TJseven7

Sometimes, but sometimes not. You are trying to talk about this stuff in absolutes and it simply is not cut and dry. It is very plausible that a team releases a guy at the end of spring training and the Brewers want them for depth and it has nothing at all to do with someone flaming out. It just isn't that easy. It is cut and dry. You add the best players you can to the 40 man. You buy as much value as possible. If someone else gets cut that you want, find a guy on your 40 that you want less and get rid of him for the new guy. If a guy is cut and you don't like him more than TWilliams and Yardley then you really don't need the spot.

Well for starters, Brown was left unprotected for the rule 5 draft. It's not my stance that they shouldn't waste another day on him but they made that possible. I have a lot of faith in Burnes having a role with MKE going forward. I'd like to see him show he's back before I count on him for anything in 2020. Supak, I just don't know but he fits the same mold as Burnes. I'd like to see him succeed a bit a AAA before I count on him. There's talent down there. I don't dispute that, but expecting any of it before July is overly optimistic in any role. There's a big difference from being glad a player is in the system and knowing there's still time to wait, and thinking you can just plug them into the MLB roster without consequences.

I immediately thought never. You just keep him and get the QO pick. We've got our value out of him. But then looking at Verdugo, a top 50 prospect and 29 mil of cap savings makes me wonder if 1 year of Yelich nets 2 top 50 prospects and a top 100. That's pretty interesting for 1 year of the 5 when we gave up that much for the other 4 we had. Maybe Yelich Cain (if Cain flames out) for 2 top 50 prospects and a top 150. I want to say keep him all 3 years and then just take the QO pick. This deal made me wonder. Brinson Harrison Diaz Yamamoto for 4 years of Yelich Verdugo Gasterol and a top 150 for 1 year of Yelich Makes a lot of sense. Would basically be getting 4 years of Yelich for Harrison straight up.

I get that but not doing this was being delusional. Sale Price Eovaldi were on the cap for 79 million dollars this year. They weren't pitching sub 4 ERA ball and are all past 30. There's another 13 mil on Pedroia who can't get healthy. It's really hard to overcome that. That's almost our payroll on guys who aren't close to living up to expectations. What better year to drop under the lux tax line? And this all ends (and they come out smelling like roses) if they drop 350 mil on Betts next year and buy him back. If they don't, I'm sure they'll land another top flight FA soon enough.

Not that I know what I'm looking at but I like Hedbert's swing.

Hearing half of Prices deal... 48 mil. That still makes Price a -29 mil dollar value. Betts is a 36 million dollar value. Dodgers get 7 mil in value but 26 mil of it is this year. They also get the QO pick. For verdugo and maeda. That's not a value win. That's a 2020 win only. People hate this for the Red Sox but this is a great deal for the Red Sox. Now they are roughly 20 mil under the lux tax line.

100%. QO pick and 1 year of rental service Reset Lux Tax, Verdugo, a Top 50 pitcher prospect, dump Price EASY CHOICE. Deal him and chase him or another SUPERSTAR cuz they can buy whichever one they want. Not to mention you have Verdugo and a top 50 prospect as ammo.

And those spots are only needed when someone has flamed out and needs to be tossed away. Burnes down Albers Jeffress Chacin etc. If you don't have holes, you don't need to add guys. If you start with this many question marks, you will have holes, you will need to trade from the farm to fill them. Nope not at all concerned at SP depth. Woodruff, Anderson, Lauer, Lindblom, Houser. Peralta, Wilkerson, Burnes, Brown. Nope, you very much should be concerned with SP depth. There is ZERO chance they go to Wilkerson. They refused to at all cost last year. Burnes Brown and Supak couldn't pitch at AAA last year. If one fails or gets hurt early, you have 2 options. Suter and Peralta. Those options moving out of the pen weakens the pen which they also can't afford to do.

How much cash is my question. That Price deal is absolutely miserable. I projected it at -77mil in value. Verdugo and a top 50 prospect is a great haul for a 1 year contract (QO pick) and 3 years of trash. Twins did well short term. Maeda's deal is very cost effective. Red Sox clearly won. LAD, well they are better at a really high cost. At least the Dodgers and Red Sox passed garbage. I hate seeing normal teams fall for taking on the ghastly garbage of the big markets.

He's maxing at 6 MPH under his average in 14-16. That's asking him to improve roughly 8 MPH from now until he's back. People freak out about guys losing 1-2 MPH off their FB.

Frietas, TWilliams and maybe Yardley and Rodriguez.

Walker is officially toast. It was posted in another thread that he held a workout for 20 scouts recently and his FB was in the 85-88 range. He was throwing 94 when he was pitching at his best. That dream theoretical (that I shared earlier on) is dead and gone for 2020. McHugh was a guy I had highly on my list as a pen piece early on. I've heard nothing about him, but injury is the very likely holdup at this point.

He's toast til 2021 at the earliest. 88 won't increase that much in-season. 88 won't cut it when in 2014-16 he was pitching at his best. Throwing that FB on average at 94. Guy needs to completely reinvent his mix. What a shame.

I don't agree with the small market premise. Phelps was a piece that helps protect against Knebel not returning to top form. Cashner and Bettis would be pieces that help with pen and SP depth stability. Kintzler is the same. All 4 of these guys could be had for roughly 8-10 mil combined. That's a lot of options pushing towards stability. That's not a lot on any MLB budget. Won't save you from a loss of Woodruff or Hader. Will help a lot if Lindblom Houser don't pan out. If Anderson or Lauer get hurt. Farm depth and how they build options laden players into the system is a big positive but the way they build they have to use all avenues to their fullest.

Yet, when I said 3b was a minor issue after Sogard got signed people just wouldn't hear it. It's not going to be hard to replace 3b/2b from last year with Hiura Sogard and Gyorko. It's very likely to be significantly better. The only area MKE lost was at catcher. At catcher that loss is mostly defense. I wouldn't have paid Moose what he got, but people need to realize 2b/3b 2019 to 2b/3b 2020 isn't about Moose. It's about a full year of Hiura coupled with Shaw's disaster last year.

This. There's chicken and egg to it but this. Yes, you can't get to leverage innings as often if you starting staff doesn't hold a certain line, but having the ability to close the door on teams at a very high rate when you've gained an advantage is a very important and underrated ability. It's likely the reason why MKE has beat their projections 2 years straight and it's why they constantly beat their Pythagorean. My stance on it doesn't come down to all these stat calculated value numbers but I'm sure it echoes them to a degree. I do think they under value leverage. A starter who can't pitch better than 4.5 ERA ball is depth. They are nearly worthless. 2 mil type players. A pen guy who can't pitch better than 4 ERA ball is entirely worthless. Min deal type players. They are up and down, and volatile year to year. The ones who can sit sub 2.5 year after year are every bit as special as SPs 1 step below ace level. There aren't 30 aces in the entire league. That's your baseline. Anyone beyond that point is a detriment to the team. After that it's all about impact. Aces throwing Sub 3 ball year in and year out are worth every penny they get. They are a value early in their deals (see Cole, Stras) and the only reason you don't invest in those guys as a mid market is because of duration of the deal. They will make you better and will be huge values until they decline. 7 years is a long time, so unfortunately those deals put you in a place where you win today but eventually lose. (and likely on a level that offset the early gains, which mid level markets can't afford to waste) This is why cost controlled multiple year top level starters are very expensive via trade. I have Hader as more valuable than Woodruff, and see Woodruff as one of the few starters MKE currently has who is capable of unseating Hader. That will take a considerable step forward. That doesn't mean you should spend up on relievers either. Market dictates price, and you can snag some very good relievers on very friendly deals. (see Phelps) It's basically a quest to get your starting pitching at 4 ERA staff wide as cheaply as possible. Starters are overpaid or get too long of a duration on their deals. Getting a starting staff sub 4 will either be expensive or require great drafting. Then to make your pen as strong as possible without paying anyone an absurd amount of money. And something MKE has done a solid job of but aren't all in on is that when a pitcher comes up, they don't have to become a starter. They have to pitch where they are most valuable. Houser fits in that mold most directly for me. Starter 4.5 ERA. Reliever 1.5 ERA. One is a throw away. One is a big asset. Especially since he is a 2IP reliever which does increase his value. If Houser can't get to 4 ERA as a starter, I doubt he will match the value he'd have as a 2 IP between 2.5-3 ERA reliever. I see those as reasonable expectations. I believe this is why MKE drafts so many college advanced arms. They are trying to get inexpensive 4.0 ERA guys and relievers. Taking the college advanced guys makes it more likely that they will achieve those marks. I also see no reason to think a college advanced guy (who is deemed mid rotation upside like Woodruff) can't end up as the lead starter in the 3.5 range. If you get 2 guys in that 3.5 range you are well anchored. Having 2 above average 3.5 ERA starters is all you need. You have 2 guys at that range you need 2 throw away level starters to hit the 4ERA mark. You need 5 guys in the pen sub 3.5 and 2 have to be sub 2.5. Because as people pointed out, offense can make a starters start worthless. But having 5 guys who consistently put up 4 ERA as a group is going to give you a very good chance to be leading after the starter calls it a day. Game in and game out. Then the pen needs to finish it.

To major pieces this is the case. If we lost Yelich Hiura or Hader, yeah the team is in trouble. To not so major pieces, I say we need more depth in the pitching staff. Luck is a factor. Leaving your season up to luck is highly avoidable.

I'm also very interested to see what Cashner is waiting on. If he's holding out for a chunk of change he can hold his breath as long as he wants. If he's holding out for a "guaranteed" SP role he can go play for a bad team. If no one's stepping to the plate, he seems like the type MKE would pursue if his demands were reasonable. Last year he scrapped his sinker and cutter. They were both horrible pitches for him. Started the year with 17 starts over 5.6 IP per start a 3.83 ERA and a 4.26 fip. His FB CH SL graded very well. The CB which he used a solid amount has never been a good pitch for him. I really think if he scrapped the CB as well he could have some late life in his career. FB 50% up 2% (no sinkers), CH 30% up 2%, SL 20% up 7%, would be a good pitch mix for him by the numbers. 94-85-85 on the 3 pitches velocity. Now do you want him starting with a 3 pitch mix or in the pen is the real question. He could be a very nice traditional long man on a 3 pitch mix. While that's usually seen as a garbage man position I think having a guy who can go 3-4IP and pitch sub 4 ERA ball isn't a bad thing to have.

I don't agree on the price with Clancy. I'd be more along the lines of 1.25 mil 2020 40 man spot MiLB deal. 2021 club option for 4 mil with a 250K buyout. Maybe toss in some MLB boosters. I do agree that he's an interesting option that I want. 1st off I'm going to caution the 2017 2019 road splits being used. 1) Sample size is very very small. 2) He was coming back from having CANCER and going through CHEMO in 2017. One of my years in college we had a CB who went through that following his Senior year football season and fall camp as a freshman in college. He lost a TON of weight and was going to be cut until a few coaches were alerted to the situation. Kid rebounded massively with a healthy off season, his year 2 was night and day. Chemo is brutal. Also in 2019 he was used in the pen and that didn't suit him well, he was also pitching through pain in his hip all last year. He recently stated he hasn't felt this healthy since before he had Cancer. I think 2017 is a throw away. 2019 he was pitching through a lot of pain. 2015 and 2016 this guy was pretty even home and away. Not great but even. Guys 31 and was a 2nd round pick. I don't think he's done yet. I don't think he's going to be much better than 4.0-4.4 range as a starter. But that's Anderson Houser insurance for a very cost effective price. I also don't see him as a durability concern. Guy had cancer and a nerve issue in his hip. The nerve issue is a full recovery in 6 months (for pro athletes) and rehab starts at 8 weeks after the procedure. It's not back, shoulder, elbow and arm stuff. It's not even reoccurring soft tissue issues. These two are pretty fluky and (hopefully) a 1 time fix.

I knew this, typed and instantly forgot this. Yeah, between Jackson, Barnes, Williams, Albers, Burch, Wilson and that RHRP version of Wilkerson. It's hard to imagine Barker Sanchez and Griep would be far worse. Both Barker and Sanchez put up good showings in small sample sizes last ST. At the very least let them throw 10-15 innings in ST. These guys are the types you want to test out in the 7th and 8th bullpen spot. Even if you ideally want Rasmussen Devin Andrews to replace them, if they are given a chance and pitch well they become trade bait for lottery tickets instead of guys you eventually lose in rule 5.

Hernan had versatility and speed. Ronny has some versatility and pop. However Hernan graded well in LF RF SS 3B. Ronny only graded well at 2b. I like him for AAA depth but the guys a poor mans Hernan.

He's traded for a ton of rentals. Yes at the deadline but he's all about price and control. If he can send you guys he's not interested in keeping and guys who will be rule 5 eligible he'll deal for rentals. He's always looking for rentals for scraps though. The reason it's at the deadline is because other teams are looking to get anything instead of nothing at that time.

Right now I'd be content enough with Cashner (but tell Cashner he can go start on a horrible Os team or be in the pen of a playoff contender who just made Pom 9 mil per) and Bettis. DFA Williams or Yardley and Freitas. Bettis gets a 40 man Milb deal. Bettis starts the year in AAA Cashner starts in the pen and starts only if MKE is that far down the well. Both should command under 2 mil. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/12/latest-on-chad-bettis.html Just screams MKE.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIL/2019-spring-training.shtml No Lutz? He was NRI last year. Also a bit confusing why Barker isn't a NRI. He was good last year in ST, good during the season makes sense to give him a chance to show something this spring. I also don't know why Wilkerson is there instead of Supak. They'll never use Wilkerson as a starter and he absolutely can not be a reliever. I don't see why he's still here honestly.

There are a lot of interesting names that are eluding the reporters. Walker, McHugh, Sanchez to name a few. It was recently stated Sanchez is going to miss most of this year due to a slow recovery. I really wouldn't be surprised by anything that comes out medically on some of these guys. If they were healthy they'd be long gone.