Ron Robinsons Beard

I think both teams and players see the negative aspects of the current system, like service time manipulation and rising arbitration numbers, and see this as a positive for both. If these guys truly break out as stars, sure the upfront cost is much higher, but you are likely saving arbitration costs down the road.

And a fantastic update at that. Thanks for the update sir. Heyman gets crushed a lot on this board and I don’t really understand why, when I hear him talk he’s always respectful and careful with his words, actually humble kind of guy. Him and Rosenthal I trust as much as any reporters. I’m betting on this happening, makes too much sense. Heyman gets knocked at times as a shill for agents. I generally agree that his news typically has substance, though. He's definitely not the worst of the "insiders" out there.

Talks serious, per Heyman (I know, it's Heyman, but at least it's an update)

I wish they had been able to get a little more, but hopefully Gamel is useful. You never know if the pitching prospect they got back will pan out, either. Still, it seems like they got more back for Broxton than they did for Santana, which surprised me. The value of power-hitting corner OFers with average to poor defense must be very down right now.

Peralta has looked unhittable at times this spring. I think Tomlin's release pretty much confirms that he'll make the rotation out of Spring Training. There are still 6 guys they have to fit into 5 spots, though. We all know that Chacin is taking one spot, and I expect Anderson solidified his spot with his better outing yesterday. So it's down to Davies, Woodruff, Burnes and Peralta for the remaining 3 spots. As much as Counsell seems to value grittiness and past performance, I'm starting to think that Davies may be the odd man out here. Of course, it's probable that things will be shaken up again in mid-April with Nelson's return.

Josh Tomlin has been released. A small hit to the overall rotation depth, but in the end, not earth-shattering. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Brewers scouring the wire for starting pitching types they can stash at AAA.

They lost their 3rd rounder with the Grandal signing. Would lose their 4th rounder if they were to sign Kimbrel or Keuchel.

It wouldn't surprise me if they floated him an identical offer to what they signed Grandal for.

Well, I think they can cross Jaylon Ferguson off the list of potential picks. You could have timed his 3-cone drill with an obelisk.

Almost everything from Heyman is agent-induced. His Twitter is basically 99% smoke. Rosenthal is better, but still smoke there. I have no doubt that the info is "real", as in Kimbrel's agent "really" leaked it. I doubt it came from the Brewers, as there was nothing leaked on Grandal and Moustakas until they happened.

Well, it would make sense if you're an agent of a player who wants to sign with a certain team to leak that your client is in talks with their biggest rival. I think this is just a ploy to get the Cubs to open the checkbook up. Rosenthal is used in this fashion quite a bit. I'm surprised Robert Murray took the bait, though. He's typically better than this.

The guy is a likely Hall of Fame closer. Why would they ask? If he's signed, Knebel and Jeffress better up their "hold" games. Because there are times when you need your best reliever for other situations. That's what great about this. It is arguable that Kimbrel would even be the team's best reliever.

Stearns literally said in an interview today that they expect Jeffress to be ready to roll by mid- to late April. I don't know why we wouldn't take him at his word.

Very possibly he was intrigued by signing with a team that puts more value on relievers than many other teams. I'm sure he's got an opt out if not brought up by a certain time too.

The guy is a likely Hall of Fame closer. Why would they ask? If he's signed, Knebel and Jeffress better up their "hold" games.

I wonder if he's interested in piggybacking?

Pen is already very good. This could make it great.

Brewers in talks with Kimbrel, per Robert Murray.

2 years/$16.75 million max for Clay. There was no way the Packers were going to go there, nor should they have. Best of luck to Clay, as he was a great Packer for a long time. But it's time to move on.

Yes, Great pick-up. Stearns said AAA to start, won’t be there long IMHO, any one of Petricka Barnes stumble........maybe even Albers, but I doubt it. Petricka has looked pretty good as well. Power arm and closer experience, although last couple years have been rougher. Still averaging roughly 1 K per inning, which is decent. I think he probably makes the team. Barnes can still be optioned, which is a good thing given his inconsistency.

Fields actually looks like a terrific pick-up at this point of the spring. I know his numbers are a little hollow, but I'm still surprised the Dodgers gave up on this guy. It looks like he could possibly be a cog in the pen at some point.

That guy has been pretty snake-bit since his great rookie year. Kind of a bummer that it's happening to a bad team.

A big part of it is going to come down to situational usage as well. Counsell had a magic horseshoe at times last year with how he chose to deploy his pen. So many of the moves worked perfectly. It's very possible that can regress. As for significantly less talent, being able to plug premium blue-chip arms like Woodruff and Burnes into the pen during the stretch run was a luxury that may have won them the division in 2018. Unless some darkhorse in the minor leagues like Sanchez or Zach Brown or even Perdomo emerges as that sort of talent this year, I doubt they are going to have that luxury again. If JJ's shoulder issue turns out to to be anything significant, I agree with you, on paper at least.

There is a lot of variance, but it's not impossible to make reasonable projections. I think it's reasonable to suggest they're unlikely to be anywhere near as strong as last year. For one thing, they were a legendary bullpen last year, so by definition it's just really hard to live up to that standard. They changed the way average people think of bullpen usage. How do you lose Woodruff, Burnes, Soria, and perhaps (for all intensive porpoises) JJ and not get a lot worse in the pen? A couple of Peralta's best games were technically relief appearances as well. And while they still have Knebel and Hader, I think the most reasonable projections should have the pen regressing a lot, despite the standard disclaimer that bullpen performance is pretty volatile. On the plus side, some of the best arms are going to the rotation. Manage innings and make a successful transition from Anderson/Davies to Peralta/Nelson a few months in, and the rotation could more than make up the difference by the end of the year. Your hypothesis is certainly possible. I guess I just prefer to view the state of the pen in a little brighter terms. I think its entirely possible that Knebel is more stable this year. I don't think they are really going to miss Soria's small-sample 22-inning, 4.09 ERA stint, although he was better than that in the playoffs. But in theory you are eliminating roughly 70 innings of cringe-worthy Oliver Drake, Boone Logan, Aaron Wilkerson and Matt Albers appearances (although Albers is likely to make the team again, I doubt they give a long leash if he's horrible). In the end, the fate of the pen rests on guys like Taylor Williams and Jacob Barnes being able to capitalize on the good points they had last year. Are the decent ERAs they put up last year mirages? We'll see.

I get what you're saying, but all scheduled piggybacking is going to do is destroy your pen depth. Say you have two pitchers assigned to piggyback roles, that effectively takes two arms out of your pen. That just isn't sustainable for a whole season.