TJseven7

If Aguilar is being shopped its real logical to think Braun is the rhb in that 1b duo. There's no other option on the roster or in the system.

Yet... give me arrieta... just sign arrieta. Some people care, clearly others haven't the slightest worry.

Villar .373 babip in 2016?

Broxton/Thames would open AB (thames) but as I said if Braun can't play 1st Thames is needed and thames/braun isnt redundant like braun/aguilar. Dealing thames is sell low and risky. Broxton/phillips trades away our AAA OF depth stash. Doesn't change the mlb roster make up at all. Right now the start projections that are logical have zero for phillips broxton (barring mlb dl and subsequent call up) and zero for Aguilar. Flipping Aguilar for anything would be great but all the same questions remain.

I love how no one seems to care arrieta is a 31 year old FB pitcher who just had a serious decline in velocity. 32-36... not a good idea. But 30-34 on another option is met with talks of he's old and will decline. Archer price absurd. Arrieta long term disaster in the making.

Dealing Broxton doesn't fix the OF 1b depth issue at all. It just trades a dude who would be in AAA.

I know it's crazy but I'd still love to see Braun to LAD for Kemp and 2 Dubon level prospects. Dealing Thames seems too risky and sell low at this point. Aguilar I can't imagine having genuine value. Leaves the trade to clear "glut" talk hard to figure out. Broxton or Phillips moving doesn't change anything. Not cain or yelich for sure.

85-90 starts at 1b/dh + ph where he kills rhp.

Suter deserves the long man role.

Rf santana 145 cain 17 (145 santana, 139 starts previous max) Cf cain 128 yelich 34 (145 cain, 154 last year, prior career high 139 starts) Lf yelich 121 braun 41 (155 yelich, 1 over career high last year) 1b thames 85 braun 77 (118 braun) Dh opportunities can be used to increase starts by Braun or Thames. Thames really doesn't lose many starts at 1b. He had 108 appearances there and 30 in the OF. Even if you count all 108 at 1b towards his starts, 123 total, he's losing as many OF starts as he is at 1B. I'd send down both broxton and phillips... move aguilar for a ticket and have a 4 man bench of thames vogt perez sogard. I'd carry 3.5 OF with emergency depth like perez thames until an injury opens up playing time. If someone hits dl... broxton or phillips cover. Either way... when you stop seeing Braun as a guy who can start over 120 games and you realize 85-90 vs rhp is plenty for Thames, this fits real easy. Even easier if 1 of 5 guys misses any time, which is likely. Best of all no garbage abs in the OF or 1b.

He's 30 with low wear and tear. He's also a junk pitcher not a fb guy. That's not THAT old. He's basically the youngest safest arm of the "big 4."

Yes, so basically Kiley was saying that if the 2017 MLB draft was re-drafted today, he would have both Keston Hiura and Tristen Lutz ranked among his top eight overall players. For those interested, he also mentioned the next three after that list would be Baz, Bukauskas and Heliot. There is obviously still a long way to go in the development for both Hiura and Lutz, but the early returns on their prospect pedigree has been very positive. To give a little additional insight, Kiley was with the Braves last year, and they had Lutz in for a private pre-draft workout. Eric Longenhagen relayed at one point that Kiley had told him Lutz’s exit velocities were “in the 110-to-115 mph range”, which is elite for anyone, let alone an 18-year old. While Fangraphs is the first top 100 list we have seen Lutz in, it seems his star is on the verge of rising very quickly with a strong showing this season. Every time we go over roster composition and should we trade santana stuff I keep thinking how amazing this team could be with Lutz in RF and Huira at 2b. Woodruff Burnes Peralta Huira Lutz feel like the key to an elite team. Cain yelich braun/thames shaw huira lutz arcia C I mean look at that! Knebel Hader Peralta in the pen. Teams got 2 arms you can trust. Nelson FA Woodruff Burnes. Could decide it.

Its a shame he absolutely sucks defensively. I could see 255/345 being closer to reality on him. Still think his power profile can get him near 30 hr with those averages. But that makes the 225/320 with 25 hr power of broxton vs lhp and the NOT 307/373 with 25 hr power of phillips vs rhp Look like a smaller O downgrade than I'd assume. Defensively it would be a bigger than 1 war upgrade. Maybe Id take Duplanteir and pieces or Gohara and Toussaint after all.

It wasn't working post TJ and he tried to tinker with it but couldn't get it right inseason. Instead of screwing his results he battled with sinkers and curves. He's going to get it back. With Johnson I'd nearly guarantee it.

The problem with hanging onto him is that there just isn't enough spots for everyone. Yelich, Cain, Santana, Braun and Thames all deserve to be playing every day if healthy. Then you have guys like Phillips and Aguilar that arguably could be getting regular playing time. There's only four spots available. Even if you jettison Aguilar and say Phillips is your 4th outfielder, that's still 5 guys for four spots. If your answer is to platoon Braun and Thames, then you are taking one of the team's top bats out of the lineup every day. 2 points... My biggest issue with dealing santana is that the team gets very light against lhp Unless You leave braun in LF aguilar at 1b... braun yelich cain is not the huge upgrade we could have accomplished in OF defense. Thames... .182/.264.... 658 ops I see a good 60 games where Thames can sit. No worries. That'll clear out a good chunk of that playing time crunch. Cain yelich santana braun need to play... thames doesn't... really quite often he can sit. I'd love phillips in RF... but I think 2 things would need to happen for our offense to not take a massive hit in moving santana. 1) phillips 120/broxton 42 vs lhp. 2) We'd need a C or 2b who is a legitimate rh stick. Mejia (s) or Huira when they are mlb ready would do the trick.

Clancy, I really hope that part in bold was a mistype. Freddy is already on the 40 man (was added this offseason). If his debut is delayed to 2020, the Crew has just burned 2 of his 3 option seasons with 2018 & 2019. I really thought Freddy would be in the bullpen at some point this season (either in MKE or with another squad after being part of a trade)... Well he's 22 this year. They haven't moved him to the pen yet. 22-23 could continue to be see if he can start years making 2020 the debut in the pen. I could see it. I think it'd be wise to fast track him (like hader) but at his age it's hard to stop looking at him as a starter especially when he's already at 120 ip and his whip looks good. He's 1 year ahead of Hader that way.

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/giants-reportedly-get-creative-to-sign-tony-watson-avoid-luxury-tax-penalties/ More info 14/2 or 21/3 is where it ends up. Sf is bailing out a sinking boat with a spoon.

What makes you think 145? He just threw 180... missed 3 starts... 2 because he was battling turf toe. 1 because the year was over. Prior to turf toe he was on pace for 222ip through 21 starts (if he pitched 32 starts) 2015 missed 5 starts with an oblique. 32 starts would have put him at 197ip 2014 missed 10 starts concussion rehab blister. 32 starts would have put him at 208ip. He's had TJ and 1 random strain 1 toe issue and 1 freak event. He's returned quickly from everything but TJ. Basically you think he misses at least 8 starts a year? Do you think he kicked a black cat crossing his path into a mirror?

Sorry if this starts a semantics war on TOR again, but I just don't understand how people are undervaluing Archer still. I guess it's looking purely at ERA? Otherwise if you look at just the pitching leaders for the past two seasons (the two that people consider down years for Archer) he still ranks the following amongst qualified MLB starters: 2016 - 2017 MLB Ranks WAR - 9th (7.7) xFIP - 8th (3.38) FIP - 11th (3.60) K/9 - 5th (10.78) Even your more traditional stats are pretty good, ranking 38th with a 4.05 ERA and 34th with a 1.25 WHIP in a tough AL East. At worst, that puts him at a very, very good number 2 pitcher. And these don't even include his previous three "good" seasons where his ERA was in the 3.22 to 3.33 range. I can see the argument for not being an "ace", but he's definitely a top of the rotation arm and would be by far our best pitcher. I really wonder about war xfip and fip in regards to how ungodly inflated they seem to get because of Ks. Scary other stat based truth. Pitch value. Fb- slider - curve - change last 2 years... - bad + good -19... +34.8... +4.3... -4.2 -18.7....+37.5.... NA......-3.7 Chacin vs Archer I think he gets overated due to Ks and gets a lot of value from his 200ip durability. His FB has been losing ground for 3 years and he's abandoned his sinker.

Well that's what it was. You guys need to improve your ability to see the difference between leaks and his added opinion. ;-)

Not true. I like him at 3/45 or so. 5 years which is today's rumor is insane. Yeah I'd totally take a team friendly shorter than acceptable deal for him... and he'd pass that like he passed the cubs 42/3. I mean he had tj and some real flukey injuries so he's injury prone? Come on. Those nagging liners off the head really hinder him. Those concussions are a problem when they add up so he better not take a liner off the head 2-3 more times. Or better not have some rare blood clot issue and need another rib removed? These aren't reoccuring in baseball. Guy has next to no wear and tear on that arm for a 30 year old. Was on pace for 222 ip last year before... oh dear turf toe! Pitched at a 3.25 era through 6 ip without his best pitch. I get everyone gets an opinion but boy howdy its hard to listen to them when their reasoning is faulty, biased and uninformed. I don't get why you feel the need to piss on his value as if the crew gains from it. 60/4 is just fine. 70/5 puts him at 34. He's a sinker 42% curve 22% split/change 36% guy. That's a repertoire of a pitcher who ages well. His velocity was exactly where he left it pre tj and he only throws around 92. On the other hand Arietta lives on his FB. His FB and cutter were the pitches that made him a monster in 14 and 15. The cutter value evaporated in 16... and went bad in 17. The fb deminished massively in 17. That's your safer bet. A dude who lives on his fb who is losing velocity over a guy who couldn't figure out his split change in his 1st year back from tj. I give up man. Arrieta is a disaster waiting to happen. He's run up a ton of work on that arm and its declining. He feasted in 14-15 throwing 75.8% and 79.8% cutter and FB (mostly sinker). In an era where guys are sitting fb he put up back to back seasons of 65.4% and 63.9% fb (almost all sinker)... and his velocity on it went from an average of 94.9 in 14-15 to 2016 94.4 to 2017 92.4. Heavy work load... fb pitcher... declining mph... safer long term? Yeah if cobb wants 5 years laugh and shoot yourself in the crotch with a 5 year deal on Arrieta. That'll show'em!

"Cobb is more likely to be the 2017 version than the 2014 version based on age alone" That's simply untrue. You need to look at how players tend to rehab. Tj shows the biggest jump after the 2nd healthy offseason. Knees in football often take til the 2nd healthy season to get back full explosion. Its very common that the first season back is not their new ceiling but instead new floor. How you can pretend this guy can only go down or stay the same when he navigated last year without his best offering I simply can't understand. Illogical pessimist? Axe to grind? I can't make sense of it. As for replacing Nelson... I'd say he's has the best chance of any pitcher on our staff of pitching 200 ip. Going forward I'd handicap it at a 50/50 toss up with nelson in 2019. He just threw 6.18 per start... missed time and had starts decline in length in his first full year back. 32 starts... on pace for 197. Same as 2013. 2014 he was on pace to get to 205. He missed 3 starts last year. Turf toe for 2. 1 shut down early. Starts around turf toe issues 8 for 33.1 ip. 4.16 ip. Starts before turf toe 21 for 146 ip... 6.95 ip per. Soooo..... through 21 starts was on pace for 222 ip. 3.46 era. Through 6ip... 3.25 era. They probably overworked him. There aren't many deeper than surface numbers that say no on this guy. Turned down 42/3... lets get 60/4 done stearns. We need another horse.

That's why I'm curious about the exact details. Does it include deferred easy to obtain incentives. I dont think its actually 7/3. These are the deals that show how teams can bend cap. I'm watching this one.

Well done by boston. 50/2 60/3 is a solid set up. Didn't do anything crazy.

Andersons last 203 ip was a 2.61 era 37 starts 5.48 ip Ace era... not ace innings (175) but thats a 1 Nelson last 143.2 ip was 3.20 era 23 starts 6.25 ip Not quite ace era... 200 ip pace so thats a 1 Davies starts in each of the last 2 have been brutal. First 3 starts 2016 4 starts 2017 33 ip 31 er 7 starts for a 8.45 era and 4.7 ip per start Then 321.2 ip 133 era 54 starts for a 3.72 era and nearly 6ip per start. Even at 3.93 and 185 ip hes a high ip 45-60 level 2. These 3 absolutely carried the team last year. Cobb even just last year was a 6.18 ip per start. 3.66 era. That beats good Davies who was a 2 despite the rough starts. That is better ip per start than everyone but nelson. I guess I don't see the disconnect where people dont see anderson nelson had long stretches of tor performance last year and davies had a year of top 60 pitching. Do people over estimate the rest of the league because the only issue our staff had was at 4 and 5. Adding cobb makes 4 top 60 capable guys. Its not kershaw Scherzer stuff but that's not getting matched by many teams.