Humans Need Water

Roache a completely different player than Keston. Brewers just landed a 2b with excellent bat to ball skills that hits line to line with solid power for that position. Huge fan of this pick

Agreed, but being better than last year was not my standard. They were billed as a top 5 system, some sources had them top 2 or 3. I mean, who cares what MY expectations are, I get that. Just saying, Top 10 has been really mediocre. I was speaking in general giving my own opinion on the system (Top 30 mainly). I understand what you're getting at but the season isn't over. Not every elite player puts up other wordly numbers every level of the minors nor do it every single month throughout the season. Moncada's OPS is 100pts lower than it's "supposed" to be. In fact, he's had a 747 OPS since May 1. I don't think our Top 10 has been mediocre though when factoring everything in. Brinson - great AAA, MLB debut Ray - this is his first full season in pro ball and started season late due to injury. since May 1 is 265/357/783 (117 wRC+). he'll bump that up moving forward too. he's at a 28% line drive rate. that's excellent and means he's squaring balls up Hader - CS is his issue. that's half the reason he's in the Brewers pen (other half being they desperately need him, plus he's lefty). we'll all see him produce the results he's had in past years Ortiz - few bad starts otherwise absolutely killing it Diaz - heading into June wasn't doing too bad actually 245/329/776 (112 wRC+) but past 10 games he's been terrible. he's fully capable of killing it in the 2nd half like last year Clark - hasn't hit for average or power but his ability to work the count and get on base is insane. 2.5yrs young for level. will be interesting to see how he adjusts in the 2nd half hitting wise. this is also his first full season as last year only played like 55 games due to injuries Erceg - struggling everywhere but his talent is still clear as day. it'll click eventually Woodruff - has been great at times and been hit at times. but he's pounding the zone and attacking. CS is an issue with him too Dubon - since May 1 is 303/366/776 (127 wRC+) and been killing it on the bases Phillips - great AAA, MLB debut BB and K rates on season Ray 11% BB, 32% K Diaz 13% BB, 24% K Clark 17% BB, 27% K Erceg 4% BB, 19% K Ray is striking out way too much for his skill set but that will come down. He's also hitting line drives almost 30% of his ABs. That's nuts. Diaz's numbers are good for both. Clark's BB rate is nunzeo and he'll bring his K rate down as he develops because he's very young for level. Erceg's BB rate sucks but his K rate is good. The reason I listed the above is because it proves that we can't ultimately judge them in full one way or the other because, collectively, they're hitting the ball and walking. Given their overall numbers are what they are the questions I have would be - what are their overall contact rates, what about contact rates for pitches swung at inside and outside the zone, exit velocity, soft/medium/hard contact rates. We don't have answers to these questions. We have box scores, which we all know don't tell the entire story. Unless you're going through Game Cast every night seeing what they actually do every AB we won't have these answers and this info matters and can tell a story for how well they're actually swinging the bat. I get that these guys are all 1st and 2nd rd picks and there are certain expectations as a result of that but this is the first full season of pro ball for Ray and Erceg. Clark is young and Diaz hasn't been as bad as his numbers suggest. They're going to have growing pains even if they're advanced college bats. How they adjust and grow throughout the season will be more telling than what they've done through 2 full months at this point. Hader and Woodruff, for me, I pay no attention to what they do in CS because they just need to get their innings in.

I'm not disappointed at all. Brinson, Phillips, Cordell are all performing to the level they should be as that's what they're capable of. Ray was coming off an injury and I'm sure to a certain extent that contributed to a slow start but since May 1 he's been plenty solid (same goes for Nottingham). Diaz started off good and has hit a huge slow streak. Clark isn't hitting for average but his ability to work the count and get on base has been outstanding (he's also 2.5yrs young for level). Erceg, like Clark, should have started at A and if they were performing very well after 6wks should have been up in A+. Erceg was excellent his first 4 games in A last year and the rest of his games left more to be desired. He's no doubt talented but that doesn't mean he needed to start in A+ this year. All these players are still developing and have things to work on. They're all talented enough to move levels throughout the year. Dubon isn't driving the ball like he did last year in AA but he's doing everything else pretty well. He's still physically maturing and developing. We aren't even halfway through the season. If some of these guys (Diaz, Eceg, Clark) have much better 2nd halves then it shows they're improving and making adjustments and can still move a level next year. Diplan is struggling in A+ but he's also 20yrs old. I'm not surprised he's inconsistent. Peralta is a year older so where would Diplan be in 1yr from now? Hader and Woodruff shouldn't be expected to dominate in CS. Ortiz has had a few bad starts otherwise has been out of this world. Peralta is performing just like he did last year in A. Burnes should have been in the Top 15 to begin with as he's very talented and could have been a late 1st or 2nd rd pick. Ponce has improved greatly over last year and is pounding the zone. Kodi has greatly improved his BB rate and has been great as a reliever while just turning 21 I believe. Gatewood has made drastic mechanical improvements and is putting himself back on the map. Harrison has been solid this year and staying pretty healthy. Supak was excellent in A and having growing pains so far in A+ so it'll be interesting to see how he improves. Feliciano has exceeded all expectations in A. Overall, the Brewers are in a good position and definitely a better position than they were this point last year.

I liked what I saw from Drew Ellis over the weekend. Not a fan of his upper body setup but once his hands are back from there on out he's pretty smooth and balanced; barrels up the ball. He looks like he's 35yrs old too. Out of curiosity, you mentioned in the article that you weren't a fan of Faedo due to his overuse of this slider. If he alters his use of it where he's not heavily dependent on it then how does that change your opinion on him? I ask because it seems like that would be something that can pretty easily be changed and worked on in the minors.

I don't know about that. It was always my understanding that a tenant of the modern metrics movement was that there is no singular perfect statistic and that one should use multiple statistics to evaluate a player. I would think, to a very large degree, that most folks on this board wold adhere to that tenet. Just because someone uses a particular stat to refute a point does not mean they only took that one stat into account. Likewise, Colbyjack just confirmed a long held belief of mine that actual, professional, talent evaluators use different metrics (and probably in a much different way) than any of us armchair analysts even understand. If it was as simple as collecting stats and running them through a couple of formulas, 90% of the folks on this site would have a different profession. I also think in-person scouting gets discounted way too much. I can have all the stats in the world on a player but I still crave all of the in-person reports I can find (and no, I don't think watching video is the equivalent of actually watching a game). The case of Mr. Nottingham is interesting. Is the real Nottingham the one of the first 60 AB's or the one of the last 90 AB's? Someone mentioned an inflated OBP for Nottingham due to a high number of HBP's. Things is, 60% of those abnormally high HBP's came during the first 60 AB's when his numbers were horrific. His statistical surge over his last 90 AB's is in no way inflated by a fluky HBP number. I'm not advocating for or against Mr. Nottingham. What I am saying is that context does matter but even then we really are just guessing. Sure, we can make pretty accurate judgements on players whose statistics fall to the extremes. The problem is the vast majority of players fall somewhere in the middle. How do we know that organizations haven't developed strong correlations that suggest a players exit velocity at AA is a better indicator of future success than a players K% at AA. The answer is that we don't and as Colbyjack suggested, they just may have data along that line. It's long been this way with fans in general going back to when WAR began. I haven't been reading this site very long but it's rare when someone goes beyond a couple metrics. It seems like people enjoy their 1-2 stats/metrics to paint a picture. If people want to get a sense of how a player is performing they have to get their hands dirty and dig into a lot of different stats/metrics. "Big picture" isn't 220BA and sub-700 OPS. That's the opposite actually. "Big picture" is taking all these little metrics/numbers and piecing them together to tell a story combined with actually watching them play and understanding how they're grasping knowledge and applying it (which most of us don't have that luxury of doing for minor leaguers). When digging into Nottingham his April numbers on the surface were junk. But he still cut his K rate by 10% and his approach changed as he had around a 8% increase in balls up the middle over last year, etc. Even though the numbers on the surface didn't show it, he was an improved hitter. A few times per week I'd go to gamecast and see what he did and every night there was 1 or 2 line outs or sharp hit balls for an out. Since May 1 he's slashing 278/356/790 (BA/OBP/OPS) with a 7.8% BB rate, 18.6% K rate, 132 wRC+. Having a more middle approach allows him to stay back longer and have greater success than previously at this level. His improvements on the defensive side have been tremendous. Analyzing catchers is different from all other positions because of the steep learning curve therefore age at level matters more. Typically, offense also takes a backseat when that happens and he's been very young for the AA level while also putting in an absurd amount of work on the defensive side (and it's showing). As this season progresses and next season moves along you'll start to see greater success on both sides of the ball. Nottingham is far from being a finished product but it's also shortsighted to give up on him as if he spends this year and the next 2yrs between AA/AAA allowing everything to come together then he'd still be a starting MLB catcher at age 25. Bandy/Susac are 27. Pina was 29 when the season started. Back to the thread, Faedo has great command of his pitches and can consistently throw his filthy slider for strikes. 92-96 fastball is good obviously. He's a safe pick. High floor, low ceiling. His nonverbal cues on the mound speak volumes to the type of competitor and pitcher he is. Adell is the name we hear over and over in mocks and if you think he can be a decent hitter then you take him as the rest of the tools are there. I like Pavin Smith. Compact swing with power, strong understanding of the zone, strong barrel to ball skills, lefty hitter, fields well. Has improved season over season. There's a handful of others I like as well. I won't question who these guys select because they understand a lot more about them than I do.

I can't speak to what's been rampant around here or not but there are a few guys in the Brewers system that absolutely have the potential to be very, very good MLB relievers. Kodi being one of them.

Arcia is 22yrs old and in his first full season. He's fully capable of putting up 280/335/750 (or better OBP/OPS) moving forward. He's currently 260/300/670, which is better than Andrelton Simmons age 23 and 24 seasons. Simmons is a better defender but Arcia holds his own in that department just fine. Arcia is very talented and it's blatantly obvious - just like it was with Santana. The issue is fans get too emotional and reactionary and stuck in the "what have you done for me lately" mold instead of taking a step back and letting these young players develop a bit (ie after 3wks there's a Brinson for Santana thread). Arcia has always been a middle/oppo hitter. As he develops and physically matures he's going to become a better pull hitter than he is right now. He'll be plenty capable of hitting 30 doubles, 5 triples, 15HR. Right now he's on pace for 21 doubles, 3 triples, 10HR. He'll be just fine moving forward but it might take through 2018 to get there, at which point he'll be 24 heading into that next season. He just needs to continue to improve as he has been since the start of this season. To the thread title - the overlooked stats are exit velocity, medium/hard contact rate, LD/GB/FB rate, plate discipline (in-zone/out-zone contact rate, overall contact rate), etc. These tell a much greater story than simply stating WAR.

Wood bats are legal in college but nobody is going to swing them. Cost is the major factor here. Between all levels of college baseball there's an absurd amount of teams and every player has their own bat. And they only need 1 bat. These guys miss the barrel a lot and would shatter plenty of wood bats. Metal bats retail for $350-400 typically with pro quality wood bats around $130-160 depending on the manufacturer and type - ash, birch or maple (ink dot test). There are composite wood bats - Baum Bat being the classic original full length and Demarini with a composite handle but wood barrel. They retail from $150-220. I could see these type of bats in college but not traditional wood. Pre-BBCOR the exit velocity off the barrel between wood and metal was greater but relatively negligible and the separation is even closer today. The overall numbers for exit velocity are skewed greatly toward metal being greater because the off-barrel mishits result in a greater exit velocity than wood due to the slightly larger sweet spot, trampoline effect and durability of metal. I remember bringing a game used, slightly cracked Reggie Sanders bat to college practice one day and a handful of us swung it. Everyone hit that bat harder and farther than our metal bats.

Your first statement - correct. I meant that in a context that none of them have been what I define as successful so far. Second statement - incorrect. I'm very well aware of age and league context, but being young for a league is absolutely no guarantee that the player is going to get better or handle the jump to AA. You don't need to look any further than Tyrone Taylor, who put up some pretty good numbers for a 19-year-old in low A and a 20-year-old in high-A (in a pitcher-friendly park) but has not translated that to success in two seasons in AA. My definition of "successful" and a "great season" is one in which there are zero qualifiers about performance. If you have to say, "but, his age..." or "but, (list some obscure stat)", then it isn't a great season. And that is very, very excusable thank you. (I also appreciate your politeness and grace in your post. Keep on!) But a player's age is very relevant to the conversation. Nottingham didn't have a good year at all last year, but him being 3yrs young for AA level combined with playing the position with the steepest learning curve means you have to look beyond just the numbers on the surface and dig into a lot of the analytics (I'm sure there's plenty out there that an org looks at that the public doesn't know about or pay attention too) and how that player improved as the season went along. A player can still perform much better than their numbers say and you could see that with Nottingham in April this year, as example. You're correct in that age is no guarantee for future success and improvement but that's where skill set and daily improvements made over the course of a season come into play more than stats on the surface for that specific player. As fans we don't always get to see that though. I never understood the hype about Taylor, or Coulter for that matter, when seeing them in person during spring training in 2016. I watched an hour long fielding/BP session that included Clark, Taylor, Coulter, Roache, Harrison in the OF and Diaz, Gatewood, Betancourt, Cooper, Lara in the IF. Taylor did nothing impressive - never understood why people thought highly of him. Never understood how he was a Top 100 nor how he'd be a future MLB player. Coulter literally had a BP session on an open field that rivaled that of a terrible HS player. I literally couldn't believe what I was seeing. This is why I don't care whatsoever about Coulter moving forward because there is no way a future MLB player can have a BP session like that at age 22, that's how bad it was. With everybody else, outside of Betancourt and Lara, you "see something there". You know there's MLB talent you just need them to put it together. Some do, some don't. I thought Gatewood was fine in the field but offensively I never liked him and never thought he'd become anything. His new swing mechanics and approach are a complete 180 and will put him back on track for success. Doing this 1.5yrs young for A+ is great but seeing if he can translate it to AA is even more telling of his future. But his new mechanics/approach combined with his power give him that chance for sure whereas Taylor didn't have that. Kodi just turned 21 and even though people will view him in a negative light because he's a 1st rd pick with high expectations, if he gets moved to the pen (as I've been saying he should for well over a year now) he could be great there. And even though he'd be a reliever and not a starter, as a 1st rd pick, that's fine in my view because he has the stuff to be dominant and we all know what dominant relievers bring at the deadline!! That said, Faedo looked really good today and I wouldn't be mad at all if the Brewers took him.

I think the downplay was in regard to him permanently being in the pen, which is what most people were assuming. No they were definitely downplaying it as anything related to the bullpen. They claimed it was to "limit his innings". I said it then it didn't make any sense. No, it was related to permanently being in the pen. Which is also what you stated at the time word leaked out last week or so. They even stated in the article they didn't do a good job communicating it as didn't expect that type of feedback to come from the fans, etc. They essentially said they were limiting his innings now working between normal starts to be up in Sept so he could pitch for the Brewers. If they were 100% moving him to the pen for his career then why in the world would they not just say that? Right, because it doesn't make sense. And you cite his "5.5 BB9" yet what was it the past 3yrs in A+, AA? 3. It's blown up in CS, which everyone knows is a terrible place for pitchers in general and worse for guys with his arsenal.

Going back to 2014 in A+ he had a BB9 of 3.3 then in 2015 it was 3 for the entire season (2.6 and 3.3 between Houston and us in AA) then last year he was 3 in AA then it blew up in AAA and continued again this year. I don't think his control is going to be an issue it seems like it's just in CS. Look at someone like Chase and his BB9 is 3.1 typically. Nobody complains about his lack of control. I haven't seen any articles about this but when you have a wipeout slider like he does your release point is different in CS and on the road (in a spot where a pitch would break how it's expected too). If you're constantly adjusting your release point between starts you're going to have inconsistencies when it comes to your changeup too. Woodruff has better control than Hader to begin with but his breaking ball doesn't move anywhere near as much as Hader so he can get away with it a bit more. I have no idea if Hader is staying in the rotation long-term or not for his career but he's going to be given every opportunity to stick there.

I think the downplay was in regard to him permanently being in the pen, which is what most people were assuming. That's not the case. I didn't think he'd be up in the pen until later in the year but this absolutely makes sense to get him out of CS (which he basically stated he hated after last year), gain MLB exp and be a huge contributor/boost to the pen the rest of the season while they drive toward that playoff spot, hopefully.

Not to be the bearer of bad news but you didn't call it. What you called was Hader being "permanently" moved to the pen. That's not the case. As I just stated on another thread Hader is up because the Brewers are in 1st place and he's the only one in AAA that can step right in and be a big time contributor in the pen and from the left side to boot. The back-end is overworked and this move is equivalent to Stearns acquiring someone without actually giving anything up. The bonuses are this gets him out of CS (where someone with a filthy slider like him is greatly affected) and he gains MLB experience. Just like with Sale and Johan. Hader will be right back in the rotation after this season. If a starter is traded by the deadline it would make sense for Woodruff to take that spot and keep Hader in the pen that way both are contributing. It makes sense for them to do it I just didn't think they were going too until later but clearly they're shooting for the playoff spot, as they should be.

Aguilar has made a couple poor defensive decisions recently but he's been just fine otherwise and has been plenty good offensively. Hader is up because he's the only one in AAA that can step right in and be a big time contributor in the pen and from the left side. The back-end is overworked and this move is equivalent to Stearns acquiring someone without actually giving anything up. The bonuses are this gets him out of CS (where someone with a filthy slider like him is greatly affected) and he gains MLB experience. He's not starting this year unless it's a spot start. Him in the pen this year makes absolute perfect sense (a la Sale, Johan) then he'll go right back to the rotation after the season. If a starter is traded then Woodruff most likely takes that spot while Hader remains in the pen. The entire rotation is pitching very well at the moment so they won't be affected. DFA Franklin I'm on board with and think that happens when Braun is back. If they're not going to keep Phillips as the 4th OF then I see Perez more in that role with Sogard handling the IF so no need for Franklin.

I say consult your big board and whoever is the top rated player left then that's who you select. I personally don't care who they select as their due diligence will have been done

Agreed. He and Barnes could be the 7th/8th inning men depending on the matchups and we may have something resembling a bullpen. Also if we trade for him right now, if we stink come July 31st we can trade him somewhere else. He's 36 and a FA after the season. What do you propose we give up to acquire him

In my circles this was a great trade the day it happened regardless of how Thornburg performed. Shaw's the same player he's been with Boston. 2015 (25yr old rookie) 65 games played on season - 270/327/813 (BA/OBP/OPS) Through first 54 games was 293/360/890 2016 (26yr old first full season and took job from Panda in spring) Through May - 292/358/866 Through June - 265/329/788 (huge slump month but not uncommon for first full season) Through July 7 - 274/336/801 (first week bounced back hitting 7-20, 4 doubles, HR) *Aaron Hill acquired on July 7 and started the next night - it went downhill from there 2017 (27yr old entering prime) present day - 298/352/886 Defensively he's been widely regarded as a very solid 3b but offensively I'm not sure why people are quite surprised by his production given he's right in line with what he's done previously. He's the same player. Especially when he leaves Fenway and comes to a slightly more hitter friendly park in general but a much more hitter friendly park for lefty power hitters. Post-Hill acquisition I pay no attention to given his stated reasons for his collapse, which don't speak to his skill set/ability. It speaks to him being mentally drained, uncertain of his standing in the org and ultimately needing a change of scenery due to the lack of belief and faith in him from Boston. After already using Jeffress (plus Lucroy) and Smith to land Top 60 overall prospects in Brinson, Ortiz, Bickford he correctly used his last big pen piece in Thornburg to land his long-term starting 3b with 5yrs of cheap control while also adding a great middle IF prospect in Dubon (who possesses excellent bat to ball skills, which this team sorely lacks, speed on the bases and will stick at either SS or 2b), Pennington (big arm who would have been drafted in the Top 10 rounds if not for TJ) and now Coca (has the feel of a younger, thinner Dubon). If he brought back a Top 100 instead of Shaw then our 3b option would be Villar (with Scooter at 2b) or Perez and neither are viable full time options there. There were no great 3b options on the FA market as well. Replacing the Top 100 with Shaw was very calculated and very smart.

As silly as it may seem, that's what they are going to do. Anything Stearns or the organization says can be taken with a grain of salt. Most of the starters in the Brewers organization are going to end up as relievers. I just wonder how many innings Hader will get in the Brewers bullpen this year. That's not what they are going to do. Hader is being developed as a starter and will continue to do so. The article within the past week cleared up this matter stating they're limiting his innings (pinch count also being a factor) to make sure he's able to help the Brewers in Sept. His past 2 starts he threw 2 innings in each start and I believe they stated his next start (tonight) will see him throw a normal 90+ pitch workload so we'll see if that's the case. They'll continue to cycle in the couple inning starts to help limit that workload for Sept. If he was going to be moved permanently to the pen then he wouldn't be taking his start every 5th game as his schedule would have been altered. Whether he is in the rotation or pen come Sept is irrelevant to his future as he's going to be starting next year. What exactly has Stearns and the org said over the past almost 2yrs that would lead you to take what they say with a grain of salt? I feel like they're pretty straight forward communicators. Also, every MLB's org sees most of their starters end up as relievers at the MLB level if they even get to that level. There's only 150 rotation spots in MLB and 600 minor league rotation spots between A-AAA. But there's actually more than 600 minor league rotation arms as guys split time, etc like Diplan/Peralta always did. That basically amounts to below 25% of rotations arms in the system that make it to the MLB level in the rotation - or what amounts to 5 pitchers. Davies should count as he was a AAA prospect when we acquired him, having spent zero time in MLB and he started 6 AAA games for us before spending the final month in MLB. Then started back at AAA for a couple starts before up full time. He technically came from our system so then we'd need 4 of Hader, Ortiz, Woodruff, Bickford, Burnes, Ponce, Peralta, Diplan, Supak, D.Williams. 2 of them will be in the MLB rotation come next April (Hader/Woodruff) and Ortiz will absolutely be right behind them as he's a great talent. So I'd say the Brewers are well on track. We basically have 2 entire levels between A-AAA covered with future "potential" #2-4 rotation arms who will all be Top 20 in org come mid-season updates (not Williams since injured). That doesn't include the draft next week or future acquisitions either. I think Lopez, T.Williams, Kirby, Kodi, Pennington, Webb should be pen arms joining Wang, Derby making the move there full time.

Broxton plays great D and has speed. Late inning replacement could be his specialty. He'll be cheap for a few years yet. He should be in the mix for playing time over the next few years. However, if Brinson or Phillips outplays him, they should start or play more. Well, there is the issue. IF he was playing great D, I wouldnt mind his streaks. I am a big fan of great defensive players and I would love to have a guy who is a GG caliber CF and Id gladly put up with his streaky hitting. However, in 2017, he has been anything but great or even good defensively. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=9253&position=OF The issue I have with Fangraphs and their defensive metrics is they're done so with everyone playing straight up and that's rarely the case. While infielders tend to shift much more heavily than outfielders it still will affect the results. Broxton hasn't played CF as well this year compared to last but he's absolutely still been really solid. Overall he's been average thus far this year but there's clearly room for him to improve and get more consistent. His skill set shouldn't be abandoned because the MLB team is playing better than people thought (though I'm not shocked as they're a 500 team without question) combined with Brinson performing to the expected level in AAA with everyone knowing he's knocking on the door. The Brewers are in a good position right now and need to stay the course.

Problem with that is Broxton is 27 already. Cameron was 6th in ROY voting at age 24 and was fully established by age 26. They can't keep waiting on him with a player of Brinson's ability waiting in the wings. Respectfully disagree. The Brewers absolutely can wait on Brinson's ability. He, like Phillips, just turned 23 last month and has played what amounts to half a season in AAA for his career. I love Brinson as a prospect and think he'll be a very good MLB player but Broxton has value and is a fine defender so there's no reason to rush Brinson as he still has things to work on. Broxton is streaky offensively and once he gets back on that hot streak is numbers will shoot back up because when he's hot he's driving the balls in the gaps and over the wall. If Broxton is struggling offensively come the deadline then I can see Brinson up at that point for the final 2 months with Broxton as the 4th OF backing up all 3 spots. Otherwise I can't see Brinson coming up until Sept, along with Phillips.

The only pen moves I can see Stearns making at the deadline are if he's acquiring a controllable arm with upside who hasn't performed to his ability for something we can afford to give up without disrupting the strategy already in place or if another team DFAs a guy that's an upgrade over Scahill/Drake. 5 members of the pen are solid talents (Peralta a wild card at this point) and will improve, just like the rotation has improved. They have track records of success recently and that shouldn't get thrown out the window. Hader and Woodruff won't be up unless it's Sept or if a rotation arm is traded at the deadline and we're still in playoff contention. They both need to continue to develop and work on things.

MLB pen arms throw 3x in 4 game spans. No, it's not wrong. When that happens they'll get 2 or 3 nights off depending who they are. Arm issues don't arise as a result of this unless it happens over a very extended part of a season. Espino missing his start didn't help but that's a negative of being the AAA team. When the MLB team needs a rotation arm you're out of luck and you make it work. There might not always be a AA arm that can come up to start at that point in time because then the AA team runs into the same issue of using the pen guys and it becomes a domino effect. I'm sure Stearns and the coaching staffs know much more about how to handle the roster situation in times like these

I guess I see things from a different perspective. That being all these guys are human and will have bad outings, especially since none of them are elite or expected to be elite (Chapman's and Miller's of the world). Therefore everyone should be judged not only on their entire body of work statistically, given a few bad outings can destroy one's overall numbers, combined with their track record, watching them live, the stuff they possess and their makeup. Knebel has been excellent and Barnes has been very solid as well. Easily the two best arms in pen. And far too many people wanted Barnes to start in AAA due to his spring but given his stuff/makeup you don't put that in AAA because of some rough spring outings. Which is exactly why you don't just cut bait with Feliz, Torres, Hughes. Feliz has 27 outings on the season throwing 26 innings. He's given up multiple earned runs in 3 outings posting 2.1ip, 7h, 8er, 2bb, 2k, 30.90 ERA, 3.86 WHIP. The other 24 outings (91% of innings pitched) he's posted 23.2ip, 13h, 7er, 11bb, 18k, 2.66 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 4.94 H9, 4.18 BB9, 6.84 K9. He's given up all 7er in 7 different outings. He's been more inconsistent than the numbers suggest in the 91% of his innings this year but you also can't argue with that production. His BB rate is far too high and he's given up a lot of HR this year too, much higher than his norm, so history says it'll come back down. Plus he almost always starts innings too so it's not as if he's letting inherited runners score. Torres, like Feliz, has given up multiple earned runs in 3 outings posting 3ip, 10h, 9er, 3bb, 3k, 27.00 ERA, 4.33 WHIP. The other 28 outings (91% of innings pitched) he's posted 29ip, 29h, 6er, 10bb, 22k, 1.86 ERA, 1.34 WHIP. Again, same with Feliz, he's been more inconsistent than these numbers suggest but he's also been pretty effective the vast majority of the time. Hughes, again, has had 3 outings giving up multiple earned runs posting 2.1ip, 10h, 8er, 2bb, 2k and his other 21 outings (90% of innings pitched) he's posted 20.1ip, 15h, 3er, 8bb, 13k, 1.33 ERA, 1.13 WHIP. He falls in the same boat as Torres since they tend to enter games with runners on base. I'm not going to dig up all those different situations but if they're entering with a runner on 3b and less than 2 outs it's a coin flip if that person scores and that goes for most teams. They're entering games in tough situations. I think these 5 guys absolutely need to be in the pen. These guys have shown the stuff to be effective and while they all walk far too many batters they've also been pretty effective the vast majority of the time. The only person in the minors who can come up and be better than these 5 is Hader, but he's a starter (he'll be up in the pen in Sept anyway). Guys like Scahill and Drake can be swapped in and out at any time. I'd have no issue with Cravy (who I don't care for), Wang or Suter being up replacing either of them. However, Wang is spending his first year in the pen right now so I understand if they don't think he's ready to come up. Suter and Cravy obviously already have time in MLB and can seamlessly transition. Blazek has been starting recently so no idea what they're doing with him unless they're just stretching him out to eventually replace someone in the pen as the multi-inning guy. Peralta I'm intrigued by in the pen but want to see him used in the 6th/7th inning in one inning stints unless there's an extra inning game then he can grab you 3 innings potentially. Jungmann needs a change of scenery. Lopez I'd like to see in a pen role but he's been getting hit in AA more recently. Archer isn't an option either. He's always been 1-2yrs old for level and hasn't dominated. Great at pounding the zone and making batters earn it but overall his skill set doesn't bode well moving forward at the MLB level. The Brewers just don't have legitimate pen options in AAA other than Cravy, Wang, Blazek, Suter and none of them are guys you're super excited about. I think Wang can have a solid career in the pen but think he needs to spend the entire year there. Cravy will be just ok but most likely better than Scahill/Drake. Suter is a coin flip and Blazek has had some success already. Espino isn't a pen arm. He's, at best, what he is right now. AAA rotation arm who can spot start 2-3x annually if needed where you pray for a decent outing. I had 2 MLB scouts sit behind me during a spring game this past March and they didn't know who Espino was so they brought out the guns and opened their notebooks. 4 pitches in they put the guns and notebooks away. People need to take the overall Loss number for the pen as a grain of salt. If the game is tied or we're up by 1 with 4 innings of pen work ahead chances are strong to quite strong that the pen gets the L if the Brewers don't win not to mention only the Reds have thrown more innings out of the pen in MLB than the Brewers. More opportunities to do anything good or bad will yield those results. The NL average is 201ip in the pen this year and the Brewers are at 223. The NL avg ERA is 4.04 and the Brewers is 4.16 (we were an even 4.00 prior to yesterdays game). I don't think the pen is as bad as everyone is making it seem.

I'll make my first post a lengthy one. With the system being so deep it's difficult to single out only a handful of prospects but the guys I've been paying attention to the most have been Phillips, Ortiz, Nottingham, Burnes, T. Williams, Kodi, Peralta. As mentioned by others, Nottingham is getting overlooked and deemed to be having another down year in AA when he's one of the most improved players thus far in terms of where he's come from. He's always been knocked pretty hard defensively but if you happened to watch him play a few games in the AZFL this past year you'd clearly see an athletic kid who has what it takes to stick at that position. Just needed to work more on his footwork and positioning his body properly for blocking but his receiving and throwing skills are there. Last year he had 15 errors, 21 PB, 29.3% CS rate. This year he's on pace for under 6 errors and PB each while throwing out 44.1% of runners (leading the league). Offensively he was a bit unlucky in April but since May 1 he's slashing 280/366/805, 10 doubles, HR, 10rbi, 8bb, 18k (8.5% bb rate, 19.1% k rate) posting a 136 wRC+. On the season he's increased his BB rate and dropped his K rate by almost 11%. He's still 2yrs young for level at AA , which is important to note given the catching position has the steepest learning curve, and has put so much effort in on the defensive side that now it's time for his bat to come back around. And it will. He's still very much a legitimate Top 15 org prospect moving forward and will get back into the Top 10 at some point. A few others have mentioned Ortiz not getting much love either and color me shocked as well. This is a kid who will be better than Woodruff. He's had a few bumpy starts this year, which is expected especially given being 3yrs young for level, but his other 8 have been incredible. 41ip, 20h, 5er, 16bb, 36k, 1.08 ERA, 0.878 WHIP, 4.39 H9, 3.51 BB9, 7.9 K9. He's 21. Woodruff was 23 last year at that same level. Not sure if Ortiz is working on developing certain pitches but his BB rate is much higher than it typically is but it's something I'm not worried about. Phillips AA last year wasn't anywhere near as bad as the numbers suggest on the surface and he's showing that this year. He made mechanical adjustments since coming over to develop more power and it's taken some time for this to happen but now he's seeing the fruits of his labor. Burnes had 2nd round potential (maybe 1st according to some) and was a steal in the 4th at the time. He's showing his skill set and bulldog mentality/approach. He'll be fun to watch moving forward and as an advanced college arm I expect Stearns having him start in AAA next year. T. Williams I think everyone's been waiting to see what he does given his injuries. He's had a pitch count thus far and hasn't pitched in 2wks so not sure what the issue is. Given his past I don't understand why he's starting to begin with. Stick him in a traditional pen role and he can get 3 one inning appearances per week. If they did this he'd be in AAA next month and up in Sept with a legitimate shot at a pen role next spring. It's wishful thinking treating him like a future starter. He turns 26 next month. I also put Kirby in this same boat when he's back. Stick him in the pen and move him multiple levels annually as they both have dominant stuff and could be tremendous assets in the pen. A dominant pen is extremely critical for the playoffs. Kodi I've long thought to be a pen arm and this year he's splitting his time between starting and out of the pen while actually throwing more innings out of the pen thus far. Overall he's improved across the board and is attacking the zone more, which is good to see. His pen numbers are great but needs to work on getting his BB rate down in that role. Starting next year I'm hoping they bump him to AA and switch him full time to the pen like they did Derby this year. He can have a bright future there. It's great to see Derby excelling in that role as well. Peralta still gets buzz but seemed last year to be a bit overshadowed by Diplan but this year he's separating himself from the pack. For the most part his numbers across the board are similar to his time in A last year so he's clearly made some adjustments and grown from his experience in A+ last year. I think he's a better prospect than Ponce. I hope Lara excels because he's in our system but I've seen him in spring back-to-back years now and other than his physical stature he's not impressive whatsoever at this point in time (still young) and he shouldn't have been anywhere near the Top 25 let alone in the Top 10 last year, especially given his age/level/production at that point in time.