HarveysWBs

Ok, so Ken Ingalls is the best source I know of for this stuff, and he had a detailed breakdown in his 2023 preview article. Basically: -If Rodgers returns to GB this year, he costs $31.62m against the cap, and that is unalterable. If he then leaves the team next year, his cap hit would have to immediately account for dead money at $60.21m, and $76.8m if he leaves in 2025. Hence, a return is financially unpalatable to the brass, to say the least. - If he retires, the team would do whatever it takes to ensure Rodgers cooperated with coordinating the retirement to happen post-June 1st, which would mean splitting his $40.31m dead cap hit out at $15.83 this year and $24.48. Otherwise, the whole amount goes against the ‘23 cap. For reasons discussed elsewhere and in light of recent events, the retirement scenario seems least likely of all, so we can simply move on to trades. - A trade pre-June 1st would result in the above-mentioned $40.31 dead cap hit for this year, BUT we’d be able to get 2023 draft picks back if the deal was consummated before the draft in April. - A trade post-June 1st allows for the same $15/25m cap split as the retirement scenario. - Either trade scenario means the acquiring team has Rodgers at only $15.79m against the cap this year, which is nice, because his subsequent cap hits are far less team friendly. What does this all mean for the 2023 cap if he’s traded now? Ingalls projects (on his pinned tweet) that we’d have $9.1m in cap space after our draft with the picks currently in hand and no more FA deals or restructures (this number would obviously be smaller if we got high picks back in a trade). In short, we would need to close a 30-40m gap. I leave it to others to speculate how we would do that. (This last sentence is obviously wrong on the math. See Chorizo's correction below.)

That’s fair, but to the original question, from the perspective of the acquiring team, it probably depends on their needs and the “buddies” in question. There are a whole lot of teams out there that could use a left tackle that gave up zero sacks and practically no pressures this season. Oh, and who knows Rodgers’ mind better than any other lineman on the planet. Bakhtiari coming over with Rodgers is a totally different category than someone like Cobb or Mercedes Lewis. Yeah, he’d cost more in terms of money and draft capital, but he’s a difference maker. Add a functional #69 to either the 2020 or 2021 Packers teams, and they make at least one, if not two Super Bowls. And probably win them.

On a related point to “Rodgers’ first love is Rodgers,” I think with the Brady retirement news, we can dispel any notion of Rodgers retiring. As I said the first time Brady walked away, there is no way on this good earth Rodgers is going to share his retirement year—and more importantly, HOF enshrinement—with the one guy from his generation who overshadowed him. 0.0% chance of retirement now. The only question is where he plays.

My real takeaway from the AFC championship is that the game has apparently progressed beyond the ability of on-field referees to effectively manage. I mean, you’d think the NFL, with its billions, could invest in the best refs and ref training, but apparently not. So they need to do the alternative, which is a big leap in technological capabilities. They need video assisted referees that can overrule egregious mistakes in real time (and as long as they can implement this more successfully than VAR in European soccer—a low bar to clear!—it’s a win). And they need to be able to get ball spots down to a science already. If tennis can handle in and out calls digitally with cameras, the NFL can afford to get this thing figured out with cameras and sensors. This is ridiculous. At some point, it’s going to impact the confidence in the integrity of the game.

I don’t know how I feel about Mayer, as I never remember thinking he would be an athletic difference maker at the NFL level. For as nice of a college player he was, he just never looked like he was going to be able to separate against professional defenders, but I didn’t see him play more than a couple times last year. Putting that aside though, I’d be thrilled with loading up on weapons. It’s about dang time, and Love is going to need it. Also, if it’s a little pettiness on the part of the front office, that’s fine with me too. I’d say giving Aaron a little ribbing on his way out is fair play. He trashed them pretty hard in his press conference after the summer of discontent, and Mark Murphy and Gute would need to be pretty saintly not to want just a smidgeon of payback. In any event, it is time to invest in offense.

And an absolute career low-point moment for that Cincinnati linebacker. Yeesh. I’m sure Quay Walker feels like he’s got some cover now…

I for one am thrilled to see the 49ers crash out of the title game after blowing a bunch of draft capital on CMC, a talented but injury-prone running back (of all positions). Let’s see how smart the Niners brass looks when they still haven’t figured out their QB position and they have to start paying their studs who are nearing the end of their rookie deals.

I'm watching this Bills-Bengals game and I can't shake the feeling that it is a very familiar experience. Phenomenal quarterback that everyone absolutely raves about, years of regular season success, positive press abounding, home playoff game outside in January, but for all these positives, the whole team comes up small--especially the quarterback. They're losing big to a team that gets maybe half the attention, but seems to be better in these head-to-head matchups. Leaves you with the impression that the home team here is just good-but-not-great. I can't for the life of me figure out where I've seen this before, though...

Working on the theory that if Rodgers comes back, Love probably won’t: the need to use a higher pick on a QB skyrockets in the event Rodgers returns, right? There’s a ton of pressure on this draft, because the team is either in transition this year or next, you’d have to think. So Gute has to plan for both the possibility of a reload AND a soft rebuild. If it’s the season of Love, then you can draft for a rebuild while you see what the kid has, and get your cap situation straightened out a little. If Rodgers is back, I’d assume one or two needs have to be met via free agency, and whatever financial shenanigans or cap casualties have to happen to make that work probably happens (bye, Jones, you’ll be missed). Any solid FA safeties likely to be out there?

I mean, I’ve defended MLF all along, but if Barry is going to stay, and he’s going to hand over play calling, and he’s going to bring back Hackett (ostensibly to call plays)…what would MLF say, exactly, he does here? Didn’t we see this movie with McCarthy? I know nothing is set in stone, and nobody in this org makes emotional decisions, and that’s a plus. But I’m hoping these choices get their due diligence, to say the least.

Oh I can definitely see running things back (hopefully with Barry replaced) could lead to a fine season. But if they finish top tier, they play their playoff games at home at least for a week or two, and I’ve seen enough of January Rodgers to expect by now that, even when healthy, he probably won’t be at his best in those conditions. I was starting to convince myself that going on the road all the way this year with a turnover streaking defense could have some magic, but it wasn’t to be. So, what, next year we’d have to hope to be good but not too good in the regular season so we don’t have a home NFC championship game? And the rookie wideouts figure it out? And we get two new safeties that aren’t garbage, with one probably a rookie? And the defense gels almost immediately under a new scheme? And Gary makes a speedy recovery from ACL surgery? And Bakh’s knee holds up? And Rodgers whole body holds up? It feels like we’re trying to shoot the wings off a fly while riding a racehorse—it seems like a really narrow window. If someone comes calling with two 1sts+ for Rodgers, I think the answer has to be thanks for the memories. And I bet there’s somebody in this league that would do that, and I’d imagine Vegas can’t do it fast enough.

For the first time in twenty years, I don’t feel like we’re a piece or two away, at the most. They don’t pay me to make these decisions for a good reason, but I’m down for an organizational shift. I know that having a physical identity does not exactly guarantee anyone a title (Rams and Bengals last year are pretty strong examples of the finesse approach), but I’m ready for a defense and ground/play action approach. We play outside, and we always will, and we need to stop acting like that doesn’t matter. If that means we shake up the whole show, then I’m at peace with that. All eras end.

Man, I just wanted him to get one more appearance in the Super Bowl. I’m never going to get over 2014, 2020, 2021. Special teams and Bakh’s knee. Them’s the breaks, and 12 looks done.

Well as the Brewers learned, the difference between playoffs and no playoffs is beating the teams you should beat. We didn’t. We stay home. The end.

Hook and ladder. Nice

It may be over now. Rodgers looks like Favre against the Giants. I know he’s hurt, but he could also just be cooked.

Meyers has low-key struggled

The D giving up 20 isn’t horrible (the way they gave up the last two TDs was certainly disappointing). But the offense has to be better than 16 points here. This is ridiculous.

Reed and Walker should be ejected

I wish Gute had drafted WRs before our last draft so they’d actually be ready for a big situation like this.

If Barry has an exotic look to use, now would seem opportune

Can you imagine if this lions team had a qb a tier above Goff? They’d run the division for at least the next five years.

Alright, now they should feel like a hitter who just broke out of a slump. Offense should go to work now.

Haha, so they finally throw the Pi flag on the one he catches. Nice

Hey, a sneak!