HarveysWBs

Man the Panthers are silly. They must be really sure they’ve got a bead on an awesome QB. Not sure I’d take that shot on this class. The Rodgers haul is going to be a tad underwhelming after this, methinks.

There’s a lot of fog of war type stuff floating around right now, so it is hard to know anything for sure. Personally, I think both sides are motivated enough to make sure a deal gets done (assuming 12 doesn’t get squishy in the next few days or something weird). But I find it immensely humorous that Jets Twitter is increasingly under the impression that the delay is owing to Woody Johnson being a tightwad and squeezing the Packers on Rodgers’ salary. As a Brewers fan, the overlap between Woody Johnson discourse and Mark Attanasio discourse tickles me.

You are absolutely correct, I spaced it and did not stick the landing on my breakdown at all--which is why nobody pays me for this. So, continuing the back of the envelope math, we can speculate as to the hit we'll take on additional draft picks using the estimates put out by overthecap.com. Assuming dealing Rodgers now and keeping all our current draft picks puts us more or less at the salary cap, every pick added puts us over the cap and would require a subsequent cut that at least matches their cap number. The Jets' 1st round pick (#13) is projected to have a cap hit of $3.4m in 2023. Their 2nd round pick (#43): $1.6m. 3rd round (#74): $1m. Just for fun, here's the cap hits for each of the top three picks for some other possible landing spots: Raiders: (#7) $4.8m, (#38) $1.7m, (#70) $1m Dolphins: (no 1st, punished for the Brady tampering fiasco), (#51) $1.3m, (#77) $1m Panthers: (#9) $4.2m, (#39) $1.7m, (#61) $1.1m Titans: (#11) $3.8m, (#41) $1.6m, (#72) $1m Colts: (#4) $6.6m, (#35) $1.8m, (#79) $1m So, all in all, trading him now seems pretty financially viable. The complicating factor would be if the buying team starts to get cute and expect Gutey and Ball to pick up some of Rodgers' salary, or if Rodgers balks at restructuring his deal for the buying team, which would (presumably) lower our draft pick haul considerably.

Ok, so Ken Ingalls is the best source I know of for this stuff, and he had a detailed breakdown in his 2023 preview article. Basically: -If Rodgers returns to GB this year, he costs $31.62m against the cap, and that is unalterable. If he then leaves the team next year, his cap hit would have to immediately account for dead money at $60.21m, and $76.8m if he leaves in 2025. Hence, a return is financially unpalatable to the brass, to say the least. - If he retires, the team would do whatever it takes to ensure Rodgers cooperated with coordinating the retirement to happen post-June 1st, which would mean splitting his $40.31m dead cap hit out at $15.83 this year and $24.48. Otherwise, the whole amount goes against the ‘23 cap. For reasons discussed elsewhere and in light of recent events, the retirement scenario seems least likely of all, so we can simply move on to trades. - A trade pre-June 1st would result in the above-mentioned $40.31 dead cap hit for this year, BUT we’d be able to get 2023 draft picks back if the deal was consummated before the draft in April. - A trade post-June 1st allows for the same $15/25m cap split as the retirement scenario. - Either trade scenario means the acquiring team has Rodgers at only $15.79m against the cap this year, which is nice, because his subsequent cap hits are far less team friendly. What does this all mean for the 2023 cap if he’s traded now? Ingalls projects (on his pinned tweet) that we’d have $9.1m in cap space after our draft with the picks currently in hand and no more FA deals or restructures (this number would obviously be smaller if we got high picks back in a trade). In short, we would need to close a 30-40m gap. I leave it to others to speculate how we would do that. (This last sentence is obviously wrong on the math. See Chorizo's correction below.)

Working on the theory that if Rodgers comes back, Love probably won’t: the need to use a higher pick on a QB skyrockets in the event Rodgers returns, right? There’s a ton of pressure on this draft, because the team is either in transition this year or next, you’d have to think. So Gute has to plan for both the possibility of a reload AND a soft rebuild. If it’s the season of Love, then you can draft for a rebuild while you see what the kid has, and get your cap situation straightened out a little. If Rodgers is back, I’d assume one or two needs have to be met via free agency, and whatever financial shenanigans or cap casualties have to happen to make that work probably happens (bye, Jones, you’ll be missed). Any solid FA safeties likely to be out there?

The saddest thing about this scenario being necessary? Among NL teams, the Brewers have the third-best record against teams that are currently above .500. Better than any of the wild card contenders, and better than even St. Louis. But the Cards, Braves, Phillies, and Padres have beat the ever living snot out of the bad teams, while the Brewers have just played with their food. And that's how you miss the playoffs. Of course, the Crew can partially make up for that with a very strong finish over the last week and a half. But it should never have been necessary in the first place.

The saddest thing about this scenario being necessary? Among NL teams, the Brewers have the third-best record against teams that are currently above .500. Better than any of the wild card contenders, and better than even St. Louis. But the Cards, Braves, Phillies, and Padres have beat the ever living snot out of the bad teams, while the Brewers have just played with their food. And that's how you miss the playoffs. Of course, the Crew can partially make up for that with a very strong finish over the last week and a half. But it should never have been necessary in the first place.

The ballsyness of this Hader trade just went from solid pair of huevos to massive coconuts. Speaking only from my own vantage point (as it seems much of the rest of the fan base has a shorter leash on this) Stearns has earned a huge amount of slack from me. But this...not only does Stearns have to be right that Rogers is a negligible downgrade from Hader rest of season, he absolutely has to have hit a home run with Ruiz, and hit at least a solid single with Gasser. And Ruiz should probably be on the big league club making a difference sooner rather than later. Otherwise, I don't think there's any way to paint this other than a loss... ...But it all seems so strange that it makes me wonder if the Brewers brass know Hader is kind of broken. Why else would they hurry to do this deal now and not in the offseason? If it doesn't stand a reasonable chance to improve the club immediately (meaning Ruiz contributes in the stretch run), getting Hader out while the getting is still good is the only logical explanation. I guess we'll find out over the next two months.

This is a weird trade on so many levels. Two (likely) playoff teams in the same league, the most dominant reliever in the game exchanging hands mid-year—and while the Brewers are amidst a division race and smack dab in the middle of their competitive window, and after the Brewers had fielded so many calls for years about Hader and always declined. Obviously, a multitude of questions come to mind: what do the Brewers know about Hader that makes them think now was the time to move him? What do they see in the (largely major-league ready) talent coming back that made them pull the trigger? Does the brass remain confident in the team’s chances for this year (hence the major-leaguers or major-league adjacent return)? Is this step one in a larger deadline strategy? I am a little underwhelmed at first blush, and I think that’s a factor of two elements: 1) I was gearing up for a winter trade, assuming we’d want Hader in the fold for the stretch run and playoffs at least on more time and 2) I kind of figured Hader would yield prospects as part of a build for the future type move. Basically, the timing surprised me a lot and is making me reevaluate my expectations a little. But more is sure to come.

Yeah I don’t follow CFB that closely, and had no idea about the domestic violence stuff. With Jarran Reed, that makes a couple potential land mines of bad behavior on the DL now. Not the kind of personnel decisions we’re used to seeing much of around here. I’m hoping for the best of course, but already wondering about Karlaftis.

I’m pretty pumped. I trust MLF and AR can make music with day 2 talent. What I haven’t seen in a good long while is a dominant front seven in Green Bay. This should be fun.

Age would not concern me much at this point. So a guy is 24. They don’t need to give him a second contract. Window is right now.

Gute did not hesitate sending in the pick here. Must love somebody out there, or else he’d still be fielding calls. Interesting.

This is nuts. Get your pass catchers when they’re cheap.

Not sure I even want to know what San Fran is asking for Deebo right now.

If you want what the Astros have, then be ready to lose 100+ for three seasons or more. That’s the price. Me though, I’ve seen enough bad baseball in Milwaukee to last a while. I don’t mind the window staying open for a while longer, even if it’s only half open.

The organizational ethos is depth and versatility. Injury and ineffectiveness have obliterated those qualities this year, and these trades can help get back to neutral on those fronts. I’d say a team that has performed as middlingly as the Brewers deserves nothing more or less than that. It’s up to the guys on the roster to do their jobs, and they’ll be competitive.

I think I can give the FO some more slack on this one. They have proven that they know what they have in the minors well enough to deal guys they aren’t going to miss. I can’t think of a Stearns trade involving prospects that shipped out a guy I really wish was still in Milwaukee. I think some may be reading a bit too much into Dubon’s ranking (which is wildly subjective, and diluted by a weak overall system in the minors right now) and AAA numbers (that are clearly inflated across the board). I don’t think he had nearly as much value in the eyes of other GM’s as he does around here, and we likely would have been disappointed by the return just about any team gave us—but that’s just speculation on my part. In the end, Dubon was a cool story, but not a cornerstone, and maybe not even an average regular player. To those who fear he was our last hope of replacing Arcia for years, I say no, there is another...