposite, as Johnson posted an 8.38 ERA over 19 1/3 innings in the Arizona Complex League. He walked 18 while striking out 16. It was a nightmare of a debut season in the small sample of games Johnson pitched in. Given the numbers he put up, it felt noteworthy when the Brewers assigned him to full-season ball and put him on Carolina’s Opening Day roster. He has shown exactly why the organization gave him that promotion and vote of confidence over the first two-plus months of the season. He continued his string of strong performances this past week, pitching in two outings, combining for 6 1/3 innings, striking out five, walking zero, and allowing only one earned run. While his ACL games were not televised, based on the numbers, he certainly seems to have made huge strides in his command since last season. As you may have noticed in the video above, Johnson throws a hammer of a curveball in the 79-81 MPH range. Coming out of high school, his changeup was seen as his best secondary, but the curveball has overtaken it since he arrived in pro ball. It is his primary pitch, as he uses it comfortably in any count or situation. His changeup is also still a strong offering, though he mainly uses it against right-handed batters, while the curve is less platoon-dependent. Johnson throws his fastball in the low 90s, though it seems to play up a bit beyond that, likely due to his approach of pitching backward, using the fastball as his change-of-pace pitch. To add to the equation, he occasionally mixes in a cutter and seems to use it more lately. He has gone four innings multiple times this season; it’s possible that starting games could be in his future, whether this season or another. Regardless of his future role, Johnson has been impressive this year at just twenty years old. That’s all I’ve got for this week; let us know what you think in the replies! View full article

Yeah… like you said, It’s definitely not going to match up to 2024 but Antunez has very real buzz as a legit dude down there from people who watched him in the exhibitions and workouts and everything else, despite a slow start in his first week. Also think it’s always a good reminder that Chourio was 0 for his first 19 in the DSL. Sometimes you get Pena and Made who explode immediately, sometimes it’s more like Chourio and takes some time to really get going. Fenelon is off to a solid start. Chavez is doing well. Mayorquin had a good first start. Leonard Rijo has had a good first week (and despite his size did get $225k to sign, so a pretty decent bonus guy), Barrios has done a solid job. I think it could still be a strong class, just not quite the ceiling of, like you said, what might end up being one of the greatest international classes ever signed.

The Brewers are hot. Jack and Spencer discuss what to make of Milwaukee winning 13 of its last 17 games, including hot stretches for a couple of key hitters. Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-brewer-fanatic-podcast/id1740648724 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5CY8mWsQayqjDXqw9OT2Td iHeartRadio: https://www.iheart.com/podcast/263-the-brewer-fanatic-podcast-166534588/ Pocket Casts: https://pca.st/ommzz627 Watch On YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@brewerfanatic View full article

Along these lines it looks like there was one other move involving a pitcher moving to High-A LHP Sam Garcia assigned to Wisconsin Timber Rattlers from Carolina Mudcats

I can try to remember to include age! Each player should have a link to their baseball-reference page as well, which will have their age included. As for those that would be dropped or demoted to make room for promotions, it’s one of those things I don’t like to speculate about publicly, but every level has some players that are mostly falling into the “roster filler” category at this point. Stiven Cruz being demoted for Zach Peek’s promotion to Biloxi is a good example of that.

Image courtesy of Parker Freedman, Biloxi Shuckers May was a strong month for a couple of prospects who have lost some of their shine the last couple years, and some more well-known names, as well. We will take a look at a few honorable mentions for the month, as well as our top five hitters for May. Honorable Mentions: 1B/3B Frederi Montero - ACL Brewers - 70 PA, 24 H, .400/.486/.500 (.986 OPS), 171 wRC+, 6 doubles, 11 R, 12 RBI, 9 BB, 12 K, 3 SB, 1 CS - Unranked by all publications UTIL Juan Ortuno - ACL Brewers - 82 PA, 15 H, .259/.463/.448 (.912 OPS), 154 wRC+, 2 doubles, 3 HR, 16 R, 15 RBI, 17 BB, 13 K, 3 SB, 1 CS - Unranked by all publications SS/3B Luis Peña - Carolina Mudcats - 65 PA, 19 H, .359/.388/.544 (.931 OPS), 166 wRC+, 1 double, 2 triples, 3 HR, 16 R, 15 RBI, 6 BB, 9 K, 10 SB, 2 CS Montero had a forgettable season in the DSL last year, but the Brewers still moved him up a level, and Montero rewarded them with a great first month. He has the build to hit for power, but a swing tuned for line drives and grounders. Ortuno is only 5-foot-8, but he packs some punch, hitting three home runs and posting exit velocities of up to 109 MPH. Peña deserved to make the list based on his performance, but he missed enough time to be short of the requirements of a qualified hitter this month. Plus, you can read more about Peña’s strong performance recently here. TOP FIVE POSITION PLAYERS OF MAY #5 1B/3B Gery Holguin - ACL Brewers - 55 PA, 17 H, .347/.418/.694 (1.112 OPS), 181 wRC+, 3 doubles, 4 HR, 15 R, 14 RBI, 6 BB, 14 K, 1 CS - Unranked by all publications Holguin was signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2022. He spent two seasons in the DSL and made real strides in his sequel season. He is undergoing a similar process in the Complex League, as he struggled in his debut season of 2024. His second run at the league has gone much better so far in 2025. In fact, May went so well for him that he was promoted to Low-A Carolina between the end of May and the time this article was released. At the time of signing, Holguin was reportedly a strong defender at shortstop, but after growing a couple of inches, he has settled in at the infield corners. Holguin has an aggressive swing, with his back foot often kicking backward as he makes contact. His strikeout rate of 25.2% in May paints a much prettier picture than the 32.2% rate in 2024, but it's still higher than you’d hope to see in rookie ball. With that aggressive swing, however, his one-time “projectable” power has started to show up in games, as evidenced by his four homers in only 15 games played. Holguin repeated a level for the second time in four years, but each time, he has shown real growth in that second year. His timeline will need to accelerate moving forward. He can’t afford to spend eight years between the remaining four levels, but continued growth is always a good sign for any player. Perhaps he has figured something significant out this year and will carry it over into his Carolina League debut. #4 SS Eduardo Garcia - Wisconsin Timber Rattlers - 31 H, .290/.350/.523 (.874 OPS), 137 wRC+, 7 doubles, 6 HR, 23 R, 16 RBI, 9 BB, 36 K, 13 SB, 1 CS Garcia was signed in 2018 out of Venezuela, but is still only 22 years old for another month. He's had an up-and-down career, including moving quickly at one point and being demoted at another. At this point, he has regained some of his prospect appeal with a very strong start to 2025 in High-A and a tremendous May. He's spent the season splitting time between shortstop and center field, a position he first started playing in 2024. Garcia has always had issues with strikeouts, and that has not changed in 2025. He has tapped into the power he has always possessed more consistently, as evidenced by his six home runs in May. He has also nearly tripled his walk rate from 3% to 8.7% in 2025. Garcia will never be a high batting average batter, but he could provide slugging—and did just that in May. Garcia’s plus defense at shortstop, as well as his added positional flexibility to play in the outfield, could make it easier for him to eventually be promoted to Double-A despite the abundance of infielders already there. #3 1B Luke Adams - Biloxi Shuckers - 101 PA, 19 H, .271/.485/.457 (.942 OPS), 189 wRC+, 7 doubles, 2 HR, 20 R, 8 RBI, 20 BB, 22 K The Brewers' 12th-round pick in the 2022 draft, Adams stands 6-foot-4 and weighs 210 pounds. He has a rare blend of patience at the plate, plus raw power and surprising baserunning ability for his size. Adams has spent most of the season at first base, with Brock Wilken manning third, but he has shown the ability to play over there. The bat got off to a slow start in April (unsurprisingly, as such a young player at the level), while he was taking some offseason swing changes into games for the first time. Adams continues to swing the bat at an extremely low rate, only swinging 31.4% of the time in May. However, he rarely chased, and limited his whiffs to a solid 25.4% for the month. His quality of contact was also extremely high, hitting the ball well over 100 MPH on numerous occasions. He hit two home runs and seven doubles. The combination of drawing walks, making contact, and quality contact at that, gives Adams such an interesting profile at the plate. It would be beneficial to see Adams get more time at third base, and future promotions from other players in Biloxi (including the number one player on this list) could help grant him those opportunities. Given his age, he should be expected to spend all of 2025 in Double-A, but performances like the one he put up in May will only continue to push him up prospect lists. #2 UTIL Anthony Seigler - Nashville Sounds - 87 PA, 27 H, .386/.506/.671 (1.177 OPS), 214 wRC+, 5 doubles, 3 triples, 3 HR, 16 R, 12 RBI, 17 BB, 16 K, 9 SB, 0 CS - Unranked by all publications Seigler was signed as a minor-league free agent this offseason. Drafted in the first round by the Yankees in 2018 as a catcher, he's a switch-hitter who also throws with both arms. He moved to second base for the Yankees in 2024 and had a bit of an offensive breakout. The Brewers have used him at both catcher and second base this season, and even mixed in some time at third base. His offense is what lands him on this list, however. The switch-hitter should probably be looked at as more of a left-handed hitter; he's really struggled from the right side. That didn’t hold him back in May, as he posted the highest OPS among qualified hitters in the organization. Seigler doesn’t possess considerable raw power, but makes consistently hard contact. His max exit velocity of 107.2 MPH and 90th-percentile exit velocity of 101.8 MPH are below average. However, his average exit velocity of 91.5 MPH and hard-hit rate of 52.4% are well above average. Not only that, but Seigler hits the ball at ideal launch angles as his “launch-angle sweet spot” rate is in the 100th percentile for Triple-A, with 48.6% of his batted balls falling into that sweet spot. This ability to hit the ball at ideal angles and with consistently hard contact helped Seigler hit three homers and add eight more extra-base hits in May. Even though he plays catcher, Seigler is quite the athlete and possesses above-average speed. That speed helped him leg out three triples and swipe nine bases without fail. Seigler getting opportunities at third base is not coincidental. The Brewers have a clear need at that position, and Seigler’s performance in Triple-A has been spectacular offensively, as well as at the two defensive positions he has spent most of his time playing (second base and catcher). If he proves he can handle third defensively, he seems to be next in line for a chance to take some of the third base reps at the big league level. #1 3B Brock Wilken - Biloxi Shuckers - 114 PA, 22 H, .237/.368/.570 (.938 OPS), 174 wRC+, 4 Doubles, 9 HR, 17 R, 20 RBI, 20 BB, 30 K The Brewers' first-round selection in the 2023 Draft, Wilken had an incredibly successful career at Wake Forest, including becoming the career home run leader for the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) with 71; Wilken set that record throughout only three seasons as a Demon Deacon. He did so well in his brief introduction to pro ball in 2023 that he was aggressively assigned to Double-A to begin 2024, appearing to be on a potential fast track to MLB. Unfortunately, Wilken dealt with a 94 MPH pitch to the face in April of last year, which caused facial fractures and issues with his vision, and he struggled to produce for most of the season. There were a lot of questions regarding Wilken’s ability to stay at third base defensively. He has looked the part over there this year, and with his arm strength being plus, he seems like he will do just fine manning the hot corner moving forward. In his return to Double-A, Wilken got off to a solid start in April before exploding offensively at the beginning of May. A big part of his success in April was due to drawing walks at an absurd rate of 26%. That was never sustainable. He did a great job of upping his aggressiveness effectively, upping his swing rate by around 5%. With a more aggressive approach leading the way, Wilken hit seven of his nine home runs on the month in the first 12 games played. Power was Wilken's most highly graded tool out of college, but he had yet to have a run like this in Biloxi. His exit velocities are above average, but not as high as most would think. He makes up for what he lacks in high-end exit velocities with his ability to pull the ball in the air. Only one of his nine home runs this month were hit to the opposite field. Wilken did slow down quite a bit at the end of the month, notably after a 100-MPH fastball narrowly missed his face again, but he still appears to be at a point where challenging him with a Triple-A promotion in the near future would be a worthwhile venture. Perhaps soon. Thanks for reading! What do you think of the rankings? Did we miss anyone? View full article

Doh... wrote the article before his numbers had updated, and then forgot to update them before submitting 🤦‍♂️Numbers are fixed now, thanks!

Kept forgetting to mention it, but he was posting video of him catching all winter on his IG, so it appears to be a real change.

Well that didn't take long

Image courtesy of © Tom Tingle/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images We're back, for week two of farm system observations. As we did last week, we'll cover two relatively well-known names and a lesser-known, intriguing-looking arm in the lower levels of the system. All statistics are season-long unless otherwise noted Coleman Crow - RHP - Biloxi Shuckers: 2.90 ERA, 2.00 FIP, 29.6 K%, 5.6 BB%, 30.1 Whiff% Crow was a 28th-round selection by the Angels in 2019, but due to COVID, he didn’t make his professional debut until 2021. He worked his way through the system the next two years and ended up starting 2023 in Double A. He made four starts before going on the injured list with an elbow issue that would eventually necessitate Tommy John surgery. He underwent his procedure in August 2023 and would subsequently miss the 2024 season, his first in the Brewers organization. Knowing that, the Brewers still decided he was worth two respectable big-league players, Adrian Houser and Tyrone Taylor. He appears to be proving them right. Watching his entire start on Sunday, Crow showed off his five-pitch repertoire on his way to striking out nine Trash Pandas in five scoreless innings. His four-seam fastball was sitting in the 91-93 range, with a shape that appears to play well at the top of the zone. He was mixing in his cutter as a change-of-pace fastball in the upper 80s, and it was able to generate some swing-and-miss on pitches away. Mainly, though, it drew a lot of foul balls and soft contact. The best pitch (and the put-away pitch) for Crow is his curveball. Thrown in the mid-70s, he has spun some of his curveballs up to nearly 3,600 RPMs. Shuckers broadcaster Javik Blake tweeted out some data on one of Crow’s curveballs in April: 77 MPH, -15.5 IVB, -19.3 HB, 3,240 RPMs. Even when you account for the different baseball used in Double-A, that pitch is expected to move similarly to Seth Lugo’s curveball—one of the best curves in MLB. Crow’s curveball accounted for five of his nine strikeouts on Sunday. Crow also throws a high-spin, low-80s sweeper that he can use for whiffs against righties, though he has struggled to command it when I have been watching. It has a lot of sheer horizontal movement, likely contributing to the difficulty with throwing it where he wants to. He rounds out his repertoire with a rarely used mid-80s changeup, and he has shown a good feel for killing the spin on it, though its shape and his command of it are lagging pretty far behind. As odd as the comparison may seem on the surface, Crow has some similarities to Logan Henderson. Sure, Henderson’s main non-fastball is a changeup. The changeup is Crow’s worst pitch right now. Henderson struggles to spin breaking balls, and Crow is elite in that regard. However, when you look at their builds and mentality on the mound, the similarities begin to crop up. They are always the attackers on the mound. They want to go after batters, and because of this, they both limit walks. Both have the “bulldog mentality,” where they appear to be all business until they record a big out and suddenly, they start showing some positive emotion. They never look flustered on the mound and have a presence about them that is bigger than their stature. Despite only being 24 years old, Crow has been in professional baseball long enough that he is not only Rule 5-eligible this offseason, but also a minor-league free agent at year’s end. The Brewers may have to add him to the 40-man roster to keep him in the system. In order to make that decision, the organization will likely want to see how his stuff plays at the Triple-A level. Crow’s performance is making a promotion in the near future almost unavoidable, though the depth in Nashville also makes it difficult to see where he would fit. His recent performance may force their hand, regardless of the other influences. Luis Peña - SS/3B - Carolina Mudcats: 169 wRC+, 10.7 K%, 9.9 BB%, 5 HR Well, I said I would try to avoid focusing too much on the likes of Peña or Made in the article last week. I made it one week. To be fair, Peña returned from his short stay on the concussion IL on Wednesday and proceeded to have three multi-hit games and smash two home runs in that time, bringing his season-long total to five. Even while trying not to focus on him, he continued to catch my eye on both sides of the ball. Defensively, Peña has sometimes struggled with errors this year, which is not unusual for younger players. At the same time, he has shown solid actions on the infield and an above-average arm to boot, though his throwing accuracy is a work in progress. He looks especially comfortable when coming in on the ball or ranging to his glove-hand side. When ranging to his backhand, it seems he gets caught between steps at times, which has caused some of his struggles. Peña likes to slide when going to his backhand, which helps him set his feet, but it generally slows down the operation. He made some nice plays on Sunday, including one of those sliding plays to his right. Peña continues to impress across the board on the offensive side of the ball, and the home run power is starting to show up far more often. Not only has he improved his 90th percentile exit velocity from 99.9 MPH to 106.5 MPH, according to Baseball America, but he has also begun to lift the ball to his pull side more often. With that, including the two games before he ended up on the IL with his concussion, Peña has now homered in four of his last seven games. With his swing starting to generate more power, Peña has also continued to avoid strikeouts well. Jesús Made had his national breakout while in the Dominican Summer League. Peña is having that breakout now, and he appears to be on the fast track to finding himself in a similar position to Made's on national prospect rankings. The Brewers seem to have found two players with true superstar ceilings in the same international signing class. Carlos Carra - RHP - ACL Brewers: 5.40 ERA, 5.99 FIP, 25.0 K%, 7.8 BB% A 2024 signing by the Brewers out of México, Carra had a very successful first professional season in the Dominican Summer League. He finished the season with a 1.66 ERA, and struck batters out at a 27.8% rate. He would, however, need to improve his walk rate of 16.3% as he moved up. Given that ACL games are not often streamed on video, Carra caught my eye in a format other than video this week when his outing against the ACL Rangers was played on a Statcast field. Some footage from his DSL stint had piqued my interest in the past, though. The pitch tagging through Statcast was not great in this game, but Carra appears to be throwing a four-seam fastball, a changeup and a curveball. His four-seamer was generating induced vertical break numbers that reached up to 21 inches, and averaged 17.5 inches (combining the pitches tagged as four-seam and sinkers). When you include the horizontal break that averaged 12.8 inches between the two, the fastball's movement profile is actually similar to Logan Henderson’s in MLB (17.2 IVB/11.0 HB). Henderson throws the pitch from a lower release height, though, and thus has a Vertical Approach Angle of -3.9 degrees. That's an elite number, whereas Carra’s VAA trends closer to average at -4.6 degrees. While the induced movement on Carra’s changeup appears rather average on the surface, he kills spin on the pitch well and also takes around 10 MPH off of it, relative to his fastball. The shape, spin, and velocity compare favorably to Michael Wacha’s changeup, which has been a great pitch for him. His curveball stood out in the video I had seen from his DSL days, and the shape and feel for spin are both very interesting for someone his age. I like that it also gives him another velocity band to play with, sitting in the mid-70s. It's a pitch that can tunnel well with his high-carry fastball, and also slow down bats when he wants to go back to the fastball. One thing the Brewers are likely interested in adding is a shorter slider or a cutter in the mid-80s—something that can give him even one more velocity band to work with and to bridge the gap between his fastball and curveball shapes. Carra’s ERA and FIP may be high at the moment, but I’m betting on his stuff. With proper development, continued velocity gains, and good luck with health, there’s the potential for a future starting prospect within him. I will be monitoring Carra closely moving forward. That’s all I’ve got for this week; let us know what you think in the replies! View full article

Image courtesy of Parker Freedman, Biloxi Shuckers This was a strong month for relievers in the Brewers system, with quite a few making a strong case for this list, which means we will need to begin with a few honorable mentions: HONORABLE MENTIONS LHP - Tyler Jay - Nashville Sounds - 7 G, 8.0 IP, 0-0, 0.00 ERA, 2.46 FIP, 1.12 WHIP, 6 H, 3 BB, 9 K RHP - Craig Yoho - Nashville Sounds - 7 G, 8.0 IP, 2-1, 2.25 ERA, 2.83 FIP, 1.38 WHIP, 6 H, 5 BB, 12 K, 1 SV RHP - Will Childers - Biloxi Shuckers - 9 G, 13.2 IP, 2-1, 2.63 ERA, 2.83 FIP, 1.38 WHIP, 6 H, 8 BB, 19 K, 1 SV RHP - Garrett Hodges - Carolina Mudcats - 6 G, 9.1 IP, 2-0, 0.96 ERA, 4.85 FIP, 1.07 WHIP, 1 H, 9 BB, 11 K TOP FIVE RELIEF PITCHERS FOR MAY #5 RHP - Justin Yeager - Biloxi Shuckers - 7 G, 9.1 IP, 1-1, 1.93 ERA, 1.51 FIP, 0.78 WHIP, 7 H, 2 BB, 12 K, 5 SV Unranked by all publications The third piece that the Brewers received in the infamous Esteury Ruiz for William Contreras and Joel Payamps trade, Yeager was drafted in the 33rd round by the Braves in 2019. His mid-90’s fastball plays extremely well when he gets it up in the zone, due to an Induced Vertical Break averaging close to 20 inches. Yeager’s cutter has more of a short slider shape, and sits in the 86-89 range with a lot of late bite to it. Both pitches have the ability to be above average or better, but they can play down at times due to his lack of command. In May, Yeager led the organization in saves, with five. He struck out 34.3% of the batters he faced and generated whiffs on 27% of swings. Yeager finished the month on a high note with a two inning save on May 30th against Rocket City, not allowing a single baserunner and striking out three of the six batters he faced. Now in his third season with the Brewers organization, and after a strong 2024, Yeager has somewhat surprisingly remained in Double-A to begin 2025. Perhaps another strong month of May will change that. #4 RHP - Tyler Bryant - Biloxi Shuckers - 9 G, 11.2 IP, 1-0, 0.00 ERA, 3.12 FIP, 0.84 WHIP, 4 H, 6 BB, 10 K Unranked by all publications Tyler Bryant had his contract purchased by the Brewers from the Quebec Capitales of the Frontier League in June of 2024. He split the rest of the season between Carolina and Wisconsin, pitching to a 1.82 ERA in 24.2 innings, striking out batters at a 32.4% rate. He was assigned to Double-A Biloxi to begin this season, where he got off to a slow start in April, before quickly turning things around in May. Bryant is equipped with a fastball that borders on being a plus pitch, sitting in the 94-97 MPH range, and touching 98. It is thrown from a very low release height, with around 16 inches of Induced Vertical Break. In spring training it averaged a -3.8 Vertical Approach Angle. When he locates it up in the zone, it can be really difficult for hitters to square up. He also throws a slider and a curveball, both of which are thrown at similarity velocities in the mid-80’s, but with distinct shapes. Bryant didn’t allow a single run in May, after giving up 12 in eight April innings. His strikeout rate of 23% and whiff rate of 25.4% were both average for the level, but he limited hard contact extremely well, which allowed him to work around a walk rate of 12.8%. Bryant’s May got off to a great start when he went 8.1 innings without allowing a single hit. Looking forward, if Bryant can continue to pitch similar to how he did in May, he will be someone to watch as a potential big league bullpen option in the next year or so. He has the stuff for it. #3 RHP - Jack Seppings - Carolina Mudcats - 11 G, 9.0 IP, 0-0, 0.00 ERA, 2.95 FIP, 1.28 WHIP, 9 H, 5 BB, 13 K, 1 SV Unranked by all publications The Brewers signed Seppings as an undrafted free agent following the 2024 draft, out of Brown University. The right-hander had a four inning stint with the Mudcats in 2024, and has returned there to begin 2025. Seppings’ four-seam fastball sits in the 91-93 MPH range with around 19 inches of Induced Vertical Break. He throws an 86-88 MPH cutter/slider which appears to have some similarities to Chad Patrick’s cutter in that he seems to be capable of changing the shape of the pitch depending on whether he’s trying to get a whiff or to land it for a strike. He also throws a sweeper in the low-80’s that he’s comfortable using in any count. In May, Seppings worked around a lot of traffic on the bases, both in terms of hits and walks, to avoid allowing any runs. He struck out over 30% of batters he faced, and he was able to generate whiffs on 34.1% of swings. He recorded his lone save on the month on the 7th, working the final 3.1 innings of a 1-0 victory and striking out four along the way. As a 22 year old, Seppings is one that could be pushed to High-A if he continues to have productive months like he did in May. #2 RHP - Zach Peek - Wisconsin Timber Rattlers - 10 G, 14.1 IP, 2-0, 2.19 ERA, 2.03 FIP, 1.14 WHIP, 9 H, 6 BB, 22 K, 1 SV Unranked by all publications Peek was a Minor League Rule 5 selection by the Brewers this past winter. Coming off numerous injuries, he had not pitched much in professional baseball over the last year and a half. He was sent to High-A this year and has gotten himself off to a solid start, and a very strong May. Peek throws a number of pitches, including a four-seam and a two-seam variation of the fastball. The fastball sits in the 91-93 MPH range and touches 95. He throws a slider in the mid-80’s and he uses it quite a bit. The curveball is thrown in the 78-80 range, with a 12-6 shape. It’s a pitch he goes to when he’s looking for a strikeout against either lefties or righties. He also mixes in a mid-80’s changeup that shows flashes of being an above average pitch. In May, Peek posted a 38.5% strikeout rate and a whiff rate of 29.5%. He was a multi-inning reliever multiple times over the course of the month, and some of his best work happened in his final outing on the 31st, in which Peek threw two innings in extra innings. He allowed only one of the “Manfred Man” runners to score in extra innings, helping lead the Rattlers to an extra inning win. Peek is 27 years old. He should likely get a shot in Double-A sooner rather than later and performances like May only make it more likely that will happen. #1 LHP - Mark Manfredi - Biloxi Shuckers - 8 G, 10 IP, 0-0, 0.90 ERA, 1.43 FIP, 0.80 WHIP, 3 H , 5 BB, 16 K, 1 SV. Unranked by all publications The Brewers used their ninth-round pick in 2023 on this Dayton University left-hander. Manfredi was assigned to High-A Wisconsin in 2024, where he got off to a strong start but struggled with command down the stretch of the season. He did strike out 95 batters in 76 innings and showed flashes of brilliance in his long-relief role. His time in the Arizona Fall League did not go well, with the command issues catching up to him against higher-level offensive competition. He walked 13 in 5.1 innings and posted a 13.5 ERA in his time there. Manfredi’s velocity was down a couple of ticks in the AFL, and it’s possible he was just exhausted from his first full season of professional baseball. Despite his struggles, the Brewers still assigned him to Double-A Biloxi to start 2025. Manfredi is working mostly around his fastball, which is sitting in the 93-96 MPH range and topping out at 97. His upper-80’s changeup has been a big weapon for him as well, especially against right-handed hitters. He rounds out his repertoire with a slider in the mid-80’s that he uses mainly in matchups with lefties. Similar to Tyler Bryant, April did not go all that well for Manfredi, as he again could not find the strike zone with any regularity, walking ten batters in only 6.1 innings pitched and posting an ERA over seven. May was a completely different story. Manfredi’s May was highlighted by striking out 44.4% of the batters he faced, which was well above average for the level. His whiff rate of 31.6% was strong as well. His month was highlighted by his first professional save on May 23, which was of the two inning variety. He did not allow a hit, though he did walk two in the outing. The changeup mentioned earlier was the pitch he used to record the final out. Manfredi’s command is going to continue to be a linchpin for his success, but when he is in and around the zone regularly, there is not a lot of hard contact and quite a few missed bats as well. Thanks for following along with this three-part series on the Brewers' minor league system. Let us know your thoughts below! Did we miss anybody? View full article

I think the missed time may have thrown off his rhythm a bit. I think pitchers are adjusting to him a bit as well, now that they have a report on him as a hitter. He will have to adjust back. The swing is a little inconsistent right now as well and I specifically think he's opening himself up for some vulnerabilities on pitches away from him, and he will have to fix that. But he's still one of the youngest players at the level, and some struggles are to be expected, honestly. Like you said, you can see the tools are definitely there.

Think it's dangerous to rely too much on the running numbers. Many pitchers at that level are downright horrific at holding runners. Obviously, there's not much else to go on currently, so I totally get why people are looking at those numbers, but I think it still just has to be a wait and see situation for the arm. We will know once he gets back in Nashville. Personally, I'm guessing that's next week. Caught a full game yesterday for the first time and has started the last three at catcher instead of DH. I think another full game or two and he will be back, though still with plenty of days off mixed in when he gets to Nashville.

Jack and Spencer recap a chaotic week culminating in a split in Pittsburgh and a sweep at home over the Red Sox, signs of life from a few struggling hitters, whether DL Hall and Aaron Ashby can ease the bullpen's workload, and more. Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-brewer-fanatic-podcast/id1740648724 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5CY8mWsQayqjDXqw9OT2Td iHeartRadio: https://www.iheart.com/podcast/263-the-brewer-fanatic-podcast-166534588/ Pocket Casts: https://pca.st/ommzz627 Watch On YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@brewerfanatic View full article