Like I’ve said before, expecting this team to win is bad for my health, and I’m always much happier when I expect a loss and am pleasantly surprised. That being said, I’ve actually talked myself into expecting a win here, or at least a very narrow loss.
The Lions have looked very mortal of late, and have an absolutely ridiculous 7 preferred defensive starters out/on IR. They are still deep and well-coached, they have excellent (if at times reckless) safeties, and no doubt Za’Darius Smith is motivated to stick it to us again if he can, but we should have advantages on that side of the ball. Pound them with Jacobs, see if he stays hot in the red zone, and then burn them with play action, and I think the offense hums.
On the other side, I am a little worried this thing turns into a barn burner. I will say that I think our defense is playing well, and a repeat of last week’s strategy wouldn’t shock me. Ja is still out, so I could see Hafley building another shell to force the Lions to get all their yards underneath and over the middle. Goff, like Tagovailoa, gets the ball out quickly, but I heard on a podcast this week that Goff is throwing it about a quarter to a half second slower over the last month than the first part of the season. I think we’ll line Gary up over their backup left tackle and hope that split second makes a difference.
If the Packers play it clean, I think they’re a coin toss at minimum, and win or lose, I’m fine with just knowing they can beat the Lions in Detroit, should it be relevant in January. If Goff gets pressured and has a couple turnovers, though, I wonder if the Packers win this thing comfortably. And then come the Bills into Detroit next week, and my how different the narrative starts to look then…
But it has to start tonight.