HarveysWBs

If MLF doesn’t get over the hump with Hafley, he won’t get another do-over. I’ve made my position known elsewhere, so I won’t reiterate the depths of my skepticism. Nothing for it now but to hope I’m wrong, but they aren’t making it easy.

Let's just see what happens after Hoskins walks it off in game 7 of the World Series this year.

Assuming Badgley is indeed a coin flip from that distance, I would go every time for that first 4th down. Odds of converting the 1st down can't be much worse than 50/50, I'd imagine, and considering the upshot if you do convert is at worst you've run more time off the clock and slightly better field position, mid outcome of a shorter FG attempt, and best outcome is 21 point lead with just over a quarter left to go? All gas, no brakes, baby. Peppers giving the stop sign lost the 2014 NFC Championship game. I wouldn't ever want to lose that way again (though I'll note that, as a Packers fan, I have no shortage of interesting ways to lose from which to choose from in my memory). Deliver the kill shot when it is available and let the chips fall where they may. Play that game again with the Lions still getting stopped on that 4th down and I bet they win eight or nine times out of ten. It was the right call.

Narrator: they did not.

Catch the balls Purdy throws to you and you blow the Niners out. Don’t, and you give them life. It’s pretty simple.

From an Athletic article that is of course paywalled: That does not discount your other points. You may be right that what LaFleur has been looking for all this time is someone to run Fangio’s system like Vic himself, and not a lesser imitation. But he, and the rest of the Shanahan tree, has apparently viewed the Fangio defense as something of a form of cryptonite, and thus wants it on their team. It is not a coincidence that Staley was his first interview.

What follows is a general response to others’ response to my original post about the Staley rumor, not all directed at @areacodes. Specifically to his points, the Leonhard choice, if reports about it are to be believed, would be encouraging, But when that didn’t work, LaFleur fell back into his old habits. And what worries me about Staley is just this continuation of a trend, which is that LaFleur targets people he knows, which is fine so far as it goes (even understandable), but the problem is he seems to then stick with his guys long after it should be apparent they aren’t making the grade. Staley, based on the connections I listed above, seems to be another one of his guys. If we get even more of a defense ranked in the 20s in the leading metrics, how long is he going to stick with him? How many early postseason exits would it take? And look, I’m not making any grand predictions here. What the heck do I know about any of this? All these guys have forgotten more than I’ll ever know. The Fangio system has been around long enough to gather some pelts for the wall. But how’s it doing lately? Staley couldn’t get it done in LA. Desai got canned in Philly. Barry seemed to do less with more than any DC in recent memory. And the patriarch himself was shown the door in Miami. If the brain trust figures it is best to keep the same system in place, I get the logic. But we say we shouldn’t discount Staley’s only good year coming with otherworldly talent (to @LouisEly’s point)? He had Bosa and Mack and watched helplessly while his unit gave up 63 to the Raiders of all teams. I don’t have any detailed film analysis for you, but yeah, I’m worried. I see I’m in the minority, so I don’t want to belabor the point. All I’m offering here is a personal vibe check. I want to be the first to admit I was way wrong if he delivers a top ten defense in Green Bay. Nothing would make me happier, in fact. I like LaFleur, and I want him to succeed here, and I think finding a great D coordinator would at last shore up what has been probably the gravest weakness of his tenure. But my point is, I’ve seen enough self-sabotage in the last twenty-five seasons to stop expecting good things, especially on defense, and especially when it matters most. For my own sanity, if nothing else, I have to expect present trends to continue. But it slightly heartens me to see so many others see it so differently. May it be so.

Maybe so. But considering what we know about LaFleur, namely, he likes the Fangio system, he likes people he knows, and he likes people who have ties to the Rams when he was there, I’d say Staley looks like the leader in the clubhouse.

This is why I just can no longer be an optimist about the Packers. Is that arrogant to say about a team that is, by multiple measures, one of the most successful in American sports history? Yes, but it’s the truth. This team demonstrates incredible competence in key areas that keeps it constantly competitive. Namely, they have a stable organization that is not at the whims of geriatric owners with bond-villain egos, they handle salaries well, generally find excellent value players and manage contracts well, have a preternatural knack for identifying QB talent, and subsequently attract generally bright offensive minds to the organization. The above gets us anywhere between 70-90% of the way to the title nearly every year. But I have to stop hoping and wishing they will ever consistently figure out the rest. I’ve seen too many years end one of two ways: either our “better-than-you’d-think!” value guys can’t compete with elite talent on the other side, OR weaknesses on special teams, defense, or both torpedo games that we have absolutely no business losing. Staley, in my opinion, would be yet another example of scenario B. His only claim to fame was a single year as DC of the Rams (2020) when he had peak cheat-code Donald and Ramsey headlining a defense that was so deep in the front that he never had to blitz and looked like a genius. That ain’t going to be the 2024 Packers, so I would expect another Fangio/Barry retread performance. I like LaFleur. I think he’s a very good coach. But if we just do more of the same on defense (and he doesn’t figure out how to call stinking timeouts in end of half scenarios) we aren’t going to get there under this regime. I can’t keep hoping anymore. So I won’t.

This is the kind of news I needed after Saturday. Hecking yeah. Let’s go beat some Cubs.

Indeed, the one time I remember Love under center in this game was when Myers stepped on him, picked up a holding call, and Jones fumbled the pitch all in one play. I’d have probably been scared into the gun after that, too.

It’s funny, but the Cousins comp probably is just about Love’s floor…

This is exactly my worst fear right now. All this good news means we soon get back to being exactly what we were for the last twenty years: an offensive-minded organization that can run up gaudy win totals in the regular season but forgets to account for the fact that we play in sloppy outdoor conditions in the postseason, especially with homefield advantage, and will never play complete performances against the top-flight opponents in January. This is like something Dante would imagine for a circle of Hell, or the ancient Greeks to punish hubris. How much better is it really to be a Packers fan than a team that only makes the playoffs once in a while but doesn’t have to feel entitled or beat any expectations? How many times do we have to roll that cursed boulder up that blasted hill and get crushed by it right before the top?

I’d quibble with calling him “solid”—he missed quite a few throws he can and should make before that. And in a game this close, all of those are killers, not just the picks. He was so unconscious going into this, I’m trying not to overreact here. In a sense, he played well enough to win this game, but not nearly as well as he can and should play. But I completely agree with your sentiment on losing this game, to that team. I’m done with that, and don’t want to see this movie anymore. They need to get this monkey off their back, and it’s starting to feel like they may never do it. I might not watch the next time we draw them in the postseason. It’s probably better for my health.

Best case scenario, it’s a blip, he gets better, and this fourth quarter performance knocked a few mil off his asking price…

Never know what a guy really is until you see the postseason pressure on them. Not a good first introduction.

Yeah, on the one hand, all the upward trends and positives remain true, but…I’ve got scars, man. Really could have used a reason to think this team wouldn’t die the same old death again.

Yeah, it’d be cool to make a playoff run with our best lineman healthy the whole way again someday…

Can’t do that, Love. Time to grow

Sigh. So gosh darn close

There’s Carlson, just the worst time…

Ooooh baby

This is the drive of the year. Need the best

He’ll learn. They all will. They’re going to be better after this, I think. But it suck’s they’re so close right now…

Love is a bit off today. Understandable but disappointing.