TJseven7

Side not on Davies. I know all games count equal and all but... First 3 games in 2016 and first 4 games in 2017. 33 ip, 31 er.... 8.45 era The rest 321.2 ip, 124 er..... 3.47 era Not a playoff pitcher?

Right, I feel like most of our weakest spots were addressed to the point that even if we have regression in a couple other areas...we'll be net ahead of last year. Don't forget, the team we had at the end of 2017 was better than an 86 win team. We had so many players perform very poorly early on in the season, once we trimmed those guys and added guys like walker...the team was a serious playoff contender. Right. Walker is truly the piece left without replacement. But there have been 2 huge upgrades elsewhere. Down the stretch we lost anderson for a chunk then nelson. We were down an arm. Chacin replaces worse options. While swarzak and huges are out. Albers is in. Over 162 haders ip will outpace hader and swarzaks ip last year. Jeffress improves on our 1st half bp mess as well. Logan improves on drake. 1 more merely stable (4.2 era) starter makes this team stronger as a whole than any point last year. The team can pull a garcia or corbin and see what the deadline holds. With overstock like santana and phillips waiting. Nelson on the mend. Burnes on the way. Maybe Derby? Williams, Houser, Bickford and Peralta if we declare them pen pieces. The depth is outstanding even if you only roll this team back 1 year. They could also easily crack off a diplan williams houser nottingham level prospect and bring in 2 of last years version of swazak to really stack the pen. Close the year with knebel hader albers and 2 "swarzaks." Jeffress barnes etc are just tap out arms at that point.

1 more point on regression. Cain vs heavy usage of broxton Braun vs aguilar and some thames vs lhp Yelich vs brinson phillips thames perez villar kirk franklin If 2b gets worse shoot me in the face... at least it won't lead off. Covers a lot of regression and is far more sound. While the pitching is likely not as top heavy (missing nelson, knebel as, anderson stud, heck gem suter) its equally as hard to imagine being as bottom poor. (380 innings of 4.8 or worse) I think a garcia/corbin add makes it hard to imagine 1 guy sub 4.8. It's possible but 380 ip is a lot. Woodruff was 4.8 in his getting feet wet start. Chacin for his career isn't close to 4.8. Albers barnes jeffress logan suter don't look 4.8. Garcia/corbin level add is nothing to get excited about but they also aren't Garza bad. The bottom is up from garza guerra peralta torres milone feliz etc.

"The Brewers were able to ride several players performing above career norms to 86 wins and the cusp of a playoff birth last year." Yeah but its even hard to say career norms with these guys. Shaw basically did this at 25. At 26 he got screwed around with and tailed off. 27 he got a full shot and was ready for it. Santana was 24. He had an injury interupted start to his mlb career. It was his 1st year on the stage. Thames is a different dude now than his career before korea. Arcia was year 2. Pina was in his first go round. Aguilar first real go round. Sogard totally agree, no idea where that came from. Villar was bad. Braun was human. Broxton was bad. I get what people are saying... but these guys just started their career. Their milb numbers tend to back it up. The league could adjust but at some point in your career you become what you are. Before then you struggle. It's hard to point at career norms when all the guys you point to have less than 2 full service years prior to last years explosions. It's not going to project well in systems because their history up until last year was them growing up. Maybe we have a broxton villar mixed in this group. Maybe there's a lightning bolt who fades fast. It's also very possible we bought low on guys who have blossomed into what their career will be across the board. Pina is the one I look at cross eyed. Villar broxton were far more risky longevity wise than I feel shaw and santana are. Thames changed and matured. Aguilar could always hit. Arcia looked the part of his milb numbers. So when people point at career best or regression I shake my head going, yeah but aren't they young and on the rise as well? Wouldn't you expect an uptick from young players who are settling into the majors?

[sarcasm]Well why didn't he fix Garza then?[/sarcasm] Yes, I do agree with you here. It really is going to be interesting this year to see if some of these guys can repeat their performances and if he can get a few new guys to also produce better than expected. I believe anderson is a 3.2 guy now. Im still a tad pessimistic...but to close a season strong... hit the offseason... start off a 2.89... miss a chunk... come back and finish the year off blazing 2.47. Hard for me to call fluke. That's a highly shook up 200 inning fluke if its a fluke. Even pre injury I was more nervous with Nelson that I became about anderson. Now if he can make woodruff nelson anderson part 3... giddy up. Burnes part 4... would be downright scary.

Right, but we can make reasonable inferences, right? I'm not writing anyone off and Anderson had a great second half but do we write off the fact that the three years prior.....not so much? In other words, I think it's more reasonable to think of Anderson as a 3/4 than to assume he is the exception to the rule and broke out the second half of last year. Sure, every year is different and lots of different things can happen. That doesn't mean you plan for the most optimistic outcome for each of those things. That means you understand the risks involved and take measures to mitigate those risks. By the way, I am not knocking Anderson. I just think of him like I did Marcum. He is a really good three on a championship caliber team. Problem is, he is our one right now. Since July 25 of 2016... 202 ip... 62 er... 2.76 Nelson was put through pitching boot camp in 2016 and changed his mechanics. It finally clicked in 2017. Anderson got here in 2016. It clicked late july of 2016. I think our pitching coach is good.

If Walker is to be signed, I think Sogard should be the one to go. He won't be. Because Counsell probably plays through him most likely. But he should be. If we go into the season depending on Sogard at all, we will be deeply disappointed. At least with Villar, there is a chance for him to be a good player. Sogard, I don't buy it for a minute. Although one hot streak last season probably cemented him on this team until Counsell is fired. This. Perez has his Lhp usage. Plays everywhere. Villar is still a talent who could be used as a sub and if he catches fire again he could be traded. Sogard is sogard. But its bad asset management to keep a guy no one would trade for over a sell low talent like villar. Villar drives me nuts but you cant deny he's got tools. As for the idea of adding walker. Perfect huira bridge candidate. As for elongating the stack... any way you slice it. Cain yelich braun/thames shaw santana walker pina arcia Cain yelich braun shaw thames/aguilar walker pina arcia Even Cain yelich braun/thames shaw walker phillips pina arcia With the 5 pack as is we can afford villar another shot. Maybe even bat arcia 6th and pina 8th. If we move santana, the offense needs a 2b it can depend on.

Maybe I simply undervalue Anderson and Davies but I just don't see those two leading a championship rotation. I also think that every time these conversations come up we fail to mention that Nelson is not a part of this team at the moment. That production has to be replaced. It's not simply a matter of just replacing the sucky parts of the rotation with mediocrity. They also need to replace pretty darn good starter. Absolutely. But if Nelson doesn't come back strong there isn't even a discussion. Teams not good enough. The 1-2 these giants toss out force us to have 3 that can hang around. We have 1 right now. Getting 2 more right now bleeds the cap and the farm. As for davies and anderson. Anderson has been amazing for quite a stretch here. Its not ace dominant but its ace results. If he's late bloomed, I give him a shot at getting thru 5 within 1 run of anyone vs anyone. Davies is a different case. He's hot and cold with his control sharpness. Nothing says this dude should be sub 4 era but he keeps doing it. Bad first 4 starts then he gets in a groove and the era slides down more and more. If he's on... i could absolutely see the guy pull a Charlie Morton post season. That 3 would give the team a shot vs anyone. But no nelson... even adding archer asks chacin or woodruff and davies to have a special run. The angle I keep looking back at is KC. Knebel hader. Maybes... albers barnes jeffress bickford williams houser peralta. After seeing the pens fume out in the playoffs... get through 4-5 ip close and win late.

So what's the goal then? That seems like an awful lot of eggs in a single basket. What is the offensive drop off from Santana to Thames/Aguilar? How is that offset by improving a spot in the rotation with a Salazar or Archer? What is the defensive drop off from playing ggers in non gg positions? Santana doesn't get you archer. Might not get you salazar. My goal is to not consider this a 1 year window. Be creative. Piggy back LR starters in chacin woodruff davies suter. Lean on the pen. Add where its frugal. Hope the top 2 can hang with the big boys. I'm not putting all our eggs in on archer and his 4.0 era. I dont think that fixes the issue. Even the trade deadline is a long way away. We don't even know what the team is by then. Nelson anderson aren't the real deal and this is useless talk. Thames aguilar regress and there's another hole. Plan is to be in position and have assets. Team wisely got walker swarzak and jeffress last deadline for nothing. Plug holes on the cheap and let it play out. Be a rock solid team, shake things up a bit and make them beat you. They are better. It comes with a gaudy payroll. They are better. There's no trade that magically fixes that. But even those better teams... every one of them showed serious weaknesses. It's always going to be unlikely.

I'm not saying it's a bad lineup. The question is how does it look when compared to the competition. Do you put that lineup over the Cubs? The Dodgers? The Nationals? If there isn't major regression from the top five or six spots, sure, that is a good lineup. I still don't know that I'd say it's better then the teams I mentioned. For the most part those lineups have players with longer track records. They just don't have the question marks we do. And even if you do say it's better do you put the current rotation up against Kershaw/Hill/Wood/Maeda? How about Scherzer/Stasburg/Gonzalez? How about Lester/Quintana/Hendricks/Darvish (probably)? I know I'd feel a lot better about matching up a rotation of Arietta/Nelson (assuming health)/Anderson/Salazar with those groups. I'd be far more confident in that than Anderson/Nelson/Davies/Chacin. Absolutely no doubt we'd be begging to tred water thru 5. Knebel hader albers this years swarzak and maybe barnes jeffress williams peralta? Team has to be pen dominant with this staff. Its the only way they win in the playoffs currently. You also can put it past or analytics guys to go nelson anderson chacin/woodruff davies/suter. Go piggy pack for the post season with jeffress to gball jams.

I'm with you. It's been a while since we've this much to look forward to. Having said that, the pitching still scares me a little bit. If Nelson were healthy then I'd feel better but he isn't and there is no guarantee he will be. I don't think they need Kershaw, but they need improvements. 1-2 simply cant be overstated. Its something I begged for in the lineup thread. We need a 1-2. No one we had profiled as a 1-2 unless we put santana thames/aguilar there and that really shortens up the stack. Its 5 now 1 way or another. Villar arcia pina can do their thing and they are just extra. 1-5 carries this team. Im actually not worried about pitching at all. Reason being 380 ip from guys 4.8 or lower. This staff simply has to be more stable. Woodruff chacin just have to be 4.2 guys and this staff can handle a lot of regression. Jeffress here was a bonus. Now he gets a full year. Hader for half a year was huge. A full year of him is like hader covers ip by hader and swarzak. Logan better than drake. If albers can simply replace hughes and knebel doesn't fall way off the pen is far better over the course of 162. We simply need a guy like gallardo or suter or wilkerson or 1 more fa to take the ball and not be guerra/garza/peralta and the staff will put the team in a better spot to win daily. At no point last year did this team have a 1-2 batter that made you comfortable. At no point last year did this team have more than 3 good starters. Only after hader swarzak jeffress did the pen stabilize. Merely having anderson davies and 3 guys who just dont suck would be an upgrade.

Im not even going to remotely disagree with you about dombrowski, but I suspect Martinez would dh for the red Sox quite a bit... which would add value as he isn't losing any by stinking it up on the field. But that in itself should kill his value. If you are going to pay a guy dont you want them to be multifaceted. He will DH... great. Guys who can hit aren't as rare as guys who can hit and effect the defense positively. It's part of our santana dilema. Part of the cruz dilema in days gone by and davis recently. I'd dh thames aguilar before I paid for a dh. Take it 1 year farther. 125/5 on jd. Or 240/8 on machado who can play short or 3rd well. Its a no brainer. I'd value dh lowly. Maybe that era is on its way. Cross sport, its like paying a 2 down LB big money. Its a grunt position. Its just not that valuable. The point that cain (at only 80/5) is more valuable than jd who wants 125/5 is solid logic in my book. 9 mil more for a guy who only makes you better 1 way is nonsense to me. I want the dh in the NL to happen and if we ever pay one I'll be irritated. Braun would fit there but we are stuck on him. Santana would be great value there. But paying a hitter only, just seems foolish.

I'd be on board with that. Ditto. It's still asking a lot but the team has a chance at having a homegrown (at least traded in pitching for non prospects) rotation very soon. Nelson drafted Anderson (got in segura deal) davies (parra deal) woodruff drafted... burnes drafted ortiz (lucroy) peralta (lind) hader (fiers gomez). Another arm like puk groome mckenzie (i know unlikely) etc would up those chances dramatically. I'm much less adverse to dealing diaz harrison brinson yamamoto for yelich than I would be dealing burnes peralta + for archer. Take as many chances with arms as you can. If/when they click they are ungodly valuable. Draft a mix. When milb bats promote trade your mlbs out for arms. Aka santana phillips situation. Pitch what you got and add a few "hidden gem" value pitchers in FA. Trust the process. I want a team that sells off entrenched talent for prospects when guys are ready to graduate and the price is right. Trades in, and buys fas who are undervalued pieces. A team that's always interesting and can go for it when the pieces are in place and the market allows buyers. Its how the small market catches big market teams. Some tb cle aspects to arms. Astros cubs aspects to sticks. Team has to draft well, int sign well. Right now the teams gathered a lot of talent. It doesn't fit on a 25 man roster but that shouldn't be the initial goal. More is better value is value. Sort it out when the time comes. Time hasn't shown up yet but all the steps so far are looking real good.

There was a lot of very positive talk about him improving in every facet since coming here. We quickly pounced on an extension. He didn't regress after missing time. In fact he closed the season as a 2.47 era. Left at 2.89 era. I'm still leery to say yes he's sub 3. But I think the current Anderson is going to resemble last year a lot more than his other years. I think at seasons end he's close to top 30 in starter era. I think there are about 8-10 aces. He's not that guy... but hes a 200 ip horse with a stellar era. I think he might outpace all of our rumored targets. Lynn Cobb Archer Salazar, Bauer. Only guys that have a shot in my mind are yu and a healthy arrieta... if that even exists.

Problem is that if Domingo is here until July, it will be tough for Phillips to get enough ABs as 5th OF. Even with Braun playing 1st vs. lefties. Will hard to get full read on his value. Only if NL finally had a DH, Domingo would be perfect! Really hoping they finally make switch in the coming years. Domingo controls own value. Like HH said, he comes out in 1st half & repeats or even better grows, his market will increase. Yeah the only downside to keeping Domingo is Phillips stays in AAA. you just dont promote him unless he can play a lot. He doesnt get that chance as is. As for the braun thames aguilar logjam. Cut aguilar. Problem solved. Last year there was talk of, we have no bench guys. All guys play. Well broxton is a bench guy now and will rarely play. Aguilar has no spot. Thames is a platoon mate. It is what it is. Is it best use of broxton thames phillips aguilar. No. With Marvick there is no rush and you cant make a case that thames broxton or aguilar are better than yelich cain santana braun. So they dont play as much. Thems the breaks. But this notion that we have to deal santana because aguilar gets squeezed out or thanes gets less ab. Say that out loud. Aguilar and thames playing more is your concern? Really? Cain yelich braun shaw santana... yes please. Broxton aguilar don't belong in that group. Thames can jump in vs rhp when he can hold his own with that 5 pack. Ample rest for Braun, check. True top of the order, check. Improved defense, check. Lower ks, check. Thames regression insurance, check. Take all offensive pressure off 2b ss c so you can see what villar is, pina is and not be forced to count on Arcia improving dramatically. I don't see the problem. I also believe if Santana is merely close to as good (260/350 25 hr) his value still goes up. It'll show year 1 wasn't a fluke. Power and obp is a nice duo. I even expect the power to continue to rise.

you ask & I will respond... The average Indian fan would go nuts with the idea of Santana only for Kipnis & Salazar. Every fan (even those not thrilled with Salazar over the past 1.5 seasons) would expect more than 1 piece back for him alone. The question becomes what is the other piece. Kipnis is still a fan favorite so they would expect something for him alone. So I would echo A Swing & a Drive (Tom Hamilton's catch phrase by the way): Santana & Ponce would not be sufficient. Part of my reasoning on that is I don't believe Ponce would be a target for the Tribe. They have a handful of other pitchers being crowded at the AA level pitching wise (the group at high a Lynchburg was very good last season- McKenzie, Bieber, & Civale among them). So if the prospect piece (or pieces) was different, there might be a chance. IMHO if it was Freddy Peralta & a lotto ticket, there might be a chance because the deal could help in the 2018 push (Peralta might be able to assist the 2018 club in the bullpen & the change having Santana). The average Tribe fan would enter a 'wait & see' mode thinking 1) the Tribe got ok value in the trade (everyone wants more) and 2) wondering what would be done with the Tribe salary savings - is there another (non-MKE) deal being made or an extension being signed by someone like Lindor/ Cody Allen/ etc. Sounds like they illogically overvalue Kipnis. It's like Braun here I guess. 30 mil is far more than any 2b will get this year and it's not an easy argument to state he's the best of that crop. Can't afford waste when you are trying to claw to the top as the prices are rising.

That's my reason for not wanting to deal Santana. In the scenerio I'd actually go a step further with phillips120/broxton40 in the 6 hole. But that makes 2b even more critical. Braun/thames still goes 1b with braun in LF for some OF rest. About 25 games of yelich and cain.

Lock it when you wish I just want to ask any and all mods at once, and even the board. Instead of locking threads because there's clearly some irritation ongoing (im part of it). Can we open up a thread to discuss our decorum towards people with supposed "sources?" I hope it would be within the bounds of civilized but know it would also be on the edge of a S-show. Could we let that one derail as long as its not petty and full of insults to save the board from boil over posts. Plush and others involved are valuable part of this forum. I'm mad at him for his conduct but its true. They shouldn't be banned but the worst part of those threads was the pissing match about credibility that is wholly unnecessary. I'm as cynic and skeptical as they come but not on stuff thats fun that hurts NO ONE. I just wish we had a template of sorts so this forum was welcoming to possible leaks who can peel back the curtain a bit, instead of some rotten apples being allowed to stink up the bushel. Give it a try?

That thread is gone why are you posting here to ruin another thread. Feel free to PM me and I will be happy to talk about this topic with you. http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-vQPa2bHpYLI/TfDHS529U0I/AAAAAAAAB-I/jfpWrFrRMXg/s1600/pot_kettle.jpg WINNER!!!!!!!!

That thread is gone why are you posting here to ruin another thread. Feel free to PM me and I will be happy to talk about this topic with you. Because people have fragile egos, so they accuse others of having one so they can be the show. Because trolls are trolls and can't turn it off, they have to destroy good things or at the very least fun things. Because some guys here like to read their own snark. Because some posters are hipsters who want their forum to themselves and don't want it to get popular. Because grown men form catty little cliques just like teenage girls. Because some guys just love to pick holes in everything and can't help themselves. Because if you can cut down someone who gets attention you aren't as far below them as you were. Because they don't have anything better to say. Plush, YOU, for damn sure, don't have the right to ask someone not to destroy a thread right after YOU destroyed one. I almost did message you but honestly I dont think I could stomach 7 more paragraphs of you trying to justify yourself in the attempt to wash the troll stink off yourself. Your tone and attitude sucked. You should apologize and stop telling people how to act for a bit. You dont have a foot to stand on.

220/320 corner power bat who is a minor defensive plus. So if Chris Carter wasn't a defensive liability he'd be worth 9 mil? I don't think fraziers type is valued these days. That has nothing to do with Cain. Upton 2 years younger got 106/5. 5 mil more per year. I don't get how people watch 2 years of this dude operate with barely a mistep then assume... cains a stupid add, the market changed and stearns Fed up. We lost leverage now. Blah blah blah. Just want to say 1st? I mean good grief. As for what now? Stick to our values like we have from the start. If that means our 5th starter is gallardo suter guerra or wilkerson so be it. Sign Garcia on a 1 year deal? We started peralta guerra garza espino and a terrible pen for much of last year. I remember it being OVER 42 Full games of innings from guys who were 4.8 era or worse. 380 ip. Lets say we start Suter at the 5. Who on this staff is over 4.8 era? Woodruff? Suter? Our long man? I'm not sure but I'm not expecting 380 ip of it. Teams better as is and was good last year. There's no immediate need. Nelson Burnes could both be "deadline" additions. Peralta houser williams could be pen adds. Hader for a full year jeffress for a full year albers a real loogy in logan. All these are upgrades. Relax. The team was good. The team is better and less braun dependent. You dont need to swing for a kill shot right now.

If you think 'value' has anything to do with only acquiring OFers if we had an OF problem, I don't think you understand what 'value' means as the term was used. Cain and especially Yelich are multi year investments who were acquired because Stearns and his analytical team believe the value they bring in production exceeds the price paid in money and prospects. That's why they were acquired, not (prinarily) because we wanted to 'go for It' in 2018. Todd Frazier's contract vs WAR suggests a true value. Cains suggest overpaying down years to acquire his high war years in a win now move. Guys been 5 war his last 3 on average. His down years could quite easily be 2 war where he's paid market. Plus the no trade list declines with age. You can eat some cap and flip the last 1 or 2. Basically you just want him to carry a 2 war floor. This teams set up to do well in the next 4 years unless you want to build a superfarm. Guess I'm saying the window kinda opened last year. Teams too decent to suck. Santana shaw 1b platoon pina, anderson nelson davies knebel hader. They all sped this up by being good players. Woodruff could be next. So you forget what you have and look at the unproven farm? Deal out current producers for waiting. Or you respect what you have in the majors and try to win here. Teams on a 4 year window as is. Cain makes the team better. Yelich makes the team better. But you dont throw 125/5 at arrieta or a huge give for archer because it helps year 1 of a 4 year window. 1 year later we could be looking at anderson nelson davies (repeats last year) woodruff (shows strong) burnes (arrives with a bang) and saying yeah we'll stick with these guys. I dont think yelich or cain were overpays. In 3 years we could be graduating ray lutz grisham and we can afford to eat some salary on cain if the of is Yelich Phillips Lutz. Just because you add, doesnt mean you jave to start overpaying for now. You dont have to all in. Especially when it seems like the trade market is as high now for pitching as it was at the deadline.

Not good at 35, sure. He's put up huge war numbers 2 of the last 3 and the other wasn't too shabby despite struggling with injuries. He could decline and be 4 war. 4-3-3 in the next 3 is his contracts worth and even at 2 war he's worth his yearly salaries. Shouldn't be that hard to eat some money and flip him in either of his last 2 years. The 13 or so mil we pay him this year, I'd expect a very solid value there.

Be careful, though, of just using ERA. Archer's FIP numbers the last four seasons are 3.39, 2.90, 3.81, and 3.4. You can make a valid argument that HR's would be more of an issue in Milwaukee, but that may be cancelled out to a degree by the AL/NL switch. Great K/9 and K/BB ratios, and durability that shouldn't be discounted. I get people believe fip is a truer indicator than era. Era involves "luck." But we now have 4 straight years where Bauer was unlucky. 1 year I get it, heck half is an anomoly, 4 straight years, every year, is a pattern. Davies finds a way to mitigate his fip to post a sub 4 era. Bauer hasn't. Buy low, upside laden target. Sure. Big trade target, eh. People overrate Burnes and Peralta, sure I guess. But looking at guys who are 4 era guys increases their chances of being equals some day. Now I know Anderson fits this idea as well... but we sold segura at a point of low value for diaz and anderson. Santana coming off a big season isn't worth more than Bauer? Unless we fix him he's only a good back end guy or 4 starter at best. Archer was a star his first 2+ years. His last 2 he's a 4 era guy. Certainly an upgrade to the rotation but we are being asked top 2 arm price on him. His talent says yes, the last 2 years says no.

So I'm ok with going all in. But something is driving me a bit batty. Bauer... has not put up 1 year sub 4 era Archer... yes the first 3 in the 3.3 era area are fantastic. The last two at 4 era? We talk about all this surplus value archer holds. Yeah if you get 4 years of 3.3 era 200 ip archer. If you get 4 era archer you are basically looking at an expensive Chacin. So the guys not Kershaw. Hell Bauer might not even be Davies or Chacin. Anyone bothered by the fact we are selling prospects for a controlled talented guy who needs to regain (or in bauer find) his upside? I'd almost rather collect Chacin types and hope woodruff barnes ortiz hader peralta can simply get sub 4 era. Snag Corbin cheap. Anderson Davies Chacin Corbin Woodruff. Nelson Burnes Ortiz in the system. Both these guys have great talent, they aren't great. Charlie Morton (signed like chacin) just won a ring and was a big part of the outcome. Give me underappreciated arms who produce over hyped talent. Just seems like Quintana was cheaper to get and safer than Archer at this point. 4 straight years prior to last years trade drama sitting at 3.3 era..