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Jopal78

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Everything posted by Jopal78

  1. Jopal78
    There's always an excuse isn't there? Despite being "emptied out" prior to trading for Matt Olson, the Braves somehow still had likely '22 ROY Michael Harris (5.3 war), Vaughn Grissom (0.9 war in 41 games) and Spencer Strider (3.7 war). It's the "veteran for prospect" game. You don't know what you're getting until the minor leaguers actually "make it" in the majors. Sometimes a team will come out ahead but probably 50% of the time they don't work out for the team getting the prospects.
  2. Jopal78
    The Chapman/Olson era ran in Oakland from '18-21 during that time the Athletics won 316 games. By comparison the Brewers won 306 during that time frame. That A's group was a good team but couldn't reach the top of the mountain during their window. Their farm system isn't any different than Milwaukee's in that when you win a lot of games like the A's and Brewers you pick near the bottom of the round where the odds of hitting on a player are less. Also the trades of Olson and Chapman illustrate the dangers of trading quality major leaguers with remaining team control for prospects. They destroyed the major league roster and those prospects they received haven't lived up to their billing yet (Braves #2, #3, #10 and #15)(Toronto's #4, #8 and others). When the Brewers ultimately swap off Woodruff and Burnes they will be heading down a similar path.
  3. Jopal78
    When the Brewers signed Aramis Ramirez in 2012 he was asked why he came to Milwaukee after years of being with rival Chicago, and his response (paraphrased) was.... we play baseball for money, Milwaukee had the most money on the table so here I am. Players go where the money is, if a team has the most money on a table for a particular player they will end up signing that player 90% of the time. Further, given the AAV which Cy Young caliber pitchers get, there are only five or so teams would be bidders at those prices. As for extensions, Musgrove and Castillo aren't really the same caliber of pitcher as Corbin Burnes, Corbin has much better career numbers than either of them already and is significantly better at 27 than either of those two were at that point in their careers. Unless Burnes is particularly scared of getting hurt, there's no reason for him to sign an extension with anyone and leave millions of potential extra dollars on the table as a free agent.
  4. Jopal78
    Well. that's just it.. the Cubs didn't trade away Bryant and Baez to land a #1 starter, they signed Jon Lester as a free agent. Similarly, DeGrom or others would only cost Baltimore money. I'd be all for the Brewers getting a starting pitching prospect who is regarded as amongst the top 5 prospects in the game (plus other players), but for the Orioles it would be sort of counter intuitive to trade someone like that for a pitcher with dwindling control. Also, simply because Baltimore has payroll space, doesn't make it more likely they could hypothetically come to an extension agreement with Burnes as premium players approaching the end of their arbitration years almost universally declare free agency,
  5. Jopal78
    No having a POBO right now allows the team to promote folks if another club came sniffing around trying to poach baseball operations people; the possibility of moving people up one rung on the title ladder is good protection maybe.
  6. Jopal78
    Why would Baltimore want Corbin Burnes if it costs them Grayson Rodriguez and Westburg? With a negative run differential last year (-14), and being in a strong division, adding Burnes wouldn't put them over the top in '23, and Burnes is a free agent in 2 years. With dwindling team control, this prospective trade doesn't make sense for Baltimore; they'd be better off simply rolling with Grayson Rodriguez and Westburg for six years than Burnes for two. Moreover, Seth Johnson hasn't pitched above A-ball and just underwent Tommy John surgery, as a 2019 draftee he will need to be on a 40 man roster before he likely is even healthy again, let alone close to major league ready.
  7. Jopal78
    It was Doug Melvin who originally acquired Corey Knebel in '15, Brandon Woodruff in '14 and Devin Williams in '13, Hader and Houser in '15. In fact, Knebel and Houser already had major league experience before Stearns got to Milwaukee... so depending on your definition of "development" sure. Stearns was a capable GM, made some good moves could with some really good luck, and made some boneheaded moves. For every pitcher "developed" there was a hitting prospect who flamed out. So it goes.
  8. Jopal78
    It was Doug Melvin who originally acquired Corey Knebel in '15, Brandon Woodruff in '14 and Devin Williams in '13, Hader and Houser in '15. In fact, Knebel and Houser already had major league experience before Stearns got to Milwaukee... so depending on your definition of "development" sure. Stearns was a capable GM, made some good moves could with some really good luck, and made some boneheaded moves. For every pitcher "developed" there was a hitting prospect who flamed out. So it goes.
  9. Jopal78
    I think the so-called experts would disagree with you. Payroll isn't everything, sure it lets on cover up mistakes, but Cashman has been plenty successful in all areas of player acquistion. . One example, Cashman signed Severino out of the Dominican for $225,000, He has a bWAR of 13.3 in 638 career innings. Numbers that are quite similar to Brandon Woodruff (bWAR 14.4 in 613 innings). Cashman also signed Robinson Cano, Melky Cabrera, Alfonso Soriano, Gary Sanchez from foreign leagues. Drafted Judge, Nestor Cortes, Mark Melancon, David Robertson, Phil Hughes, Jordan Mongtomery, picked up Aaron Hicks of the scrap heap, Even if you want to knock him for having a huge payroll, The Angels have a huge payroll and two superstars and struggle to win 81 games annually. Phillies, Mets have also struggled despite having huge payroll, so despite finances the person in control still has to make the right deals.
  10. Jopal78
    Finally, getting somewhere with "FAR better than just competent" but yet still nowhere. Whatever... take out your dictionary and look up the definition of competent, heck check out the synonyms for competent in your thesaurus. The facts are you disagree with my adjective "competent" yet haven't said I'm wrong that there is a class of executives better than Stearns and a class that is obviously worse. I really don't care if it's prospect talent or rankings. Maybe you live in Tennessee or Mississippi, but if not I'm willing to bet neither of us has seen any Brewer minor leaguers actually play more than a handful of games, if that. As such, neither one of us have any first hand knowledge of talent but its circumstantial evidence.. draft position, stat sheets, articles, age vs. level of play etc. that leads one to draw conclusions about talent. Nothing wrong with it, I just doesn't mean anything to me. I'll draw my conclusions when the the person proves themselves at the major league level.
  11. Jopal78
    The Brewers have already used two of Feliciano's three options, its now or never time. He was a prospect of some renown at one point, but who knows-- it sort of seems like the club sees Feliciano as merely organizational depth.
  12. Jopal78
    I guess I'm not the only one: Leibling 10:32 Who will be the Brewers' most surprising non-tender? Darragh McDonald 10:32 I think Renfroe is a possibility. 10:35 He had a really good year, but $11MM for a guy who mostly provides power is a decent amount for a team that doesn't run huge payrolls. Train 10:44 How would you rank the possibilities of these Brewers trading these players ? Renfroe, Rowdy, Keston, Houser, Burnes, Woody. Darragh McDonald 10:44 I would guess in that order, but with Woody and Burnes flipped. https://www.jotcast.com/chat/brewers-offseason-chat-14231.html
  13. Jopal78
    Here's the problem with your post. You say it's a silly understatement to call him competent, but not why? Fact is in an era where maybe 15 teams are trying to compete, he typically had his squads in competition. However, he never made it to the top of the mountain in the NL. With Tampa, Cleveland and Oakland all winning a lot of games at the same time, you can't really say he was the best at getting more out of less payroll. Would I rather have had Stearns than say Dick Williams, Jeff Bridich, and Neil Huntington... hell yes. But there is another tier of GMs above Stearns, so I guess you call him competent: mostly met but did not exceed expectations. We can disagree on prospects. I've been around too long to put much stock in prospect rankings and minor league stats.
  14. Jopal78
    So what is it that you're saying? I said he was a competent, he made some nice moves, but also made his share of mistakes, and wasn't among the very best executives in the game (Friedmann, Cashman, Beane, Antonetti, Mozeliak) If you want to give them credit for overhauling the way they develop pitching, then they also have to own the fact Stearns was incapable of developing an everyday regular position player during his tenure. The farm system ratings don't mean much to me, they're a sportswriters opinion of a snap shot in time. I'd also beg to differ as the Brewers system was plenty loaded in 2007: Gallardo, Braun, Cain, Michael Brantley and Jeffress I've got $50 that says the Brewers don't have five future all-stars in their system right now two of whom will play 14 years in the majors and two more who will have 10+ year careers.
  15. Jopal78
    The theory of getting some compensation is dumb. A hall of fame GM in Theo Epstein technically required some compensation to come to Chicago: - Chris Carpenter a 26 year old minor league reliever who pitched a total of 15 awful innings in the majors. On a site where prospects are king, I get it. But the reality is the "compensation" is more of a contractual formality/courtesy for allowing someone to leave early.
  16. Jopal78
    Doug Melvin traded Carlos Gomez. For what it's worth the Lucroy trade was kind of a bust, he was fortunate in swapping off all the players he got for Lucroy because ultimately none of them amounted to anything in the majors. I think the bar is set kind of low in Milwaukee given the futility from the mid 80s through the mid 00's. Stearns was a competent GM but not amongst the best in the game. His best moves were getting Thames from Korea, picking up Jesus Aguilar, drafting Corbin Burnes in the 4th round, Drew Rasmussen in the 6th and trading for Yelich and Peralta. He also made several poor moves: drafting Corey Ray 5th overall, trading away Hader, trading away Ji-Man Choi for a player who they release a month later, trading away Will Smith for nothing, signing Josh Lindblom, signing McCutchen. Trading Jean Segura for Chase Anderson, Aaron Hill and Isan Diaz is a tweener. Hopefully, Matt Arnold is at least as good if not better.
  17. Jopal78
    Ha. Well you did suggest the Brewers hire Luhnow who was suspended from baseball for cheating, so I guess anything goes in your world view.
  18. Jopal78
    I don't think the Mets have anything to do with it. Stearns has been in control 8 years and likely has taken this group as far as they're going to go. Given the economics of the game, there is a rebuild of some degree on the horizon in Milwaukee, and I would imagine Stearns feels he has already done all he can for the Brewers. Look at Epstein with the Cubs: he built it up and when the rebuild was knocking he felt he had done all he could and rode off into the sunset. Same deal with Stearns, IMO.
  19. Jopal78
    Don't hold your breath that the next front office group will do better in developing certain types of players. Doug Melvin developed one starting pitcher during his tenure, and I'll credit him for drafting Woodruff, but otherwise it was all hitters on his watch with multiple first round busts on the pitching side: Mark Rogers, Jeffress, Even Frederickson, Eric Arnett, Kyle Heckathorn, Dylan Covey, Taylor Jungmann, Jed Bradley, and Kodi Medeiros. That's just the way it goes some GMs are luckier than others in developing certain types of players. However, Arnold may not share, to the same extent as Stearns, the up the middle roster building philosophy and we fans may be in store for a huge roster shakeup.
  20. Jopal78
    Sometimes one has to look beyond the metrics. Narvaez had two stints on the IL in '22 and '21. But for the first 81 games of the '21 season he was wholly inept offensively as a Brewer (a sub .600 OPS). I think he will get a guaranteed contract for 2023, but only because the free agent options at catcher are thin. I wouldn't be surprised if the Brewers move on from both Narvaez and Caratini in '23 (keep in mind the Padres--already in the luxury tax--sent some cash along to Milwaukee to move Caratini's 2 million dollar contract).
  21. Jopal78
    I would argue the opposite, there might be big swaths of land in Wisconsin and parts of the UP that are the Brewers "media market" but outside of Madison, Green Bay its all small towns (under 75,000 and in most cases less than that). The Brewers are in a crappy market with no real room for growth as they're penned in by Minnesota to the Northwest, The Cubs to the South and Southwest, The White Sox to the South, and Detroit to the East.
  22. Jopal78
    Not to mention the much esteemed Trade Simulator website indicates that value wise the Brewers would be giving up more talent than the Rockies with just Tyrone Taylor for McMahon and not even including the three other players. Stearns better check his work before agreeing to that one!?
  23. Jopal78
    Caratini is a free agent after ‘23
  24. Jopal78
    Not a bad idea to do a tear down, but there would be more than growing pains; that team doesn’t win 75 games. Walker Buehler is going to miss most if not all of ‘23 and is a free agent after ‘24.
  25. Jopal78
    Like I said see Bickford and Susac.
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