HarveysWBs

So, I’ve been out of country for the last two weeks and not really paying attention to baseball until I got back last night. As it happens, that was fortuitous timing, as it seems the Crew is playing the worst ball of the season thus far. Considering this, I may sound a bit like a new recruit getting cycled into a battle-hardened unit of veterans (“you weren’t there, man!” and all that), but my first thought is: did everyone think this wasn’t going to happen at some point? This is baseball. Remember the five game sweep by the Pirates last year? What if the brass would have done something crazy like dealing Yelich at that point? What a tragedy, and we all may have never even known what we missed. My other thought is: the growth of baseball players and teams is often not linear. I know the comparison is far too pat, with Stearns’ former connections to the organization and the fact that Houston is now a far more accomplished franchise, but I’m reminded of the 2016 Astros. They were coming off a rousing completion of their rebuild, made a nice little playoff run the year before, had a great core intact, and expectations were high. Instead, they took a surprising step backwards and finished a distant third in their division, missing the playoffs entirely. Now, of course, they knew they still had something special, kept making improvements, and have had a great couple of years since, highlighted by a title. So I have to admit I’m floored by the talk of selling at this point. That is an astoundingly premature take on the situation, I think. Sure, I get this is the IGT, but c’mon. There will be plenty of time before the trade deadline to further evaluate the team’s potential this season, and the Crew shouldn’t do anything to jeopardize next year under any circumstances. That would be the height of foolishness, and I see no reason to fear such foolishness from this organization at this point. Let’s wait and see. EDIT: and re-reading this, I want to be clear that I’m not accusing anyone of seriously advocating dealing Yelich, but rather bringing up a hypothetical from last year’s low point for effect. Forgive the rhetorical excess.

Nice job, kid!

HUGE K! Wow

Wait, wait. This kid’s name is Rookie? How have I not heard of this yet?

I think Woody could use a dinger here. Go get it, big fella.

Even a HR here is hardly a knockout. Chance to take he lead, certainly.

And the narrative gets stronger with that bases-clearing double

I’m not saying this is what is going to happen, but if the Brewers brass wanted an excuse to send down Hiura for Shaw in a few days, Hiura’s defense, despite his effective bat, would seem to be a tailor-made narrative.

Man, I think it’s time for Chacin to “come down with something,” especially if Nelson is looking ready (I know, but if).

It is in fact true that Bellinger wasn't part of a package for Braun. The prospects were of lower quality. I don’t have any inside information, and it was a while ago, but I seem to recall reports from either journalists or industry analysts to the effect that Brewers brass insisted on Bellinger, and the Dodgers said no. Maybe I’m not remembering correctly, though, or perhaps it’s all BS; but it makes for a fun story. Bellinger was well-regraded as a prospect, but was not expected to be a superstar, so it sounds like a credible ask on the Brewers’ part. Oh well—myths and legends...

I’ll still keep Braun. I'm thinking I'd pull the trigger. 15 WAR pace 23 year old might solve our problems at 1st. Just extrapolating Bellinger’s stat line while playing half his games at Miller qualifies as indecent public behavior in most states. I’m not sure what drives me crazier: missing Trout by one spot in the draft, or not getting Bellinger for Braun two years ago. That decision by the Dodgers might go down as one of the all-time best “no” calls in trade history. What a heartbreaker for us.

He’s a great clubhouse presence by all accounts, he’s got the title everyone else on the team is chasing, and of course the numbers are great right now. We know Miller plays small for lefty power; it helped make Thames a serviceable major leaguer and Yelich went from borderline all-star to bona-fide superstar. All of this makes Moose a great fit. I love Moose, but—forgive me for noticing—he’s a streaky player who is prone to brutal stretches where he pops it up at an alarming rate. His career pop-up rate is 16% (for comparison, Shaw is just over half that at 9%). If the Brewers commit to him at corner infield and expect to hit him in the middle of the order, I’d want to feel a bit better about the consistency of his approach at the plate. And, if we’re excited about a sample this size in 2019, why aren’t we troubled now by his 2018 post-trade sample of equal size? Recency bias is easy to fall into here. Paying for career numbers after age 30 rarely works out well, especially for small clubs. That being said, if Shaw is done (and could we even know that for sure by the end of the year?) and/or Hiura isn’t what we expected (same question?), we should all be happy to have Moose. But those are all some big ifs at this point.

VanVleet with the game of his life. Unbelievable

So I tuned in tonight to see what this bucks stuff was all about. I picked a bad night. This is some bad basketball.

Considering the quality of opponents, I’ll file this .500 road trip under “solid” and move on to better days ahead. This team should only get better, assuming health. Keep the faith.

Moose galloped a bit too hard there

Cain got absolutely railroaded. Wow

Making Babe Ruth reborn bunt again? I normally don’t question strategy, but let the kid mash!

Hiura records his first out, but it was so well-placed, mega-star Harper had to sacrifice life and limb to get it. The legend continues.

I really hope you are right, because that would mean Hiura is killing it in the bigs by the end of the season (I won't contemplate the possibility of all of Moustakas, Grandal, Braun, and Gamel falling off a cliff offensively, which would be the other scenario in which Hiura would hit third). I have no idea how one would find statistical evidence for such a thing, but a rookie being made a #3 hitter on a contender has to be pretty darn rare.

Literally no one is saying that. Come on guys ... this is a cool event. Don't turn it into another pissing match. There is no fault in keeping expectations tempered. I'm excited! All he has to do is be better than Shaw and Perez, and he'll help the Brewers win games right now. We won't know if he's a star for two or three more years, but the title window is now, and he should help right now. What isn't to like?

Forget the age factor, he had a K rate of less than 10% the last two years combined and after being promoted spike to over 20%. Hiura is debuting with a K rate of nearly 30%. Kid destroyed and overperformed for his age at every stop. Not sure why it wasn't expected for him to over perform at the MLB level compared to a normal rookie. Big jump yes, but Guerrero Jr. was no normal guy. I will temper my expectations for a guy who gets fanned at a high rate at AAA. Not sure why going to the MLB level will help that much and guys striking out 30% of the time don't typically provide much of meaning. It is really hard to predict how a guy will do when making the jump. Some guys sprint out of the gate and some don't. Some surprise compared to expectations and some obviously disappoint. Hopefully he looks competent. I agree that Hiura could struggle, and speaking for myself, I will only be disappointed if he comes up and is only subpar at the plate relative to other second basemen. For that position, I figure "average" is around 90 OPS+. For comparison, Perez is OPS+ 88 for the season, so to me, this move is a win if Hiura is better than Perez. I think that is a very reasonable expectation, and while he may see a big spike in his strikeout rate at the MLB level like Vlad Jr., I wouldn't take Hiura's 30% K-rate so far this year as necessarily indicative of who he is going forward. It seems he saw an early spike as he adjusted to AAA pitching, but has since leveled off his K/BB% quite nicely. So, long story short, I expect Hiura to play a lot and probably strike out a bit more than we'd like (and more than he's used to), but make strides in that area if given the playing time to adjust. He should at least be marginally better than Perez, and way better than 2019 Shaw (OPS+ 46, yuck!), and that is something everyone should be excited about. Whether he is a star, though, is anyone's guess. But it should be fun to find out.

I keep telling myself that all they have to do is get through the next couple weeks, and it will be time to sink their teeth into that tender June schedule. Yeah, I think there are some encouraging signs, still. The pitching is stabilizing a bit after a horrendous start, and despite only plating four runs so far tonight, the offense has been fairly productive. Under normal circumstances, getting sixteen men on will be a pretty good showing. But tonight is just a bit of an exception.

Perez looks like a utility player out there in the corner—he’s not exactly a natural. And I’m starting to think it wasn’t just the compensatory pick keeping Grandal’s price down this winter. My goodness. This first quarter of the season has been some kind of trial, and the Crew isn’t doing itself any favors.

If you pour it on too much, the beer gets all foamy. They have the right approach.