TJseven7

Yeah and that stearns blurb really screams our budget is lower than we hope. We are essentially capped til 2021 if thats the case. :-/ Really thought 110 was realistic.

"Whatever you think of Phillips he is is young and has potential. Certainly worth "taking a chance" on......especially if the alternative is a 32 year old on an 80mil contract." I don't think anyone in their right mind can compare Cain Santana and Phillips. Cains defensively GG level at CF. He's a top of the order bat. He's got speed, he's got obp and average. You can pick and choose stuff from Santana and Phillips that rival cain but there's no comparison as a whole. Now if you want to look at Santana V Phillips... you trade some power, and obp for defensive wizardry and its a much easier comp to make. Ks hold similar. Santana should not bat 1... phillips probably can't. Cain's a huge fit piece in lineup formulation and defensive scheme. Santana being shopped immediately has the look of wanting to taje out the negative defense for Phillips. We dont have Cain and this lineups still got a giant hole in it. "If brauns only playing first against lefties and he isn't taking time away from Santana then Braun ain't playin much." Flat calling bull on that press release. Thames is losing more time than just against LHP. "Miley wasn't just "considered", by all reports he was in line to grab that spot. That would certainly see as though he was "blocking" someone younger." Well heres the question. Is suter a longman in their eyes? Do they want a 4th year of control on Woodruff? Answer yes to 1 and Miley beat Guerra for a starting spot. Answer yes to 2... we need Guerra and Miley at 4-5. Do you think Suter should throw a ton of starts as he stretches into a starters role or do you think they should ease him in. Ditto Woodruff. I wouldn't try to push either past 150 ip. 32 starts could put them at 165. As it sits right now, I assume that they were looking to 2019 as the year that matters from the start. Cains a big cog in what they are doing so he was added when they had a chance to get someone like him. Guys like yelich don't come available often.

"The only semi interesting things out of all that was the fact they don’t think they have a lot more payroll space" Oooof, then we are all but capped through 2020. Cap frees up due to Knebel Nelson Braun and Thames. In 2020 we project out towards 98 mil. "This is why all the speculation and all the handwringing and all the belief that we didn't do enough this offseason really doesn't hold water." Even I can accept this but it severely tempers my expectations for 2018. If 1-3 was stacked appropriately, 4-5 could be training wheel rotation spots. I've laid this out many times. The problem is that we don't have 1-3 locked down well enough without Nelson or an addition. This would point to cobb 1 year rationale as well. A tight budget splurge to bridge the team to Nelson 2019 and lock up 1-3 properly until he can get back to successful starts. With the trust youth model we shouldn't add both chacin and another arm beyond 1 year. "He added mostly older players so the whole let the young guys play thing seems odd." We don't have that many young guys ready. The only 1 is suter if you want to push a 4th arby onto woodruff. Burnes peralta ortiz are still at least a half season away likely more. "I still can see us trying for a blockbuster trade to add a starter." I don't until we have a new found surplus in the farm. Burnes woodruff Peralta Hiura and soon enough Phillips and Dubon have a role in our youth slots on this roster. In 2019 we have 4 options for 2 slots at 4-5. Burnes woodruff suter and hold over Chacin. If you start sending prospect capitol in mutiples for 1 piece deals, then thats not the case. Ortiz is the only high level prospect who you can call close and blocked. (Assuming all goes well) that plus woodruff or burnes isnt enough of a package for a big add. Harrison Brinson Diaz are all blocked for 5 years if you get Yelich, want Cain, value Phillips and see hiura as the 2b of the future. So that trade makes sense. "Why sign Cain when you have a young Phillips to play center? Why was Miley even considered for a starting spot with a young Suter and a young Woodruff ready for those spots? Is Braun, as many here are suggesting, going to play a bunch of RF and block a young Santana?" Phillips is playing RF and using his arm anywhere else would be prospect abuse. That's why Santana is on the outs. That's why Brinson was dealt. He's a CF. Phillips is our Reddick. Its very apparent we follow the same organizational idea as the astros have of pitching depth. You need 10 starters. Miley is fodder in that structure. Woodruff they want 4th arby so they want to wait. Suter can be the 4 or 5 as is... we can sit on Guerra. Chacin Miley Guerra Yo... are 4 shots into the 10. Anderson Davies are established. Nelson is established but out. Woodruff Suter Burnes makes 10. It makes a whole lot of sense if you look at some very good posts around here and keep glancing over at roster formulation.stuff that leaks out of houston. I don't feel Braun will block Santana. He'll take his rest and he'll take his spot if Santanas gripping too hard for a couple days. He'll slump bust for him. Thames is going to lose more AB than we are letting on. Also remember... santanas not long for MKE unless his value stays cold. When its Phillips in RF, Braun or Yelich will take more starts there because Phillips is just a kid at this point. He shouldn't come up til theres starts to be had but he's not jumping in as an everyday guy either. To be dead honest... I dont trust sliding offensively from Santana to Phillips in RF until we step up from villar/sogard/perez at 2b to Hiura. I'd prefer Santana be dealt in the 2019 offseason... so please showcase.

I doubt we needed to push cains salary to afford 12/1 on lynn assuming we even offered a match.

Never said I expect it... said we need it desperately.

We've heard nothing about an offer to lynn... yu cobb we weren't even close. Its like keeping a 20 in your wallet incase someone wants to sell you a corvette.

You think Braun playing first is the long silly debate on this board? Yeah the where are we going to get these guys abs has been ridiculous.

Part of the reason I wanted to get out ahead of the curve by signing cobb. Careful with this take its horribly unpopular. I was almost certain you were going with the every year add a chacin model... but nope.

If too much valuable pitching is a corner, well I want to be in that corner REAL BAD!

"Last thing first, who is Nelson the 3.1 ERA horse? Nelson has never had a 3.1 ERA, and it's hard to call a guy a horse who has just 4 career WAR." Nelson started off the season with 5 starts 28.2 ip and a 5.34 era. His next 143.666 in 23 starts (6.25 ip/start) at roughly 3.1 era was one of the big factors to our successful season. That guy was the biggesr of 3 guys who saved our rotation and made our season.

He's starting at 1b vs LHP. Well that ends a long silly debate.

Great post. I think it's narrow-minded to say they have to make questionable "win now" moves just because they acquired Yelich and Cain. Team-building is an ongoing process. Needs change constantly. Injuries happen. Guys emerge while others decline. Just keep getting good players on good values and let it work itself out. Most importantly, develop your own young pitching, because acquiring it in free agency is desperation. It really doesn't even work for the richest teams, but for a team like the Brewers, it's a slow death. The only thing I disagree with is not yet being one or two pieces away from the playoffs. I think the NL is absurdly mediocre after Washington, Chicago, and LAD. I think they have a great chance at a wild card without any more upgrades. So they preserved basically all their future assets except a 3rd-round pick (I consider Yelich a great future piece as well as a win-now piece), stayed fiscally responsible, and still are a solid wild card contender. I think that's a slam dunk off season. Not sure who's saying they have to make a win now move. 3 out of 4 of the big 4 went for deals I wouldn't have wanted. The 4th we offered him a deal I wouldn't have wanted. I absolutely see the value in adding cain and yelich, and if they wanted to call it an offseason with the long term minded adds thats fine. So...don't pay cain 13 mil this year... pay him 17 mil this year. Not what happened. They wanted to add. Their 1 looks to be Arrieta and that's a multi year aging arm too. My complaint is that they wanted more... structured to get more... and were wildly over optimistic in thinking Arrieta (or one of these other dudes) would just fall in their lap. I'd prefer cain to cost 4 mil less in the next 4 years of our long term build.

Reports we were never really in on Darvish after he signed... cobb 1 year offer, lynn landing for 1. I don't consider those trying, nor were they reported as such... yet its reported we tried for Arrieta. What that looks like, I don't know but it reads more serious than a lowballing hope offer like cobb yu. The MA, "yeah I talk to Scott often" spiel from earlier this offseason and our likely target being his prestige client. The 13 14 15 16 17 offer to cain to keep open our multi time mentioned offseason buying power, that we didn't use. I'll call it a step better than speculation... there's certainly some smoke here.

8 of 23 starts going over 80 pitches in the last 2 years proves your point? 50% in the last 3 years proves your point? 80 pitches.

Don't ask.

It really looks like 2 things: Either Santanas market fell apart due to the TB OF bloodletting or philly beat us on Arrieta. That looks very likely and think about when stearns started saying we like the guys we got. Arrieta was wrapped up on the 11th. When did stearns drop the we like our staff line?

That would be correct. They did see Arrieta as years worthy rotation changer though. I'm not happy about that and I'm greatful for philly taking the bullet. 75/3 on arrieta to see cobb go for 57/4 might have killed me. Until the next big boras client has his market crash and needs a prestige deal in 2019 we sure have the look of a team heavily depending on internal growth. I wonder if anyones thinking we have the ammo to go after a deadline ace when we really need one of woodruff or burnes in this rotation. Do we really want to pick our pony and send the other with ortiz peralta and some bats (not hiura lutz) for a young 3 year controlled arm?

As proably the biggest cobb advocate here.... I stunningly whole heartedly agree. If he signed a 12/1 or 15/1 with balt 14 pages of rage wouldn't have taken place. My stance would be the same as lynn. I'm not giving up a 4th for a freaking rental. I'd give the pick for 3-4 years of reasonably priced control abd balt got that. If we truly offered him 1 year and we have TBs guy who was involved with biomechanics its possible to suppose that the split change is a torque pitch and he thinks he either won't get it back or if he does, that cobb will blow his elbow again. Or that his delivery is a injury inducer. Neither is a good look for my stance... and I easily admit they know more than I do... but I still think they are wrong and we missed a chance. As someone said it'll be interesting to follow. People supposed that maybe MKE wasn't interested in him... I never fought that as a possibility... but it sure seems absurd to me. We weren't interested. He signed for money. Things we know. We'll see the rest. That arrieta lean though.... shivers. Terrifying shivers.

I get why you'd think that but also remember how Yu was reported after he went to the cubs. We didn't really have a lot of interest in Yu was the report... we made an offer to him hoping he'd come cheap. I believe word choice matters a lot when it comes from a seasoned reporters. Yu, not really interested, but arrieta made a try. Are you going to say they went hard after arrieta?... no because it points at the club as failing at their goal. Due to that... I'd bet part of the philly crazy offer was because they had to legitimately beat our offer. We seem to be incredibly years frugal so it wouldn't stun me if it was 75/3 because that's Arrietas pre opt in amount. But the 30-25 opt out seems very unlikely to come from mke. The front load 2 year opt out is the part that twists that deal into insanity.

Here is the exact bit from Heyman's article: "The Brewers made a try for Jake Arrieta" We didn't try for lynn... didnt try for cobb... didnt try for yu... we took a shot at arrieta and philly fell on their sword. The only one we tried for was Arrieta... how many people like the look of that?

Arrieta was the "mark" you say... well who could have pieced that together... "Ok so... They signed a 32 year old OF to a 80/5 deal that is backloaded and defered to keep buying power open. As you said, inducates they clearly were looking for more otherwise you'd reverse that deal. You'd front load it and push for better value down the road. Then Yu goes to the cubs. We offered low, and were reported not to be all that invested. Fair enough. No reason to backload cain. Lynn goes for a prove it deal. You wouldn't assume Cains backloaded to make a 10-12 mil add. That still keeps us under 110 so if we really wanted Lynn well we could have offered him enough to lock him in. No reason to backload cain. Then Arrieta signs a disaster of a contract. Maybe this was our all in guy. That would make some sense but that would take the highly unlikely event of Boras caving and Arrieta basically falling in our lap for it to happen. Not a good or likely plan. Cobb then comes in for a reasonable deal. You've already backloaded cain. You dont do that for giggles. You do that for buying power. The whole team gets more expensive as the years move forward. You dont save now to pay then unless you are making a push now. Yet, no cobb. Salazar Archer Lynn don't cost enough to change cain. Arrieta was a hail mary... cobb was there to be had. That's puzzling. Its not that they added cain that confuses me. Its how they structured cain only to accomplish nothing else that confuses me. Long window, no more buying, you front load it. Short window, buying power now, you add the finishing piece. They signaled push with the way that deal is structured... then flinched. That's puzzling. If Arrieta was the shot it was wildly optimistic. If cobb was the shot they scrooged it when bidding 7mil more probably gets it done. If I'm backloading cain... im not putzing around on that finishing piece. I'm locking that down. 16/4 cobb, cut yo, 109 mil... lets roll." So the .... not good and unlikely wildly optimistic ... plan was our idea huh? That's brilliant. We'll just get boras to cave... structure the whole offseason around it. Brilliant stuff. Our "marks A" 70% FB pitcher loosing velocity in a new system where everyone's velocity spiked. GOOD! Faith inspiring even. I should have just followed the tea leaves 1 more step... made perfect sense that we did this to run at Arrieta. Wouldn't have needed the reporter to tell us had I not been soo pissed. Low ball garbage offer to Cobb. Targeting a disaster candidate SP while lowballing Cobb. Warm fuzzy stuff. "Obviously he didn't want to be a Brewer." You know what Luke good point... At least I dont have to read those hot takes anymore. Like not wanting to be a brewer...AL East love... or not wanting to bat. What was it about... EVERYONE ALL AT ONCE...1 2 3.... Money. Who would have thought! Yeah I'm not even going to pull that quote. You know it was obvious and you know I said as such. Anyone seeing that other angle yet? You know... our owner talking to boras. Our target is his "PRESTIGE" client. Faith inspiring all around. Thank God for Philly. Please... please stay in house with pitching. This was a looming disaster all around. Just botched. Front loaded Cain so Mark could get his prestige add. Ps if you were wondering marks budget... id think 25 for arrieta and 120 mil is a pretty good guess. What Boras client pitchers are FAs next year? Our owner wants one.

2019? May well see that at the end of 2018. Expecting both Burnes and Woodruff in June. Woodruff possibly sooner. Nelson who knows... we need him 3 days ago.

"since you want to pick at Suter's small sample of starts." "His July numbers posted above forgot to point out he allowed a total of 3 runs in those 4 starts. So it's not just arguing he can go 6 or more IP, but he can while giving up few runs. Those starts were 82-97 pitches thrown. His final 3 starts he went 15.1IP so 5 while averaging 69 pitches thrown." You missed my point completely. I'm not pointing to his August numbers as if it proves who he is... I'm saying boasting that he can go deep into games because of July is foolish, especially when the 82-97 5 pack of starts was followed by 3 short starts, bad results and a sore shoulder DL stint. See, to me it looks like those 5 starts wore him out. I love suter... I just dont think he can work deep in games/pitch totals. He'd be a sensational 60 pitch piggyback or long man. At 27 that isn't a great sign for his starting future. So you have suter who burns out easy Guerra who isnt fooling anyone, ks down walks up Miley who is hurt yet probably our best hope to carry innings if his controls back under wraps Woodruff who we want arby 4 on And I have no rosy feeling about this. Anderson Davies Chacin have to carry this staff in a big way because we need 3.1 era horse nelson back ... yesterday.

Heyman had those numbers in his latest column.......never know if I should believe those kind of leaks or not You'd think they have feel real good about Nelson Anderson Davies Woodruff Chacin moving to Burnes going foward. Stop gap offer only covers nelson injury and Burnes youth.

Suter was used in so many ways last year, he wasn't asked to go deep into games for most of the season. But you know what, here's what he did in July when he was starting consistently: 6.0 6.1 4.2 6.0 7.0 So not only CAN he do it, he has done it. And if 6 innings is what qualifies as a "#3" then Chase Anderson must be a 4/5 since he only averaged a tad higher than 5.5 innings pitched per start. Followed by 3 bad starts in August 14.1 ip 13 era and a 3 week dl stint. Pay no mind.