Spencer Michaelis

Curt Hogg wrote an article on 15 names expected to sign, with some info on each of them today. All were names covered in this list, but some of the names are a bit different than I had them down as. Pepe Soto Mir's full name appears to be Francisco De Marchena Mir Ruben Revost = Ruben Rebost Rickey Moneys = Rickey Money (confirmed with Curt, this is how Ricky was pronouncing it) Jean Rivero = Jean Rivero Ortiz Still feel quite good about the list I'm quoting (updated some of the ranking stuff now that a couple extra got added by BA). I don't believe Angel Rojas will be in the 2026 class, same with Darwin Mateo, but I'm not fully sure on either. I am much more confident that the rest are.

Love this. Will likely take this at the end of the final episode when we cover all the questions that aren’t specific to a level.

Took over a week, but it appears we have a move in 2026! OF Dasan Brown

FWIW, and you can certainly agree or disagree with this general strategy, I have it on good authority that the Brewers took Ruiz in the deal mainly as a trade piece of their own. They were even trying to flip him that same day. The plan was always to use him as a chip because they knew certain teams were very high on him (much like Lewis Brinson back in the day, some teams viewed them as legit top 20 prospects in baseball, some viewed them as fringy big leaguers at best). I don't think they expected Contreras specifically to come of it, but the whole thing wasn't dropped into their lap out of pure luck either.

Here’s where I’ve got the team standing with about 10 days until signing day. Some expected signing bonuses included as well. Moises Salazar is the annual catcher with a really strong arm and interesting tools. Switch-hitter who is better from the right side. Again, not 1000% certain on all of them being 2026 signings, but feel pretty good about them. Pos Name Pipeline Rank BA Bonus Rank SS Diego Frontado ($1.6 mil) 24 26 Instagram SS Jose Rodriguez ($1.5 mil) 49 30 Instagram INF Osiris Ramirez Jr ($300k) N/A N/A Instagram TikTok INF Ricky Moneys ($1 mil) 19 41 Instagram TikTok INF Leander Matos N/A N/A Instagram TikTok C Sebastian Franeites N/A N/A Instagram TikTok INF Ruben Revost ($200k) N/A N/A Instagram OF? Manny De Los Santos ($325k) N/A N/A Instagram LHP Alexander Mercedes ($100k) N/A N/A Instagram IG Video C Moises Salazar ($700k) N/A N/A Instagram TikTok INF Santiago Garcia ($400k) N/A N/A Instagram RHP Joan Gonzalez N/A N/A Instagram C Darwin Mateo (or Jabiel) N/A N/A Instagram RHP Diego Trillo N/A N/A IG Post RHP Daniel Muñoz ($25k) N/A N/A Instagram IG Post C Pepe Soto Mir N/A N/A Instagram OF? Angeni Fernandez N/A N/A Instagram INF Angel Rojas N/A N/A Instagram RHP Miguel Andrade N/A N/A Instagram RHP Jean Rivero N/A N/A Instagram IG Post LHP Roni Pinales N/A N/A Instagram TikTok OF Enrique Llovera ($140k) N/A N/A Instagram IG Post RHP Marcos Vera ($130k) N/A N/A N/A

Obviously not who you replied to, but I get what he's saying so I'll explain my logic. I would say, at least from a read standpoint, it was always much easier for me personally. Much easier to read if the batter is early/late from straight on. Along with the reads being easier, the ball also moves in a much more expected way. To your right it usually continues to go that way, to your left, the same. When players pull their hands in to pull the ball or shoot one to the opposite field there can be a bit less consistency in the flight of the ball in the corners. Some balls you'd think would keep hooking actually have some fade to them, etc. That rarely ever happens when it's in the middle of the field. You also don't have to deal with foul territory and the side walls in center. The obvious issue is the distance that needs to be covered in center requires pretty big-time speed, and there's also the fact that mistakes are always going to be amplified out there compared to the corners (though any outfield mistake is usually pretty noticeable).

Joseph and I are planning to record the Carolina episode the day after Christmas. If you have Carolina specific questions, this would be a good time to get those in!

I think that article came out a while ago, but the BA people pushed it out there again because the kid who the Mets got in the McNeil trade was included in there. Re-reading it now, and based on what I've heard about Diustin Mayorquin, I'm pretty surprised he missed the list.

Believe it's actually the Fangraphs comments that I started this thread with that you're thinking of haha. Here's the article itself. Yeah, I've been surprised by the view of the changeup since he entered pro ball. The concern seems to be with the command of the pitch, I personally have a hard time believing he can't command it and rather would speculate that he purposely left it out of the zone regularly in college, because he still got swings against it, without any of the risk.

It’s definitely tough to quantify. Sometimes these late round signings are just using the money they have left over, so they give them more than they might have if they took them in the 8th or 9th. That said, the bonus does tell a pretty good story. Bentley signed for what amounts to late third round bonus money. Though once you take the $150k that doesn’t count toward the pool out, it’s closer to late 4th round money. My guess is they viewed him as a 5th round talent, or somewhere around there. The same was the case for a Renz type. For both of them though, I’d bet the actual signability was not very well known. Which means taking him as high as they had them graded would be a risk because you don’t know if you’d be able to sign them, and then you’d lose that slot money the rest of the draft. The MLB Draft is just such an interesting puzzle it’s very hard to say for sure no matter what, but that would be my guess, or at least part of it haha

Just seeing this here now, answered on Twitter. He certainly has the build to add velo in pro ball. Super fun pick, will be very curious to see where they place him this spring/summer and if he ends up in Carolina at all.

They do, though my understanding is if they break down, it's almost always from the team's side, and because teams have relationships with the academies that they're signing these players from and want to be able to sign future players from there, they don't tend to break down unless there's a very good reason for it.

Yeah, the system is horrible. I wonder about the potential for backlash too, but nobody is going to call another team out since, like you said, they're all doing it. The organizations these kids play for are posting all the pre-agreements their players are making (not the money usually) on their Instagram pages, etc. The draft seems like the way to go in the grand scheme, but I also fully understand why the players would like to have the right to negotiate with 30 teams and pick where they end up.

I have yet to come across anyone beyond 2029 but there are 5 names for 2029 already lol

Little fun nugget on a player that isn't even signing for 4 classes, but Melkin Guzman has a pre-agreement with the Brewers for $2.3 million in the 2029 class. He's 13-years-old, 6'1", runs a 6.7 60-yard dash and has been gunned at 93 MPH from the outfield. Some video below, where he definitely appears to have the frame of a kid his age, so no clear signs of any age issues. Never know, but I believe this would be the biggest bonus the Brewers have given anyone since the infamous Gilbert Lara, so they're clearly *very* high on him. miracles (@miracles_baseball) • Instagram reel WWW.INSTAGRAM.COM 164 likes, 4 comments - miracles_baseball on October 12, 2025: "🌟 Melkin Guzmán 📍 Puerto Plata, Dominican Republic 🗓️ April 14, 2012 ⚾️ CF | R/R 📏 6’1” | 170 lbs 🎓 Class of January...

Here's my current list of names that I am *pretty* confident will be signing in the Brewers 2026 class in about a month (it's so hard to say for sure on all of these though). At least one or two of the ones I listed earlier in the thread appear to be 2027 signings, so there might be a few missing from my earlier list. Pos Name Pipeline Rank BA Bonus Rank SS Diego Frontado 24 24 Instagram SS Jose Rodriguez 49 28 Instagram INF Osiris Ramirez Jr N/A N/A Instagram TikTok INF Ricky Moneys N/A 19 Instagram TikTok INF Leander Matos N/A N/A Instagram TikTok C Sebastian Franeites N/A N/A Instagram TikTok INF Ruben Rebost N/A N/A Instagram OF Manny De Los Santos N/A N/A Instagram LHP Alexander Mercedes N/A N/A Instagram IG Video C Moises Salazar N/A N/A Instagram TikTok INF Santiago Garcia N/A N/A Instagram RHP Joan Gonzalez N/A N/A Instagram C Darwin Mateo (or Jabiel) N/A N/A Instagram TikTok RHP Diego Trillo N/A N/A IG Post N/A Daniel Muñoz N/A N/A Instagram IG Post C Pepe Soto Mir N/A N/A Instagram

Speaking of Francys Romero, he reports the Brewers signed RHP Alejandro Bustamante as part of their 2024-25 International pool as well, which is interesting because that international pool closed yesterday I believe. May just be a matter of announcing it, as the paperwork appeared to be done by 12/5 at least based on the post. 18-year-old out of Cuba, the post notes he has a chance to start and has a four pitch mix with his slider standing out: CH 84-85 SL 83-84 SINK 89-90 FB 91-93 Francys Romero (@francysromerofr) • Instagram photos and videos WWW.INSTAGRAM.COM 743 likes, 51 comments - francysromerofr on December 5, 2025: "El pitcher derecho cubano 🇨🇺 Alejandro Bustamante firmó oficialmente con...

Couple notes on this. According to Francys Romero's Substack, at the end of October the Brewers had about $407,000 left in their 2025 bonus pool for international players. My guess is that these two and Jesus Vasquez all got actual bonuses of some sort. Likely nothing crazy, but they had some money to spend. Here is Bello's Instagram (quick glance shows him following Red Sox pitcher Bryan Bello as one of the few he follows, wonder if there's any relation...) And Duarte's Instagram Neither of their pages show video or anything regarding their stuff unfortunately.

I had decent experiences the last few years, especially in the hoodie/sweatshirt department. This year the selection was pretty brutal. I bought one hat and a souvenir baseball. The discounts seem to get smaller every year now too.

Was actually just coming here to post about this after listening myself lol. Very good stuff, Heard similarly about Mills' bat at the workout from a source post-draft, but the defense stuff was news to me. Loved hearing about Dubanewicz's bulldog type of attitude, think that can go a very long way as a pitcher, assuming you have the requisite decent or better stuff, which he does.

Also, the Southern League was a much different hitting environment in 2022. League average OPS in the Southern League in 2022 was .752, but it was only .660 in 2025. Frelick's OPS was .844, but his wRC+ was 121 as a 22-year-old in Biloxi. Lara's OPS was .712 but his wRC+ was 116 as a 20-year-old.

It's a little tough to look at MLB's draft this way, due to the signing bonus portion of things. Benge got $540K more than Payne did and Yesavage got $720K more. All else being equal, that's basically the difference between signing Tyler Renz and not signing him. Now, I also preferred those two--and some others--to Payne at the time (see tweet below), so I get it, but I do think it's always a lot harder to play this game with the MLB draft, compared to the NFL or NBA one. All that said, I also do like Payne quite a bit as a prospect and I think saying he has to be a star for it not to be a miss is a bit of hyperbole.

Yep they can, assuming the rules are the same in the new CBA like you said.

As expected, in my opinion, nobody else will be protected, per Adam McCalvy:

Image courtesy of Brian Fitzpatrick The Rule 5 Draft is on December 10th, but the deadline to protect players from the draft is November 18th. Unlike recent offseasons, there are no surefire additions for the Brewers, and there may not even be any coin-flip options. There are three pitchers and one position player who can at least make a case, though. The four players with cases are among the 31 eligible players to be selected this year. The complete list is available in our forums, along with a more detailed explanation of what makes a player eligible for selection in the draft. Brewers fans are well aware of the dangers of leaving a player unprotected, as they witnessed one of their prospects become the number one selection in last year's draft, and proceeded to watch the previously mentioned Shane Smith pitch his way to an All-Star appearance, or at least a "White Sox need an All-Star" appearance, in his debut season. Following the addition of Coleman Crow to the 40-man roster last week, keeping him from minor league free agency, the Brewers currently have 38 of the 40 spots filled. Thus, they could add two players to the roster without any additional moves, but the question is whether they will feel the need to do so with any of the 31 eligible players. None of these four players has as strong a case as Smith or Chad Patrick had in 2024, but they do all have a case. Pitchers: LHP Brian Fitzpatrick The Brewers used their tenth-round selection on Brian Fitzpatrick in 2022, drafting him out of Rutgers. Having spent time in a starter's role and a relief role in the past, all of Fitzpatrick's appearances in 2025 were out of the bullpen, though many were of the multi-inning variety. After returning to High-A to begin the season, Fitzpatrick was quickly pushed to Double-A in 2025. In 34 ⅔ innings, he posted an impressive 1.82 ERA, to go along with a 2.99 FIP. He struck out 28.6% of batters in Biloxi, and only walked 7.5% of them. He was promoted again to Triple-A, where his first outing was a significant struggle, as he allowed six earned runs in one inning. However, in the final 17 ⅔ innings of his season that followed, he had a 4.08 ERA and a 3.78 FIP. His numbers aren't what land him on this list, though. It's his repertoire and his build that are most intriguing. A true five-pitch pitcher, Fitzpatrick can keep hitters on their toes, especially in shorter stints. He throws a two-seam fastball and a four-seam fastball in the 92-94 MPH range, reaching back for 95 at times. This was a velocity jump for him from having sat 90-92 in the past. He also mixes in a short slider in the mid-80s and a bigger sweeper in the upper-70s. His best pitch is his 82-84 MPH changeup, which he averages around 17 inches of run on. Standing 6'7" and generating about the same amount of extension from the left side, Fitzpatrick has qualities that are likely to be intriguing to big league organizations. Will it be enough to protect him? Likely not, but there is enough here not to rule it out. Likelihood of protection: 15% RHP Will Childers Childers is a legacy of the Brewers, as his father, Matt, was a Brewers draft pick in 1997 and debuted for the Brewers in 2002. Will was an undrafted signing after the 2022 draft after attending the University of Georgia, where he spent the majority of his time injured after a strong freshman season. He didn't appear in his first professional games until June of 2023 as he continued to rehab. After 38 ⅔ innings of 2.33 ERA and 3.08 FIP pitching in Double-A, Childers didn't see the same success in Triple-A. His 4.50 ERA looks respectable, but the 6.07 FIP tells a different story. You don't have to look much further than three of the more important stats to see why FIP is low on him. His strikeout rate went from 30.9% in Biloxi to 18.4% in Nashville. His walk rate went up from an already high 11.2% to 15.8% after the promotion. Beyond that, he also allowed an unsavory 1.38 home runs per nine innings, nearly double the 0.70 number he had posted in Biloxi. Like Fitzpatrick, Childers has a deep repertoire for a reliever, and like Fitzpatrick, it's not his results that warrant him a look. His main fastball is a four-seam, which tends toward the "cut/carry" profile, thrown in the 95-97 MPH range and reaching 99. His sinker is a dead-zone shape thrown in a similar velocity band, though the movement appears to be late, helping the pitch play better than the overall shape would suggest. He throws a cutter in the upper 80s, but it can blend into a shorter slider at times. It's a pitch that could use some sharpening, but it shows signs of being above average. Childers also throws a curveball in the 82-84 MPH range, with sharp, downward bite. Based on his struggles in Triple-A and his injury history, he seems unlikely to be protected, but his pure stuff and the impressive showing in Double-A do give him a fighter's chance. Likelihood of protection: 10% RHP Blake Holub Holub was acquired from the Tigers for Mark Canha following the 2023 season. There are similarities to Childers with Holub. His walk rate in Triple-A was 16.8%, and he has a cut/carry fastball, though Holub's has a lot more true cut, and is even classified as a cutter. Holub struggled in his first taste of Triple-A in 2024 as well. His overall numbers in 2025 were strong. He had a 3.70 ERA and a 3.54 FIP, brought along by a 29.1 whiff-rate and striking out 28.6% of batters faced. The walk rate was a problem for him, but the contact quality was weak, which, when combined with his ability to generate swing and miss, helped him limit runs. Along with his interesting cutter, which he throws in the 93-95 MPH range and can reach 97 with, Holub throws his slider around 43% of the time. Sitting around 85 MPH, the slider generates a lot of ground balls and has good depth to it. He rounds out his repertoire with a very rare splitter. Holub is already 27 years old, and he is a relief-only pitcher at this point. The Brewers are unlikely to protect a player like Holub, but he is someone that a team could view as an option to fill a relief role right away, with a little upside if they can help him limit the walks a bit more, and perhaps are willing to let him lean on the splitter a bit more often. Likelihood of protection: 10% Position Players Catcher: Matt Wood -- FanGraphs #43 prospect A fourth-round pick out of Penn State in 2022, Wood got off to a solid, if unspectacular, start in High-A this season. He was promoted to Double-A in late May, and that's when he began to really make his case. His wRC+ improved from 103 in 116 plate appearances (as well as 100 in 379 plate appearances in 2024) to an impressive 134 with Biloxi in 245 plate appearances. He hit a career-high six home runs as well. However, the biggest reason he now has an outside chance at protection was the strides he made behind the plate. According to Baseball Prospectus, Wood went from -2.3 Catching Defense Added in 2023 to an improved 2.7 in 2024, but he jumped all the way up to 6.5 in 2025. After throwing out 20.4% of stolen base attempts in parts of three seasons in High-A, Wood threw out 27.2% of runners in Double-A. He also showed improvement in blocking and receiving. Position players are naturally less likely to be selected in the Rule 5 Draft, as they are a bit harder to hide in the big leagues for a full season, but a team that is looking for a backup catcher could see Wood as a player on the upswing that would be worth a flier. Likelihood of protection: 10% Other Names of Note RHP Yerlin Rodriguez Rodriguez is not going to be protected; his walk rate has been over 20% each of the last two seasons in High-A, but his stuff warrants mention. He has been up to 101 MPH in his minor league career, and his slider can be a wipeout pitch for him at times. If a team is willing to take a shot on his stuff, the Brewers will likely let them take that chance. RHP Nick Merkel Merkel has shown a wide repertoire out of the bullpen. Mixing six pitches with all three fastball variations, two breaking balls, and a changeup. He combines that with seven feet of extension and decent command. His velocity is only in the low-90s, but a FIP of 2.94 and a bunch of average or better pitches will garner some interest. Of the players in this category, he may be the most likely to be selected, but given that he never got the call to Triple-A in 2025, he seems unlikely to be protected. UTIL Ethan Murray Murray is the lone position player in this section, mainly due to his Double-A performance. The former fifth-round pick posted a very strong 146 wRC+ with Biloxi, but his performance did not carry over to Triple-A, where his wRC+ was 44 in 114 plate appearances. While his average exit velocity of 89.7 MPH was above average, he lacked top-end power. Outside of making decent swing decisions, the rest of the peripheral stats were all well below average. He's a serviceable shortstop defensively and above-average at second base, capable of helping at third and in left field as well. He's unlikely to be selected and almost certainly won't be protected. It would have to be considered an upset if anyone is protected by the Brewers this season, barring an outside acquisition, along the lines of the Oliver Dunn trade two offseasons ago. If they do protect anyone, they have to come from this group. Is there anyone we missed? Should anyone be protected from this group? 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