Unless you are, in fact, David Stearns, there is no way you know this. You are speculating, based on the rough go a guy has had coming off a major surgery. Honestly, I have no idea what the future is for Nelson. But if the Brewers have stuck with him this long, it certainly wouldn't surprise me to see them bring him back next year. It’s logic. He’s making 3.7 million this year. If tendered, Nelson will certainly file for a raise with the arbitrator; and it’s unlikely he settles for a pay cut. So they’d be looking at paying 5 million dollars or so for a middle reliever with poor major league stats post injury. There are better relief pitchers that could be had for 5 million than Nelson. With one year of control remaining and a handful of young arms on the roster plus a Anderson and Davies he’s not a good bet for the rotation either. That isn't logic, though. It's pessimism. Stating that Nelson's ceiling is "looking at paying 5 million dollars or so for a middle reliever with poor major league stats post injury" is 100% a pessimistic, glass half empty view. Which is fine ... but I would hope that the powers that be have a little more optimism. Is there a chance that your prediction comes true? Yes, sure there is. But is there the chance that a guy known as an extremely driven, hard worker can remake himself as an effective starter? Yes, there is. Nelson is healthy, his velocity is there and he can throw all his pitches again. Often the last thing to return to a pitcher after a serious upper body injury is command, and that's where Nelson has struggled.