RollieTime

Problem is the Brewers then have perhaps the weakest defensive infield in MLB. Who plays third in 2021? The pen is extremely weakened for 2020 and no money to add a starting pitcher. Gray is a year or two away. It's like you're throwing 2020 away and banking on Turner's and Braun's salaries coming off the books for 2021. In this scenario though - aren't you basically replacing Grandal's one year salary with Turner's? I think the original idea then included re-signing Moose and either playing Moose or Turner at 1B next year (not sure if that's a viable option though?) - and then not picking up Thames's option. So, in the grand scheme of things you might actually save a bit of money - if you look at Turner replacing both Grandal and Thames's contracts? Again though - a lot of moving parts there, and I think this is one of those trade ideas that is fun to think about in our own "fantasy land," but probably not one that would actually ever happen. Yes that’s exactly what I’m thinking. Turner replaces Grandal (similar finances) and letting Thames, Shaw, and Nelson walk lets you easily bring back Moose. That doesn’t include Perez being gone, Chacin’s contract coming off, or other players they could move on from like Guerra (another bullpen option) and Anderson. There would still be plenty of money left over to sign a starting pitcher.

Problem is the Brewers then have perhaps the weakest defensive infield in MLB. Who plays third in 2021? The pen is extremely weakened for 2020 and no money to add a starting pitcher. Gray is a year or two away. It's like you're throwing 2020 away and banking on Turner's and Braun's salaries coming off the books for 2021. I mentioned above that Moose would sign to stay with us and play first this season. He would switch back to third next season. The pen would definitely take a blow, but Knebel would be back, Suter looks like a weapon out there, I’m banking on Pomeranz coming back, Wahl is a good option, possibly a bounce back season from Burnes, Nate Griep and Luke Barker look legit and could be great options in 2020 at some point, plus you mix in Devin Williams, Ray Black, and Alex Claudio. I think the Brewers would be fine.

I don’t think the trade is that far off. Turner is owed $20 million so it’s not like it’s an insignificant amount financially. Plus he only has 1 year left on his deal. Breaking it down, you could look at it like Freddy Peralta and Brice Turang for Justin Turner and Josiah Gray. I would say we are giving up too much in the first part of the trade. Josh Hader for Gavin Lux and Will Smith is the other part of the trade. Turang is included knowing that Lux is coming over in part of the trade, helping balance the two parts of the trade out. The Dodgers are getting a young starting pitcher with multiple years of control left. Plus the Brewers’ top prospect at a premium position that’s a couple years away. Turang is only included because Lux is part of the deal coming back to the Brewers. Hader for Lux and Smith might be steep, but again the Dodgers are feeling the pressure to win. Arguably the top reliever in the game with 4 years of well below market value for his services being moved in a trade is literally unheard of. A trade like that hasn’t happened before. Stearns holds all the leverage as well. And look at what Chapman got for half a season. Do I think it’s a steep price and one that favors the Brewers? Yes. Do I think it’s realistic and would accomplish what both teams are interested in doing this offseason? Also yes. Dodgers get their guy at third for the foreseeable future, clear money to make that move possible in the first place, and get the best reliever in the game. Brewers get a couple young impact bats for 6 years at two positions where they have no decent options plus a good veteran bat for one year on an expensive contract at a position where they have no other option currently. Turner doesn’t hold a ton of value himself as a 35 year old making $20 million for one year.

If they are interested in Rendon, I would think they would look to move some money to make some room for him on the roster. The Dodgers could be our one stop shop for the offseason. Brewers receive: 3B Justin Turner (1/$20 million remaining) SS/2B Gavin Lux C Will Smith RHP Josiah Gray Dodgers receive: LHP Josh Hader RHP Freddy Peralta SS Brice Turang The Brewers take on Turner and all of his contract. They can sign Moose and move him to 1B for 2020 with Turner at 3rd. Thames’ option is not picked up. Lux is the opening day SS for Milwaukee. CF Cain 2B Hiura RF Yelich 3B Turner 1B Moustakas LF Braun SS Lux C Smith P Nice balance of lefties and righties without any holes anywhere 1-8. Moving Hader, declining Thames’ option, and non-tendering Shaw saves approximately $15 million. Most of that is used to retain Moose and Grandal’s contract is replaced with Turner on a one year deal. Then next offseason, Turner and Braun’s contracts come off, leaving a ton of room for moves next offseason.

This was the smart move. Love Perez as a person and what he brings to the clubhouse, but he just didn’t provide enough value. His performance has steadily declined the last 3 seasons. Sad to say, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he doesn’t even catch on with another team. Maybe somebody like the Royals or Orioles give him a shot, but I don’t think there’s any untapped potential left where teams will have much interest. He is what he is. A versatile defender with an impatient, below average bat with little pop.

I agree. Look at the Chapman trade. I would love to see the surplus value of that trade. Top flight relievers are extremely valuable. One controlled for 4 seasons being traded is unheard of. If Stearns doesn’t get what he likes, move on. He holds all the power in negotiations. I would target Lux, C Will Smith, and RHP Josiah Gray. Brewers could send a sweetener like Freddy Peralta back in this move and I would be fine with it. You get your shortstop and catcher for 6 years while adding a good looking young starting pitcher prospect.

The Opening Day Payroll for 2019 was $122.5 million. The season ending payroll that I could find was roughly $128.6 million. Position Players LF Ryan Braun $17 million CF Lorenzo Cain $16 million RF Christian Yelich $12.5 million 3B Mike Moustakas $13 million (3/$39 million contract) SS Jose Iglesias $5 million (2/$10 million contract) 2B Keston Hiura ~ $500K 1B Howie Kendrick $5 million (1/$5 million contract) C Manny Pina $1.8 million 2B/SS Cory Spangenberg $1.5 million 1B Eric Thames $5 million (1/$5 million contract) OF Trent Grisham ~ $500K C Martin Maldonado $3 million (2/$6 million contract) 2B/3B Jedd Gyorko $1 million (1/$1 million contract with incentives) ~ $81.8 million Starting Pitchers Gerrit Cole $30 million (8/$240 million contract) Brandon Woodruff ~ $500K Jordan Lyles $3 million (1/$3 million contract) Gio Gonzalez $2 million (1/$2 million contract) Adrian Houser ~ $500K ~ $36 million Bullpen Josh Hader $5 million Corey Knebel $5.2 million Drew Pomeranz $5 million (2/$10 million contract) Alex Claudio $2 million Brent Suter $1 million Bobby Wahl ~ $500K Freddy Peralta ~ $500K Jake Faria ~ $500K ~ $19.7 million Other options/begin the season in the minors Ray Black Devin Williams Corbin Burnes Total Opening Day Payroll: $137.5 million Anderson, Nelson, Perez, Shaw, Guerra, Saladino, Austin, Thames, and Arcia would be non-tendered. Thames will be brought back on a slightly lower contract than the team option. It’s too risky holding onto guys like Shaw, Nelson, and Arcia hoping for them to produce. We have 3 years of Yelich left and need to start putting the best team on the field without putting roughly $11 million into those three hoping for rebound seasons. Perez is too expensive for what he provides, Guerra is solid, but the money can be spent better elsewhere. I want to reduce risk and increase the floor of the entire roster and I think this roster construction would do that. I would trade Ben Gamel and have Trent Grisham and Howie Kendrick as the backup outfielders. Zach Davies will also be moved and should bring back a couple decent prospects since he has shown to be a mid rotation starter and has two years of control left. I’m interested in moving him for salary relief and because he will be pretty expensive in his final year of arbitration next season. I’m a Davies fan, but I think moving him and recouping some solid prospects while getting some salary relief is big. The rotation being led by Cole and Woodruff will give the Brewers a great duo at the top of the rotation and allow the bullpen to get rested up when those two take the mound. Pomeranz, Suter, Peralta, and Faria could be inserted into the rotation as needed during the season as injuries arise. Burnes is waiting in the wings in the minors as well. I also expect Stearns to bring in an experienced arm or two on minor league deals as depth for the rotation. Maldonado is Cole’s personal catcher in Houston currently and will be brought in to continue their success together with the Brewers. Maldonado and Pina can split time, keeping both fresh all season long. Iglesias is brought in to significantly raise the floor of the offensive production at SS while also providing solid defense. Howie Kendrick is brought in as nearly a career .300 hitter that hits from the right side while hitting both lefties and righties well. There would be plenty of at bats to go around during the season with Kendrick and Braun needing their off days, allowing Thames and Grisham to get 300+ at bats pinch hitting, DH’ing, and filling in for injuries and on off days. Hader being arby eligible really threw a wrench on the offseason plans in my opinion. I was hoping to get the payroll to around $130 million for opening day for this exercise, but Hader being arby eligible made it much more difficult. I think $137.5 is a little high for where they would feel comfortable entering the season, but maybe Attanasio will be okay with it if Cole is able to be brought in. It would only be roughly a $9 million payroll increase from the 2019 season. Not bringing back Thames is one option they could explore to drop the payroll to around $132 in this scenario. Which I think is definitely a reasonable number for the Brewers. It’s also important to note that there will be $13 million coming off the books when Braun is off the books after 2020, already factoring in his buyout. That will provide a little breathing room at the top of the payroll for guys entering arby and offseason moves down the road when Thames (if retained), Kendrick, Lyles, and Gonzalez also come off the books, freeing up around $28 million between all of them. I also personally feel that this will be Hader’s last season with Milwaukee if he isn’t traded this offseason as he will start to become way too expensive as a bullpen piece for the Brewers to keep on the roster. If he puts up another fantastic season, it wouldn’t shock me to see his contract next season around $10 million. It will only continue to go up from there. Vs Right Handed Starter CF Cain LF Kendrick RF Yelich 2B Hiura 3B Moose 1B Thames SS Iglesias/Spangenberg C Pina P Vs Left Handed Starter CF Cain 1B Kendrick RF Yelich 2B Hiura LF Braun 3B Moose SS Iglesias C Pina P I really like the depth of the position players and bringing in arguably the top starting pitcher in the game. The bullpen will be a strength from Opening Day with the starting staff having plenty of depth to overcome some injuries to the starting 5. With Cole and Woodruff leading the rotation, the Brewers will be able to give the bullpen some much needed rest when those 2 take the mound, allowing Counsell to use his best bullpen arms when the other 3 guys toe the rubber and be able to pull them before going through the order for a third time. The time is now to go all in to win a World Series with Yelich on a very team friendly deal, Hiura and Woodruff making the minimum, and having the best reliever in the game. I truly do think Stearns is going to do something big this offseason knowing that our realistic window for a championship is 3 years (the Yelich window). Bring in Cole on a massive deal, giving him an opt out after 3 and 5 years. If he opts out, it means he pitched fantastic for us and we had him during our championship window with Yelich. I usually don’t like opt outs because all of the risk is on the team, but I would do it for Cole. Also, if he continues to pitch well, but opts in to the contract, we could trade him when he has 2 or 3 years left on the deal similar to Greinke. Your 2020 World Series Champion Milwaukee Brewers!!

Fair enough. I don’t agree with the rule, but that makes sense. Thank you for explaining it.

Where do you draw the line though? If a cornerback sees the pass going the other way, just light up the receiver since he’s away from the play. I agree it didn’t interfere with the outcome of the play exactly, but to me it looked like he was being held well before the pass was thrown. Which Kelce would obviously not get the throw since the defender was literally all over him, leading to Mahomes throwing to a different guy. I just think that if cornerbacks want to start being much more aggressive after the ball is thrown, they definitely could if that is how the game is officiated. Maybe it was the proper call to a point, but I feel that Kelce was held well before the throw. I don’t see how there could be a no call in that entire sequence.

Once again, in the Texans and Chiefs game, a Houston CB started tackling the Chiefs’ receiver wayyy before the ball was there. But somehow, pass interference wasn’t called even after the review. And now 2 plays later after the Chiefs punted, the Chiefs’ CB got called for pass interference with way less contact. I know I’m beating a dead horse, but this is completely asinine. Goodell is completely ruining the NFL. And that doesn’t include a flag that they somehow picked up on a third down when Kelce was held when Mahomes still had the ball and was then thrown to the ground when the ball was in the air, but the ball was thrown to a different receiver. The pass was intercepted. They then reviewed the penalty, decided to pick up the flag, and said that there can’t be holding since the ball was supposedly already thrown and the ball wasn’t thrown to Kelce. Pass interference was also not called. I haven’t read through the NFL rules, but I’ve never heard that you can’t call holding on a play just because the ball wasn’t thrown to that receiver. These refs are completely making up rules as they go along. Looks like there can no longer be holding called on a play on a CB as long as that receiver isn’t the intended target. Just start throwing guys to the ground to take them out of the play.

Also, Molina had a bat flip to end all bat flips. Moron. https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/10/nlds-cardinals-braves-yadier-molina-epic-bat-flip I thought of this exact scenario. Cardinals have their own double standard on things. It’s only disrespectful if it’s against them. I can only imagine the postgame comments from the Cardinals’ clubhouse if someone else were to do that after beating them.

What was the Brewers’ Opening Day payroll and end of season payroll? The number I found was $122.5 million for Opening Day, but I’m not sure if that is accurate and I couldn’t find anything for the season ending payroll. I just want to have an idea of what to go off of while finalizing what I’m hoping the Brewers do for their Opening Day Roster. Thanks in advance!

I wonder when the Yankees will start to take heat for their name since it was a derogatory term intentionally created to refer to a certain group of people in a negative way. It still can be used as an insult to Americans and/or specifically northerners today. But I’m guessing since they are one of the most “historic” franchises in all sports, there’s no way people will raise a stink about them. But also a lot of people don’t see how a “non-minority” could possibly be offended by anything. So I’m guessing there won’t be much of an issue for the Yankees franchise, but they should take just as much heat as any franchise since the word “yankee” always has been a derogatory term.

Seager has 2 years of control left while Hader still has 4 years. I’m guessing that’s why Hader’s value is significantly higher.

Dodgers just as easily can go out and drop $15 million per year on the top reliever on the FA market this offseason. Money is no object to that team. If they deal off high value players for Hader, it's because they see him as significantly better than anything they can acquire with only money. The difference there though is Hader is the cream of the crop for relief pitchers. They could sign a great free agent reliever and still not get a guy as productive and shutdown as Hader. I do understand your point though. That definitely is an option they could explore and I’m sure they will.

Todd Frazier? He was basically average this year. But he might dent the bank. Otherwise yeah, I’m not sure...[sarcasm]maybe Braun?[/sarcasm] That is where it gets dicey for me. If you are going to be stuck with an .850 OPS guy and a black hole...just sign the cheaper/less risky .850 OPS guy. Grandal - $17mil .848 OPS Frazier - $7mil .772 OPS Pina - $2mil $26million Moustakas $12mil .845 OPS Travis d'Arnaud/Jason Castro C - $7mil .782/.767 OPS Pina - $2mil $21million Similar production, less money, less commitment, Pina isn't the starter, and less risky. If you roll with Pina as the starter it would be nearly $10mil cheaper to just go with Moustakas. We could also go after Robinson Chirinos, but I fear he will get enough interest the cost/commitment may just make it too risky. I like the catchers market this year, quite a few solid offensive guys after Grandal looking at it. Grandal is king, but I think the value is definitely elsewhere. This is where I am. Sign a second tier catcher, bring back Moose, and have plenty left over to go out and get an upgrade at SS or in the rotation or possibly both.

I think the Brewers should hold out and demand Lux otherwise no deal. Dodgers will be desperate if they lose once again this year. I think if you play your cards right, you can pry someone like Lux from them. They don’t need him in their lineup right now like they need a shut down reliever. Plus they can just go out and drop $15 million on a SS or 2B to replace him at the drop of a hat.

My issue is that Hader clearly didn’t have it and was left in which led to us blowing the game. It was obvious from the first few pitches that he didn’t have it. I know he’s “the guy”, but that really shouldn’t matter. What matters is if a guy clearly doesn’t have it, regardless of who he is, he needs to be pulled. Maybe not in the regular season, but in a one game playoff it needs to happen. No excuses for how long he was left in and had no idea where his pitches were going. Just guessing here, but 30 pitches, 14 strikes. How many pitches were outside the zone and guys still swung? Hader probably threw something like 9 or 10 strikes. For a guy that tends to pound the zone, he was clearly off. I think Hader is fantastic and I really did not have an issue with him coming in for 2 innings. I thought it was the right move at the time and agree with the decision. But when a guy doesn’t have it, man, you gotta get him out of there. If somebody is off, you need to have a quick hook in the playoffs. Especially a winner take all game. Lyles should of been getting warm after the second batter of the inning in my opinion. It was very obvious how wild Hader was.

If there is any team that would cough up quite a haul to get Hader, it would be the Dodgers in my opinion. I was one of the few that was seriously entertaining it at the deadline, but I still believe that if the Dodgers fall short again this season, they will go all out to try to win a ring. They have fallen short time after time and the fans and organization as a whole I think are getting a little antsy to make it happen. Hopefully the Dodgers fall short of the title and come looking our way and we can absolutely raid them. If there is one weakness in that Dodgers team, it’s their bullpen. They still lack that shut down guy and it wouldn’t surprise me if they come calling. I believe they were in on Vázquez of the Pirates around the deadline, but that didn’t exactly work out for anyone involved...

Gotta say, that was exactly what I said after the first pitch from Hader. And after his second pitch, I said “he doesn’t have it tonight”. Truly a disappointing finish, but glad to have the opportunity to play in the Wild Card Game instead of not being in the playoffs at all.

Uhh ohh, looks like Braun may have tweaked his back after hitting the wall.... He was jogging off like something was bothering him...

Definitely surprised Grisham is starting since he is 1-25 recently. Maybe Gamel will be the first guy to pinch hit and then left in the game to replace Grisham?

Really hoping we can jump out to an early lead to put the pressure on the Nats right away. Even if it’s just a one or two run lead, the pressure will build after every single out and the Nats will really start to feel it in the 4th or 5th inning.

All it takes is a walk and a long ball. Anything can happen in these games. Braun, Hiura, Grandal, Moose, Thames can take one deep in any at bat. Anything can happen. Big question is do you start Gamel or Grisham? I would go with Gamel for defense purposes, his experience, and since Grisham is 1-25 in his last handful of games.

Corbin would be pitching on 2 days rest after throwing 94 pitches just 3 days ago. He might pitch in this game, but I don’t see it being any more than a couple innings at the most. Bringing him in on very short rest, in a role he’s not familiar with (pitching in a meaningful game on short rest after throwing 100 pitches) is extremely risky for the Nationals. I don’t think we will see him pitch unless it’s in extra innings since they have Scherzer and Strasburg to get through 8 and Doolittle for the 9th. If the Brewers get to one of the other two starters and get a lead, I don’t see why they would bring in Corbin anyway. I think he’s active, but very unlikely to appear in the game unless it goes into extras.