Ron Robinsons Beard

Got a link? I see a retweet from Brewers Farm saying that the team has the top offer, but that "it will take a lot to lure him to Milwaukee." I know we are probably talking about semantics, but that doesn't appear as absolute as you make it out to be.

Yes, system strength is cyclical, as prospects graduate or are traded off. But to say these guys are the last remaining high-ceiling prospects is a pretty myopic viewpoint. Burnes was a 2016 draftee, and Hiura was just drafted last season. A whole new batch of prospects will be introduced to the system through the draft and international free agency in only a few months. I have been very impressed with Sterns's drafts, as he seems to be prioritizing upside over the "safe" picks that littered the Doug Melvin years. The whole goal of a farm system is to improve the major league team. If that means prospects mature and end up playing for the Brewers, great! If that means prospects are used as currency to improve the major league club through trades, also great. If they trade Burnes and Hiura for a pitcher, it will be a hit, but the system isn't even close to being compromised.

I too agree on Phillips. His profile fits exactly what Stearns is trying to do. To me, though, Burnes, Hiura and any other prospect are expendable in the right deal. Burnes is a nice pitching prospect, and it's nice to have those. Hiura has proven absolutely nothing. We have no idea is he can even play in the field. If someone attaches a high value to him, and wants to give up a high-end starter, bye-bye Keston.

Is this speculation on your part, or have you seen/heard something somewhere? I haven't seen anything saying the Brewers are out on Archer. Also, if they make a trade for a top of the rotation starter, I am 99% sure one of Burnes or Hiura, if not both, would be the return. Teams aren't giving up top pitchers easily, but if they are, they are going to want your top prospects in return. Also, regarding HH19, he gone.

If Walker is signed, I agree, Villar will be traded or dumped. But if Walker isn't signed, Villar is the starter at 2B. He offers SO much more upside than Sogard on Perez. Like mountains more. It isn't even close. I think everyone who has ever seen anything on this board knows your thoughts on the Gennett transaction, There is really no need to beat that dead horse any further.

Not necessarily. In theory, the Brewers or one of the other Darvish suitors could say "We're tired of waiting," and sign or trade for a different pitcher/pitchers. If they pull their offer, it decreases his leverage, and if there are only 1-2 other teams after him, then he's hurt his market by dragging his feet.

The Brewers just got done paying Matt Garza $50 million. For a grand total of 26 wins in four seasons. Should we be demonizing players who demand what you are calling "fair market value"? You're dang right we should! Granted there are players who do live up to the hefty contracts they sign, but there are far more who don't. Owners are just as much to blame as players for letting it spiral to this point. Matt Kemp signing an 8-year contract for $160 million and Ellsbury's 7-year, $153 million contract are not fair market. They were dumb, and the teams that hold those contracts deserve the ridicule they get. And guess what ... reigning in these contracts is putting the Brewers on an equal playing field with the big-market teams. That's a good thing.

LOL, that is EXTREMELY subjective. Is Kemp "worth" the contract he got? Heyward? Cueto? Ellsbury? Those kind of contracts are moronic. Yeah, you can't suspend players for not signing contracts, obviously. But it's been predicted that these huge, long contracts couldn't continue, and this is probably the beginning of that. Free Agency is paying for past performance, for the money they should have gotten while their salaries were suppressed with team control/arb, so yes, Kemp was worth that contract. If the percentage of franchise revenue that goes to players' salaries goes down while franchise revenues go up, then the players are not receiving what they are worth. Salaries should climb along with revenues. Follow that philosophy, and before long we're going to be paying $175 for a bleacher ticket and $45 for a hot dog.

LOL, that is EXTREMELY subjective. Is Kemp "worth" the contract he got? Heyward? Cueto? Ellsbury? Those kind of contracts are moronic. Yeah, you can't suspend players for not signing contracts, obviously. But it's been predicted that these huge, long contracts couldn't continue, and this is probably the beginning of that.

Go Kodi GO!!!! Yikes, this is a depressing list. Technically Nathan Kirby should be on this list too, but I didn't want him to catch any of the residual stink. He's been star-crossed enough.

I guess I appreciate that they are making an effort, but it isn't going to mean a hill of beans if they don't put a winning product on the field. Win, and you won't have to deal with Wrigley North. I'm not a big fan of the cutesy social media marketing crap this team likes to pull. I'm sure all teams do the same type of things, but it doesn't stop it from being annoying.

True dat *sigh* But we keep missing on arms. That is the real bummer behind this. We have the 5th pick and instead of investing it in an arm that could be franchise changing, we went for a light-hitting outfielder. Outfielders are a dime a dozen but here we are, searching for the game changers in our rotation, again. Kodi Medeiros Taylor Jungmann Jed Bradley Dylan Covey Eric Arnett Kyle Heckathorn Jake Odorizzi Evan Frederickson Jeremy Jeffress Mark Rogers Mike Jones All are 1st round or supplemental 1st round pitchers drafted by the Brewers since Ben Sheets in 1999. So not only do we pass up the right pitchers, the pitchers we draft are the wrong ones. This list is depressing.

True dat *sigh*

True, but they can't really afford to miss on a guy that was the #5 pick in the draft. He still has time, but being a college draftee, time is starting to not be on his side.

I wonder if that was the Brewers' original offer that was speculated to be rejected? So would anyone be mad if the Brewers offered him $115-$120 million for 5 years? That is an enormous financial commitment, but it would mean keeping draft picks and prospects.

Here's the requisite February "this is the year I turn it around" story on Corey Ray http://www.the3rdmanin.com/corey-ray-brewers-bounce-back/ The the Brewers' defense, Ray was considered one of the safest picks of that draft, as he had shown considerable upside. If the Brewers hadn't picked him at #5, there was no way he would have fallen more than 2-3 more spots. The health of the Brewers' system needs Ray to start fulfilling his potential, and quick. If this team is going to be a contender for the next several seasons, he needs to be valuable currency for potential moves.

All could be very true. The Brewers may very well have the best offer on the table, even with the Twins offer now supposedly out there. I think Darvish likely had his mind made up and was ready to sign somewhere else, but then the Brewers likely made contact soon after announcing the Yelich and Cain deals, and he had second thoughts about ruling them out. I think the Brewers are still very much on the table for Yu, and waiting on his decision may just be holding up a Santana trade. If Yu signs with the Brewers, I think the team would feel more comfortable flipping Santana for prospects, rather than for a MLB starter. But if Yu signs somewhere else, I think Santana is flipped for the best MLB starter they can find. 1. Darvish 2. Anderson 3. Davies 4. Chacin 5. Woodruff With Guerra, Gallardo, Suter, Wilkerson, Burnes in reserve and a potential Nelson return in June looks promising.

Rotation depth is certainly nice, but the Brewers already have a ton of #3-4-type pitchers. I guess I'd consider it depending on the return, but I have a feeling the Astros are going to want more than what I would feel comfortable with.

I think everyone is comfortable with Anderson in the middle of the rotation. I think the fear lies in the fact that, as of right now, he's not in the middle of the rotation. He's the #1 guy. I'm not as worried about Shaw as others are. I really like his approach. I think he's always going to be somewhat of a streaky hitter, though. We're just going to have to roll with it.

If the Cubs really and truly wanted Darvish, and he wanted to play for them, he would have signed with them already. That team has money coming out its ears, and I doubt that luxury tax implications are going to hold them back. No, the fear in Theo's office is that they are going to be stuck with another Heyward contract. Too many of those contracts get GMs fired. Sure, Darvish is a good pitcher, even a TOR #1 when he's on, but he's also had his share of injuries, and his World Series performance left doubt in a lot of teams' minds. It wouldn't surprise me if Darvish is weighing three very similar 4-year contracts from the Brewers, Cubs and Twins right now. His preference is definitely not to play in the Midwest, though, and I don't think he wants the pressure of being a rotation savior that he'd get playing for any of those teams. But ... all three teams are playoff contenders, so its a matter of him choosing where he feels he's the best fit. The Brewers definitely need him more than the Cubs or Twins, but the expectations would also be higher in Milwaukee. We saw Sabathia shine under that kind of pressure, but we've also seen guys like Sheets and even Greinke to an extent falter under it. Is Darvish a bulldog like Sabathia was in his prime? Or does he get in his own head like Sheets and Greinke?

The Brewers were able to ride several players performing above career norms to 86 wins and the cusp of a playoff birth last year. We'll no doubt see regression and/or injuries from a few of those guys, because that's just how the game works. I think there is also a chance, though, that several of the teams very young players take the next step. Certainly Arcia falls into that category, and Davies as well. Woodruff certainly has the talent to potentially replace a portion of Nelson's success. Having Hader for a whole year at the back end of the pen, and having Knebel locked in for a whole season as the closer is definitely an improvement. Is it possible that guys like Shaw, Thames, Pina, Anderson and Santana (if he stays) may regress? Most certainly. But I personally don't think they all will, and the talent that the team has added this offseason should mitigate much of that regression. Certainly on paper, this team is improved on last year's squad. I agree on the Anderson/Marcum comparison. At his best, Marcum was a solid #2 on a good team, and consistently a #3. I think that's the plane where Anderson operates as well. Those Marcum teams had Greinke as the clear-cut #1, though. Pitchers like Davies, Chacin and Woodruff, and potential acquisitions like Cobb, Lynn, Salazar, Archer and Odorizzi operate more at Anderson's plane than "in-his-prime" Greinke that the Brewers acquired in 2010. That type of pitcher just doesn't seem to be available this year, at least right now. Darvish at times has scratched the surface, but I'd still consider him a step down from prime Greinke. Now, if Nelson makes a full recovery and pitches like he did last year, he's got a shot at that level. But as we all know, that is a lot of "ifs".

Why does everyone think they are going to sign Walker? Did I miss something there? Probably just connecting the dots. The Brewers have a need at 2B, obviously there is a familiarity there, and the lack of interest in Walker may be bringing his price point into the range the Brewers are comfortable with. It wouldn't surprise me if the Brewers have an offer extended to Walker already, but I'm sure he's holding off because it's only for 2 years, and he wants 3-4. He was a nice fit in the lineup last year, and offers more consistency than Villar, albeit without near the upside. I agree, though, that if Walker is signed, Villar is redundant and is likely gone. Perhaps a team will throw a low-level prospect flyer at the Brewers for him, but it isn't going to be much.

Problem is that if Domingo is here until July, it will be tough for Phillips to get enough ABs as 5th OF. Even with Braun playing 1st vs. lefties. Will hard to get full read on his value. Only if NL finally had a DH, Domingo would be perfect! Really hoping they finally make switch in the coming years. Domingo controls own value. Like HH said, he comes out in 1st half & repeats or even better grows, his market will increase. Also, if Domingo is hitting bombs and is one of the offense's most consistent hitters in July, and the team is in contention, there would be a fan uproar if they traded him. It's just an odd situation the team is in right now. It's a good situation, as it's always better to have too many assets than not enough, but it's odd.

That'll be hard to do if he is the odd man out and squeezed for playing time. His value isn't going up if he isn't playing everyday and thus not seen as a regular. That's my fear as well. If he is on the team, he's gotta play almost every day. But Yelich and Cain also need to play every day, which leaves a logjam with Thames, Aguilar and Braun ... not to mention next to no time for Phillips, who would be their best defensive RF. I know that having too many good hitters for the spots you have available can be a good thing, but something is going to eventually have to give here.

There isn't anything up besides it being one of Wilson's dreams to play for the Yankees. Other than giving Yankee fans a little extra juice in late February, and giving beat writers a throw-away story, this is a complete nothingburger.