TJseven7

Lol well of course but statistically we underperformed our expected run production as well. That's the question I'm asking. Its not just that Cains an upgrade... its that numbers would point to our team being similar to teams that outscored us by .39 runs per game... as is.

Do you think Arrieta can land a 51/3 after the first 3... or 71/4 after the first 2? If the first 2 are essentially a prove it deal for a 75/3 opt in. Thats 130/5. Arrieta is 2 good years from out earning Darvish in over 5 years not 6. 126 locked in is nice but he essentially took a stretched 125/5 with a 6th year for 1 mil. I dont think they are equal. They are paid that way if Arrieta can give 2 more good years. Even if he doesnt. 75/3... leaves 41/3 to match and we saw plenty of arms get in the 10/1 range. This year. Only leaves him 11 mil short. Baring a sudden implosion arrieta is going to out earn Darvish. Philly SD... good stuff!

Been a burning question for me for while. Reason being: Brewers scored 4.51 runs per game. Az texas boston mia averaged 4.9 runs per game. Pertinent numbers: 254/329/774....220....2457 244/320/750....237....2334 258/329/736....168....2305 267/331/761....194....2412 Multiple ways to skin a cat... from boston mias average obp to texas hrs. Average: 255/327/755....205.....2377 Mke 249/322/751....224.....2346 That doesn't seem to be a big enough difference to impact scoring by .39 runs per game. So why? More importantly, have we fixed it?

Guerra hasn't pitched his way out of contention yet I don't think. I want Suter in the rotation but I wouldn't be surprised to see him in the pen to start the year. Counsell loves Suter. I don't think there's any way he isn't in the rotation at this point. We are going to beat our pen to dust if we don't do something more creative than starting suter, woodruff, miley or guerra.

1) 2nd time through you forgot Davies. Anderson nelson cobb davies chacin 2) arrieta's deal is bad... its 55/2. Only 75/3 if he sucks. Costs us a 4th and has a opt in after 2 set up to be 75/3. 27.5 aav with a fail safe 20 mil in year 3 if he implodes is gross in my opinion. I'll happily take between 56/4 or 48/3 on cobb.... no tricks or player opt outs.

Unfortunately the battle for those last two spots comes down to guys with short track records and/or guys with pretty bad recent track records. This is not a battle of particularly attractive options. That's the truth. I've warmed to the idea of Suter in the rotation, as he's been pretty effective in his opportunities. Gotta be ready for shorter starts with him, though. Not grabbing another starter is putting a lot of blind faith in the coaches and their ability to fix some of these underperforming guys. Also putting a lot of pressure on Stearns himself, because if the rotation isn't good, he is going to hear a lot of second guessing. Guerra for 4 ip with Suter as the piggyback is the answer.

Depends what you think the staff needs to be for the playoffs. I think you need 3 guys who can combine for a 3.6 era and eat 180 ip per. Then you need options that won't submarine the team era. 4.4 range guys. Our era last year from the staff was 4.1. Our pen was a dysmal 3.85. We pitched a lot of junk and our 4.0 era wasnt the culprit. The 4.5 runs a game was. Our raw stats rival teams that averaged 4.9 runs... why we scored poorly... probably ks and a defunct top of the order. If we can score 4.9 runs a game and hold the same era we are a contending playoff team. Then pen should be better. It seems deeper and more complete going into the season. I've estimated 3.6 era out of the pen. That makes the team era 3.9 if the starters equal last year. The question left is... do you think Anderson can hold at 3.2 era? Do you think chacin and davies can stay healthy at 3.9-4.0 era range? Do you think some combination of Guerra/suter piggy back, miley, woodruff in the 4/5 spots can fight towards a 4.4 era? 3.2 3.9 4.0 4.7 4.7 is a staff era of 4.1... equal to last year. If we can shave 1 run off that (from the entire staff) and score 4.9 runs a game we are a 90 win playoff team. As long as you agree with me that the pen looks like a 3.6 era pen. Now add cobb as a mere 3.7 and you shaved that run. So, yeah I'd like him. We'd also have 3 starters at 3.2 3.7 3.9 which averages 3.6 era. Check and check. Nelson is a bonus in 2018. But I also feel a Guerra/Suter piggyback can net a 4.0 era... so thats .7 shaved off. Miley or woodruff at 4.4 era does the trick. Not sure I trust that. Anderson 3.2 cobb 3.7 davies 3.9 chacin 4.0 guerra/suter 4.0 is a fantastic staff era of 3.76. .34 runs better than last year and a likely team era south of 3.7. 3rd in the NL on Azs tail. +1.1 run diff = 90 wins or more. Last year was +.5... offense underachieving by .4.

Side note: keeping him healthy is why most in the "non- roster logjam" camp see no starts issue.

Also favors big markets who can recruit guys with money outside of baseball. Big city equals more advertising money, more faces looking at you. You can compete for Darvish differently, and since he requires no comp you can target those guys while letting your comp guys walk and game the system. Its really set up perfectly for the redsox yankees dodgers cubs.

Why do you think it’s a joke? I mean it sucks to see them get more picks (they have something like 4 picks inside the top 90 with their own picks and picks for Davis/Arrieta) but the compensation for losing a FA has been a thing for a long time in various forms. I think its strange to get an incentive to buy a FA and not keep your own. The comp picks in NFL make sense. You lose guys and dont sign guys you get comp picks. Getting a pick for Davis and Arrieta I see no issue with. Getting Darvish instead of Arrieta and still getting a pick is strange. It's a pretty clear reward and a reason to go after Darvish over Arrieta.

Is Thames batting against only RHP? If that's the case I'd be concerned. The other 2, no.

Yeah even the flat 55/2 would have me running away. This is a 75/3 only if he falls off a cliff. If injuries hit in 18-19 you can keep him for 60/3 more if you wish.

Ooooouch 2 year 55 mil Opt out for arrieta Or Opt-out overide for phillies Override 20 mil base for 3... 115 total 5 Which is likely 25 mil based on starts requirement in 18-19... 130 total 5 Or 30 if he places well in cy young voting in 18 or 19.... 155 total 5. Boras won this one. This is a 55/2 with a very likely 75/3. 26 aav over 5 or 27.5 over 2... sheesh. No bueno! If arrieta doesn't pitch enough in 18-19 its still 23 aav over 5 if phi opts in. Beat Darvish. Yikes!

Just because Santana has played CF, doesn't make him even a consideration to play CF now... He played CF out of necessity a while back, but given his defense, I can't see him ever playing another inning there. I don't want to see thames in the OF ever again. I want braun at lf or 1b. Yelich Cain can basically play all 3 but cains overkill in LF and yelich in RF isn't ideal. Santana is RF or LF only. Perez is the "in a pinch" guy but I prefer LF there too... emergency type play or yelich rest vs Lhp. I hope Broxton gets a good offer. Having the depth we have in the OF should put an end to non-OFs playing OF. Having 3 quality starters there 162 games is a big bonus over what we trotted out there at times last year.

No red flags with Cain's age and length of contract? I didn't say none. I just said the pitchers had more. Arrieta's decline plus TJ surgery for Lynn and Cobb? Yeah, I'll take the guy who just posted the best OBP of his career, played the most games of his career by far, and is still a gold glove candidate at a premium position and one of the best athletes in all of baseball at 32. No question. Cains simply a good player. All around. We currently have a lack of offense at 2b SS and C. Pina Arcia are solid but we can downgrade rf if we have 1 elite guy at those 3 spots. It could be Hiura. Hiura at 2b allows cain to move to RF with no offensive loss and he could absolutely be a plus RF with good average obp in the later years of this deal. He doesn't concern me at all. 5 war leaves a lot of decline wiggle room to still be good and he's easier to trade as years go on. People seem to think he's here for 5 years. I think hes here 3-4 and the 4th-5th year are sold with a little salary contribution. The decider is who pushes up the farm. You assume the constant for 5 years is Yelich. What Lutz Phillips Grisham Ray Stokes become in the next 5 years plus draft picks and dsl talent decides the CF RF need for Cain.

1) Guerra/Suter and Miley at 4-5 is fine by me if cobb isnt in the right range in both years and dollars. 2) Hiura please please stay at 2nd. Him leading off would be fantastic, this kid can hit. I have very little doubt he can pull off 300/360. 3) If cobb isn't added I want 2 "longmen" in the pen. I don't see that 2nd guy on this roster. 4) Braun better play 1b quite a bit.

As I said lynn on a 1 year deal while giving up a pick I wouldn't do. Arrietta at 25 is too much. Cobbs different depending on the contract and its not an 2018 or bust move. Anderson nelson cobb davies chacin moving forward. Woodruff Burnes on the cusp. I feel the 2 young guns can replace a guy like Chacin but I'm not comfortable trusting any young arm beyond that. Better should be a bonus not required. Cobb protects Nelson not coming back. Cobb allows a choice to trade nelson (2) davies anderson (3) and chacin (1) next year to backload the farm while bringing up youth. Adding cobb 3 years allows the team to cycle pitching easier and that helps the team in 2021 as much as it impacts 2018. If we are trying to contend for a long window we can't keep nelson davies anderson until they expire. The comp picks would not replace the loss. Drafting and promotion would have to be spectacular to avoid another rebuild in 2022 when nelson cobb anderson davies are gone or old or pricey as heck. Id honestly prefer cobb 4 years for that reason (i have faith he'll age well) but 3 would work and set the cycle in motion.

Im ok not giving up a 4th for Lynn on a 1 year deal although i think its a good price aav. I'm quite ok passing 25 mil per on Arrieta even if 3 years lessens the risk a great deal. I simply dont think he's going to be worth 25 mil so good luck phillies. I see the aav as foolish as hosmers. I didn't want these 2 in this manner. The question now is cobb and his price. If its 3 years and south of 16 aav I'll go through the roof with my level or irritation. If he signs a prove it deal, I dont want it. I want the upside of his split change coming back and having a 3.2 era pitcher locked in for 3 years at a bargain price. Neither lynn nor arrieta are the perfect opportunity. Cobbs still in play for that. I'll wait fir that deal.

That is not set in stone. It all depends on how long he is down and how many days in the majors he accrues during the season. But theres a way to extend his control.

He also gets a 4th arb year if he starts in the minors correct?

I love instigators, who cry foul. Happens all the time... start across the line, claim innocence, point at the guy who joins the mud and throws it at you. That's my problem with what unfolded here and its sad to see it won't be changing because they still see themselves as faultless.

Can't wait for the next time a few people "don't insult" a guy. Irritated that HH is BS. No harm in giving him some faith... while annoyed it's BS because that's some childish junk, I'm no worse off for falling for it. We showed 2 sides of wrong around here though, no matter what the side that's still here wants to say.

Don't leave us hanging like that!!! Enjoyed this. Lol

Alas, you sunk my battleship!

Top of the order bat Defense plus at CF 5 war capable I'll keep him. I value him over JD.