coolhandluke121
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Everything posted by coolhandluke121
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Postseason 25-Man Roster Prediction
coolhandluke121 replied to obobo55new's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I made this point in another thread but it might be more appropriate here. Their depth is amazing. You could almost divide the team in half, fill out both rosters with replacement-level players, and still have two .500 teams. LF: Yelich/Braun CF: Cain/Broxton RF: Santana/Granderson 1B: Aguilar/Thames 2B: Schoop/Perez SS: Arcia/Saladino 3B: Shaw/Moustakas C: Pina/Kratz Chacin Peralta Miley Anderson ---- Guerra Gonzalez Woodruff Davies The difficulty in that kind of depth, of course, is that the total WAR you're getting from everyone combined is going to be much less than what you would get if you could add up what each individual is capable of. There's just not enough innings for everyone to realize his individual WAR upside. -
I mean I hope I'm wrong. Just seems we've been told "he's back" so many times before.
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That wasn't meant as a call out, that was meant as a "Holy crap, he has a shot at a triple crown!" No one could have expected a week or 2 ago, that he'd be in the conversation for a triple crown... Far from a call out, more so a post in amazement, and enjoyment, as stated. Yeah but people are doing so much of that bumping stuff in an obnoxious way that it's hard to give anyone the benefit of the doubt any more.
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I don't know man. The thing about Braun is it seems like he's going to turn the corner all the time but then he has a day like yesterday and the next day we find out he's got some kind of nagging injury again. I'd hate for him to keep quiet about back pain or something so he can get the start. Granderson's OPS+ is basically exactly the same as Braun's the last 2 years but his OBP is better, and OPS undervalues OBP. Granderson has also been healthier and has more experience in RF, and he's an LHB. I know it's popular to act like Braun has vindicated himself and proven the doubters wrong because he's been hot for a week or whatever, but that's some serious sampling bias.
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Khris Davis ....the most consistent hitter in history
coolhandluke121 replied to markedman5's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Nah, don't sit him. It would be so much more fitting if he went 1 for 4 with a dinger. -
Khris Davis ....the most consistent hitter in history
coolhandluke121 replied to markedman5's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Bumpety bump. -
Wasn't there a thread about this a few months ago? Nobody else even comes close to Davis's consistency for batting average over a 4-year span. I think the next most consistent was a guy whose batting average fluctuated from his 4-year average by .018 or something.
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I agree. Incredibly obnoxious, especially when everyone should just be happy about such an incredible run. By the way, your numbers are way off. His SLG alone is 1.500 for the last 7 games. His OPS is over 2.100.
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I'm by no means a Chase Anderson fan but it's okay to give up 1 HR per start when your WHIP is that low - especially in this day and age. I mean, if we're acknowledging that HR hitters are overrated and guys like Chris Carter can't even get a part-time job because of their low OBP, isn't there a corollary for pitchers? All is well that ends well but you'd think they'd have some use for him.
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Bigger 2nd half - Sabathia or Yelich?
coolhandluke121 replied to homer's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I agree. Pitching every 4 days for that long was incredible. His overall stats in the playoff push were just as good as Yelich's. The team would have been completely lost without him, whereas I think they would still be competitive without Yelich. I still got CC. You gotta remember that pitchers don't get those great 5-second highlights like a home run hitter, so you can't judge them based on memorable moments or lack thereof. It's all about preventing opponents from having highlights. If Yelich's hot streak is that impactful, then by definition CC's ability to prevent anyone from getting hot is just as impactful, and he influence more plate appearances. A lot more. -
Bigger 2nd half - Sabathia or Yelich?
coolhandluke121 replied to homer's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Think of it by PA. A pitcher is 50% of every PA they pitch. If a guy throws 200 innings and averages say, 4 PA/inning that's 800 PA's in a season. I do have one question, though: isn't it better to average 3PA an inning and only get 600 PA? Pitchers want to reduce opposing PA right? I really like thinking of it in these terms, but that part confuses me... Yeah but it's all compared to a replacement level player - not compared to hypothetical perfection. We know a great ace literally gives you probably at least an 80% chance of winning any given start (even if he doesn't get the win, keeping you in the game for a late win is still a feat to his credit). That's a lot more wins than a scrap heap starter. Also, don't overthink it - the great starters are influencing so many plate appearances precisely because they're great and you can leave them in the game, not because they're giving up too many base-runners. -
Do teams rest guys on the last day of the season? That's not the variable I'm considering. Teams rest guys when they've been playing a lot, but they probably haven't been giving their key guys any maintenance days lately. Maybe nobody needs/wants one, but if there's any fatigue at all, there's no reason to play everyone.
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As someone mentioned in the other thread, I could actually see them playing better because the pressure is off. They're going to want to beat the Cubs no matter what. The problem is I think they'll rest some guys. They've been fighting for their lives for a while now. If they had been eliminated 3+ days, I would agree about the pressure thing.
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What? The Brewers will have another game after tomorrow. I don't see why you would use Chacin on 3 days rest (has he ever done that?) when there's such a high probability you'll wish you had saved him for the Cubs or the wild card game anyway. If the Cubs lose and Brewers win the Brewers don't play until Thursday. Yeah, I missed that scenario, but it seems pretty unlikely. I think the Cardinals are going to have a huge letdown game, and there's a chance the Brewers lose no matter who they start. Starting Chacin on 3 days rest in hopes that the Cubs lose and you can use him in game 2 of a series would be a foolish gamble IMO. It's set up perfectly for him to start against the Cubs or a WC foe, which are both much more likely scenarios than winning the division outright.
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The Cubs already won tomorrow? What? The Brewers will have another game after tomorrow. I don't see why you would use Chacin on 3 days rest (has he ever done that?) when there's such a high probability you'll wish you had saved him for the Cubs or the wild card game anyway.
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No way you start Chacin on 3 days rest. Why mess with him at all? You are going to play an extremely important game against a good team either Monday or Tuesday, no matter what. Save him for that. If you had to win tomorrow just to earn another game, then maybe you start him tomorrow, but that's not the case.
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With nobody on base? Nah. That's a reach.
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Last year, Braun’s OPS was .823, vs Grandy’s .775. Considerable gap, plus I’d imagine Braun is the better defender at this poin in their respective careers. Eh, not really. Granderson's OPS+ is basically exactly the same as Braun's over the last 2 years, but he's been healthier. I don't think Braun's defense is better either. His arm is not accurate and he doesn't get good breaks on the ball, despite being faster than Granderson at this point. Braun's dWAR stats are probably curated quite a bit by the Brewers' great schemes and gold glove defense in CF. He's also not nearly as good in RF, which is where the Brewers need someone. Playing the other side of the outfield makes a difference because the ball tails differently and a lot of parks are not symmetric, so experience there helps. Yelich is not good in RF either. Granderson has been every bit the player Braun has been for their careers and is every bit the player he is now, but you basically know what you're getting. Braun's 5 recent HR's be damned (that's FIVE, not EIGHT by the way) - you never know when he'll need two days off at the worst possible time. They'll both be in of course, but it's not at all a hot take to prefer Granderson.
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Wow. Granderson has been every bit as good as Braun, if not a little better, and much healthier/more reliable for 2 full years now. But a few recent clutch dingers changes all that I guess.
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I'm guessing that is why he will be on the playoff 25-man roster. Easily ahead of Santana and Thames. I'd take him ahead of Braun as well.
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Sabathia was better. ETA: And that's no disrespect to Yelich at all.
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If Cain or Santana had drawn a walk, that would have been your triple crown with one game to play.
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It's not the same as a typical spoiler situation though. The Cardinals have been pulling out all the stops to stay in the playoff chase. Some of their best relievers could probably use some rest. They won't force the issue with anyone. There's a natural letdown after being eliminated. I think I would rather be playing them than the Tigers tomorrow. If the Cardinals had been eliminated a week ago, I obviously wouldn't be saying that. Still something to be said the Dodgers and Rockies possibly playing on Monday. Even if the Cards can't give the Cubs a run for their money, at least both division winners could be equally disadvantaged by playing Monday.
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A bunch of people have recently shown stats proving that he's been one of the team's best hitters against LHP's all year. Too lazy to look those stats up now, but you can probably find them in several old game threads when they were playing an LHP starter.
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Would be quite the gut punch to lose this one. That said, I'm hoping we don't get a lot of that inferiority complex Brewer fan stuff. The fact is that the better you are, the more chances you give yourself for a punch in the gut, just like the best OBP teams inevitably hit into the most double plays. It goes with the territory. It's been a beautiful season regardless of what happens over the next week.