TJseven7

If old thinking is having Knebel close a tight game in the 9th instead of Guerra or Miley....yea I'm old. Anyhow, that's my last word. As Wildcat said, this is the ST thread, so he's right we shouldn't be discussing this here. Well that's 1 inning not 2-3 rp.

Individual collusion isn't collusion ;-)

With your plan, I think you beat up the bullpen even more. You say the piggyback starters would average 8 innings? That wouldn't happen. If the game is close you would still use 2-3 more relievers. A LOOGY maybe, set-up man, closer. Plus, what happens when starter#1 or #2 can't get through an inning or two? That's going to happen. Just no way those piggybacks would average 8. So basically what you're doing is cutting the bullpen from 8 to 6 arms, and they will be more over-worked. Plus, it still doesn't make sense to me why you would take a Suter or Miley out if they're cruising through 4 with a 6-1 lead. Yes, yes, they're not as effective 3rd time through the line-up. But with a 6-1 lead, 4-0 lead, etc. there's room for error. Sorry, just makes no sense to me to pull out a starter who could easily eat up 2-3 more innings just because it's time for the piggyback guy to come in. Lots of other reasons I don't like this idea, that's just some of them. Why make it so rigid? Maybe those piggyback starters are needed in other games started by Anderson, Chacin, Davies. I think the key is having at least2-3 guys who can pitch multiple innings, and we'll have that. Numbers say you don't beat up the pen more. If the game is close you want to use 2-3 relief pitchers. 2 max 8th and 9th. But likely no i dont. That's old thinking. What if your starter can't go through an inning or 2? You lose. The other guy comes in an tries to eat 6. Why take suter miley out after 4 innings cruising? Where do they come up in the order? How many outs? Anyone on? Have they faced the lineup twice? I trust the next guy to pick up the lead and run with it. Its his job. You could squeeze a 5th if the right situation presents itself. That makes for a day where 2 guys go 9 ip. Up 4-0 faced 15, not due up. Ok go 5 and let the other guy finish it because he shouldnt allow 4 in 4ip. You can say he could eat 2-3 more ip and he could also decline and flame out and blow the lead. I'm playing numbers... your pointing to hypotheticals that would lead to a loss no matter how you pitch it. Why so rigid? To save the pen. What if one of the top 3 implode... well if its anderson, guerra suter are on their throw day. If its davies, woodruff miley are on their throw day. They can each go 30-40 pitches. If its chacin... load up barnes jeffress and logans throwing a full ip. You will likely lose anyway so who cares. Just get the game over with in the least taxing manor possible. They can average 8... they can also cover 1 of the 3 starters if all goes wrong. They can cover their piggyback guy if he implodes. If the 2nd guy in the piggyback implodes, well, that sucks. Time for the pen.

I laughed out loud reading this, as I was thinking the same thing. This isn't some rookie league team babying 17-year-old hurlers who graduated high school a month ago. They aren't going to piggyback their pitchers. As far as the eyeball test goes, J.J. Hoover and Brett Suter look terrific. Hoover probably has a spot in the pen, and I think Suter is the #4 in the rotation, barring an acquisition. Hiura looks like the real deal as the 2B of the future. Shifting the defense will never work look at the gap to hit to. You need a 6th 7th 8th 9th inning guy so they can be comfortable. You manufactor runs because scoring is hard to do. This isn't rookie ball. Ok kill the pen. Watch them implode and blow games. Its what the dinosaurs would want.

Well you handled your guy well. Solid deal, comfortable place, a chance to reclaim his value in that place and land a pay day instead of ending up in a new place that could submarine him. The collusion parts pretty hard to buy though because if it was collusion SD and PHI don't make those god awful offers. Collusion would require no team wanting to get better... and frankly that'll cost gms their gig as fast as spending poorly. Collusions ridiculous to speculate, the usual spenders not being buyers and the frugal setting prices is much more plausible.

Would you rather have a guy like a Suter who will go 5 and give up a run or two ... or a guy who will throw 7 innings consistently but will give up 4 on a regular basis? I'm not challenging your comment, but legitimately asking the question. The ideal answer is you want a guy who can go 7 innings and only give up 1 or 2 runs ... but those guys are all stars and that is who everyone is after. There are only a handful of those guys in the league. If we have to settle for a couple of guys we are hoping to scratch 5+ innings out of and can get 'quality starts' ... I think that is extremely acceptable, especially from your 4/5. It is ok to hope for better, but to expect it is pressing, in my opinion, because it is hard to get 5 studs in a rotation. Very few teams have it. I want a hard platoon at 4... Guerra/suter. Should allow 3-4 runs and having 2 guys combine for 250+ ip rests the pen. You need innings eaten somehow. As for your math... yeah I exaggerated what our starters outside of davies nelson anderson suter did (suter was included because he did well and basically covered abderson nelson injuries) to the nl average. Problem is nelson was our best... hes out. Chacin is not the same innings hog. The OTHER guys we started averaged 4.8ip. That's a pen disaster. I'm looking for a way to avoid that with a 4-5 that includes short start guys and/or broken parts. We arent going to get an ace who can suppress runs and go 6+ and some seem to think we'll have places to pitch suter jeffress yo barnes 2ip 2x a week and I think thats only the case if we suck. The choice I see is piggyback or pitch guys in situations where they can cost us wins. Basically i hate "longmen" who suck, eat 2.2ip in a blowout, and then are sat on for a week because well we could need him tomorrow! Its a waste of a pen slot. Suter is too good for that role, Guerra is not best used in that role and anyone else in that role would be an innings drag, not an innings bonus. They aren't meant to pitch 1ip in a close game and there aren't 20-30 blowouts a year where they go in 3ip. I don't like a 7 man pen thats functionally a 6 man pen sans blowout or an 8 man pen thats a 7. You cant afford to waste a roster spot. Logan as a loogey (40ip) already adds wear to others. If you go with our 3 sub 6ip guys and 2 more who will struggle to push past 5 you beat your pen to death. I agree pitching ideas need to change but the starter ips shrinking is a part of the solution... there's another piece of the puzzle teams haven't figured out yet because now the pens are wearing out. I also like our pens set up as is (no yo longman please) and I dont want to see barnes torres ip taxed puking. Where we sit I'd be more comfortable with a 7 starter staff guerra/suter woodruff/miley platoons and 6 guys who are actually relievers with 2 being barnes jeffress who can eat 2 in rough patches. Leaves knebel hader albers logan to close the door. But your 3 starters average 5.7ip and the 2 platoons average 8. That at least gets bp innings near 65 without counting any ip from the piggybacks on throw days.

The type of thing that makes me wonder why people think we can trade aguilar. He's a roster filler that you cut when the rosters full. If thames and braun need rest on the same day give perez a 1b glove and forget it. Much more interested in seeing what happens with bethancourt.

We aren't getting that with these 5. There's no chance the 4-5 keep 5.8 5.6 5.6 over 5.5. As for 5.4 being the nl average. We dragged that down last year with our non nelson anderson davies starts by a lot. That's average... i dont see it as acceptable.

Well with an option he wouldn't go for nothing. He'd get lottery ticket youth which is the best we could ever expect via trade. That's the point. A lottery ticket or 2 is worth it when we have phillips. In 2019 broxton'll end up cut.

He has mutiple opt outs. He's auditioning and likely headed down to CS until someone shows interest. Then he'd opt out.m

For the last time... markets aren't set by what you have they are set by what 29 teams want/need. He's at rock bottom? ... no... becuase 1 more year of limited production with no options is worthless... thats rock bottom. He's simply not worth a lot. We got him for nothing then he had a streak. Why is he supposed to be worth something? He's worth more than he was worth when we got him and teams will give up something to fill a need. He's a 4th OF with some upside because hes a 20/20 guy. There wasn't a sell high point on broxton. He's just better than rogers.

You're not keeping choi at this point unless we trade thames.

Would happily take 48/3

Barnes reminding everyone he has options.

I think this is the nail in the coffin for Yo. Hope so, I think he'd make for a white flag longman. As for Guerra, he settled in just fine. Went a good .2ip further than I'd have expected. The 2nd bb in the 1st was the one that irritated me. Toles and turner are going to get ya sometimes.

To the post above. While I dont disagree with the premise these numbers arent strong enough to explain it as a bad ab free swinging K issue because the reality is the the abs with risp weren't that bad. Its like me with villar... i assumed the leadoff 307 obp killed the team but we scored 5.2 runs when he hit leadoff. I also checked 3bb vs 10ks per game and over 3bb under 11ks showed offensive gain but the stats v production was quite a ways off from expected.

This is a good point... walker villar pina bandy is the same price.

I thought I'd care about not getting Walker. He's an upgrade but its very minimal and it's a minor tweak to the roster at this time. Even if he's more consistent. C and 2b are simply not worth money and effort if there isn't a pitcher coming. Even if cobb comes in later... that's the domino that can swing this.

CS is for Yo

No stat is false, it's how they're used. You asked why they didn't score more runs, and avg with RISP was a huge reason why. But its deemed an anomoly.

Isn't batting average with risp considered a false stat... as in clutch is not statistically viable? I get that high Ks could prevent the movement of runners though. Odd part of it... maybe a sample size anomoly...but I saw the numbers and immediately thought it was villar in the lead off spot. Then checked that he slashed 247/301/696 in that spot. Was sure it was him. Then saw sogard hit 263/367/707 in the leadoff hole so I checked. 71 leadoff starts villar 50 for sogard Team scoring by leadoff hitter Villar 71...5.2 runs Sogard 50...4.3 runs Thames 16...3 runs Perez 8... 4.6 runs Broxton 7... 4.6 runs Santana 7....2.4 runs Brinson 2... 4.5 runs Franklin 1.... 4 runs So as much as I want to say Villar leading off was the issue that didn't hold up.

Probably part of it... broxton out for cain in effects that dramatically. Roughly 100 less ks. Ks arent the sole answer though because texas was 13 hr better and 78 ks less and performed much better.

Davies 5.8 Anderson chacin 5.6 4-5 even if you think 5.2 is possible. (Suter woodruff or miley cuz guerra can't go past 4) 71.2 ip per bp arm with an 8 man pen. Jeffress Barnes Albers look like 60 ip guys Logan looks like a 40ip guy Knebel hader 2 long men average 87ip? Ouch. Knebel at 72... hader 2 longmen average 92.5? Ouch.

1) We really shouldn't trust guerra past 4. 2) You are soo correct on suter that I dont want him eating innings after an implosion. 3) Take the final step Short start near lock + great long man = true piggyback. Get on board!

Can I ask what you have against Woodruff? He's pretty much a consensus Top 100 prospect, what more do you need to give him a shot? Options, less service time this year can get us a 4th arby on him. Nothing against him. Want him controlled as long as possible so I'm willing to wait a bit longer.