TJseven7

That makes the case of why you don't sign Chacin more than it does Cobb. Kids having to replace a 4 era guy is one thing. Expecting them to come in and be a guy who can go 6ip and sub 3.6 is quite another. No one thinks Chacin has a chance at a 3.2 era. If cobb finds his monster pitch he does. TOR capable guys rarely go for as little as 15 mil or 4 years. The FA class next year is just as old.

Great post. It's not the automatic upgrade that people are making it out to be, and they weren't closing the gap on the Dodgers, Cubs, or Nationals anyway. Offense rivaled teams on raw avg obp tb and hr of teams scoring 4.9 runs per game. We got better on offense. I've laid out the numbers it would take to get to a +1.2 run diff that rivals those squads. It's possible now. None of our young arms look like Scherzer Strasberg Kershaw or even Darvish or Q. They lose some, they'll get comp picks and they'll buy more. When exactly do you think this will change? It's a defeatist attitude. Their ability to stay ontop is much more effortless than our ability to replace Knebel Nelson Anderson.

Explanations that are valid: They didnt like cobb... if he blows I'll own it. They think we suck and this is a rebuild year. Maybe until Nelson is back and Burnes Peralta (FP in the pen) and Hiura are up we don't have it. Then why sign a 32 year old OF to a BACK LOADED DEFERED deal. Write that contracr BACKWARDS. That doesn't add up. That points to a mistake. They think they are smarter than everyone in the league and have stuff that's far better than anyone thinks it is. ANYONE. Good luck. Riding 2 time through Suter Guerra or a kid or Miley. Good luck. They are CHEAP! Those are your possibilities. Pick 1. I will pick number five, Riding 2 time through Suter Guerra or a kid or Miley., for $200 Alex. Suter does not have multiple years of experience with huge quantities of inning, but his era is 2016 was 3.32, 2017 was 3.42, and this spring training 2018 is 3.00. Chance of accomplishing an era of under 3.71 this year, 70%. Chances of era of under 4.00, 85%. Guerra was our opening day starter last year after a 2016 with am era of 2.81, 5.21 in 2017 (injured most of the year), and this spring training has a 2.45 era. Chances of accomplishing an era of 3.71 this year, 90% (when his elbow gives out, he is done). Chance his elbow lasts until Nelson returns, 75%. Woodruff is about what Nelson was as a rookie (2016 4.62). Woodruff in 2017 had a 4.81 era. Chance of accomplishing an era of 3.71, 10%. Chance of era under 4.00, 35%. Burnes has no MLB data. Chance of 3.71 era, 10%. Miley gets cut and you do not give him a chance with his track record. FINAL SUMMATION Sutor and Guerra are not pretty choices, but they can be a short to mid term option until Nelson returns and the youngsters are ready. Please go look at the starting rotation stats thread. Look for the fantastic post of one Mr. Allen. In it you will see that you are basically saying (by MLB standards) there are very high odds that Suter and Guerra will be a #2 pitcher. You are predicting better era than Davies has accomplished. Suter got through 14 starts (at 5ip per) last year before his shoulder gave him problems. He doesn't even throw hard. Guerra's 33 leaning on velocity. He's missed a lot of time in 2 years. His whip is also still out of control. Woodruff you comped to nelson who was over 4.0 each of the 2 years following his rookie season. I'd be over the moon if he was at 4.2 this year. His ability to repeat his lateral control is concerning. ST stats don't mean anything. They mean even less when MLB arms carry their stats by starting good against milb guys only to get knocked around as soon as the regulars start taking abs. I'm not that optimistic.

Bumping this because I'm going to reference it.

You post as if it is a certainty that adding any one of those FA pitchers would have pushed us over the top. Maybe, but maybe not. But these posts scream, I didn’t get my way so now the path they have chosen won’t work out because I said so. Like a few others have posted I think we need to take a step back and realize that timing is everything and Stearns didn’t like the market on these guys and that’s okay. Depends what you mean by over the top. I've made it pretty clear that I think not having Cobb and having cobb is the difference between starting the season saying mke is in the mix for the playoffs and mke is a playoff team. Is that over the top? Nope. But its where you want to enter the year as a rising team. You give your team a chance to put you over the top. You dont leave them shorthanded and hope they can take you the rest of the way. Screams I didn't get my guy... clearly you didnt read that before any of these guys were signed I wanted this dude at this price. I had turned my nose up at all 3 other deals for a reason or two. NONE fit this team. I've also written out the demands placed on this staff, what they need to do and how horribly optimistic it is to think this group can hit the numbers we need to achieve to be a playoff team as is. The staff is short. If you catch some big breaks then you get to where you need to be instead of push beyond merely being a playoff team. You dont catch breaks, you're 500. This deal... I'm wondering what their excuse is. There is nothing wrong with this deal. He has upside. Sub 15 aav. Same age as Darvish who got 6 years. Not stupid like Arrietas deal. Not a waste of a pick on a 1 year deal like Lynn. NOTHING wrong with this deal. You want to hit the numbers you need this staff at... a 3.7 guy takes you a long long way towards it... but I'm sure suter will be sub 4 right? Guerra will be an ace again right? Woodruff or Burnes will just jump in and be a 3.7 right? Miley now that's a get, right? Cobb 3.7 floor. Add cobb and any surprise covers regression or makes you a threat. You want to pretend this pieces rotation can hold up fine. I'm not buying it. Maybe you want to spit up woodruff burnes grisham dubon peralta for a young controlled arm in july. I dont. Not when you could have it done at 110mil payroll in March. Explanations that are valid: They didnt like cobb... if he blows I'll own it. They think we suck and this is a rebuild year. Maybe until Nelson is back and Burnes Peralta (FP in the pen) and Hiura are up we don't have it. Then why sign a 32 year old OF to a BACK LOADED DEFERED deal. Write that contracr BACKWARDS. That doesn't add up. That points to a mistake. They think they are smarter than everyone in the league and have stuff that's far better than anyone thinks it is. ANYONE. Good luck. Riding 2 time through Suter Guerra or a kid or Miley. Good luck. They are CHEAP! Those are your possibilities. Pick 1.

I'm sorry but "anything's possible" isn't a take. You can argue that he didn't want to be here with equal validity as I can argue he's a lizard person who needs to go back to his home planet in 2 years, thus why mke wouldn't sign him betond 2. You have zero evidence, so do I. Baltimore sucks. The Ravens and the Os don't get bargains. FA has not shown them to be a sought home. If MKE is below a Balt team that's terrible and about to lose 2 of their best players then we might as well give up ever signing anyone. We can be a Rays A's like MLB farm team. Hooray! You don't hold out this long to go to the place you want to be. You hold out like this to get paid. Every part of this points to MONEY. High bidder was getting this guy. It wasn't us. 57/4... so your question is do you bid 60 to 64. My answer's yes.

I specifically said with regard to the rotation. Yes but my original post was in response to someone who basically said "why trade for Yelich and sign Cain if you weren't going to sign one of the top starters?" I believe Yelich and Cain are smart risks and the starters are not, and that's why they did it. These guys are really disciplined and intelligent. Everything is a gamble and it might not all work out, but I believe they are placing the right bets and that pays off in the long run. They didn't see fit to sign any of these guys, and they get the benefit of the doubt easily. With the work they've done in such a short amount of time, it's going to take a long time before I start to doubt them. Cain is a 80/5. Hes not young. As age increases the deal increases. Its pretty easy to see years 4 and 5 aren't the good part of this deal. Nelson is also controlled 3 years. Many others jump into the discussion at 4 years of control. It looks like a 3 year window before choices need to be made. Why short year 1 of your window? The Cain add without an arm add doesn't make sense. Great GMs have many paths to finish but they finish.

"Does anyone here feel comfortable finishing off a contending team with Alex Cobb at 15 per for 4 years?" Hi. Nelson is the deadline addition. Burnes Woodruff also options. Put the roster at 110mil. Ends spending for this year for the most part. Move foward by decreasing payroll by 8 mil by dealing chacin, 1.5 yo, 1.5 jeffress, 2 logan (williams houser peralta), 2 sogard (dubon), 2.5 vogt to milb catcher option. Davies dealt saves 2.5-3.5 of 2019 increase. We have roughly 17.5 mil to absorb increases. Or improve before we hit 110mil. If thats our cap our ownership should be ashamed. Maybe you prefer being almost a WC team or blowing up our farm for 1 piece that you must hit out of the park.

FIFY

Oh how a healthy Neslon would look good on top of this rotation with a solid number two. Instead we argue about whether or not Miley or Guerra will push us over the top. Anderson Cobb Davies Chacin Suter/guerra (piggyback?) Nelson Anderson Cobb Davies for the playoffs Nelson Anderson Cobb 2 of Burnes/Woodruff/Suter in 2019 with assets for Davies and Chacin. Yup... looks like a playoff team to me.

14.25 AAV Keeps looking worse for MKE.

"I still don't see why folks think Chacin is some kind of magic elixir either." Charlie Morton hopes and dreams. I think he was a fantastic value add/ stabalizing piece. Smart FA deal. But he's not a piece you use in your top 3 to anchor era.

Now reporting under 60/4. We're cheap.

"- Somewhere in all this I know there's room for Derek Johnson's influence to improve at least one pitcher more than we could've realistically hoped for. Fingers crossed." Why do people always say this about scrubs but rarely point to DJ using that same ability to return Cobb to 2.8 form? He got Nelson and Anderson righted.

They're analytical people. I think the formula is: Last year's rotation (8th in MLB in Wins Above Average) minus half season of Nelson minus dead weight (Garza, Peralta, Milone, Espino who combined for 210 innings) plus better OF defense (Cain, Yelich) plus Chacin/Woodruff/Suter (absorbing Nelson's innings and replacing dead weight). I dare say that Woodruff/Suter are much better than the dead weight they are replacing (Garza, Peralta, Milone, Espino), then it boils down to Chacin replacing Nelson and the added value of better OF defense. I don't think it's a bad rotation at all. At least, not much worse than last year, which was pretty darned good. We had a 4.1 era staff. Pen at 3.85. I don't doubt we can match last years staff but if you do AND the pen can get down to 3.6 era (big jump)... you need the offense to score 5 runs (.5 run jump) just to be a likely WC team. Improving from there is very hard to do as we are constructed.

This sums up how I feel pretty well. I am sure there is a plan and we will eventually see what it is. Perhaps the Brewers are finally doing what we have always wanted them to do and not buy meddling, mediocre or non-needle moving starting pitchers and going with our prospects. I am excited to see Woodruff, Burnes in the rotation. If we are going with what we have, then go with the youth and not the Gallardo/Miley types. If he's a non-needle mover middling arm... we might have 1 pitcher and a hope a 2nd comes back from shoulder surgery.

You don't go to baltimore for anything but money. Baltimore's horrible all around. Ravens are required to overpay. So are the Os. Machado can't wait to jet.

Well, 1 I didn't know it was a rule. 2 I can and will follow it, but I'll also openly state it's completely ridiculous.

Circumventing the cuss filter absolutely I get. Asterisks or stars is ridiculous.

His 3.65 e.r.a. here last year went with a 1.6 WHIP and terrible peripherals. Also, using the 10 innings he pitched here in 2010 as more evidence of him being better in Milwaukee kind of proves my point about spurious reasoning and drawing conclusions from trivial blips in the data. He was in his prime in his main stint with Milwaukee and that's by far the simplest and most likely explanation. I hope he's good, but I think he's just another retread like Gallardo and Guerra to me and I would rather give that opportunity to Williams or Houser. 2019 or later in the year if he fails as I said. He has done his job here. There's a reason his contract is a yearly option. He's very likely to get pushed out by next year. Like Barnes and Albers he's pitching for his job.

Well another contract I’m good with us not being involved in. Cobb was only to be added at the right price and this wasn’t it. And Im absolutely furious... Briggs you got scooter, davis. I got this. 48/3 or 60/4 is exactly what I wanted. God help me if theres a mutual option on that 4th year. Pretty fair to say Baltimores band box is possibly slightly worse than his conditions in the NL in MKE so we'll know how stupid this was. Good luck piecing this together and carrying this rotations top with what we have... or enjoy bleeding our farm into the 20s mlb wide. Brilliant... freaking brilliant.

I don't think so? I wont question a mods baseball knowledge... As far as ability to handle attrition having Suter Guerra... with a scrap like Miley... fliers like Derby Wilkerson and eventually additions of Woodruff Burnes Nelson we have plenty of options. That part doesnt concern me. The depth of ip/start concerns me. The ability of Anderson Davies Chacin to anchor the staffs ERA is asking far too much. That's the insane part. Even if you think this team can add .4 runs per game you need the staff to shave a full run off 3.2 4.0 4.0 4.7 4.7 to be a playoff team. The cobb 20 war pitcher was a funny take and all but he could easily jump our entire rotation save Anderson. Davies is a 2 by league averages and Cobb should jump him. Adding that and pushing 3 guys down a slot is the difference from this team projecting at 90 wins instead of 85. This is a fringe playoff team as is. If things go a fairly positive playoffs, if things go fairly negative 500. You add cobb you change that narrative to... this is a playoff team. If things go a bit positive the teams a threat, if things go a bit negative its an on the fringe team. If Nelson comes back well let it be a positive that gives you a chance vs the power houses. They left this short. When you count on good breaks to make yourself good enough you fail. Good breaks should take you from good to a chance of special, not almost to good.

Don't kid about this. Don't you kid about this. You have no idea how this alone raised my irritation level to

Not happy. If its 17aav thats 1 mil per higher than I hoped but this could still easily be a bargain. 3 years is low risk in comparison to Darvish. 17aav is low compared to Arrieta. I think he's worth it and we scrooged this one. Not happy. Didn't someone say he'd sign on the 20th weeks ago? Going to need to light some candles at church for this rotation.

That's too nebulous. The simplest explanation is usually the best. He was in Milwaukee for his age 26-28 seasons. There's an overwhelming amount of evidence from 1000's of players over many decades that shows those are usually the best years for players, and that's going to be especially true of players like Jeffress with bad health habits. There's not much reason to think it has anything to do with being in Milwaukee, given the circumstances. That's probably a combination of wishful thinking, nostalgia, and spurious reasoning. And it's not like he was good with Milwaukee last year. A 1.6 WHIP is abysmal. He got very lucky to not give up many runs, but his periphals were significantly worse than Barnes's and even Drake's - and not just in his small sample of games with Milwaukee, but for the whole season. Id agree with it being too nebulous if he was pointing at the 2.6 career era jeffress has posted in MKE but no one is doing that. He was good here. We traded him to kc... he was bad enough to come back for nothing. He was then great here, so great that Texas wanted to trade for him. He fell off the rails in texas and we got him back again for a throw away. From garbage to 3.65 in a snap as soon as he came back. I have zero faith in 2.6 career era here being his results this year, but 3.6... yeah its very possible. There's something off with him that settles down in MKE. We've seen this twice.