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Ron Robinsons Beard

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Everything posted by Ron Robinsons Beard

  1. That right there is why the "is Christian Yelich the new Chris Davis" was a stupid argument. Even when he isn't hitting home runs, Yelich brings many more baseball attributes to the table. Davis does not.
  2. That team has been a dumpster fire for a while now. That's what they'll continue to be until they prove otherwise. And it ain't happening this year.
  3. LOL, I think this is the first time I've seen a player move as oxymoronic.
  4. If you think Fry & Wilson will only fill bench roles, why rank them higher than Mitchell & Small who you think will both be good? In the case of Fry, it's a very plus bat that plays well at catcher in addition to the other positions. I could see him forcing his way onto the 26-man at the start of 2022. Wilson has Hernan Perez's versatility with OBP skills and is a contender for the 2022 26-man roster, also at the start of the season. Mitchell, I think, has a 2023 ETA, and Small will probably come up mid-season 2022. They have higher ceilings than Fry and Wilson, but the latter two could contribute from the start of 2022. Honestly, I think Wilson would be a decent call up NOW. I've liked Fry and Wilson for a long time. A shorter ETA is not justification for ranking them higher. The ranking should be about their ceiling, shouldn't it? Can't you just admit that you enjoy being contrarian simply for the sake of being contrarian?
  5. We currently have a 26-year-old 1B with a 1.014 OPS and multiple years of cheap control. Not saying that Rowdy Tellez is definitely the cure to the team's longtime 1B issues, but it is certainly worth seeing what we have in him before giving up the farm for someone like Olson.
  6. While this is pretty much exactly what happened, I am far from Nostradamus. This is been the Brewers' recipe for success in low-scoring games all season.
  7. So the Brewers beat the Cardinals, which reading some other threads sounded like something that was difficult to impossible. At the same time, the Reds lost to a depleted Cubs team, which a few of those same posters also indicated was impossible. Sounds like a good night to me!
  8. Jackson is Exhibit A of the idea that sometimes the guy who seemingly falls in the draft and who everyone wants is not always the best choice. He was a guy that dominated Big 10 receivers for one season, but was found out pretty early as a pro.
  9. The few times we saw Bickford pitch here, he was throwing fastballs with little movement in the upper 80s to low 90s. There was literally nothing he was doing that indicated that he'd ever be anything more than a replaceable, dime-a-dozen reliever. I don't fault the Brewers at all for finally dumping him after sticking by him through all his off-field issues over the years. Perhaps he's found something with the Dodgers ... who knows. I do know, though, that relievers who don't bring much special to the table rarely last long.
  10. Or, you know, they could lose to the Cubs 24 hours after you posted this ... LOL Its baseball. There are very few absolutes.
  11. Don't expect a lot of scoring in tonight's game. Wainwright (even this older, junkballing version of him) has pretty much always had the Brewers' number. Recipe for success is going to be to hope to push a few runs across early, then hope Burnes is on his game.
  12. I don’t know why citing past situations in which the Brewers and other teams have blown leads is interpreted as indicating that I think there is a “strong probability” that the Brewers are going to blow the lead, or that I expect them to blow it. To me, a “strong probability” would be at least 50% or more, and I am nowhere near that. As I’ve said, 90-95% probabilities are nice, but they aren’t guarantees of a desired result. My general attitude is that it isn’t over until it’s over, and that it currently isn’t over. The responses on this thread tell me that I am not alone in feeling this way. I also admitted above to being a little skeptical about these probabilities because they are attempting to apply mathematical calculations to something that has a significant human element. Once things go sour for a team the probabilities based on past performance and treating every game as an independent event can go out the window. For example, the Fangraphs charts show that the Padres had a playoff probability in the 95% range for much of late June through late July. Was that wild card race “statistically over”? Now just a few weeks later that probability is below 60%. It just shows how quickly these things can change. That is a fair and completely reasonable response. You are correct that those probabilities do take trends into account. If the Brewers were to suddenly drop 10 straight, those numbers would change drastically. Perhaps it is in the way you post that was perhaps causing me to read a little more into your posts than what you were truly trying to say. I think you tend to be on the more pessimistic/worst case side of the spectrum around here, so when I read your thoughts, I automatically assumed that you were almost expecting to Brewers to wilt down the stretch. I apologize if I took it out of context.
  13. There's a difference, though, between holding off on declaring the game "statistically over" and outwardly believing they are going to blow it regardless of the statistical improbability of that happening. I think that's the summation of the opinion difference here, isn't it? I think there are several posters here that believe that the Brewers are going to win the division, and are using those probabilities to back up their claim. You seem to believe that there is a strong probability that they are going to blow their big mid-August lead to either the Reds or Cardinals, regardless of what the probabilities indicate. In essence, it's the difference between a "glass is half full" fan and a "glass is half empty" fan. In the end, neither side is really right or wrong. However, when you post that "glass is half empty" philosophy on a page called "Brewerfan.net" filled with a ton of eternal optimists, it isn't surprising, to me at least, that there is considerable pushback on the pessimism.
  14. I totally get where you are coming from. I'm a former lifeguard and summer camp aquatics director, and I cannot stress enough the importance of getting kids into swimming lessons. Because I've seen plenty of near drownings, and assisted in the aftermath of a drowning death. It is excruciating for everyone involved. I cannot imagine what it is like on a parent. My 12, 10 and 8-year olds are all very strong swimmers, and we regularly have my 6 and 4-year-olds in lessons. But we live in an area of northern Wisconsin where there is a lake around every corner, and we have a large pond less than 100 yards behind our house. It's always been a priority for us to make sure the kids are comfortable around and can navigate the water. Sure, odds are that if your kids are never strong swimmers, they likely will not be involved in a drowning incident. They are rare. But all it takes is one time. I urge you to continue to take the necessary precautions to avoid it by getting those kids swimming. Good work having them in lessons so far. You don't happen to have some degree of OCD, do you? 5 kids all spaced exactly 2 years apart is quite remarkable!! And congrats! 3 is more than enough for me, lol. Thanks for your feedback as an aquatics director. We'll keep on getting them in lessons. Ha ... maybe a little. Not quite two years apart, though. May, March, November, February and April birthdays.
  15. They won't ... and shouldn't. Go take a look at the first few outings Pomeranz had for the Brewers if you want proof why they shouldn't. Pomeranz was a lot better his first few outings. He fanned 5 in his first 2 innings, both scoreless. His third appearance was a 3 inning start. Only hit he allowed was a HR, but he fanned 3 and Brewers won the game easily. In the appearance he allowed 2 runs, they scored when Hader gave up a 3 run HR. Brewers should DFA him now. He's getting worse with every appearance. He can't be trusted in high leverage situations. So why keep him? If you like him for next year, he'll be available on a minor league deal. Pomeranz was a much more accomplished pitcher with winning teams. I consider "a few" to be 5-6 outings. Pomeranz gave up a run in 2/3 of an inning against the Rangers on Aug. 10, then a couple more against the Rangers in 1/3 of an inning on Aug. 13 following that run he gave up in his spot start. Then he went into ace reliever mode basically through the end of the season. Norris isn't real far off that trajectory right now. He has a good arm, and I expect them to give him several more chances. He was very good for the Tigers from July 10 through the trade deadline. If he falters, you move on. Eventually. Not after less than 6 innings total.
  16. That right there is why baseball is still an awesome game. I grew up watching that movie, and MLB actually did a terrific job of incorporating it into a modern day game. Having the players from both teams come out of the corn field before the game and greet Kevin Costner in their throwback unis was so incredibly hokey and awesome at the same time. And that ending? Phenomenal! Really well done, MLB. Really well done!
  17. He'll have runs where his is good again, but i doubt it will ever be sustained.
  18. They won't ... and shouldn't. Go take a look at the first few outings Pomeranz had for the Brewers if you want proof why they shouldn't.
  19. Willy Adames seems to bring all of Arcia's flair and enthusiasm/clubhouse presence, and then some, without the terrible lack of plate discipline and other assorted brain farts.
  20. I'm shocked that someone with a .937 fielding percentage at third this year is above average. He's not Ryan Braun bad but he makes a ton of errors. At 3rd? I thought the vast majority of his errors this year were as a SS?
  21. Good thing Burnes went 8 last night, and it was mopped up by a guy they optioned today. Pen is in pretty nice shape.
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