TJseven7

Thank you for 3. As for 2... thats because I am, and I'm sorry if its offputting but I am. Keith on page 2 stated it wasn't going to end up the first reported roughly 17aav and stated I was going to be irrate. I am, done lost my mind. Think about the thing you are most passionate about in the entire world after family/friends and your faith. This is mine. I follow FOs like people follow the games. I'm quiet during games. This is where I get loud. This NFL offseason has aged me and I'm so pissed at Gutenkunst that I feel like if he meditated, he'd feel it. 3 moves and 2 that I see as wild misses. BUT that's not reserved for GB. Every team spewing resources on garbage frustrates me. Stearns has been a complete delight. You can see him squeezing everything into this team that he can. There are a million boxes you can check off in his favor. I don't question his ability or methodology one bit. However, I've said that many many times about new bright resource savvy gms and sang their praises only for them to show their blind spot. It doesn't make them unqualified for the seat. It's still a blind spot. Dorsey recently got canned in KC for his fear of the unknown in regards to injury. He replaced a value genius in cle who doesn't know how to control a power structure. Hinkie got the same for the 76ers. Schneider caught himself in cap rot and was trend blind and sunk his status. Patience is a virtue... so is a killer instinct. This deal from all angles looks like a rare occurance that you pounce on. It's a chance to get on the plus side of the arms requirement without blasting huge cap and mega years into a 30 year old. He's been a joy to watch. This is concerning. He hasn't done anything that didn't add up to this point. Didn't pounce on the braun deal... fine. Spit value on Davis scooter... happens. Backloading a FA to hold buying power then not swinging... I'm worried.

You'd have to dig through the BPro site for the math, but their WAR is based of their DRA calculation, which is generally defined thusly: Deserved Run Average (DRA) uses a collection of mixed models to tease out the most likely contributions of pitchers to the run-scoring that occurs around them. Unlike other component metrics, DRA considers (and adjusts) home runs and balls in play, and achieves significant improved reliability over the raw versions of those and other statistics. DRA has equal descriptive power to Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), and offers much improved reliability and run prediction. DRA is park, platoon, framing, and opponent-adjusted, and is scaled to follow the distribution of RA9. From 2008-onward, it includes specific characteristics of the subject pitch, as tracked by PitchInfo. It also includes the pitcher's command runs (from CSAA), basestealing runs (SRAA and TRAA), and errant runs (EPAA). That makes sense... FIP like quantifier used. Prediction: We are going to laugh about how bad FIP was as a measuring tool when analytics gets where they are going. I think fip is an outcome blind K driven sham.

You use an acronym for so long that you forget what it actually stands for. Wins replacement... good enough. I can understand a replacement level pitcher being dreadful... cant understand how a quality pitcher is deemed to make such an insignificant difference. What is the baseline set for a team of all replacement level players... as if if you have 25 replacement level guys you will win X games?

Says the guy responsible for damn near half the posts made on the last 4 pages of this topic. And the gist of what you're saying is that is was Cobb or bust no matter the cost. Dismissing the other alternatives and downright eschewing the possibility that Cobb would offer little to no upgrade is foolish. You're trying to make yourself out to be a knowledgeable and logical contributor but your definitive statements and close-minded viewpoints undermine your credibility. There are other ways to complete this puzzle. And to be honest, many of them are much more appealing than Alex Cobb at 4 years, 57 million. This thread is full of defeatist talk, excuse making that hasn't got a shred of evidence, cap nonsense and people doing their best to talk themselves into being onboard. My stance is my stance. It's my stance for a reason and I'm not going to waffle because I want to pretend all is right and good with this team. I'm debating my points. I'm READING what they say and explaining why I think its, wrong, shortsighted or misguided. BUT I am actually reading what they say and not trying to put words in their mouth. The gist... again no. Not at all costs. I liked him best, clearly. You couldn't have talked me into the other 3 at their deals. I don't like the control or cost on top of the fact I don't like them as options. I see no redeeming qualities in those deals from a brewers perspective. Cobb wasn't that type of deal. Good control, good potential, good aav... soo good infact that Id have no problem beating it by 7 mil. None. Cobb or bust infers if a bidding war broke out I'd pay whatever. Not the case... this was a beatable offer. As for his value... sure you disagree with my valuation of him but he's the 2nd best healthy pitcher in MKE. That's hardly a wild take. Disagreeing with that puts you on the bad side of logical odds. I'll settle for most likely because that's the best anyone knows. He could get mauled by a panda tomorrow and die. I'm not going to acknowledge implausible hypotheticals. Sorry. You want me to honor your doomsday... give me a break. Do I ask you to honor the equal possibility that cobb will regain the split change and get beyond the weird and bad fluke injuries as he matures turning into a 3.0 era guy who goes 200ip for the next 4 years? Nope, I don't live in crazy town... how bout you? The alternatives? You mean bend over and show me your farm? Sounds pricey compared to 15 mil and a 4th rounder. I value that cost. How about you? All those young arms available... like gray and Q... who cost too much in trade. Stroman 2.3 years of control at the deadline, already costing 7 mil in line for 2 raises plus a boatload of prospects. That's an alternative? Easy! No sweat. That's the take I need to heed to in the attempt to be an open minded individual? Yeah...no. (Also you cant swear, not even in asteriks )

worrying about what player arbitration earnings will be in 3 years is insane. those players may not even be on the team or in the majors in 3 years. the brewers dont have to offer contracts to players during arbitration years, they can cut them, they can trade them, there are plenty of options that are there to mitigate worrying about unknowns. Also, I think you're missing the fact that Cobb may not even want to come here. so it doesn't matter what the brewers offer. quit acting as if this is only about the money, its not. Baltimore got a deal, cool, brewers maybe made an offer, we've seen plenty of times where players have no interest coming here. that could have been the case. Im not worried about all the arby increases... just the players who would need to be good for us to be good. You have to assume Davies Nelson Knebel Shaw are going to need to be retained... and if we don't then we are going to be so bad it won't even matter. I'm not looking at the perez villar increases but every good player is going to get more expensive. Thats a fact. What is with this prevalent "no one wants to come here" take. Is it easier for you to think this is the case than your franchise is run by tightwads. Is it easier to watch stars leave because... well the town sucks. Cobb was about money. Arrieta was about money. It could have been an expansion team in the Sudan. They were after money.

At least by BPro's formula, Miley has never not had a positive WAR outside of a 0.0 in 40 innings back in 2011. How is 5.4 and 5.6 back to back seasons not a negative? That's crazy. That's like saying Garza was a positive the last 3 years. I would love to see the math that tries to prove that as reality. If you can be that woeful and be a positive... I'll dock my cobb impact back to 3 wins. Can't phathom that a 3.7 for 180 innings is a 2.5 and a 5.6 for 160ip is a positive. Does that make sense to anyone? Do you get gifted a few war for showing up?

How many of those guys had Tommy John surgery? How many draft picks did they give up? What was the quality of the in-house options then, compared to now? How many young pitching prospects did they block? How many young pitchers are we going to hand over for a guy like Duffy because we didn't sign cobb? How many games are we going to.blow watching woodruff earn a 4th arby year despite not blocking him? How long to do expect Chacin to actually block someone? How wasteful do you see using Suter as a great long man vs trying him as a starter after he had a shoulder issue because of 5 ip starts? We can both play this game. The only comp you can make on that list is Garza. He was a 60+% FB pitcher. That made him. That's arrieta skews... not cobb.

Over Miley? I'd guess one or two wins. Given that they missed the playoffs by one game last year, would you have signed Cobb to that deal going into 2017? Wow, you think miley can be a positive war? I'm holding out hope suter woodruff burnes can be but miley... eesh.

Cobb is 30 and has had TJ surgery. That is not someone you ever bet on to return to his prime form. It would be in roughly the same class as the Randy Wolf signing, except a little younger with a slightly more concerning injury history. If the Brewers had been trying to win last year, people would have been absolutely furious that they were planning to start Nelson and Anderson. Just think that through and I think you'll see what I'm getting at. They did the right thing and will continue to do the right thing, and it will work out eventually because it's the right strategy. Giving Cobb that contract would have been impulsive and short-sighted. That said, I wouldn't have rioted because I would trust their judgment. But that's exactly what I'm saying; they've earned the benefit of the doubt. We have incredible talent running this team. Wolfe. Dont use bad examples. Was lights out for us at 33-34. Cobbs deal expires before 34. If you want to try it, say Garza and claim cobb will keep getting banged up and wear out like Garza did. Unfortunately Garza leaned on a FB so that doesn't fit either. The rest... I've admitted its possible that we are still in rebuild. My irritation then flips to the backloaded cain deal.

5... pushes 4 spots down a peg... stengthens depth and adds his own personal contribution. 85 in the mix to 90 in the playoffs. This is absurd and really exposes the shortcomings in your logic. Cobb is an extreme longshot to add 5 wins. That's superstar territory. Can we just stop with the definitive statements already? We don't know if the Brewers were even high on Cobb. We don't know if Cobb was willing to even come here. Consider possibilities rather than drawing wild conclusions. It's really all anyone here should be doing. No one should be making wild accusations or bold statements because we don't enough info. Perhaps the Brewers are aiming higher? Perhaps they will continue to shop for a starter who would plug in as their #1 or #2? Perhaps that acquisition will come sometime this year and make fools of all of you acting like missing out on Cobb is world-ending? It's really hard to discuss something with someone when they are too busy beating their own drum to read your premise. I didn't call cobb 5 war. I said 5 wins. Not wins AGAINST replacement. WINS. I see starts going to pitchers who aren't replacement level due to him not being here. Cobbs war + pushing crap out of the rotation = 5 wins. 2.4 last year... 3.9 peak. Last year was his biggest innings load. He can get north of 3 and our junk can get north of -1. Oh and can you stop with the hypothetical nonsense of why he might not of come here. This was a money grab. Plain as day. We didn't offer the most. We weren't after him... sure. Then who did we miss? Not Yu. Not Lynn. Arrieta lol? Never had a chance.

Yup Suppan had 1 good year in his entire career. Stunning that at 32 he still sucked. Lohse we signed at 34. 2 years he was fantastic. 36-37 is not 33. Looper 1 year 34 Wolf 33-34 he was real good considering he threw 417 innings... 35 spent Garza... well thats closer. At his peak he was basically zach davies good... 28 injuries short year... 29 injuries short year. 30 we got him good era but injuries short year... more injuries every single year. 4 out of 5 are apples to oranges. 1, was never as successful as cobb. Be jaded by our history on overpaid garbage or dudes getting a deal at the age cobb will be the next time he hits FA.

Chacin's numbers outside of PETCO were just awful. Not sure whey folks are just penciling that in as a significant upgrade. You state that the rotation is markedly improved even without Nelson. I just don't know that that is a true statement. His home/road splits are almost entirely driven by left handers crushing him on the road: https://www.fangraphs.com/statsplits.aspx?playerid=2608&position=P&season=2017 Here's an interesting article right about the time they signed him on what the Brewers might do to rectify that: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jhoulys-chacin-will-be-a-fun-brewers-project/ I liked the add. Doesn't change that he's a giant health risk. To go with our big regression risk on Anderson... an open ended question on Nelson...and then depth that won't carry an era in the right direction. Thin thin ice.

5... pushes 4 spots down a peg... stengthens depth and adds his own personal contribution. 85 in the mix to 90 in the playoffs.

13 14 15 16 17 +5 mil defered... if thats not backloaded, up is down. Now would trading a player who is 34 be easier and also more profitable if they cist 3 years at 48 mil or 3 years at 42 mil. At 35, 2 years and 33 mil or 2 years and 27 mil. Glad we saved money in our lowest payroll year of the next 3! that is not backloaded. MLB is not in a cap era, so deferring money has no real impact year to year (ie to skirt under cap rules), and is common practice for most big contracts. Braun is getting deffered money until 2031 even though his contract rate goes down each of the last two years, does that make his contract backloaded? I dont think so. No one looks at deferred monies as backloading contracts. If anything, the $1 mil a year or whatever it is, is basically negligible and unnoticed to 99.9% of teams and their fans. That's hilarious. So your telling me as arby prices raise and contracts raise that they won't be sitting here going... well we spent all we can afford... thats that. That's a lie. 6mil over 2 years cheaper matters. Even if every cost increases it would be an even better deal then. Its like listening to nba fans say... well that 12 mil deal will look like a bargain in 4 years... nope, it wont. Take out the defered money all together if its such a good thing... paying 13 now and 17 then will not benefit this team going forward. It will not increase his trade value and it will matter. Cobb has 20 mil defered... well that makes him a free 4 year 37 mil deal. If defered money doesn't matter, we are morons. Balt just got a great trade chip for their 2018 deadline rebuild party.

"They still have room to make moves. Lot of season yet to play out." And none of it will cost prospect capitol equivalent to Braden Webb. You want Samardjia plus 5 mil per for Braden Webb? That's what Braden Webb would get you. Having the ability to trade Chacin and 1 of Davies Nelson Anderson. Helps the farm continue to restock. Being able to cut that 8-10-11.5 mil, plus 2mil villar, 2 mil sogard, 2.5 mil vogt, 2 mil villar, 2 mil Miley, 1 mil Logan, 1.5 mil Jeffress for woodruff burnes hiura nottingham dubon peralta williams houser helps keep the payroll down. That's 21 mil. That matters to small market teams. Cap wasn't the only thing at play here.

13 14 15 16 17 +5 mil defered... if thats not backloaded, up is down. Now would trading a player who is 34 be easier and also more profitable if they cost 3 years at 48 mil or 3 years at 42 mil. At 35, 2 years and 33 mil or 2 years and 27 mil. Glad we saved money in our lowest payroll year of the next 3!

They might've flinched when prices got above what they wanted to do. I don't think that is too puzzling. I know you like Cobb for $60M over four years but maybe the year were just something they didn't want to do with him (and I don't blame them really). But again... you are backloading a 32 year old for what? The off chance the market completely evaporates and a steal falls in your lap. That's pretty dumb. If the steal comes you make it fit, you don't backload a deal then hold to incredibly frugal offers. If we paid Cain 20 17 15 15 13 I wouldn't disagree one bit. Payroll would be at 102 and we'd be watching his deal decline as he aged and our roster pushed up arby prices. Sitting at 95 mil leaves us short now and hurts us then. If it wasn't cobb... because we clearly didn't fight for him... who is the 15mil arm that makes this make sense... that we also didn't get.

Ok so... They signed a 32 year old OF to a 80/5 deal that is backloaded and defered to keep buying power open. As you said, inducates they clearly were looking for more otherwise you'd reverse that deal. You'd front load it and push for better value down the road. Then Yu goes to the cubs. We offered low, and were reported not to be all that invested. Fair enough. No reason to backload cain. Lynn goes for a prove it deal. You wouldn't assume Cains backloaded to make a 10-12 mil add. That still keeps us under 110 so if we really wanted Lynn well we could have offered him enough to lock him in. No reason to backload cain. Then Arrieta signs a disaster of a contract. Maybe this was our all in guy. That would make some sense but that would take the highly unlikely event of Boras caving and Arrieta basically falling in our lap for it to happen. Not a good or likely plan. Cobb then comes in for a reasonable deal. You've already backloaded cain. You dont do that for giggles. You do that for buying power. The whole team gets more expensive as the years move forward. You dont save now to pay then unless you are making a push now. Yet, no cobb. Salazar Archer Lynn don't cost enough to change cain. Arrieta was a hail mary... cobb was there to be had. That's puzzling. Its not that they added cain that confuses me. Its how they structured cain only to accomplish nothing else that confuses me. Long window, no more buying, you front load it. Short window, buying power now, you add the finishing piece. They signaled push with the way that deal is structured... then flinched. That's puzzling. If Arrieta was the shot it was wildly optimistic. If cobb was the shot they scrooged it when bidding 7mil more probably gets it done. If I'm backloading cain... im not putzing around on that finishing piece. I'm locking that down. 16/4 cobb, cut yo, 109 mil... lets roll.

If you take April out of Davies numbers hes a 3.5 era guy. Or conversely When has Chacin followed up a 31 start sub 4 era year with a season over 14 starts and an era south of 4.4? Answer: Never.

With all due respect, that is garbage. It's not "garbage" dude. You know what's garbage? Over-paying and wasting draft picks on injured/aging guys in notable decline in free agency, especially when you're a small market. Why are the Brewers in this position in the first place? Everyone thought they were supposed to tank, but last season was a testament to how buy-low guys and under-the-radar steals are not only better values than retreads, injury risks, and guys on the decline, they're often better, period. And people want to turn right around after all the success they had last year and waste money and draft picks on 30-something free agent pitchers with all kinds of red flags, going back to the logic that basically squandered one of the best minor league systems this century in Mark A's first 10 years. It blows my mind. At least Garza and Suppan and Wolf and Lohse were totally healthy. Yeah its garbage. As is the notable decline line. Cobb was in his first year back from TJ and didn't have the feel for his monster pitch. Hes a sinker curve change junk pitcher and they age well. Other than looking at his 2-3-4 offering driven 3.7 era... make an arguement for notable decline. Brewers were challenging 1st because the cubs arms aged badly (enter Q darvish chatwood) and their offense and pen under performed. Because they turned a big time talent like Nelson into production. Because Anderson Knebel blew up. Because Davies was a junk ball rock solid guy. It wasn't due to some young pitcher. It wasn't due to hitting on retreds. It was due to polishing up existing talent like Santana Shaw Anderson Nelson Knebel. Cobb fits that a heck of a lot better than anyone else in the narrative. It was also due to some dumb luck because +.5 run diff was terribly inferior to the cubs mark. Team won a boatload of close games.

That makes the case of why you don't sign Chacin more than it does Cobb. Kids having to replace a 4 era guy is one thing. Expecting them to come in and be a guy who can go 6ip and sub 3.6 is quite another. No one thinks Chacin has a chance at a 3.2 era. If cobb finds his monster pitch he does. TOR capable guys rarely go for as little as 15 mil or 4 years. The FA class next year is just as old. Maybe Stearns doesn't see them at TOR guys going forward though. That is the part you're missing on. You have your opinion on them, but he might have his. And there's really only one that matters. Chacin was a great deal. He could turn out to pitch just as well as those "TOR" guys you are mentioning. Maybe he doesn't but he could for a fraction of the price tag. Them... I'm talking only about Cobb. I like the chacin add but he's followed up his last 2 31 start seasons with a 14 start 4.4 and an 11 start 5.4. That happens in 2018 we're dead to rights. Has had 1 good year in the last 4. Cobb was better than him last year without feel for his best pitch. You take Chacins slider away he's fish food. You take cobbs split change away, hes better than Chacin.

Paragraph 1: Guerra stopped strinking people out. His walks are worse. His fall league numbers don't even rival his fall league numbers before his magical flash in the pan year. That's exactly what it was. He's soggy toast. He can be better than last year but nothing is pointing to 2016 coming back. Paragraph 2: Couldn't agree more. So make sure not to put pressure on them! Have 3 rotation spots of chacin and clutter. Let them bounce back offensively and build a lead. Paragraph 3: If that's what you want fine. Stop looking at guerra and miley then. Go suter woodruff from the jump and don't expect much. It took anderson and nelson quite awhile to get to where they are now. Paragraph 4: Quality arms available? Ok delete paragraph 3 because you just traded them. Can't have it both ways.

TOR guy. So 5 elite farm pieces taking woodruff Burnes Peralta off your list of our buikt rotation ranks. If cobb isn't a TOR, then we'll never sign a TOR. Davrish Arrieta never considered us and we shouldn't have considered them. I see this in no way as a reaction to Nelson. Its a good price on a talented guy, in FA. Cost a 4th round pick. It was a rare opportunity. On top of that, looking at this as salary is a shallow view. Keeping burnes peralta woodruff can drive down future salary with cheap controlled talent. After we get Nelson back we could have 2 MLB starters to trade away before 2019. (and Santana if Hiura is ready to upgrade 2b) Chacin and 1 of Nelson Anderson Davies. Get ahead of the curve buying at good prices... trade off excess to restock behind it. Get 3 guys who can carry the era... use 4-5 to develop the next wave. Right now we don't have 3. Only way to have 3 is pray Nelson is Nelson is the 2017 version upon return or a miracle from chacin suter woodruff guerra. Had a chance to have too much pitching. Acted like a poor farm team.

With all due respect, that is garbage. Many folks on here have laid out their issues with Suter in particular. So much so that I don't even need to mention them and you know what they are. People are acting like there is an either/or choice between using the guys we have or bringing in some upper echelon talent. The smart play was to do both. It's not about building depth, it's about building quality depth. You are going to need quality depth if you really consider yourself a contender. I'd feel much better with Suter, Woodruff, Burnes as my 6th, 7th and 8th options. There isn't one team that is seriously considered a contender that has guys like Gallardo/Miley/Guerra/Suter fighting it out for the last two spots in their rotation. The worst part. 4 man rotation, 8 man pen. Suter Miley pen... Guerra Woodruff and obviously Burnes down. The only guy you have to discard from your wealth of depth is Yo. Knebel Hader Albers Jeffress Logan Hoover, barnes williams houser down. Yeah, yo's the depth loss.

They may very well be able to trade for a TOR-type pitcher, but that pitcher will more than likely either be already on an expensive contract, or getting very close to it. It is also going to cost a much larger sum than whatever their 4th round draft pick would bring in. Thank you for not glancing past this like others on here are doing. I've already read how Yelich isn't exactly cheap as soon as next year. Yet, oh we'll add an arm. Yeah for 8mil and/or a ton of prospect value. We could have added cobb for what amounts to Braden Webb or Murphy.