TJseven7

KC was already starting its rebuild... The question was always how fast would they tear it down to start building it back up.. That's my point. They lost their 2 best bats and moose is still unsigned. It's closing in on a disaster offseason for them. Won't take a lot to drive that team into the ground. A couple rp, duffy, escobar, whit and it gets ugly fast. Still don't think I'd give up assets to get duffy over signing cobb but its a lot more interesting as to where they go. Being this late in the offseason does them no favors.

I know Machado will.cost a ton. Doubt it's 63 mil annually but ok. 42 is even pushing it. But he's actually great so he's worth taking a shot at. There are better options for 21/5... heck we landed one. Cubs landed one at 21/6. Even if you don't land one you still wait for the RIGHT one. The late years? Is he getting 45 mil of his 105/5 this year? If he's good doesn't he bolt on the 39/3? Isn't it a player option? He's also 33-35 at that point. If the final 3 are a team option I see your point but I still don't like it. If its a player option you only get to keep your fof if he's not worth 13 mil. Waive to Braun. Basically saying arcia is 1.3 seasons in at the same age hosmer had 2 years. If in 4 years arcia has moved his 2.3 war to 10.1... basically 2 war per season and then has a 4 war season at 27 do you think hes worth 21 mil or are you thinking he's a decent guy who had a career year at 27. Basically if arcia is a 10.1 war guy going into his last arby year I'm going to be disappointed not lining up a mega contract.

Does losing Cain and Hosmer trigger them to blow it up?

Then why get better at all this offseason? It's as if they came in going we are going to buy something this offseason. That's a horrible idea to 1 off. You 1 off with a great target. Throw something stupid at machado next year instead... add someone who hasn't been a 2 war guy. Options sucked this year... wait for a good year to buy a pr piece. It's just a very bad look. If you have budget for 1 20 mil piece make it count. You dont get in a bidding war for a 2 war player. He's getting a lot of money to be a captain.

Clown show? Again, maybe what they’ve built the past 2-3 years in tanking and international spending will bust, but it’s not like this proves San Diego (today, as we stand) is like playing for Herb Kohl’s Bucks where he meddles in every move to try to get the 8 seed. The Padres just tanked and seem to be making shrewd moves. Tanking is easy. FOs who can put more money into int signing due to a low payroll should come out ahead more often there. Using multiple spots to rule 5 guys is a smart way to tank and steal talent for the farm. Drafting can be aided by picking early. All these pluses can point towards being smart and shrewd, but can also inflate their appearance by making the FOs job easier. Building a team is a different talent. FA and trades are different talents. Nfl guys who can draft have been fired because they botched contracts. They've done a great job in using money and roster spots differently to improve their farm. They got some great picks by being awful. The first signing they make is the new r&d guy's #1 fools gold signing that they paid premium for. I don't know how he can see that as a good omen. Even if it's a 1-off... why him? It looks like a very risky plunge.

Cameron is r&d. I'm real happy for him. Jumping from the internet to the good ole boys world is a hard jump. It's totally a pr move. But you cant tell me that if you penned an article saying this guys the biggest oops in the fa market... and the team that just hired you is fighting for him... that news of this signing wouldn't leave you applauding the big addition with a smile like a good soldier... but going back to your office, sitting down and pulling out your hair wondering if you just took a job with a clown show, or if you are wasting your time...and thinking FML before standing up and tossing a plant at the wall. That's where I'd be. That's funny! And brutal.

I wish this was the case but I think this is the first time Boras got a team to sign off on something stupid. The others are waiting for their stupid offer. 144 mil over 8 years isnt a bargain especially when he can opt it to a 105/5. This dude got Darvish money. 6 years 10.1 war... 1 year 4 war. Not getting paid for 2 war 7 year average. Not getting paid for the 1.7 war average prior to last year. Thats 21 mil per based on last year and a stuck with him 39/3 kicker.

Who has to assume who is not THAT stupid? Is Cameron assuming ownership is not that stupid? I'm not calling Cameron stupid... his stupid would be tapping his article where he called this exact guy the biggest FA landmine. They've sucked for a good long time and have lots of prospects for sure. Probably won't change this year. You have to laugh about that article and his position today.

Boras shoots and scores and a bunch of people around the internet say its an overpay. Boras... champion of fair value. Lol.

Yeah but he's got to be sitting there not wanting to rock the boat but also watching that boat slowly glide into an iceberg. Ownership starts drifting the boat that way and he's sitting there in his head going... oh no...oh no... crap... no crap no... well its just 8 years... and only 20% of the payroll for 5 years...sigh.

Let’s wait to see if this is truly a “bag o balls.” Tampa has not been extremely well run lately but they’re a team of professional evaluators...I remember people making fun of our return of a bunch of low-A fodder for Lind. Now there’s Freddy Peralta. Palacios looks promising. Gotta think TB really likes him. Yeah yeah... you're being fair to the prospect. But even if he's a carmona like prospect... doesn't it still take him and a few other tickets. I mean essentially he went for less than Jason Rogers. Or for roughly the rental price for swarzak.

Woof... So a 5 mil sb... 100/5 with a player option for 39/3 more. I want the ex fangraphs guy on the podium for questions! Wonder where his heads at today. When 2 bidders dig in... KC wanna start over?

That is eye-opening, and just adds fuel to my "I don't want Archer if it will cost us top prospects" fire... Santana even up for him, sure. Santana and a throw in, fine... Oh it goes further. First 3 years... 64% 60% 66% FB... with 31% 17% 41% classified as sinkers. Next year no sinker 54% Last 2 years no sinker 48% FB. Dramatic uptick in both slider and change up. Fb velocity is minimally down. Tenths of a mph. Results. Well in the first 4 years his FB was a 6.1 run suppressor. Last 2... uh oh 18.7 run allower. Change from negative grade of .3 to a negative grade of 1.8 on average 1-4 vs 5-6. Hey his slider is still good! Archer is a FB slider guy and his FB is getting smashed. His pitch values look like Chacin's. Give me cobb with his plus sinker plus curve and hope the thing comes back.

3.35 xFIP vs. 5.10 xFIP... And yeah 2/3 of an inning per start over an entire season is actually quite huge. Oh yeah I forgot... luck doesn't matter in batting but it does in pitching! Analytics logic. Or is it clutch and luck don't exist unless our numbers say otherwise. 2 guys same defense same parks one unlucky on era the other lucky. You can't convince me 20 ip a season changes a guys worth from bag o balls to empty your farm.

Has Odorizzi ever really been significantly injured? He's made 28+ starts every year since he was in A+ in 2011. He's just not a very good pitcher and can barely go 5.0 IP so he has never pitched more than 187 IP in the majors (with 33 GS that year). I think he's going to be exposed a bit when his ERA no longer has the Rays and Royals defense behind it. Does that also go for Archer... the rays D behind him comment?

If he could max out Gallardo why couldn't he max out Odorizzi? ;-)

Side note 61 starts 331 ip 3.89 era worth a bag o balls 67 starts 402.1 ip 4.05 era worth Santana Burnes Peralta Phillips Those .6 ip per start sure are valuable!

But you are talking like next years arby matters. He's a 6.3 mil 1 year deal. Next year is next year. And even if he sucks this isn't a big loss. Its a very reasonably priced filler arm. It cost them nothing in prospects. If we don't add someone I'll be a little irritated we stuck with 2 of Gallardo Miley Suter Wilkerson Guerra being needed over throwing tb a Ward level prospect for this small discount.

FWIW, Odorizzi may get 8-10 next year. The money is pretty much negligible but Odorizzi is the best pitcher if he stays healthy. That’s the big if. They can decline arby. It's a 6.3 1 year deal. Beats garcia and vargas easily.

I mean really... Garcia 10 mil Vargas 8 mil Odorizzi for 6.3 mil and a ticket. Twins win that 3 pack.

Are we sure they are having a fire sale? It made sense to me for them to move a starter to clear space for Honeywell. Basically just sent Dickerson and Odorizzi for Cron a spot for honeywell and 9.9 mil savings...

Well if we got nelson back healthy and woodruff going strong I'd be a little irked with a lottery ticket position player for Chacin. Really low ask. Ward or mccallahan for him... sheesh low. No brainer for MN. Cheaper than Garcia. Probably better. Gave up next to nothing.

Dickerson only costs 6 mil... wth? He's got to be on the move. Are they planning to replace him with cron for a 3.6 mil savings?

Thames for McCarthy isn't a big asking price. Why we'd get pazos for Aguilar... no idea. Why we'd immediately promote pazos to the 8th inning slot... no idea. I wouldn't deal jacob barnes for aguilar. Although a bit worse than Pazos... Barnes isnt going to sniff that 8th inning role this year.

The thing about Boras is that it really doesn't matter to him if Holland or any one particular player doesn't make bank because Scott has 4 or 5 guys that will get paid. That's where he'll get his money and headlines. He gets to spread out his risk and make outrageous demands for all his clients knowing only a couple will get ridiculous contracts, some will get "fair" contracts, and others will get left picking up the scraps in February. I feel a little bad for those guys who could have gotten modest, multiyear deals but gambled and get the shaft before spring training, but they knew what they were getting into when they signed with Boras. One thing in defense of Boras and all agents really in all pro sports is the agent does work for the athlete. So take Holland for example. Boras may have advised Holland to push for a 4th year, but in the end, Holland had the choice to say no, i'm accepting this offer from Colorado. Same for any athlete. At some point when offers come in, it is up to the player to accept one or not, regardless of the advice an agent gives. Holland rolled the dice that the advice Boras gave was accurate about demanding a 4th year and he looks to have been burned by doing so. This in combination is exactly my issue with Boras that doesn't effect my opinion of most agents. Super agents like him aren't representing their client as much as they are trying to set the market. Most other agents are just trying to do whats best for their player without the audacious leverage play. The "collusion" crap is Boras holding out his players and tantruming. Hes the one pointing at the front offices. Look at every league. Dramatic cap increases lead to power agents driving the market into spend it all mode. At some point those deals prove absurd and all but the elite players take a massive pay hit as teams wait for those crap deals expire. Thats league wide in the mlb right now. Too many long term deals that are worthless. All low war players taking short term deals. Even the top of the market... which is a lot of solid but not elite impact players are getting squeezed. Harper Machado etc wont get squeezed next year... they are elite. Everything thats not elite is going to get squeezed until the long term depreciating into garbage deals clear. As for Holland, Boras screwed him. Why on earth would you hire an agent then tell him no. He's supposed to be the expert. He listened to the guy like he's supposed to and that ahat left his client in a bad spot to fight for his own market control. Boras screwed up. I hope everyone who doesn't expect to sign a deal for over 100 mil leaves his agency because 100 mil clients are the only guys boras actually represents. 17 mil aav was an amazing get for Holland at 32-34. 35 at 17 mil would be absurd. Maybe he's great then and earns 12/1 at 35. Who knows but 17 mil per for 3 years at that age is a great deal. 17 mil for that 4th year looks like absolute disaster. 34/2 seems reasonable. Boras needs to get it through his head... teams will pay production. Just not for years and years past their prime and well into their decline. This was inevitable due to fully guaranteed contracts and burning teams on them for a decade.