Lathund

As always interesting to see how differently people weigh certain aspects like the defensive spectrum, starters vs relievers, age, proximity to majors, how much to value recent stats etc. And as always, some real headscratchers but I guess this thread is for voting and not discussing lists. 1. Trent Grisham 2. Brice Turang 3. Mario Feliciano 4. Tristen Lutz 5. Aaron Ashby 6. Ethan Small 7. Trey Supak 8. Zack Brown 9. Eduardo Garcia 10. Payton Henry 11. Drew Rasmussen 12. Corey Ray 13. Antoine Kelly 14. Carlos Rodriguez 15. Jacob Nottingham 16. Micah Bello 17. Max Lazar 18. Troy Stokes Jr 19. Lucas Erceg 20. Thomas Dillard 21. Dylan File 22. Noah Zavolas 23. Andres Melendez 24. Tyrone Taylor 25. David Fry 26. Adam Hill 27. Clayton Andrews 28. Joe Gray 29. Alec Bettinger 30. Nick Kahle

That's one poor defensive outfield by the Cubs. It can mash, but I'm hoping to see them live up (or down rather) to their defensive metrics.

Most of that is accounted for with a few blowouts. We had the worst run differential of playoff teams last year, and we were almost in the World Series. Last year we lost by 3-4, but won by 1-2. Same thing this year Except we had a fantastic bullpen last year and this year's bullpen smells like what comes out after babies eat crayons The bullpen hasn't been great overall, no argument about that. But while the Brewers bullpen overall is 16th in the majors with a 4.53 ERA, the pitchers on the active roster are 8th (Compared to the other current rosters) with a 3.54 ERA in relief, or T-6th with an ERA- of 80. Much of the poor record in the bullpen belongs to Williams, Wilson, Burnes, Smith, Wilkerson, Barnes, D. Guerra. Those numbers do include the numbers as a reliever of Houser, who might currently be in the rotation, but even so. This bullpen isn't horrible or a dumpster fire or historically bad or whatever other hyperbolic ways I've seen it described. You could say it's not the kind of bullpen you want if you're relying heavily on your 'pen and that'd be fair, but that's not entirely on them but also on the rotation and the (lack of) offense.

Per Baseball Savant, Brewers shift on 36.5% of all plate appearances. So he plays traditional SS ~63.5% of the time. I agree that for a couple of innings to finish the game it's not a big deal, but shifting hasn't gotten to the point where it has significantly affected the defensive requirements to play the position well.

Whether they have been good at it or not in the past is entirely irrelevant, it's still what they have to succeed in doing if they ever want to win anything. There's nothing that says that a team has to be good or bad at something forever. If it's not the same people drafting, not the same draftees, not the same pitching coaches, not the same analysts, not the same strength coaches, not the same facilities, not the same minor league affiliates etc then why would it matter wha tthe previous results were? "Our predecessors were bad at developing pitching, so we shouldn't even bother" isn't the way to go.

I always get this bad feeling with bases loaded nobody out.

He might hit, or he might not. But consider this; Saladino hit well, but had "only" a 123 wRC+, or rather was 23% better than the league average (FWIW Minor league wRC+ is league adjusted but not park adjusted unlike the MLB version, something I very recently learned). As a current-year MLB comparison, that's what Yasmani Grandal, Manny Machado and Tommy Pham are hitting this year, and would rank T-69th (nice) out of 336 players with 150+ PAs. Keston Hiura in AAA produced a 154 wRC+, which is right in line what he's doing in the majors so far (152), which is the 10th best in MLB with the same PA qualifier. Trent Grisham has a 193 wRC+ in AAA. Noone in the majors can match that. Mike Trout came close in 2018 with 191. In the last 30 years, there have been 5 seasons of a wRC+ of 193 or more and at least 500 PAs; Barry Bonds three time (including an utterly absurd 244 wRC+ in 2002) as well as Bryce Harper (197) and Miggy Cabrera (193). That's it. Now of course comparing between leagues doesn't really say much about what Grisham will do going forward, and I would imagine that the wider range of talent in AAA will make the outliers more extreme there. He does lead the PCL here among those with 150+ PA, but with two players (Kevin Cron and Ty France) at 191 and 189. Yordan Alvarez is 4th witih 170, Hiura 8th with 154, and those two are matching or beating that in the majors. Yes the balls are juiced, yes the PCL is very hitter-friendly, but when comparing him to his peers playing in the same environment he's outperforming them by more than Mike Trout has ever outperformed the league (as a hitter that is. A good defensive CF who runs the bases well in addition to that makes him a god among men). So then there's the sample size. And yes, that's small. That's the one caveat. It's not tiny or entirely insignificant, but it's small. However while his BABIP is high it's not absurdly so, and he walks at a 14.6% clip while striking out only 13.9% of the time. Those aren't inflated by high-altitude big PCL ballparks, and the baseballs tiny effect on it will be the same in the majors. Baseball Prospectus' DRC+ stat, which has a lot of built-in regression which flattens the range a bit (The range between best and worst tends to be smaller than with OPS+ or wRC+ even when the individual order is the same) and takes a while to be convinved about a performance, and is skeptical about BABIP-driven (Or more accurately perhaps, by a ton of singles) performance, grades Grisham in AAA at 194 DRC+, and 167 in AA. Trout leads the majors at 176, yelich is 3rd with 166. Yes there is a big step up, and no he very likely won't mash homers at the absurd rate he is (Over 650 PAs that'd a 53 HR pace) in AAA, but there is a lot to suggest his performance isn't a fluke. Now could it be that the underlying performance, while real, is something he won't repeat? Sure. But if you're 93-94% better than your peers, you can fall off a lot and still be damn good. It's good to not have too high expectations, and especially to not freak out if there is an adjustment period. But if Braun can match Aguilars production at 1B, and Grisham can match Braun's slightly-above average hitting at LF that's already a win. It likely improved the LF defense, while significantly upgrading base running. Grisham's consistently great eye at the plate and disciplined approach makes him someone who should have a high floor as a hitter.

If Grandal comes back it won't be as a result of the mutual option. It's for $16m, with a $2.25m buyout that he gets (as I understand it) even if the Brewers opt in and Grandal opts out. Why would he opt in for what's essentially $13.75m for one year? This time there is no qualifying offer, and he's having a very good season. He's getting more than the $18.25m guaranteed he got last year, for sure.

Add in FF and Knebel and Wahl. Looking ahead to next season, the pen could rival the 2018 group. Faria may be in the plans to be a rotation guy. Drawing a blank on FF? What about Rasmussen (I think that's who it was) who was getting so much attention a few months ago as possibly coming up this year? I'm presuming it's Fastball Freddy.

I mean I wouldn't say there not *any* chance, but I doubt that's the move. Jacob Barnes, Donnie Hart, Burch Smith, Aaron Wilkerson are all on the 40-man.

Castellanos can't play defense and doesn't hit RHP well. Still, obviously a better hitter than someone like Almora and does improve their outfield offense but it's a minor improvement at best. I'd have it the other way around tbh. Schwarber isn't good in the OF, but having a cannon for an arm at least gives him some redeeming qualities. Castellanos truly is a terrible outfielder. As a 3B in his debut season he even came close to matching Braun (-30 DRS vs Braun's record-setting(?) -32 DRS).

It'd be just as much of a single hard deadline if it was August 15th though.

I'm a huge Greinke fan, and despite knowing there was close to a 0% chance I was hoping for Brewers to get him. But apparently the deal is for (Using Fangraphs FV as it's easy to access) RHP Corbin Martin, RHP J.B Bukauskas (Both of them 50 FV), 1B/OF/DH Seth Beer (40+) and Josh Rojas (Unranked, 25yo 2B with a 136 wRC+ in AAA), and Astros will be on the hook for 54 of the 77m he is owed. I think that's still OK for Houston considering how good they already were, and how stacked this makes their pitching staff, but that's quite a good haul for the Dbacks. Not sure I'd want to pay $53m over the next 2 1/3 seaons *and* give up (Purely in terms of matching FV; Dbacks probably wanted pitching so this deal likely wouldn't have worked anyway) Turang, Lutz (Brewers only two 50 FVs), Ashby and ... I don't really know who else. I mean it's Greinke so I might have still, but it's the kind of deal that makes sense for the Astros (And would have for the Dodgers or Yankees too), but not really for the Brewers.

Obviously his numbers are going to be lower in the Majors, but I believe someone said recently (maybe on Twitter or maybe here) that he's 3rd in the PCL in DRC+ and that was before the cycle. There's still something to outperforming everyone else in the league, even if it's a hitter friendly league, and word was he was still crushing the ball at AA as well in a more pitcher friendly environment. He hasn't sold out for power either. It's really really hard to poke holes in his season. It really looks legit. I wasn't arguing athat he wasn't for real, or not performing well. Just replying to the point brought up regarding his BABIP between AA and AAA. He has been about the same in relation to AAA as Trout has been to MLB, which even if that isn't his true talent level you still need to be a good player to do for even a couple of months.

After an initially very negative reaction, I'm starting to feel a bit better about it. Still not good, but better. I think my initial reaction had much to do with overrating Dubon. He's a guy I've liked from the minute we traded for him, and who I've felt irrationally positive about. From everything I've seen and read he's not a very high ceiling guy, at best an average starter but more likely somewhere between utility man and low-end starter. Yet I've somehow had the feeling, or hope, he'd exceed that. The fact that I really don't believe in Arcia, and was hoping Dubon could be the solution probably clouded things further. Pomeranz as a reliever has a 3.24 FIP / 2.83 ERA in 90-odd innings. Black will have 5 or 6 years of team control beyond this season, and has some serious strikeout numbers (13.5 K/9 in the majors, 16.8 in the minors) so there is a lot of upside there if he figures it out. Definitely a risky move though. I think I'd feel much better about it if the SS situation looked better, as I think Dubon would've been worth auditioning even if we know he wouldn't be a slam dunk guarantee. But I can only imagine the front office didn't rate him all that highly, and perhaps didn't want to see him struggle in the majors? With how Arcia and Saladino have played they really must not have liked him considering he was never given a chance, and both those guys have options.

Initial reaction was very much negative. But Pomeranz has performed well as a reliever, and a guy with Black's strikeout numbers and team control is intriguing I suppose so I'm not going to freak out about it and instead try to trust Stearns. Was hoping to get more for Dubon though, or to see him replace Arcia who I have very little confidence in.

A lot of (comparatively) high-altitude ballparks in the PCL, which helps BABIP. They're often bigger as well to compensate. And then there's this year's baseball. And BABIP in general in the minors is going to be higher due to worse defense, and (I think) less shifting. Overall a bunch of things that could explain the increased BABIP as he moved up, including a few more % worth of Linedrives. Generally a high HR/FB rate will drive up BABIP as well, since fly balls that don't go for HRs tend to be outs far more often than grounders or linedrives. But BABIP is one of the slowest stats there is when it comes to stabilization rate, I recall it being 1200 PAs or so, though not sure if that was for pitchers or hitters. Regardless, he doesn't have enough PAs at either level to say anything conclusively even if it would seem he was, as you say, unlucky at AA and having some more luck in AAA.

I like it. 4+ years of team control for Faria as well. Did not expect this kind of return for Aguilar. I don't think either player will have a massive impact, but still seems like a win-win trade. Both teams trading from a surplus or position of strength to fill a need. Aguilar was always an awkward fit on the roster as a 1B-only, much easier to fit a guy like that in when you have a DH spot. Will be interesting to see what the Brewers do at 1B now, and if that results in any other promotions (Grisham, Freitas, Dubon?)

Alex Wood is an interesting option. It assumes, of course, that the Reds acquired Bauer for 2020 and not for competing in 2019. One of the best pitchers likely to be available. The risk involved is that he's only pitched 16 innings between the minors and majors this year, but that perhaps also brings the acquisition cost down. If we're looking at rentals, he's one of my top choices.

Grisham is an MLB-ready or extremely close to it prospect with some upside. And he really isn't blocked next year, spreading playing time between 4 OFs is still plenty of at bats to go around, especially in the NL. Braun, and to a lesser degree Cain, will need their off days. Perhaps some 1B for Braun too. Gamel has options. And then there's the extra roster spot next year. With Grisham I'll take the same stance I took with Hiura, Peralta, Burnes, Woodruff and Hader (Well, and Lewis Brinson too to be fair... at least I'm consistent); If you're looking to compete over the next few years, and it's not a complete all-in for 1-2 years only to rebuild after, you generally don't trade guys with 6-7 years of team control who look likely to help you in just the window you're looking for. I don't believe much in trying to "sell high" as a strategy, at least not as the primary motivation for a trade. If you don't believe in a prospect, or that prospect is blocked, then yeah by all means try to sell high if selling was the likely outcome anyway. But it's not much of a strategy otherwise. It's a good way to miss out on breakout players, and it's not going to gain you much even when you're right in many cases. His trade value won't have risen as much as his performances have, even among teams who believed in him beforehand, so it's not really even selling high. To me, if you truly believe in a prospect who's close to contributing (i.e risk is lower), you keep him. If you trade him away, it's because you get a long-term true impact player like Yelich and Sale in recent years. Braun has been like a 107 wRC+ hitter with average to below average defense in LF over the last three years. You don't have to fully buy into Grishams breakout to believe that he can at least match that. Which, starting in 2021, frees up 15-18m for other positions without weakening the team. That's why you develop prospects, even a league-average or low-end starter who's cheap for 4-5 seasons is valuable in that it saves you spending money on those positions and can put it to use on impact players. Prospects don't need to be stars to be worthwhile. Keeping Grisham is a very defensible move even for those who don't fully believe in what he's doing this year. Trading him is only really a good move if another team truly views him as one of the best hitting prospects around, and are willing to value him as such.

A (still not yet complete) season of 108 wRC+, at a level he's still very young for, doesn't (or shouldn't) really alter someones prospect status. Especially as he's not some bat first 1B or some such, he has great speed on the bases and in the OF. Reyes is terrible defensively which takes away a lot of value. It does seem like they're selling really low on Allen, has been poor in 2019 but still only 22.

And you know this how? PDCBalla is better known as ElevatedWarmness91.

Yes, if a team claims him he'll go on their 40-man roster. Because of that I think there's a decent chance he passes through waivers and remains in the organization.

The front office knows Lyles from last year, and so their apparent belief that he's better than his recent outings (He did have a sub-4 ERA entering July) should have more support behind it than is usually the case. I thought he looked good whenever I saw him last year. Ponce is a 25 yo relief prospect who is in his 3rd year at AA. One of like 6-7 relievers in AA/AAA who are rule 5-eligible in the offseason. FG don't even have him listed as a 35 FV anymore. Some of those relievers might make it, most won't. If Cody is one of them, good for him and I wish him all the best. But I don't have any problem whatsoever with the trade. From a pure value standpoint you could argue that the $1.7m saved is worth more. The decision to not exercise the option had to be made early in the offseason, and I don't think that the injury to Knebel and the poor performance in the rotation of all three of Chacin, Peralta and Burnes was predictable. I was a bit surprised by Brewers letting him go, but I certainly understand why they did it.

I think it is 500 and that is just when it starts to become meaningfully predictive at all, not in relation to FIP. ERA is just an awful stat to judge a pitcher by. ERA is a poor stat indeed, which is why it surprised me when I saw that 400 IP number, I would have expected it to be higher. Before I made that post I tried to find the article I read it in to make sure I had it right, I had remembered it as being part of the articles launching SIERA but that wasn't it and I couldn't find it. It may have been something along the lines of looking only at players who had remained with the same team, which would naturally reduce the effects of ballparks and quality of defense, but that's just speculation. Either way I remember it because it surprised me, and the data and methodoly seemed sound so it stuck out.