Humans Need Water

Maybe that's where my thought process differs from others. I don't look at packages and see a centerpiece + others. I look at the value of the entire return as a whole. I also don't create opinions based on WAR and I'd guess neither do GMs. Logan Forsythe for Jose de Leon is the only other trade that comes to mind for a potential comparable but he has outproduced Whit offensively the 2yrs prior to his trade (and showed in career previously he has that potential) and has played *every* position on the field except catcher. So, at the time of that trade, Logan was better offensively, played every position in the field making him extremely valuable on the defensive side and was still owed 2/16M. Now adjust accordingly with Whit's 4/? (cheap) playing 2b/corner OF spots (not SS/CF if needed). There was an article written in LA after the trade on what the Dodgers thought-process was and it said de Leon was traded because the Dodgers knew he was overrated and thought of him as the 4th best pitching prospect in the org (Urias, Alvarez 92 and Buehler unranked) and, most importantly, *not* a TOR prospect (like his ranking indicated) even though he was the 2nd highest rated in org and Top 30 overall by publications. It's why, instead of having him up during a playoff run after producing very good AAA numbers, they brought up Brock Stewart who wasn't even in their org Top 30 heading into the season. He didn't fair too well so they finally brought up de Leon for 4 starts and that didn't go well either. That would be like us calling up Derby instead of Peralta (and Woodruff/Burnes for that matter). I compared the Gordon trade to what we'd be giving up if matching that then talked about how I could see Dubon going there (ie Yelich trade logic). I never gave an actual trade proposal. And since people love WAR - maybe go check out the list of 2b who are on pace for a 3 WAR (Whit on pace for same as last season maybe slightly above) and re-evaluate targeting Whit in general let alone giving up 2 org Top 10s + another Top 15. Villar is on pace for 2 WAR for heaven's sake and he's been nothing but *fine*. Miller's outproducing Whit offensively this year and he could easily be the 2b down the stretch (he's also posted the same OPS+ in 2016 that Whit is posting right now and tied him another year). Miller also plays SS, unlike Whit.

Villar's 2016 across the board was better than Whit's 2017 and he did it at SS while being 3yrs younger. WAR has Villar the same for them those years yet on paper - across the board - Villar was better and did it from SS. It's not even a legitimate comparable. Villar 2016 and Merrifield's 2017 were very comparable. FWAR was the same, bWAR had Merrifield as easily the more valuable player. Basically identical power and slugging. Both can take a base, Villar took more and got caught more. Villar's biggest offensive advantage over Merrifield was OBP -- .369 to .324, which isn't a small number, but this advantage was totally negated by Villar's defensive deficiencies. I don't understand how you can twice cite Villar doing it from SS as a good thing when his defense at SS was atrocious. Yes, a bat at SS is more valuable than a bat at 2nd, but not when that bat at SS is a defensive hack. If he was in any way serviceable at SS, he'd probably be playing there every day right now. I have several issues with this. 1) defensive metrics are unreliable 2) WAR is unreliable and no GM uses it in any decision making process because there's a lot of other metrics combined that paint a much better picture The SS position is the most difficult to play on the field and it's the most valuable. His WAR was very similar to Whit because of that negative defensive scoring (was a 5 DRS and -12 UZR so which is correct....Segura is a starting SS still and he's never had above a 2-3 DRS and has had a negative UZR 5yrs). Shift Villar over to 2b that year instead and what would his WAR be given they're both slightly above average defensive 2b or what if Whit was shifted over to SS - how much would his WAR have taken a hit? Villar on pace for 2 WAR this year and his offense isn't in the same stratosphere as 2yrs ago. Hence my point. They're not comparable - adjust the defensive scoring over to 2b, OBP by 45pts, OPS by 42pts, twice as many SB and 3yrs younger. Villar was also a better SS than the metrics say and what fans say (ie unbelievably brutal). The *only* reason he was moved to 2b was because Arcia was up and is a GG caliber defender there, no different than Albies going to 2b because of Dansby. The better defender stays at SS.

Not comparable? I literally laid out exactly how they're comparable and what the differences are. They're the same age. Had the same number of years of control (4 Gordon, 4.33 Whit). Play the same position. Whit has more gap/HR power whereas Gordon stole twice as many bases, was a 2x AS also winning a SS and GG (I left out batting title). I gave the system comparables to the Gordon trade and said adjust accordingly due to the contract and Gordon being the more accomplished player at the time of the trade. The 3yrs prior to the trade Gordon slashed 309/340/724 while Whit over his brief career thus far has slashed 287/333/763 stealing half as many bases playing worse defense. His value over the Gordon trade is his cheap control. But according to you, all that gets swept under the rug because Gordon was more expensive and had an OPS above 750 once in his career. (because OPS is the final barometer for a Gordon type player who's actually built to get on base and disrupt vs hit gaps/HR). Who's your comparable and why? "Dubon has the potential to post 285/335/720 while stealing 30+ bases (from the SS position, not 2b) so why would we give up a package of extreme value for Whit?" - Me (above). I believe he can post those numbers at some point within the first 3yrs of his career and if he does that it means he's done so with 3-4yrs of cheap control still. Hence my question of why would we trade one of Peralta/Burnes *or* Woodruff/Phillips + others for Whit. I also mentioned *why* Dubon leading a package there makes sense (ie Yelich trade) as Merrifield is a known whereas Dubon might take 1-2yrs to get there. Also, you're going to chalk it up to me really hating Merrifield for some reason when I specifically stated "there's a lot to like about Whit"? You're hearing what you want to hear because you're enamored with him based on WAR and that's fine, because like I said, he's a fine player with a lot to like. But find us a comparable trade that makes sense for a package that's better than Woodruff/Phillips *or* leading with one of Peralta/Burnes. Finally, regarding that other poster calling you out. I don't get that - I saw nothing wrong with what or how you posted your opinion. There was nothing escalated in any way

In 2017 Whit was 3.8 bWAR and 2.9 fWAR while Gordon was 3.1 bWAR and 3.4 fWAR. And, as I mentioned, Gordon has a better track record (2x AS, SS, GG). This season Whit is no doubt the better player. You don't think we should be having comparables at the time trades occur (post 2017 Gordon)? That's the only way to do. What they do post trade is irrelevant - when people compare the Sale trade to a potential deGrom trade are they citing what Sale did pre-trade or post-trade??? Villar's 2016 across the board was better than Whit's 2017 and he did it at SS while being 3yrs younger. WAR has Villar the same for them those years yet on paper - across the board - Villar was better and did it from SS. It's not even a legitimate comparable. For all we know Stearns has explored Arcia in trades or Dubon for that matter. I was the one who said Arcia should be in a package because he has value. But if Arcia gets back to what he did last year he's absolutely more valuable than Dubon (if Dubon hypothetically reaches those numbers). And If Dubon reaches those numbers will it happen in 2019 or 2021? I just said I think he's capable of it. I didn't say he was doing it from day 1. And it I recall correctly, Dubon was somewhere around a Top 120, which helps. He was going to be our starting SS the day after he was injured...maybe he would have done well, maybe he would have struggled. But he has a high floor because he does everything well he just doesn't do anything super well.

Your house can be valued at 150K (based on recent comparables/market) but if you're asking 180K nobody will give that to you unless they're beyond desperate to improve their situation by massively overpaying. Which is why, if the teams stick to their *wants*, these players won't be traded. And there's no way the Brewers should be involved in Realmuto, deGrom or Thor

If nothing changes with Dozier you doubt that Hiura could slash 220/308/702? You're right, it does start his clock but if he contributes like people think he can and helps us win the division will it be worth it then? Potentially. Phillips is significantly more valuable than Gatewood. It's still a coin flip if Gatewood makes MLB whereas Phillips is ready for a starting opportunity somewhere else.

That, and this guy Brad Miller seems to be OK. When Saladino comes back he will start at SS and Miller will take over 2B. No need to give away assets for something you already have. I'd rather invest those assets in other areas (SS, C, SP). I agree with this first part. Miller buys the team time at SS until Saladino is back up while Arcia figures it out in AAA. Saladino will still need to be a solid play at SS and hopefully he is then Miller to 2b. Once (assuming) Arcia does that he's back up at SS and Miller/Saladino at 2b with Saladino backing up SS as well.

I'd venture a guess in saying that Sterans isn't giving up Woodruff/Phillips leading a package for Merrifield because he believes that's a massive overpay....because it is. If Whit is traded this month he and Dee Gordon would have been the same age at the time of their trades - Dee had 4/52 remaining and was a relatively recent 2x AS, SS, GG at 2b and he brought back *zero* Top 100 players let alone a Top 60 MLB ready rotation arm in Burnes or Peralta or a package that starts with *two* Top 100 MLB ready prospects in Woodruff/Phillips. The top piece in that Gordon trade was a really good young pitcher that was in A+ the majority of that year. The 2nd/3rd pieces of that trade are dead ringers for Carmona and a Ponce type. The equivalent to the Gordon trade is Zack Brown, Carmona, Ponce so adjust accordingly based on that given no two players are the same (ie Gordon is more accomplished whereas Whit has an extra 2 months control and significantly cheaper). In saying that, I see Stearns giving up 6yrs of Dubon for 4yrs of Merrifield (known commodity). Merrifield starts at 2b until Hiura is up then becomes the backup 2b/corner OF....4yrs+ of cheap control for that type of player is excellent value, gives us an upgrade at 2b immediately and boosts the heck out of our bench once Hiura takes over. Stearns wants a deep team due to late game matchups, injuries, etc. We still have Miller another year too so Miller/Merrifield on bench spelling Arcia/Hiura would be nasty good for 2019 while also being our starting middle IF down the stretch this year. Dubon's injured but it's not career threatening by any means and he's MLB ready so KC could have their middle IF set for the next 6yrs between Lopez/Dubon. If there's no package and it's one for one it'll be a better prospect on our end probably maxing out at Phillips but it most certainly won't be Peralta or Burnes. Also, Woodruff and Phillips aren't spare parts. They're MLB ready Top 100 (pre-2018) starting talents with 5-6yrs control. Woodruff is pitching very well in AAA and posted a 0.5 WAR in 8 starts last year (5 really good ones) and this year he's had 1 bad start in CO ruining his overall line (ERA would be 2.66 otherwise) plus he's been shuffled back and forth between needing an arm in the pen for multiple innings or spot starting. Even though Phillips numbers are down he was shuffled back and forth earlier this year getting inconsistent PT sitting on our bench basically for 5-10 days at a clip (also a 1.4 WAR player in 100 games in MLB last year). One's value doesn't drop hard due to 2-3 months of slightly below average production offensively while still very good defensively with a hose. Also, if you think Whit is around a 4 WAR player moving forward then Hiura will be at least a 6 WAR player because he'll murder Whit offensively. Whit will never touch 19HR again and most likely won't exceed 10 moving forward and as he ages his SB total will drop. There's a lot to like about Whit but there's a slim chance he produces similar to what he's doing last/this year over the final 2yrs of the deal - in the meantime Hiura would still have 4yrs of control remaining at that point in time. Dubon has the potential to post 285/335/720 while stealing 30+ bases (from the SS position, not 2b) so why would we give up a package of extreme value for Whit? He's being overvalued hard core in this thread.

So because Loasiga has had some success through 4 starts at the MLB level thus far he's similar to Peralta? Loasiga turned 23 in the offseason and started the year in A+ (at age level) and just got bumped up to AA recently getting rocked there in 6 starts before being called up. He no doubt is talented and has potential. But in the meantime, Peralta started the season at age 21 and was destroying AAA and has been even better than Loasiga at the MLB level through 5 starts (in which he turned 22). Peralta is a Top 50 easily. If he's similar to anyone it's Sheffield (Top 40-45ish).

Jeffress was absolutely not a "little more than a throw-in". The relievers at the deadline had insane value. Smith brought back Bickford (Top 60) and Susac (AAA/MLB) and he had the same cheap control with an extra year (33 innings) of good experience but Jeffress had 27 saves the year traded. Both similar type production. The only way Miami is getting (3) Top 100 is some team is beyond desperate and massively overpays. And I noted Realmuto's extra year of experience. I also noted Lucroy had a much better track record as 4 of his previous 5yrs were better than anything Realmuto's done up to this point. How is that negated?

1.33yrs of Lucroy (top 5 mlb catcher with extensive track record and cheap) + 3yrs of Jeffress (2yrs of great performance including closer experience and cheap) = Top 20, Top 65, Cordell Yet somehow 2.33yrs of Realmuto by himself (first legitimate year being top 5 catcher) = Top 20, Top 50, Top 80? LOL. No. And the Yankees/deGrom proposal was significantly worse than the Brewers proposal for Realmuto. (4) Top 100, including Frazier, + 1.33yrs of Gray for 2.33yrs of deGrom? My mind is blown. Sale, with more control and significantly better accomplishments, brought back Top 1, Top 30, Basabe, scrub. These publications are mind blowing and distorting reality. Reality is comparing to recent trades and adjusting accordingly given no two players/situations are exactly the same.

Stroman is the target and Burnes/Phillips fits that (depending on the 3rd piece might even be able to do Woodruff/Phillips)

Nottingham's OBP is 2pts higher at CS than the road and his OPS is 145pts higher (he's still OPSing 834 on the road). Bethancourt's OBP is 50pts higher at CS and OPS is 220pts. Nottingham is the better bat and he's doing this in his first year in AAA whereas Bethancourt has been between AAA/MLB since 2014. Defensively, Bethancourt is better with a stronger arm but he's also 4yrs older so he's much more experienced on this side of the ball. In saying that, Nottingham is going to be an average catcher with a strong arm with nothing to worry about anymore with him on that side. The Brewers don't need a worse Maldy behind the plate right now (Bethancourt) - they need Pina to get back on track and if he doesn't this month then I'd bank on it either being Nottingham back up or Stearns acquiring someone.

Hard pass. Hiura can be better than Dozier the rest of this year and he costs nothing

As someone mentioned earlier, yes, he was a Top 100 (66 on BP list) when we acquired him. People somehow forget that when he arrived the Brewers hit the pause button on his bat to focus on his defense, which is why his offensive production that first year in AA was garbage (was also 3yrs young for level). Last year they got back to what seems equal split on both offense and defense and while the offensive numbers aren't sexy, and he was definitely unlucky, his overall production across the board improved and his wrc+ was 102. Defensively he made significant strides last year. All of this is why he's having success in AAA - it's all coming together after busting his butt the past 2yrs to get to this point. Because that's the entire point of the minor leagues - development. I've always been a staunch defender of his on here and I've always seen a solid starting MLB catcher. I don't care if they bring him up this year or next I just want him to be ready when they do.

If the Mets believe in Arcia like they believe in Rosario then it absolutely could be worth it for them to have Arcia headline the trade, especially if they're nervous about Thor's health moving forward. Arcia/Rosario/Conforto up the middle for 4yrs sounds like it could be pretty good and they don't have a SS/2b in the pipeline moving forward (Cecchini will end up a utility). They're not going to replace Thor's performance so it's about capitalizing on strong talent at several positions to make the team as a whole better. I don't think the Brewers want to part with Arcia but I can see them doing so because someone like Dubon is ready and he has the potential to be good too. Replacing him with Arcia then adding Hiura at 2b and Thor to the rotation improved the team overall and that's the end game.

There is no way in hell Arcia headlines a deal for Syndergard. Dubon is more valuable at this point, and do you think the Mets would value HIM as a centerpiece? Use your head. ok Dad, I'll use my head next time. Andrelton Simmons, coming off THREE straight not good offensive seasons (cumulative slash line of 252/301/658) with 5/53 remaining on his contract, brought back the #19 overall prospect (mlb.com) in Sean Newcomb, who made his MLB debut less than 1.5yrs later. Arcia is posting horrific numbers at the plate this year and even with that included his career totals are 246/293/654. Simmons just completed his age 25 season when traded. Arcia is 23, controlled for 4yrs (insanely cheap compared to Simmons contract), is a stud defensively (not Simmons level as nobody is) and, like Simmons his rookie year, has showed what he's capable of offensively already. Arcia was a Top 10 overall prospect for a reason. The ability is there and when he gets back on track offensively he's a borderline AS caliber player at his position (like last year - at age 22). Sweeping everything under the rug except his current offensive output to determine his value is absurd. So, like I said, I'm calling Arcia in a package to the Mets if a trade happens. I can't tell you who else would potentially be involved (definitely not Hiura) as I don't know what Arcia's exact value is but he absolutely has plenty of value. I have a gut feeling that rumors will fly around hard core with us strongly being connected to deGrom and Thor while Stearns is working even harder dealing for Stroman. I don't think the Mets are the ultimate play. We certainly don't need to use Hiura to land Stroman either.

Since your own definition wasn't articulated I took it literally because there's no other way to take it. Anyway, moving on. Back to the rumor we're targeting Thor. If a deal happens I'll take the stance that nobody else has. I'm calling Hiura not being involved, rather Arcia the one heading to the Mets in a package. Even though he's lost at the plate right now he still has 4yrs+ cheap control, age on his side, showed what he's capable of offensively over the final 4 months last year and has taken a sizable step forward defensively this year (he's great there). He still has plenty of value. Mets could be attracted to having Arcia/Rosario up the middle the next 4yrs, especially if they believe their bats will come around like the Angels did with Simmons (his 2013-2015 slash line is almost identical to Arcia's career stats thus far with Arcia having half the PAs). Arcia is absolutely better defensively at SS than Rosario so he can pull an Albies and shift to 2b since Cabrera is a FA after this year (they can move him at the deadline anyway). On our end we then have 6yrs of Dubon as he's MLB ready and would still have Miller for another year to help ease Dubon's transition (plus Perez). OR we talk to the Jays about Stroman!

He is a prospect and like all prospects are massive risks to never get to their ceiling. Even can’t miss guys constantly don’t become near what scouts thought. Sometimes it takes years to finally break out. What if it takes two years before he finally becomes a difference maker? At which point our core just falls apart? Is he all that valuable anymore. Huge risk, any prospect is. I get that players who haven't performed at the highest level yet have risk associated with them but saying *all* prospects are *huge* risks is false and misleading. As a player rises through the minors while continuing to perform their risk decreases - there are a lot of different variables that play into this and not just performance. But there are certainly players you watch and they have that aura about them. You know they're going to succeed. Hiura is one of those guys. His risk is limited. Did the Brewers say that Arcia and Brinson's bats were MLB ready or was it going to potentially take a bit? Compare that to Hiura, who only played A ball for 1-2 months last year, who the team said his bat was almost MLB ready this past spring. The guy hit 419 in 31 spring AB (19 games) sitting on the bench for 6-8 innings chewing gum before picking up his bat and raking vs AA, AAA, MLB guys. A good amount of Top 20 overall prospects are rated that high due to their defense/arm/speed/athleticism over their bat. They're average to above average potential hitters and if they reach that, combined with their plus tools, it makes them an AS caliber player but if they don't then they're an average starter. The difference with Hiura is that his bat is his calling card and not his defense. The bat always plays. Always. It helps that he was a very accomplished, polished college hitter so he's already advanced compared to others. And I'm not talking Corey Ray college advanced bat because Hiura's college numbers destroyed Ray's.

I'm curious where this *massive* risk comes from. His hit tool is rated higher than any prospect going back to the 2014 Top 100 list except for like 3 players. Everything about him screams 300+ hitter at the MLB level. His throwing program/arm have seen no setbacks and he's been playing the field every day for like 6-7wks now. It's easy to argue there's more risk adding Thor than there is keeping Hiura. Dude's thrown 95 innings since 2016 without having any elbow/shoulder injuries. I'm on board with gambling on talent like his but you don't do it using minimal risk guys like Hiura.

Burnes is ranked 58/74/80, Phillips 80/81 and Peralta, while unranked heading into 2018, has already surpassed both and is a Top 50 prospect regardless if it's in print yet or not. So that would make (3) Top 100 and *all* are MLB ready, thus limiting risk compared to low level players, with 6yrs cheap control. Not every GM is the same - some might prefer a package of MLB ready players such as (2) legit mid-rotation starters, (1) starting CF/RF with cannon and 20/20 potential, (1) pen arm VS (1) elite prospect, (1) TOR potential arm if he can hit the strike zone enough, (1) 4th OF, (1) flyer pen arm who won't amount to anything (the first was Burnes/Peralta/Phillips/Houser and the second was the Sale trade). I didn't realize we got Brinson, Ortiz, Cordell solely for Lucroy. It's almost as if there was a successful reliever (setup/closer) with 3yrs cheap control included in that package. At the time of the trade, Sale was turning 28 with 3/38 left on contract. He was coming off 5 straight AS, 4 straight Top 5 CY voting, 3 of previous 4yrs at 208+IP and all of that facing the DH in the AL and he's a LHP to boot. Present day, DeGrom has less control with 2+/25M?, is 1yr older (happy 30th today) than Sale while winning ROY, 1 AS, 0 Top 5 CY voting, 192+IP once. Thor is much younger but didn't win ROY, 1 AS, 0 Top 5 CY and has thrown over 151 innings once. DeGrom and Thor are no doubt super talented and DeGrom is having an outstanding year that he'll never repeat but their body of work isn't close to Sale therefore the return shouldn't FAR exceed the Sale trade (Hiura/Burnes/Peralta/Ray) rather, at most, should match it. The Sale equivalent is Hiura, Peralta, Grisham, Houser. Grisham compares well to Basabe. Houser murders the Sale 4th piece and is MLB ready right now and there's a ton of guys we could swap Houser out for. The MLB.com article put Gatewood at the same value as Peralta and Ray - simply astounding - that's how you know that article proposal is garbage. Ray isn't even at the same value as Peralta right now either. No doubt people will think what I just listed above is absurd so I'll suggest those people go do a side by side statistical comparison of Moncada/Hiura, Kopech/Peralta, Basabe/Grisham, Diaz/pick a guy with a pulse because Diaz sucks. *Production* trumps ceilings/stuff (ie Kopech has better "stuff" therefore a higher ceiling than Peralta but Peralta has extension that makes his fastball play up several MPH combined with having multiple good secondary offerings whereas Kopech has one secondary offering). Go compare the production of these dudes. It's insane how similar it's been for the two main pieces, especially since Moncada was Top 3 and Kopech was Top 30 (now Top 10). Hiura/Peralta are right there with them. This is also why a deal can be done without Hiura - we would still have Top 100 pieces like Burnes, Phillips, Woodruff + others in Ortiz, Erceg, Ray, Dubon, Nottingham etc to not only replace Hiura but then bump up one of the back end pieces to round it out and offset the front end (similar to what I mentioned at the beginning making it a 4 player quality and quantity package). There's no way I'm targeting DeGrom or Thor if they're *demanding* Hiura be part of the deal similar to White Sox demanding Hader be part of Quintana. Hiura is a tweener between Altuve and Pedroia. I also wouldn't do it if I needed to include both Peralta and Burnes as if they're going to be traded they can each headline different trades to round out the team and make it better vs being in the same package for one player.

Averaging 121 starts on defense in that span and trending in the wrong direction. Almost missed over 1/3 of his games in 2013 before being suspended and OPS'ing under .850 with about -1 dWAR every year since going off the PEDs. Looked on the decline last season, and there's really no reason to think that's going to go the other way anytime soon. Father Time is undefeated. He's just a guy who's constantly susceptible to various aches and pains that limit his performance, and it's only going to get worse. Why aren't you whining about Cain? He has 48 more PAs than Braun over the past 4yrs. *FORTY-EIGHT* Braun's had 564+ PA in 9 of his 11 seasons - 2yrs he didn't were suspension year and last year Cain has had 503+ PA in 2 of his 6 seasons. 3 of his 6yrs he's had 442 or fewer PAs. And he's 2.5yrs *younger*. Cain has given his team inconsistent PT. 600+ PA one season then less than 440 the next whereas Braun has consistently had 560+ outside of last season (would have suspension year if he wasn't suspended). Braun is "trending in the wrong direction". I don't think you understand the definition of "trending". Looked on the decline last season? Is that why he had the highest hard contact rate of his career and a BABIP that was 30-35pts lower than the previous several years? He was injured the majority of the time and still slashed 268/336/823 with a 111 OPS+ (prior 2yrs he was 135/131). OPSing under 850 every year since going off PED? He failed the test after the 2011 season. Since that time his OPS has been 987, 869, 777 (played entire season with nerve damage in thumb then had cryotherapy procedure), 854, 903, 823. With 10 games left in the season last year he was slashing 279/350/863. Mod edit: no reason for that last sentence. Please knock it off.

Baseball Reference puts Archer's WAR at 1.8 for 2016, and 1.2 for 2017. If that's an ace, what does that make Zach Davies, who's WAR the past two years per B-R is 5.2 and that number doesn't even include his +0.4 WAR he got as a hitter in 2017 thanks in large part to his league leading 14 sacrifice bunts? Don't think his ability to get bunts down have something to do with Davies having a splendid .633 winning percentage? Think again. That's winning baseball and part of the reason Davies is so underappreciated. BR's analytics are bad. FG blows BR out of the water with true value. What evidence is there to suggest your statement is factual? Fangraphs is based on FIP, which is very basic and very flawed. It *intentionally* ignores a ton of information whereas BF is based on RA/9, which is run prevention as opposed to earned run prevention. It's about getting the job done regardless of how sexy it looks. FIP highly benefits the sexy pitcher (ie high K). Defense also matters and FIP ignores that. Pitchers literally pitch into their defensive shifts, which we all know is a huge part of today's game, while also attacking a hitters weaknesses. In doing so, they're trying to minimize the hard contact knowing balls will be put in play. A pitcher *controls* that, to a certain extent of course, which also isn't factored into Fangraphs. MLB Now on MLB Network is sabermetrics based for the "thinking baseball fan" and uses bWAR (and OPS+) a hell of a lot more than fWAR when discussing both pitchers and position players (ie Hosmer breakdown yesterday was all BR work outside of his plate discipline, which brought in Fangraphs with O-swing, etc). If someone believes 2yrs straight, at ages 27/28, that 1.250 whip, 8.5 H9, 3 BB9, 4 ERA = AS level production (fWAR) then there's plenty of AS pitchers in MLB and it shouldn't be difficult to land one. Last year Chase was a 3.3 fWAR and Archer was 4.6 - if you give Chase the same number of innings as Archer he then posts a 4.7 fWAR, except he was without question head and shoulders better than Archer in every category except K9. Fangraphs overrates the hell out of Archer due to his high K9. Chase was 4.1 bWAR and 1.2 fWAR - which makes much sense. TB also had a much better defense than the Brewers as well. Fangraphs also relies on defense much more heavily for position players when defensive analytics are still flawed. I'm not saying bWAR is perfect and an on-point indicator because any WAR by itself is pure garbage. But WAR used with a ton of other stats/variables can help paint a relatively accurate picture of one's overall performance. Sexy talk aside, Archer helps this team. No question about it. But the foundation of the argument against giving up a haul for Archer lies with his age/performance the past 2yrs as they can be red flags for what can be expected over the next 4yrs. While he's leaving the DH behind and coming to the NL he's also leaving a pitcher friendly park and coming to a hitter friendly park. For me, Santana has to be part of that deal otherwise you move on. If a pitcher is going back it should be Ortiz. I'm a huge fan of Ortiz as the kid has a lot of potential and is still very young but I think Stearns is signing a FA *and* trading Santana for a rotation arm then factor in Chase/Davies/Nelson/Woodruff/Burnes moving forward. It just makes sense to part with Ortiz since he's 1.5yrs away most likely and we still have Peralta behind him who's killing it. For all we know the package was Santana/Peralta to start and I'd be fine with that as well. Woodruff can put up solid numbers as a rookie right now and improve moving forward - he showed this last year in 8 starts. Burnes is a 4th rd pick but 2nd rd talent who has completely and utterly dominated A+ (1yr young for level) and AA (2yrs young for level). He's sitting 93-95 touching 97 with some cutting action he added due to adjustment made prior to the season. He has a power fastball and power slider while also having an above average curve with a change he'll mix in throwing them all for strikes. He, like Woodruff, leads with the fastball and has a bulldog mentality. There are 1st/2nd rd advanced college arms that don't put up the numbers he put up (Puk, Quantill, Hansen) and they're all rated higher so lets not pretend he *should* be dominating when others drafted and rated higher aren't and haven't in the past (obviously some have). Woodruff and Burnes can both put up better numbers (other than K9) than Archer posted the past 2yrs but do it during their prime with 6yrs of cheap control. That's why I wouldn't part with either of them - they're ready now and later this year most likely. Yelich you know exactly what you're getting. Archer you don't - are you getting 2015 or 2016/2017? For the right package you nab him otherwise you move on.

FIXED LOL - Hate when that happens. DOUBLE WHOOPS It's crazy to read back through this thread and see how much changed in about an hour yesterday. For the lineup, I still think CC likes alternating R/L which leads me to think as it stands now: Cain Yelich Braun Shaw My comment was made *before* Stanton was traded, *before* Ozuna was traded, *before* Miami said after all that they're not trading Yelich and want to build around him, *before* Yelich responded to that comment by crying to the public then having his agent cry to the public about how his friends were gone and he doesn't want to be on a rebuilding team that won't be competitive, which was the *only* reason he was traded. LOL hate when that (*context*) happens If Santana is traded Cain should be 5

I firmly believe BF WAR is much more realistic than Fangraphs. That said, Braun has posted a 3.8+ bWAR annually his entire career except 2yrs (I'm not counting his ROY season nor his suspension season given he posted 2.1 in only 61 games). 2014 posted 1 WAR playing with nerve damage in thumb all season (cryotherapy after season) 2017 posted 1.2 WAR in an injury plagued season that aren't permanent concerns moving forward 2015 posted 3.8 and 2016 posted 4.4 - this past season he also had a BABIP 30-34pts lower than his previous 2yrs combined with having the highest hard contact rate of career. Both showing he was unlucky to a certain extent. The past 3yrs he's posted 75M worth of value and was paid 53M. On his current contract, the past 2yrs he's posted 45M of value and was paid 40M. Doesn't seem overpaid. And since nobody knows the exact production he'll post the next 3yrs I have no idea how anyone can say he's already overpaid moving forward. He only needs to post 6.9 WAR the next 3yrs to equal his contract value - that's 2.3 annually. His history shows that if he's anywhere in the vicinity of 550 PA he'll do that with absolute ease. Speaking of PAs - Cain is 2.5yrs younger than Braun and only has 48 more PAs over the past 4yrs. Wonder if people have concerns about him being injured over the next 5yrs like they do with Braun... Attanasio is wealthy. The franchise is valued at almost 4x what he paid for it. He's gone to a 110M payroll previously and can easily go to 120-130M for several years if Stearns can land the "final pieces to the puzzle" type player(s) moving forward. He's not saying no to an additional 10-20M annually for a small window if it potentially puts a ring on his finger. Regarding the trade, everyone knows Yelich is a quality player. He needs to be in LF to maximize his skill set and value with Cain in CF and that appears to be the case. We gave up a lot of talent but we're getting a proven MLB player for 5yrs for essentially Brinson and Diaz + 2 other guys I don't see being quality starters. I say that because I firmly believe Harrison is highly overrated and it was great to sell high on him. Yamamoto is what he is - he's put together a solid track record and has flown under the radar but you can live with parting with him. You know what you're getting with Yelich for 5yrs whereas it might take a bit for Brinson to reach his full potential, which I think can be better than Yelich overall as he can be a plus defender in CF with a plus arm whereas Yelich was average there. And given Adam Eaton is a good comp for Yelich we gave up what we should have expected to give up while being fortunate to still have our top 3 prospect arms.