Ron Robinsons Beard

Crabtree and Adams have skillsets that are pretty redundant. In fact, Adams is basically a more explosive version of Crabtree. He'd be ok opposite Adams, but if they want more speed out of the position, he probably isn't it.

Some poor defense in the 1st, and a leadoff HR in the 2nd, then settled in fine. I don't think it changes anything. He's in the rotation to start the year.

Solid reliever, but not really a need. He's not going to displace Knebel as the closer, and while he'd be a nice set-up guy, I think I'd rather just keep the pick and role with Taylor Williams.

It might be the first time a legit source said the Brewers had interest. But you're right, it could be Heyman just connecting the same tired dots we have here for months.

An actual rumor from an actual source: Milwaukee Brewers Brewers owner Mark Attanasio and agent Scott Boras made a late-spring deal for a high-profile pitcher once before (Kyle Lohse), when Attanasio signed Kyle Lohse. But while they talked about Jake Arrieta, there’s no evidence they ever got close. They may make the most sense for Alex Cobb at this point. They do have interest, as well as a need. - Jon Heyman

I strongly disagree. I think they make the Yelich trade even if Cain went elsewhere and vice versa. And I think you're a perfect example of falling victim to coincidental timing combined with the unfortunate misleadings of an internet troll. Yah, going to have to disagree with that one. Actually I might be the polar opposite.. There was some connection with those two signings. Those two major acquisitions don't just happen on top of each other like that. Did one depend on the other? Maybe, maybe not. Maybe getting Yelich created an urgency to finish up the Cain deal ASAP too. I have absolutely no doubt that they timed the announcements to coincide with the On-Deck event that weekend. Because that's the kind of fluffy crap this team's PR department pulls. I was kind of laughed at when I suggested it back then, but look at the history. This team loves to have player acquisition announcements at the end of January to line up with selling tickets right before On Deck. I do get it, but that doesn't stop me from thinking that it's hokey and juvenile.

I strongly disagree. I think they make the Yelich trade even if Cain went elsewhere and vice versa. And I think you're a perfect example of falling victim to coincidental timing combined with the unfortunate misleadings of an internet troll. I disagree. If there is anyone here not falling for the rumors, it was MrTPlush.

Packers traditionally have gone for taller DBs, are they going to be cool with a 5' 9" guy? If Pettine feels he can play in his defense that's good enough for me, I just wonder if they shy away from him because of size. I personally wondered the same thing, but I guess they are making an exception. Pettine has had shorter defensive backs play well in his defense before. Jim Leonhard and Lito Shepard come to mind.

Guerra's surprise 4th option certainly gives Gallardo a better chance. I have some concerns about how many retreads this team might end up having though. If you go down the roster battles one-by-one, you could make a case for guys like Gallardo, Miley, Jeffress, Guerra, and Drake, but you run the risk of failing to see the forest for the trees. They have a lot of young arms who have a good chance to be part of the team for a long time, including when they likely peak in 2-3 years. I would prefer they just throw more guys like Williams, Houser, Suter, and Woodruff into the fire so they go through some of those growing pains now. It's not like the retreads aren't almost just as likely to struggle anyway. I think they're still a very strong wild card contender either way, and they're way behind the Cubs, Dodgers, and Nationals, so why not err on the side of building for the future? 100% agree with this. Filling out the rotation and pen with retreads and reclamation projects is the "old Brewers" way of doing business, in the years where they really had no other alternatives. I understand the argument that it increases your organizational depth to hide those younger guys with options at AAA, but at some point you just end up stunting their development. Suter and Woodruff have nothing left to prove at AAA, and fit the team's "young controllable talent" mantra. I don't mind that the team gave Miley a chance to reestablish himself as a MLB pitcher this Spring Training, but I don't want him anywhere close to the team's starting rotation. This team has "been there, done that" in the past, and it almost always ends poorly.

Packers putting full court press on Rashaan Melvin as well. Big, fast CB who has been a late bloomer. They have competition for him, though. They would be extremely pleased to land both Melvin and Mathieu, which would take a lot of pressure off having to use Pick #14 on a DB. Davon House is also on the radar as a value signing. He actually fits Pettine's defense better than he did with Capers. Burnett is likely gone unless he has misread his market. Packers would like him back, but can't devote a huge contract to a position where they have decent depth. Jones was drafted at the heir apparent, and they like Brice and Evans as well. But they love Burnett's leadership and that he was willing to do whatever was asked of him last year. Also a super smart player, and those types typically age pretty well.

Well, I know one poster around here who will agree with that

Regarding Jordy Nelson ... I find it pretty funny that the only fans who seem to be extremely upset about his release are women in their 30s. Jordy definitely had a pigeonholed fanbase. I loved him during his prime, but even in his great "comeback" 2016, it was evident that he was no longer the receiver he was pre knee injury. So much of his production was on broken plays where Rodgers scrambled and managed to throw Nelson open. The two of them had almost and otherworldly connection. But at this point is his career, in baseball terminology, Nelson is a late-30s LOOGY who, if deployed right on the right team, could still be effective. But not at prime closer dollars.

Do you have a source with the Packers? This is where Rodgers should pick up the phone and advocate for him to get his butt to GB. I'll say I know someone very familiar with the mindset of the current front office. These are pretty easy dots to connect, though. The Packers have a huge need for talent in their secondary, especially at slot corner. That is Mathieu's ideal position. He's a difference maker there. He wants to play for a winner. The scuttlebutt within league circles is he will sign a surprisingly affordable deal with the Patriots or Packers.

The problem is that while we will have an All Star OF sitting the bench every day, we could very well have a sub-par starting pitcher on the mound 40% of the time. We spent our resources to add two great players to our deepest position, while passing on seemingly affordable upgrades where we could really use them (2b, SP). While I am skeptical that the three guys who were so bad last year that we traded for Walker will suddenly be good, at least there is some reason to believe that Villar could bounce back. At the back-end of our rotation, I don't see much room for hope (other than at some point Nelson will return). I still find it hard to believe that Stearns thought spending the money to sign Cain or the prospects to acquire Yelich (blocking Santana/Braun) was more important than spending that capital to upgrade our rotation. As to Braun, I know the PED stigma will always be the first thing a lot of people think of, but outside of that he has been nothing but great for the Brewers. He's put up numbers that should garner Hall of Fame votes, he has been asked to change position multiple times and has never complained, he plays through obvious pain, he signed a team-friendly extension and later came back to the team to sign a deal that would make him a Brewer-for-life, and it has been noted that he tries to convince teammates to take early extensions. Now he knows that the team is in a roster-crunch and rather than doing what many players in his position would do, which is say "I'm the veteran and I'm going to play my position," he goes to the manager and basically says that he'll be a utility player if that helps the team, while taking extra reps at positions where he's uncomfortable. I don't know what the next few years will bring, but I look forward to seeing #8 hanging in the Miller Park rafters shortly after his playing days are done. I agree on probably 90% of what you said. I'm a bit more bullish on the sub-par 40% thing, though. Suter certainly isn't going to blow anything by you, but he proved last year that he can be an effective starter in the league. His biggest issue was being able to go deep into games, but that could very well be the result of being yanked back and forth between the rotation and the pen last year. I also like Woodruff as a potential 5th starter, and even have some hope for Guerra should he win the spot. I have no hope for Miley, and should he win the spot, I predict a full on dumpster fire. He's the left-handed version of Garza at this point. I really like what you said on Braun, though. Yep, the PED thing sucked, but he has been nothing but a team player and professional who has represented the team wonderfully over the years. Instead of sulking when the team basically acquired his replacement in Yelich, he said he'd be willing to go anywhere and do anything to help the team. He's been honest and forthright when asked about the difficulties of the position switch, and for a guy that has performed at such a high level for so long, and has been very confident in his abilities throughout his career, that is really saying something. He's handled this whole thing beautifully.

I don't believe there is any way this happens. Santana is in RF for the Brewers come opening day. Only way that doesn't happen is on the off chance that he's traded.

Yep. That's why you carry guys like Perez in the first place. Gives you far more options in double switches and using more relievers. They'll probably need Sogard more than they'll need Aguilar, too. You can't just carry a bunch of DH types in the National League. Shaw and Vogt also have 1B experience. This roster is constructed perfectly if the Brewers played in the AL. But they don't, so it's not.

Not trying to steal Mass Haas' thunder, but this is fun. Always liked Hendo. Also can't have enough relief depth.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2018/03/15/tyrann-mathieu-a-winning-culture-matters-more-to-me-than-money/#comments Seems to have his options narrowed down. You read that and obviously think Patriots. But Packers makes a lot of sense, too. I know Packers have made a call.

Oh, I can guarantee that "these five" (Anderson, Davies, Chacin, Suter, Woodruff--or sub Miley in if you wish) will not "carry us into a wildcard spot." In fact, I'd even bet dollars to doughnuts that Stearns himself doesn't believe that, either. And that, ladies and gentlemen, is the whole point of this rotation experiment. But wait, you might say, didn't Stearns express confidence in this current group of starters? Sure did. Or, didn't Attanasio say late in the offseason that money was available to add a new piece? Yep (and more on that in a minute). Others have noted this already, so I won't belabor the point too much, but our Brewers, as an organization, cannot get trapped into two fallacious modes of thought: 1) we must go tit for tat with the big-spending organizations on every single acquisition and 2) the way teams have been constructed in the past is the way they must always be constructed in saecula saeculorum and is The Only Right Way to Build a Champion ©. Many of the problems with this should be obvious, but in short: 1) We do not have the money to make the kind of mistakes the Cubs and Yankees can make and still field an above-average ball club. Guaranteed contracts and the difficulty we will always seem to have in luring people to spend much of their lives in Milwaukee mean we need to make all our dollars count as much as we can. Now, granted, I love Milwaukee as a town, although I've never really lived there, and sure, some people like Lorenzo Cain seem to like it a lot, too, but he seems more of an exception, not the rule. So we have to play a slightly different game. But, consider, the big-ticket FA route is still risky: if Darvish goes down, or Lester and Hendricks regress, all of which are serious possibilities, and the Cubs are in trouble, even if their offensive struggles last year were an aberration and the bullpen is improved (which, I will note, are still ifs and will have to be proven on the field this year). 2) Roster construction and deployment of pitching is changing. Relief aces are becoming more valuable all the time. In a sort of renaissance of the old fireman principle, people like Andrew Miller and his imitations (Josh Hader, anyone?) are just the tip of the iceberg in terms of how teams are rethinking what it takes to build a successful pitching staff. It is about survival as much as it is about anything else. Your biggest threat to lose a game might not be in the 5/6 innings your starter happens to pitch, and it might not be in the 9th inning, either. If it comes after your starter leaves with two on and one out in the 5th inning, having multiple solid options to come into the game and take care of that situation is invaluable. Maybe that is a Hader who can go two and a third wipeout innings against the top-7 hitters of a squad like Chicago or New York. Maybe its a swingman like Guerra who can get you through an otherwise nightmare game without taxing the bullpen. And, in the biggest rethink of all, teams seem to be finally appreciating the fact that "those five" guys you start the season with are not the only ones you will ever hand the ball to at the start of ballgames, and those fill-in starts still count, too. A few years ago, Fangraphs (https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/so-how-many-starters-does-a-team-need-then/) estimated that on average, baseball teams have a 65% chance of two of their "preferred" starters will be hurt at the same time, and 32% chance of it happening to three of those starters at the same time. Most crucially, if a baseball team sees only average rates of attrition (6 DL stints for their starting staff throughout the year, totaling as many as 360 days), then that team will have it's preferred starters together for only 22% of the season. Even excluding year-long DL stints, that could still account for 32 starts made by starters 6-??. I don't have to tell you in a two-team wildcard scenario, those 32 games could more than make or break reaching the play-in game, or even winning a division. So how do the Brewers look on that front? Baseball Prospectus Milwaukee (http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/03/12/the-rotation-is-good/) has a good rundown, but TL;DR--"While the Brewers’ overall rotation may have an 'average' outlook, once replacement rotations begin to appear in the 2018 MLB, the Milwaukee replacements will have a runs prevented advantage of at least 30 runs (assessed against other teams’ replacements)." That means our rotation is in position to save 30 runs above average just because of our fill-in starters when compared to the fill-in starters of most other clubs. Teams like the Cubs, Dodgers, National, and Yankees have invested a lot of resources in fielding great "top of the rotation" talent, and, sure, when all those pitchers take the field, advantage those teams. But they won't all take the field every 5th day, what's more, the Brewers know this, and have prepared enough above-average replacements to claw back the difference once attrition rears its ugly head. That is the plan for competing with the big wallets. Finally, however, what about Attanasio's quote mentioned above? Maybe he was feeling good and was only telling an energetic crowd what they wanted to hear. Cynics might say its all a ploy by hucksters and cheapskates to sell more tickets and improve the bottom line without ever spending enough to field a real winner. That is possible, I suppose. Or, perhaps Attanasio and Stearns know something else: while what we might call the "defend against attrition" strategy is a great way to win games over a long season, it can all quickly go for nothing in a 5 or 7-game series during the playoffs. You don't have time to just play the averages when there might be no tomorrow. That is when you really need your aces. And having the prospect capital and financial wiggle room to go get a guy like that (and whatever Cobb is, I feel pretty confident in saying he isn't "TOR") when the season is nearing its second half is how you put an otherwise good team over the top for a championship run. That is how the Astros did it last year, and not trading for an Archer or signing a Cobb/Lynn/Darvish/Arrieta now means we can still do that when we absolutely need to and know our time is at hand. So I say, forget about Cobb (although I wish him well), and let's realize we're looking at the bleeding edge of how to make a small-market club competitive. I don't have a crystal ball, so maybe this all doesn't work. Round balls and round bats lead to some pretty random results, and all the planning in the world won't guarantee you a championship sometimes. But I am confident in saying that Stearns and Attanasio really do want to build a winner, and really do think this roster as constructed is the best way available to them to do it. I can't wait to see what happens. After weeks of "the sky is falling" posts, this is a breath of fresh air. Thanks for taking the time to put together your thoughts. Please I urge you to keep contributing!

Why did you repost this?

Chacin has looked good so far this spring. Could be a solid stabilizing part of that staff. I admit to not being too thrilled with the signing, but when you dig into his numbers, he could very well provide solid value.

A Rodgers extension would free up space as well. How close the team is to the salary cap is kind of a drawn-out media fallacy. If a team really wants a player, they can always find the money to do it. Always.

Yep. What does it tell guys like Suter and Woodruff who have put in their time and earned a spot? I would get a guy like Cobb, because he would be a clear upgrade on paper to Suter/Woodruff, but Miley sure and heck isn't.

Woodruff isn't going to be in the opening day rotation. Says who? He's still in Major League camp, looked really good yesterday. I agree that I would like to see Woodruff in the rotation, but I have a suspicion that he won't be, simply because junk like Miley is viewed as depth. I would like to hear 82brewcrew82's reasoning, though.

Yep, I saw the same thing. I have thought for awhile that this is just GM-speak, but at some point I guess we have to take him at his word. So apparently the rumored interest was all smoke? I guess Cobb doesn't move the needle. I swear, though, that if he signs a cheap deal somewhere and pitches well, while we watch Wade Miley slog through 5 innings a start while giving up 5 runs, I'm going to be even more disappointed.