HarveysWBs

Yeah, I get it, and if Frelick keeps doing that I think Chourio has to be the guy by default. But it is one thing to say that we have a system full of defenders who can all play center (which got brought up a lot the last few years), but really, the best ones are probably Wiemer, Mitchell, and if he ever puts it together, Chourio in some order. Perkins is great, obviously, but not with the stick. I’d suspect Frelick will end up considered the weakest of the lot defensively, though not for a lack of effort. I think there’s a reason he was the one seeing time in the infield, after all.

I also agree with betting the over. And I’m actually not all that worried about the drop off from Counsell to Murphy. I think his experience, especially with this group, will keep things on a more or less even keel. My biggest worry is that someone in the division has a huge lead by the trade deadline and the brass sells off to stockpile just a little more for 2025-2032. A .500 team that sees some veteran pieces (Adames, Hoskins, maybe even Contreras?) shipped out could be devastating in the short term, and the bottom might fall out for the second half. Apart from injuries, that’s worst case scenario for 2024, in my mind. But, as you say, spring is the time for optimism. Put me down for 86 wins and a wild card berth. And they finish ahead of the Cubs.

Sports gambling is still illegal in California, hence the “illegal bookie” angle. As such, that part doesn’t add any further intrigue to me. If Ippei was going to gamble, by definition, the bookie had to be illegal. What gets weird then is, if Shohei Ohtani knowingly covered payment, then he actively paid for something illegal, even if he himself didn’t gamble. I’m not a lawyer, but I’m pretty sure that is why the story changed so quickly. What blows my mind is why the Shohei camp didn’t do everything in their power to shut down Ippei’s interview with ESPN. I mean, the guy sat down for an optional 90-minute interview to discuss something that directly impacted the player who may now be the biggest star in world sports? All the ways that could go south are too numerous to count. All of the above makes me think Shohei Ohtani had a guy he trusted who he should not have, and, being a good friend who has recently come into a massive amount of money, did his guy a solid. That solid appears to be at least a legal gray area, if not an out and out crime, and his legal team and publicists have now quickly tried to protect their client with the accusation of “massive theft.” I generally do not attribute to malevolence what is more easily attributed to ignorance and incompetence. It will be interesting to see what else comes from this. As of now, MLB is not actively investigating (and for now, they can fall back on the position of waiting for the legal investigation to run its course first), but with so many powerful interests aligned behind Shohei’s ultimate exoneration, this is going to be talked about for a long time no matter what decision is rendered. While I don’t relish the idea of anyone committing any wrongdoings or going to prison, as someone who is no fan of the Dodgers or their ridiculous contractual shenanigans with Shohei, I’d be lying if I said a little egg on some faces is not a welcome sight.

Assuming they don’t bring in another starter from outside of the organization, I don’t know how they get through April without him up. They play thirteen days in a row from 4/5 through 4/17. I will be shocked if he hasn’t had at least his cup of coffee by that point.

This is kind of where I am, too, after rolling this around in my head for a while. We may never know the whole story, but if it was a question of Gutekunst (and LaFleur) being firm in their conviction that Jones isn’t really a RB#1 anymore because of his health availability but is probably the best “Robin” to somebody’s Batman in the NFL, and Jones just isn't ready to accept that—then I can come to terms with how this went down. If, however, it was simply a question of Jones wanted one million more and would have been ok as the change of pace guy for Jacobs at a 7 mil rate, then Gutekunst just committed malpractice, because that’s the best backfield in football and that offense is a juggernaut next year. This seems so obvious that I have to think Jones just was not going to come back once Jacobs was signed, but I don’t know. Maybe the idea of having a year on turf was attractive for him, since his best performances are on the fast track. As an aside, on the Green 19 pod (JS online), Spoon mentioned that Jones could have been a Leroy Butler, forever Packer type. He mentioned at one point that he could have “lived like a king” in Wisconsin as a fan favorite and done commercials for the rest of his life and transitioned into a emeritus position with the org after his playing days are over…and I actually laughed out loud. It is safe to say that most of us here love the Midwest in general and Wisconsin in particular, but the idea that a millionaire like Jones who could go live anywhere he wants would find being “king of Wisconsin” in his retirement is a huge draw amused me. He’s been a great guy for this org and the community, but it never occurred to me that he wanted to be a true lifer. And now we know that was never really likely.

Yeah, the vicissitude of reliever performance usually has a way of sorting these messes out. Or at least revealing that you don’t have an in-house solution to the mess at all. One of the two.

I hate having to root against him, but yeah, the current trajectories of the franchises suggest we’re going to beat them like rented mules next year, so it makes little difference what anybody’s feelings are on the subject. He ended up going to a loser, albeit on a one-year deal. That is the saddest part for me, actually: if he was going to leave, I was hoping somebody would throw a multi-year deal at him. I thought maybe one of the Texas teams, but Houston is too well-run now (shock) and McCarthy never appreciated him anyway. I get the economics of it all, but I hate him in purple and at only one year, seven mil—we’re essentially paying him to play against us. It just hurts.

Sigh…

When Gute has money in his pocket and decides the team needs a shot in the arm (or even both arms), he doesn’t wait around. Still more work to do, but the draft picture got clarified a bit today.

Well, it is Jordan Love’s locker room now. No one else had the kind of cachet Jones did, especially on offense. Truly an end of an era now, and I’m sorry to see it go. I understand the why, there are reasons for the rule of the running back expiration date at 30, but Jones seems like the kind of guy who could drag the hands of the clock backwards for another year or two. I would have liked him for one more season as the team completely transitions into Love’s hands, but resources aren’t endless. It’ll be interesting to see what happens next.

So I didn’t know about the NFLPA report cards for teams until just now, but I find the results slightly surprising. While the Packers are highly regarded overall (ranking 3rd in composite score), I was not expecting players’ opinions of Matt LaFleur to have been as low as they are. I’ve often heard him described as more of a “player’s coach,” but despite a B+ overall grade, he rates 26th overall (out of the 32 head coaches last year) in terms of willingness “to listen to the locker room.” I’m not going to make a big deal out of what seems like a pretty informal survey—the rating for head coaches apparently boils down to two questions, which seems miles away from being statistically significant, among other limitations—but that part still surprised me. Good to see all the facility investments paying off in terms of player satisfaction, at any rate. It makes for a short, but interesting read.

Ha. That’s what losing with your defense on the field feels like. Enjoy

MVS, my guy…

Now we see who Purdy and Shanny really are.

No complaints about Jones’ usage down the stretch. LaFleur grew this year. Or Love didn’t audible out of a bunch of run plays this year.

Good for MVS, who nearly dropped it.

Best halftime show since Bruno Mars. #changemymind

^JJ in high school, probably.

This game kinda sucks. The Chiefs playing so badly makes me low-key mad.

I swear I’ve had this argument before (and it may have been with you, idk, I can’t find the old post and I feel like I’m in the twilight zone already), but your definition of “market” just hurts my brain. When I say or hear “market,” I don’t mean or think two parties deciding what it will take to get a deal done. That is a transaction. A market involves multiple transactions, which indicates current trends, and thus allows for the possibility of overpaying or underpaying. For example, relievers A, B, C, and D are free agents, all with roughly comparable ages, experience levels, stats, and projections. A and B sign deals averaging $5 million per year. Richie Rich the GM decides to ink reliever C at $50 mil per. That is an overpay. Now, on the one hand, if you want to be bleedingly literal about it, yes, that was the rate settled on for reliever C at that particular moment. But that description is of limited analytical utility and you have buried the lede. The important thing is that reliever C got the deal of a lifetime and that Richie Rich should be out of a job. Using your definition of “market rate” obscures that point. Outliers exist, and we should be able to account for them.

Question: how do you define an above- or below-market free agent deal?

Yeah, the timing alone makes that hard to believe. Like we would have offered him the job before he could even get in for an interview? I’m not buying it. I don’t follow the transaction rumors for other teams, but it certainly feels like we’re the subject of more than our fair share of these “oh, the Packers were/are interested in my guy” bs rumors. Seems like agents just constantly throw the Packers out there for any even remotely plausible fit as part of their effort to squeeze a few more points out of negotiations with the real suitors.

Were I the brewers, I’d aim to keep Williams at least until the deadline (only trading if we were out of it), go for major depth in the rotation, and just aim to be a better version of 2018. A team with stellar defense and relief, no holes in the lineup (assuming Chourio doesn’t face plant and we now have ample alternatives to Turang), and enough decent starters to handle inevitable attrition from the most glass-bodied position in sports is a formula that can go places—and on a budget, to boot. Probably the best we can hope for in 2024, anyway.

So do the A’s really like one of these guys, or…isn’t that how this is supposed to work?