Ron Robinsons Beard

Trying to predict bullpen results is almost like throwing darts blindfolded. Heck, the pen was probably the biggest strength of last year's team, and that was with our closer, Knebel, getting hurt, then coming back and pitching so poorly that they sent him to AAA! Yes, I know he came back and was unhittable from August on, but he was still very inconsistent for a large chunk of the season. Fortunately for the Brewers, Jeffress stepped up and became the relief ace that they were lacking with Knebel. I fully expect Knebel to be the version of him we saw in August and September last year, and pairing him with Hader gives the team two shut-down types in the pen. Jeffress is the big unknown at this point. Is it a dead arm from being used so much last year? It isn't unheard of for pitchers to have a dead arm in Spring Training, but Jeffress has barely had any action. That is certainly cause for concern. I'm going to hold out hope that he is going to start ramping things up soon and will hopefully be back and his normal self by mid-April, but it is concerning. Yeah the rest of the guys are more of a crapshoot, but you never know who is going to emerge. Nelson joining the rotation in April sometime (hopefully) will likely kick a good arm to the pen. As much as I really want to see Woodruff and Burnes in the rotation this year, I'd rather see them as high-leverage arms in the major league pen than starting games in San Antonio. Peralta is a bit different, as I don't think his stuff translates as well to relief work, so I think its MLB rotation or the minors for him.

Agreed ... but with the caveat that I'd like to pay Tomlin the roster bonus to hold his rights in AAA until June. Simply in the interest of maintaining depth. Of course, who knows what else might be out there that might have more upside as cuts approach.

Hader might possibly be the most valuable reliever in baseball right now. Knebel, despite his hiccups last season, was terrific down the stretch, and has a proven record of high-end work. Claudio has been solid the last several years, and has looked terrific this spring. Relievers are typically volatile regardless of how much perceived depth you have any given season, but any pen headed by arms like Knebel and Hader is going to be viewed as a strength. If Jeffress is an issue, that obviously hurts overall depth, but I don't think that changes the fact that the pen is a strength. Every team is going to have unknowns going into the season.

Albers,Barnes,Petricka and Williams > Weak Can’t believe some people think our pen still a strength. You're seriously discounting Barnes, Albers, and Williams. Albers is a year removed from a sub-2 era season. He was pitching better until his injury. The other 2 are big velocity RH pitchers. If your expectation is having 8 Josh Hader's in the bullpen, I can understand your disappointment. Maybe I'm a little higher on the pen than some, but to me the "weak" take reeks of recency bias. Brew crew 92, I know you REALLY want Kimbrel in the pen, but if it hasn't happened by now, I don't think it's going to. I know we are going to end up with a few wild cards in the pen with guys like Albers and Petricka, but it's important to note that both have had successful runs at the major league level in the past. Barnes and Williams are still relatively young and inexperienced fireballers as well with the chance to break out. I've also seen nothing to indicate that Jeffress's issues are a long-term thing, so until we do, I'm going to go with the assumption that he will be back and ready to roll before too long. Also note that if Peralta does make the rotation (and at this point it's hard to keep him off it), then its possible that either Burnes or Woodruff will be kicked to the pen to begin the year, and both of them bring electric arms and recent bullpen success.

Well, that should calm some fears a bit. Long season, and a lot can happen, but so far, so good. Negative nellies gonna still be vocal with lot to overcome cause it’s “the shoulder”and even if he’s healthy 2017 an “outlier” talk till it’s not. I wouldn't say its so much being negative, as we've kinda been conditioned as long-time Brewer fans to expect the worst with it comes to player health.

Well, that should calm some fears a bit. Long season, and a lot can happen, but so far, so good.

He typically sat at 95 in 2017, with the ability to dial it up to 97 on occasion. Great to see him there in mid-March.

Jimmy Nelson just pitched a 1-2-3 inning, touching 95 on the gun according to McCalvy. That is pretty dang promising news. At this point, I don't think there's any reason to believe we won't see Nelson in the MLB rotation by mid-April. Edit: Two innings of no-run ball. HBP and a single given up in the 8th. I'll take it!

Nelson pitches a 1-2-3 inning, touching 95 on the gun according to McCalvy. That is pretty dang promising news. At this point, there's no reason we wouldn't see Nelson by mid-April.

Do you think Moustakas would be better? Beyond the "click bait" part of my title, the main point was to put Arcia in a position to field a higher percentage of balls than anyone else on our infield. 90% of Arcia's value is in his defense. So I'm advocating that with an infield of Shaw, Arcia, Moose, and Aguilar/Thames, I'd put Arcia wherever the metrics say he will get the most balls. Among those 5 players, he is by far the best defender at SS/2B. And probably 3B/1B too. This makes sense. I fear it will lead to more Aguilar at 3B theories, though

Probably a mix of those. Not straight piggybacking where you have guys scheduled to relieve the starters, but it'll be based more on matchups. And probably not till September with expanded rosters. I just hope that these guys pitch well enough to warrant limiting their innings at the end of the year.

Brandon Woodruff dealing again, with 5 Ks though two innings. He has to be in the rotation, right?

The only think that keeps me from calling Nelson's 2017 a true outlier was the fact that injury prevented him from having the opportunity to either continue on that path or return to the mean. I guess given that, by definition, outliers can occur by chance in any distribution, he doesn't necessarily need to return to the mean for the word to ring true, if you believe that he had enough statistical data to reliably compare his 2017 numbers to previous numbers. I agree with your opinions on Nelson, but if Nelson pitched in 10 GAMES and he had 9 games in which he went less than 6 and gave up 3 runs, and then one in which he pitched 9, gave up hit, 0ER and struck out 14, that'd be an outlier. The term outlier doesn't leave room for explanation or reasoning. It just is. Take Nelson's season and put them on a graph. That 2017 season would stand far apart from the rest, hence, outlier. I agree that had he not got hurt he would have likely continued to be the pitcher I think he genuinely turned into. I also believe he's going to be back to the pitcher we saw this year. I think everyone's too hung up on what is an outlier. I also think people need to start watching the game more and breaking it down with raw data less. You can SEE Nelson becoming a better pitcher in 2017. You could SEE Braun hitting into a lot of hard outs and I thought I could see Cain hitting into a lot of soft outs, I could see Cain running a mile to easily catch a fly ball, you could see Yelich at times struggling out there relative to his GG reputation, you could see Keon Broxton pressing and scared of losing playing time. You could NOT see Phillips throw a ball from center to catcher as I believe that traveled faster than the speed of light, but most of the things you see are only confirmed by analytics. Analytics are awesome. They're great for teams, they're great for fans during lulls. They're great just to be better informed if you care to be(many people don't, they just want to watch the games, and that's fine with me). But for people arguing that 2017 might not have been the real Jimmy Nelson because of his ERA+ the previous seasons and what not, I feel like you just weren't WATCHING him. He was pitching with more confidence, he wasn't nibbling, he was attacking, he was getting ahead, he was putting guys away. He was a emerging pitcher. I think this is one of the best replies I've seen on this thread. Sometimes you just feel like throwing the stats and analytics out the window, and going with your gut If it worked for Lou Brown ...

If teams get crazy and wee see something like 4 QBs go in the top 11, there's no doubt that one of those highly-ranked edge guys, Greedy Williams, one of the stud DTs or Hockenson is going to be there at 12. That has to be the Packers' hope at this point. Either that or one of the QBs is still on the board, and the Dolphins have to overpay to jump into Green Bay's spot.

The only think that keeps me from calling Nelson's 2017 a true outlier was the fact that injury prevented him from having the opportunity to either continue on that path or return to the mean. I guess given that, by definition, outliers can occur by chance in any distribution, he doesn't necessarily need to return to the mean for the word to ring true, if you believe that he had enough statistical data to reliably compare his 2017 numbers to previous numbers.

That's not true. I think the prevailing opinion is that it isn't a given we will see 2017 Jimmy. It's also possible we will. Your stance seems to be that we will see 2017 Jimmy because he was really good two years ago. Yes that is my stance. Takeaway the injury, and I would’ve expected to see the same ace like pitcher in 18. And now that Nelson is healthy again and with reports that his breaking stuff and command is as good as ever and he has touched 95 mph, I believe with innings his velo will tick back to where it was and he will be an ace for us again this year at some point. Man, I hope that comes true, because it was be awesome! But as I found out last year, expecting him back in mid-June, lofty expectations can lead to disappointment. But if you temper those expectations, it makes the disappointment more palatable. I personally am very encouraged by what Nelson has shown so far. It leads me to believe that he will in fact make an impact on this year's squad. The skepticism is still going to be there, though.

I also think its arguable calling Trey Flowers far more proven than Preston or Za'Darius Smith. Stats-wise all three are somewhat similar. Flowers hasn't really proven anything in his career other than he's a solid player with the potential to break out. I think it's a safe bet to say that NFL teams like his potential more, hence the larger amount of guaranteed money.

Metcalf's build and lack of body fat actually would worry me, as it theoretically makes him more susceptible to soft issue injuries. The size and speed is certainly very intriguing, but he was also a guy who battled injury and inconsistency throughout his college career. It's hard to put a finger 100% on why I'm skeptical, as he is a freak of nature athletically, but he just seems like the type to me who's always going to be in the training room.

That is the rule: https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-rules-changes Awesome... objection withdrawn! Wouldn't this mean, though, that a LOOGY could be brought in to face a tough LHH with two down in the inning? Granted you'd be taking the chance of having to leave them in there should they not retire the guy they're supposed to, but I think this leaves the door open for those guys at least a crack.

I agree with this 100%. Ha Ha is probably going to put up some nice stats in that defense, but I think he's going to drive Bears fan nuts doing it. And because he'll put up stats from the S position, ranking services are always going to be skewed toward valuing him higher than he should be. Of course, he could very well change the way he plays and be a stud in that defense. He's certainly got the talent to do it.

The Amos/Ha Ha "swap" is going to add intrigue to what is already a great rivalry. My take on Ha Ha is that he's a talented player, but extremely undisciplined. He's got great ball skills, but is almost afraid of contact at times. He also loves to freelance. I think the Bears may regret that pairing, because Eddie Jackson is a very similar player, who has been covered up over the years by Amos's steady, consistent play. I think the Packers signed Amos because they need a leader back there who is going to be in the right place at the right time, and doesn't deviate from the scheme in search of personal glory. Because he's that type of player, he isn't going to create a ton of turnovers or splash plays, but his presence is going to make those players around him better. Amos is almost Yin to Ha Ha's Yang.

Yep ... personally I can't remember many times when Counsell specifically brought in a pitcher to face one batter. Maybe once or twice with Hader when he had pitched the day before. Cedeno obviously after he got here. Jennings typially pitched to multiple hitters. Taylor Williams I guess they tried to limit exposure to left handed hitters. Honestly, this affect's Joe Maddon's managing style much more. He's become known for playing matchups and making a ton of pitching changes during a game. Take a look at those Cubs box scores last year, especially from September. It was nothing for 6 or 7 or even 8 pitchers to appear. Counsell never came close to doing that.

Nelson was officially released today. Adam Humphries said today in his introductory press conference with the Titans that the Patriots expressed interest in him before he chose the Titans. Nelson would likely come pretty cheap. There's a few dots there to connect. As for him returning to the Packers, I think that ship has probably sailed.

Wily Peralta? Wow Sorry, speechless for a bit. Now that I’ve had a chance to recover let me just say Nelson in 15 and 16 young pitcher with good stuff and no command. His mechanical adjustment made in early 17 improved his curveball and command of all his pitches, hence ace like pitcher all of 17 til injury. He figured it out, like ALL good pitchers eventually do. If Jimmy not injured I’d say 90+% 2018 season similar to 2017 season. I really dig the optimism, and I too hope you are right. Because that would be terrific for the Brewers' 2019 chances.

I sure as heck hope it doesn't come to that.