TJseven7

They would free up a lot of payroll flexibility in a year in which they need to, clear up a logjam in the outfield by waiving Kemp, and get at least one worthwhile prospect from LAD. And the Dodgers are scrimping on payroll this year to avoid the luxury tax, which trading Kemp for Braun does for them if I'm not mistaken (pretty sure they're only a few million over). Even if we ate a couple mil on Braun to put them under the tax the money we kick in would be more valuable to them than us. That's another positive. If we ate say 5 mil of this year the gains they get in saved penalties and repeater penalties could be gigantic for them. Them scrimping on payroll benefits us in this situation even more. They dont want to spend and do want to improve. Forces them to dump salary while adding it. Braun Kemp does that. They have a lot of OF... sure. Puig in RF and Taylor, if he keeps it up, can play CF. The other options leave a lot to be desired. Having a lot of OFs doesn't remove the need for quality OFs. Every OF they have has bigger questions attached than Braun does. Kemp is going to be ridiculously hard to move without paying his salary. The consolidated crap made it easier to move 1 junk deal but look around for teams who would want kemp, and have a piece the dodgers want, and at a price that lines up. Stearns pointed to buying power. Eating 6 mil to save the dodgers much much more would allow us to ask for more prospects than most seem to think. They could also trade some of the OF depth for prospects. Joc Hernandez could be flipped.

Artieta has had 2 ace years. 1 year near ace and 2 TOR territory years. I don't worry about the ex cub angle but I do worry about 32-35 and what that 230 ip season did to him. He blossomed into an ace but I think he ages hard and regresses. I dont see him staying healthy enough to throw 200 ip. I don't see him being a 3.0 territory guy again. I could see 180 and 3.3 to 3.6 but that's not his floor in my eyes. That's not far enough ahead of cobb to justify 10 mil extra and I'd rather run with the 30-33 years of cobb. Cobb was becoming a stud at 26 before the injury. Cost him all of 27 and most of 28. Last year looked good but I'm not sure he's was even all the way back from TJ last year. The 2nd full offseason healthy could do him wonders.

Even if Cobb is another Davies its a big addition. He'd be a upper teir #3. In the starters thread in the mlb forum the numbers stated anderson nelson have a chance to 1 or 2s by mlb standards. Not ace but TOR 1-2. Davies cobb chacin all project or have the stats in their history to be in the low 2 or upper 3rd teir. Woodruff is just projectable at this point but that would be a very solid group, and mke could even afford for 1 to flame out. What's the hunch on cobbs value at this point? 60/4?

Um.... Grienke was a bargain last year. I get he's really expensive but he's averaged 5 war and he's coming off a borderline ace level 6 war season. I'd expect the dude to be worth his contract for awhile still. He needs 16 war over the next 4 to be worth it. Again he just put up 6 and he likes it here. I'd absolutely consider taking it off their hands for nothing. Even in years 34-37. If not giving them the arm we got from LAD to grease the wheels. Kemp to a NL team is worth maybe 5 mil total right now. Maybe. He's Chris Carter defense. Sooo... they'd have to be morons. The 15 mil they'd save wouldn't net Arrieta most likely. Grienke to cobb or lynn is a big step down. Unless there's a crystal ball showing Grienke will implode this year. That's just yikes.

Yes, no regression from anderson and a return of Nelson to where he left off would have our rotations fairly close. Then Darvish happened and we got left behind. Twas the reason I was livid!

Not pissing away a pick so he can opt out next year. Just buy a 1 year filler scrub or trade for a 1 year rental on the cheap. Give Woodruff Burnes Nelson (hell suter ortiz) til the trade deadline to show us our true need level. If they pan out offer something stupid to Machado instead. So stupid he'd have to consider it. 35mil stupid. He'd be turning 26.

The dollar value of WAR is determined by the value on the open market (i.e. free agency), not including guys that are cost controlled. The current value is likely a little north of $8 million. I saw estimates going into the offseason that predicted the value per WAR was going to rise to $11 million this year, but I don’t think that is the case based on the signings we’ve seen thus far. Psst... they jumped the gun a year. Its deflated a bit this year cuz next year its going to explode.

Clearly, if a white or lux level prospect isnt coming back with a ticket arm then Stearns is doing Braun a solid and letting him go ring chase. If thats the case I'm pissed at Stearns and I hope we take out the dodgers or they implode 3 years straight. If its eating junk to create surplus value and nets prospects thats wise. If its a 13 mil 2020 book tending, this is cheap and moronic.

The only guys on our team that were bought are braun and cain. Everything else is controlled. The team might be worth 248 mil but that doesn't mean its paid that until it hits the market if its retained its value at that point. Darvish just got a soft deal. He's now 31... will decline in the next 6 years. Has pitched 4.25 years worth of starts for 19.4 war. 4.5 war history... 3.8 war year. 6 years to decline. 3 war guy per year over the life of the contract. In a frugal market. Still roughly 7 mil per war. Where are you getting 4 from? And please don't say todd frazier is the piece that shows the entire market changed because that's just silly.

You're saying if Braun was a FA he wouldnt command 11/3 or even 15/2??? Jd wants 25/5 and you think no one should pay Braun? Not even 15/1 then 10/1 then 7/1? You really believe that? Did you misunderstand what I meant by value? His contract is 56/3. His worth is 32 mil over that span. He's a -24 mil contract... but kemp short of going to an AL team to DH is 43/2 and worth next to nothing. He can't field a position anymore. I dont think there's any way for the Dodgers to get something for him short of eating nearly the full amount, which doesn't make them better in any way. We discussed on here before... stearns mentioned buying power. Well here we are not buying at a still low 90-95 mil. With an overstock in the OF and a depressed market on santana. Time to get creative with that buying power and eating a payroll giants garbage is a clever way to do it. There was whispers about it with Ellsbury. People here wondered about Kemp. I'd say there's at least a tiny bit of smoke in regards to a deal just like this. Just like I was told when I melted down about the cubs getting a sweetheart deal on Darvish. We have to build the best team we can. Not worry about them. Well 2 50 grade prospects replaces some of our yelich loss and we can't worry about helping the dodgers. Our team needs to get better. Getting prospects by synthetically making brauns 56/3 a 13/3 would make this team better and avoid selling santana at the wrong time. No one's taking him at 56/3... but 13/3 is a downright steal. Dodgers can't love what Joc did. Puig is still hard to trust. Taylor could turn into a pumpkin. Makes a ton of sense for them to kick us a solid arm and a ss who's blocked forever by seager to turn kemps ph only junk contract into a good LF who can jump into the mix of seager turner bellinger. He'd be a top 4 bat on that team. I think trading a guy who in the current construction of the team has a questionable fit, and a contract that's at about -24 mil makes a lot of sense. -24 mil is bad. -43 mil is worse... but its also done 1 year sooner. Either rude out -8 mil a year or eat -21.5 mil per year and get something of worth to offset it that could actually be a part of your future. Easy choice.

1b... dodgers.... Bellinger? Was thinking LF with Taylor manning cf and lf on braun rest. Joc was bad.

Cire52 is correct. HH19 doesn't have a twitter account - he has stated so himself. I've deleted the post - and those that followed - to prevent confusion. Forgive me for bringing this up again especially as it is off-topic but it does appear that since you wrote this, Relly, HH19 has indeed joined twitter. Here's a tweet: Well, it's finally here. I have officially joined twitter. There have been fake accounts everywhere including Brewersworld. You can verify this account on http://Brewerfan.net under the section called "Off Topic". You can also verify this account at Al's Ramblings. Stay tuned And indeed in Off Topic HighHeat19 does say the same thing in a thread called HIghHeat19 New twitter account. So, maybe this is finally for real... Yeah I'd guess you are on to something ;-)

Why is this a given as nonsense? 1 OF is likely on the move. While its horribly unlikely its Braun, its also horribly unlikely the Dodgers can do much of anything with Kemp. The dodgers are the only place Braun can go. The dodgers have been interested in Braun before. If you are the dodgers do you want 43 mil spent on trash, or 56 mil over 3 years spent on someone you can use? How many prospects would you be willing to part with for that upgrade? Many here say the Braun to 1b is nonsense. Many have reported the Santana market is cold. What's better? Selling low on Santana or eating crap to make braun a valuable trade piece for the Dodgers? If Braun to 1b is BS 1 has to happen. So its at the very least well thought out nonsense. You're telling me Kemp, Mitchell White and Gavin Lux for Braun is a nonsensical hard no from either side? Who could the Dodger add to improve their OF and who do you trust in their outfield?

Fake rumor. I’m not a Braun lover, but this doesn’t make sense. Both are expensive so no one is saving money. And why are we trading Braun for another overpaid OFer who is worse? I get it, prospects can come back, but that is just dumb. If we don’t want Braun then we really won’t want Kemp. But really, FAAAAAAKE. Stop talking about Braun anything(in my opinion). Well 2 things. 1 braun will only go to LAD so if they dont want braun and want value for braun taking kemp is a good way to extract value from the dodgers. 2 we obviously wouldn't want kemp either... but kemps worthless and can be dealt to anyone who wants him, after we pay the entire contract of course. I could see him fitting pretty well as a AL DH if he only cost them 3 mil for 2 years. Got an asset you don't want that you can't move to 28 teams? Deal him to the 1 team you can and do what you can to maximize the return. Then deal with the slop accordingly. We might just value Braun the asset more than Braun the player. Get the best value you can from the dodgers, who wont flat take his contract into their cap, by eating kemp. If they dont give up enough prospect capitol... no deal yet again. Pretty simple. Kemp = 0 value at a cost of 43 mil Braun = 32 mil value at a cost of 53 mil They owe us 2 prospects in the peralta range. Deal!

1 point for Rollie, that's exactly why Stearns should explore this. Hey folks who are freaking out. THIS! What's the difference between paying 43 mil of the remaining 53mil braun has left on his contract and taking matt kemp? Well you can also pay 40 mil of matt kemps contract and flip him too. Maybe just a lottery ticket but it can be done. How do you make an asset that has low value due to its contract worth something? You pay off the contract or absorb trash. Pros: Kemps deal ends 1 year sooner. Kemps deal is 10 mil cheaper over the life. Cons: Kemps essentially worthless. But the dodgers were wise to consolidate their debt into 1 single piece to move. Braun is worth a lot more than 10 mil over the next 3 years. Even if you take the low end of his last two years averaged. 4.6 war over the last 2 years. So say he declines from 2.3 war. 1.8. 1.3 0.8. Safe to say Brauns worth 3.9 war. Thats 32 mil right? Dodgers send kemp to us for Braun they safely owe us 22 mil in offset value. That's 2 dubon peralta level guys. Would I do that deal? Yeah. No brainer. This could be very smart.

Fantastic stuff Mr Allen. A few points: I've called an ace a pitcher at 200 ip and close to 3 era. I've called a 1TOR over 180 ip and roughly 3.3 era. (Injury time missed forgiven) I was a little critcal on #2TOR. in general, I like your numbers :-) As for zips and our staff. If I'm a talent evaluator who believes in my analytical system the first thing Im doing is checking my values vs the other analytical systems values and finding the people who fall into their blind spot. That's my value stealing opportunities. Anderson and Chacin could be that exact example. Projections on a number of our guys were just flat wrong. The ensuing year those same projections have doubled down on last years pessimism. They could be right. They could be wrong. However, Over his last 200 ip Anderson has been a 2.7 era guy. Last part of 2016 and all of 2017. There was a light switch moment last year for Nelson that was the product of over a year of work on changed mechanics. The alter for anderson was smaller but also created a gigantic improvement that sustained over an offseason and dl stint. If the 2.7 or even 3.0 era holds for Anderson he's a 1 and flirting with ace territory. Nelson is a upper to mid 2 if he can return to last years form. As in the entire body of work. After 5 starts 28.2 ip jimmy was a 5.34 era guy. The joke on a local radio station of the start that saved his season came in start 7. He closed they year out with 51 er over 146.2 ip for a 3.13 era. Thats a 1 flirting with ace level. Davies repeats his numbers and hes top of 3 or bottom of 2 teir. If he can post the era he's had after his 1st 3 starts of 2016 or 1st 4 starts of 2017... aka start the season strong... he is a upper to middle 2. If chacin can repeat his 180ip sub 4 era showing. Career norm era. He's a low 2 top of 3 as well. Woodruff I can make no case to argue zips. Zips has him as a solid 3. I honestly think his projection is too favorable. By these numbers we have a #1(maybe 2), two 2s, and two 3s when Nelson is back if they don't regress. That's pretty strong. With the talk of declining start length it leads to the talk of an 8 man pen. Knebel albers hader jeffress barnes logan ??? Suter With a multi position guy like perez can you afford to go a short bench of vogt, perez, thames, broxton? Or vogt thames sogard perez? Phillips or Broxton being promoted for DL stints.

Yep, you nailed it. I know Colome is a nice piece, but I'd question whether another pen arm is worth the cost. I think you could move Huira to Dubon or Phillips but otherwise that's it.

I don't buy the price difference. Archer is expensive as heck now. Q didn't get a monster offer. Right now plenty of teams would want Archer. Maybe at the deadline fulmer archer stroman are all available and only 8 teams are seriously buying. Will never come cheap, but not sure that the deadline is actually more expensive as of late.

Conclusion 1: you dont like arcia and love adames. Got it. Question 1: if archer costs burnes santana peralta phillips and Burnes is rated over woodruff and phillips over bickford: How do 2 downgraded prospects and arcia get colome adames mccarthy and Ott? Arcia not moving aside, TB doesn't do this. To answer the question. Knebel Colome Hader... drool. But I think trading for relievers is a prospect drain and I'd rather take my chances at the deadline with a scratch and dent swarzak type add for a middling prodpect than aiming for a big fish. Basically... collect arms and if they can't start get them into the pen and turn an burn for farm building. Will Smith and Thornburg trades out should be our MO. Swarzaks should be our buy targets. Buy at something is better than nothing prices, sell controlled arms high. Hopefully williams barnes and houser can continue that train.

If Corbin costs more than 1 of Diplan Ponce or Pennington. Garcia. If not, Corbin. His rental contract is at or a bit below market value. Az has it rumored they want to shed some salary. I'd help them with that at a discount but I see his price tag much closer to swarzak's trade than being considered a part of a Santana deal. An 18-25 ranked ticket arm is the highest I'd go.

Oh yeah, Stroman is a d&mn ace. I don't flinch at his Fip. You could tell a year like last year was only a matter of time and once that time came he'd be a star for years. At 27... I'd pay more for him than Archer and feel comfortable about it.

Traded, not holding my breath. Bench, no. The guy has averaged 125 games started the last 4 years. He's also played through minor injuries in those years. The goal should be to manage him as best as possible to keep wear and tear down on him so that he stays relevent for his 3 years left here. If you take cain yelich and santana on peak start seasons you have 32 games that the 3 didn't start in a year. In career high starts seasons. If you assume there is a 60/40 rhp/lhp starter ratio... 65 games will not be thames at 1b. 97 could be thames at 1b. Dh games 10 is Braun and Thames vs rhp. You are already to 107 starts for Braun with perfect health by all 5 players. 103 starts for Thames. Now you'd want both to get 125 like thames did last year and Braun has averaged over the last 4 years but its not like 107 and 103 is incredibly low for them. 18 short and 22 short. If Braun is hurt as often as last year 107 would be an increase in starts for him. Cain and Santana have missed time often enough to make it likely that the 40 game short coming on braun thames starts could unfortunately correct itself real easy. Difference with this build is that we have an answer for that injury that doesn't include captain kirk or broxton or perez or villar in cf etc. If Braun can man 1b adequately compared to thames and aguilar. The best worst case scenerio is that Braun takes 18 starts from Thames vs rhp. Braun 125, thames 85. Puts thames 40 starts short... boo hoo. There is nearly no time available for Broxton... pr/defensive sub, and Aguilar PH barring a braun injury or dh day vs a lhp.

Absolutely. Johnson and Counsel are keepers for the long term. Like TL and Duncan. I think we will have other pitchers mysteriously pitch above what projections have them at too. Just a feeling. What's mysterious is how these incredibly credible projections have davies and anderson showing up for the worst season of their career this year. Also chacin one of his worst years. Bauer who's never lived up to his fip will surely be better despite never being sub 4. Multiple years of service... never sub 4. I get how small sample size kills guys like pina santana etc. I don't get how you can project a dude with 3-4 years of service to have his worst year ever... when they aren't at an age of decline. Davies has never been over 4. Andersons coming off a brilliant year and a half and he's worse than ever by their numbers. Somethings broke.

Yeah someone sent me a link to fangraphs player pages and im hooked on it for pitchers now. Chacin slider 35% of the time last year. One of the best win values I've ever seen for a pitch. He's going to throw a bunch of them this year and if we are lucky enough to get enough arms to push him to the pen he's our new swarzak. If they can do the mound placement alteration with him like they did anderson he could have a great great season. I'm really happy with this add. Guys a steal at this price tag.

Gets a lot of ground balls, decent number of strikeouts on top of that, 26th out of 110 qualified starters the last three years in soft contact percentage, not as good in hard contact at 42nd but tied for 3rd out of 110 qualified starters the last three years in LD% at 17.9% with Keuchel. For a cheap one year deal or one year plus an option or something? You could do a lot worse. If you like Chacin, you'll probably like Garcia as well and you could probably get him for even less than what Chacin got. Maybe like 1/8 with an option for year 2 at $8 million with a couple million buyout or something. Was literally going to say, cheap, some upside, cheap, and better than TRYING guerra wilkerson suter gallardo at 5. But you said this WAY better. He's cheap and a lefty. Basically I'm ok investing nothing at pitcher long term or prospect wise and our 4-5 are very unproven so I'd like a guy who seems to floor better than Garza who has had a very good year somewhat recently. We need the insurance and who knows maybe lightning in a bottle. If we do nothing and woodruff struggles we are in bad shape. And yes I really like chacin at his price. Garcia gives us 2 shots at a charlie morton surprise and he blocks no one. Sorry suter go be the long man. Also garcia has had his success with his sinking fb and cutter. He scrapped the cutter last year, and in the past 2 he's went from 40-60 fb/sinker to 60/40 fb/sinker. Get him on sinkers and cutters heavily again and he could get back to sub 4. With the numbers twri7 posted I wonder if analytics would try to make him a pitch to contact guy because his best years were low bb years. Nibble less and trust your defense and pitches movement.