jonescm128

Agreed.

Lol he just posted "Sources within the Milwaukee Brewers are now aware of this account and for the safety of my source, this account will be deleted later today. There will be no more info on http://BF.NET or any other media source going forward. This is my last post." Please...

I agree with your sentiment but just let the guy post what he needs to post. That's fine but I think it's a little ridiculous people are getting so worked up about his posts. But, to each their own. Back to the actual free agents, I am guessing that we will not go long term with any of them. We already lost our third highest pick by signing Cain and I don't think Stearns likes the idea of giving up another top pick. If we do sign Arrieta or Cobb, I'm guessing it would be 2 yrs/ <$50 million. Darvish didn't require a draft pick forfeiture so I believe we did offer a bigger deal for him. For a small market team like the Brewers that draft pick should be viewed as a trade chip. We will never be in the business of signing mega deals. The FA pitching market next year is very weak so we definitely won't be signing anyone next year. So if something happens it will be: A) Signing Cobb or Arrieta on a short-term high AAV deal (under $50 million) B) Not signing either and using those picks either at the deadline or next year when the trade market opens back up.

I have never believed a word this guy says. The stuff he "predicts" is pretty logical and his other stuff is just pure speculation. I could say anything and it would be believable because Stearns has already said he casts a wide net. He broke Lucroy? Cleveland was so desperate for a catcher last year anyone could have called that. Their catchers hit a combined .168 up until the trade. He broke Yelich? They were publicly shedding payroll and it was reported that Milwaukee was talking to Miami. The only logical option was Yelich. I can also guarantee you that the only people that are aware of the level of detail he is supposedly providing are Stearns and Matt Arnold. An executive assistant to Stearns may know who they are calling but would have no idea what is being said. The only thing this guy is providing is entertainment so we can dream and speculate about possible trades and signings, which is fine, especially for the "Transaction Rumors/Proposals" board on here but the fact that so many people are taking this persons word as gospel is ridiculous. I will also give an 80% chance that Cobb does not sign with the Brewers because I do not think the Brewers view him as much better than Woodruff, Guerra, and possibly Burnes midway through the season and they definitely do not want to lose another draft pick. The only way I see him signing is a 2 year deal for around 40 million so they can stay under the $50 million threshold in order to retain their draft pick. Go Brewers! You forgot post #162 under the Darvish transaction Rumors. Darvish wanted a big market and LA couldn't shed payroll and wanted to be under the luxury tax...Chicago. Pretty obvious.

Single A pitcher Eric Hanhold of course!

I have never believed a word this guy says. The stuff he "predicts" is pretty logical and his other stuff is just pure speculation. I could say anything and it would be believable because Stearns has already said he casts a wide net. He broke Lucroy? Cleveland was so desperate for a catcher last year anyone could have called that. Their catchers hit a combined .168 up until the trade. He broke Yelich? They were publicly shedding payroll and it was reported that Milwaukee was talking to Miami. The only logical option was Yelich. I can also guarantee you that the only people that are aware of the level of detail he is supposedly providing are Stearns and Matt Arnold. An executive assistant to Stearns may know who they are calling but would have no idea what is being said. The only thing this guy is providing is entertainment so we can dream and speculate about possible trades and signings, which is fine, especially for the "Transaction Rumors/Proposals" board on here but the fact that so many people are taking this persons word as gospel is ridiculous. I will also give an 80% chance that Cobb does not sign with the Brewers because I do not think the Brewers view him as much better than Woodruff, Guerra, and possibly Burnes midway through the season and they definitely do not want to lose another draft pick. The only way I see him signing is a 2 year deal for around 40 million so they can stay under the $50 million threshold in order to retain their draft pick. Go Brewers!

Right. Because he isn't going to be traded...

Wasn't Greinke injured to open 2011? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

So for which of the contending teams would Anderson be a #1 or #2? He may be a TOR on this team but not a championship team, like it or not. Depending on the publication you look at, Anderson finished with a WAR of 4.07 which was 18th in the league. Higher than the likes of Dallas Kuechel and Yu Darvish, among many others. He also missed almost two months so if you add in those starts based on his 2017 work as a whole, it would have been ever higher.

The only similarities between Archer and Yelich is the amount of control and a below market contract. Archer is not young. He'd be under contract through his mid-thirties, while Yelich is under contract for the rest of his prime years. Not to mention pitchers are much more volatile in general. Archer would be a far bigger risk than Yelich was. Preach.

I think so...I'd be interested in looking at more than just archer's stat rates in these departments to see if he's an outlier or if many other good pitchers saw this happen. Look at the league wide trend to adjust swing launch angles and throw caution to the wind over striking out over recent years for your answer. There was a huge increase league wide in hrs over the past two seasons that happened to occur at the same time archer's hr rate also increased (along with a ton of good pitchers with a large body of work to compare year over year rates) archers k rate has also progressively increased, not due to better stuff per se, but due to a league wide change in approach. When he gets hit he gives up some hrs, but he still misses a ton of bats - his 2017 numbers were skewed lower due to a couple blow up starts, including one in early Sept where he missed a start or was pushed back afterwards due to fatigue, I believe. Frankly, my concern with archer isn't over last year's stats, it's the concern of late season arm fatigue that could be a precursor to significant injury. Bottom line, who has been the rays opening day starter since price left? Archer or cobb? That tells you how they viewed those arms in terms if who was better. Stating that cobb would've overtaken archer had he not gotten injured a bunch of times is the reason archer is more valuable. We rolled out Wily Peralta as an opening day starter once and gave the ball to Gallardo over Greinke in 2011

Because it is. Take anyone of Anderson/Davies/Chacin and put them in the rotation for Arizona/LA/Chicago/Washington and tell me which one, unequivocally, is not a back end option for those teams. What about Colorado? New York? You don't need an all star rotation but it would be nice to have AN all star in the rotation. Pointing to the Royals as the exception that proves the rule isn't going to convince me. By and large, contenders have TOR arms at the top of their rotation. Not guys the HOPE can be TOR arms. Like it or not, Anderson is a TOR arm. I think he has proved that the second half of 2016 and all of 2017.

The negativity is earned by this franchise. Outside of a couple of small bursts this franchise has been pretty hapless. They have a legitimate opportunity and don't seem to be in a hurry to maximize that opportunity. OK, I trust Stearns to make the right decision but frankly I'm not sure this is one of the five or six best teams in the league. Heck, I'm not even sure this is a top three rotation in the division. Stearns vision has always been to build a sustainable, competitive team. The moves this off-season are not just for 2018, they are for the next 4-5 years. This isn't the Doug Melvin era were we trade away our farm to get Sabathia and Grienke and go "all-in" for that year alone and then go through a period of rebuilding. Stearns is not going to strap this club financially to a long term deal on a pitcher the wrong side of 30, and he is not going to trade away his farm for Chris Archer. Standing pat allows for in-season moves and when teams under-achieve this year, there will be more players available at the deadline.

I don't disagree with you on this. I think they are fine with the roster that they have right now if they have to. They are being patient, and they should be. If the right deal comes available, they will do it. It's just harder for us as fans because we want to see movement but we just may not get it. And in the end, that may be okay too. I feel like folks think I'm frustrated with the fact they haven't acquired a pitcher. I'm not. I'm not at convinced that standing pat isn't the right move. It may well be the right move. My point is that if they were going to spend the resources for Cain/Yelich you would have thought they would have had a better read on the pitching market. Why waste a year of Cain/Yelich with a clearly inferior pitching staff? Why does everyone think this staff, as currently constructed, is inferior? Anderson, Davies, and Chacin are solid pitchers and if Anderson can replicate what he has done the last year and a half then this is an above average top 3. Woodruff should continue to develop and will be a solid #4 and Guerra/Gallardo/Miley will be more than serviceable as a #5. Not to mention Nelson returning in June (though I am not counting on the pitcher he was last year). Fans seem to think you need this All-Star starting rotation in order to compete but that is just one aspect of the team. You have an extremely improved lineup, both offensively and defensively, and you have a great bullpen with Knebel, Hader, and Barnes, not to mention the great year that Albers had last year. It's 2018, this is a bullpen game. I would much rather have a lock down bullpen than a great starting rotation. Look at what the Royals did in 2015. Their rotation was average at best but their bullpen was lights out.

I'm expecting, well, hoping, something in between 2016 and 2017

No, you need to re-evaluate your methods of player evaluation. Am I doing it right? Archer's future doesn't look bright. He's showing lots of signs of age-related regression. Trading multiple good prospects for him would be a terrible idea. It's probably the worst option available. He's 29 and his velocity increased from 2016 to 2017. I'm not seeing the age related regression in his stats. He didn't have a great year last year but I don't see any age related connection to his performance. I'm not sure you'd find a single person in the MLB who thinks Cobb is anywhere close to as good as Archer. Every pitchers velocity increased last year due to how it was being tracked. His hard contact rate has increased every year since 2013. He throws a lot of innings and Ks people at a higher than average rate, but he isn't worth the prospects people are proposing. We aren't getting Corey Kluber or Max Scherzer here. Let's be honest, I would be excited for either Cobb or Archer. Both have risk involved, its just a matter of whether the Brewers want to take a financial risk with Cobb or prospect risk with Archer. Losing a draft pick to sign Cobb would also have to factor in. Lots of things to work through and I trust Stearns is being very meticulous about this and I will trust his judgement.

Let's please not go down the road of thinking a higher K rate pitcher is better than a lower K rate pitcher. Greg Maddux had a career 6.1 K/9.

I love this, pick any 3, maybe 4, of anybody not named Burnes or Phillips and you have a deal with me for Archer, if you can sign Cobb and Walker along with it. Let's get it done Obviously I'm meaning Santana + prospects One of Dubon or Huira would go. Huira should have a quick rise through the system and Dubon is just about there and you cant keep both.

Well, yeah, but...

I'm guessing it would be a non-starter without including Burnes. Santana/Phillips, Burnes, Dubon, Ortiz seems more on par with what they would probably expect. No thanks, take Cobb instead.

Since the Yankees no longer need a 2B I would rather us sign Cobb and Walker. I think Walker's market is becoming narrower and narrower and he may just fall to us at a fairly discounted rate. Why not all 3? Make everyone happy. Archer is good, but I really don't understand the love affair. I surely do not see us giving up the kind of prospects people have speculated for him. Do you think Stearns really views Archer as so much better than Cobb where he would be willing to give up multiple top prospects when he already sent a bunch to Miami? I do not.

Now that the three team trade takes the Yankees out of the Neil Walker sweepstakes, I can't help but think he may come back to the Brewers. His market is getting awfully narrow and he just may fall into our price range. I would 100% rather have Cobb + Walker than Arrieta or a trade for Archer.

Since the Yankees no longer need a 2B I would rather us sign Cobb and Walker. I think Walker's market is becoming narrower and narrower and he may just fall to us at a fairly discounted rate.

One less team for Walker...he might fall right into the Brewers laps

I think we as fans need to brace for the fact that Stearns may not sign one of the top three pitchers. He made a comment that any free agent signing has to move the needle. I think he has a lot of confidence in Woodruff/Suter/Guerra/Gallardo/Miley to round out the 4th and 5th spots. Throughout all of these posts it seems not many people are taking into consideration that signing one of the remaining SPs will forfeit a draft pick. In my mind this is a pretty big flag for Stearns. Small market teams need those picks and those picks can turn into trade pieces in the future. I think we need to realistically accept that we are going into the year with what we have and hoping that Nelson can find his form and act as a trade deadline pickup.