monty57

Per MLB.com, Alvarez (Catcher) is the top prospect in baseball, with Baty (3B/OF) #18. Nate82's Orioles trade included Rodriguez (SP) who is #4 overall, and Holliday (SS) #13. I love the thought of getting this back, but we need to be sure to temper our expectations. If we are able to net a Top 5 overall prospect, but the other guys are a little further down the list, it'd still be a good haul. That said, I'd love either of these deals. The Orioles trade would give us a guy who could step right into the rotation and potentially be an ace in a couple years to go along with an 18-year-old who is ranked three spots behind Chourio, so it'd be cool to see those guys coming up. The Mets trade would immediately shore up our third base and catcher spots for the next six years. It would potentially have us starting five rookies on opening day next year, but they'd be a talented group of rookies. Maybe it's a pipe dream, but maybe that would allow for the Brewers to extend Woodruff out a couple of years. Here's a question for you. If it would take adding someone like Ruiz to the trade, would you do it in order to get one of the packages listed above?

Whether the value would be equal or not (I don't believe it is), the only reason the Brewers will trade Burnes or Woodruff is because they are going to be free agents soon. We will not trade them for a player that will be entering free agency the same time as Burnes/Woodruff.

I don't know if he played SS. He was a 2B, but was moved off of second because they didn't think he could play the position well. I think his ability to play 2B in the majors would be in emergency only. He's relatively new to the OF, so he still has to learn the position but has speed to believe that he could be a good defender when he has more reps. He got the call-up this year because his option is already burned, but he would be the last OF I'd bring up next year. Let him learn how to play OF by playing everyday in AAA.

Good catch. Yes, Rodriguez, not Henderson. How funny would it be to see Judge go to Baltimore (along with others) and have the Orioles win the AL East for a few years? As a fan of a small-market team, it would be nice to see Yankee fans feel the pain of watching a home-grown fan-favorite go year-to-year, turning down extension offers, and then leave in free agency to a division rival for more money. If the Orioles are ready to go that big, then I agree that they would probably be willing to overpay to get one of the best pitchers in the game to put at the top of their rotation.

Regarding the OF: It looks like a given that CF will be a rookie. I think they'll hold onto Renfroe because they'll need a proven, solid bat in the lineup and he provides that, which I guess means that the value he'll provide the Brewers next year is greater than what I think he'd get in trade. DH will probably be manned most days by one of Yelich or Renfroe, opening up plenty of playing time for the fourth OF, whether that's Taylor or one of the rookies. Any of those guys will provide better defense than either Yelich or Renfroe. There is a good chance that one of the four rookie OFs (Mitchell, Frelick, Wiemer, Ruiz) will be traded this offseason, but if not I think that two of them will start next year in AAA. This will give them everyday playing time, and keep them from accruing service time while sitting on the MLB bench. I think it is a possibility that the opening day lineup includes one of Yelich/Renfroe at DH with two OF positions manned by Mitchell and Frelick. If one or both of those guys has a good season and ends up in the top three for Rookie of the Year, then the Brewers can net themselves a draft pick, and we're able to improve the OF defense while keeping both Yelich and Renfroe's bats in the lineup. I think Taylor will still be a Brewer. He is still cheap and provides some value to the team, but probably wouldn't net a lot in trade. I'd say we open next year with Yelich, Renfroe, Mitchell, Frelick, and Taylor on the roster, and no need to sign "another McCutchen" to DH since Yelich and Renfroe will get a lot of time there. This team will be active in the offseason, so it's hard to predict things, but whatever moves the team makes this year, they will still be trying to compete in 2023.

Maybe true, but the alternative is a bigger turd. It's just that Hiura is only painted, while McCutchen has a "former MVP" pin stuck to his chest so he gets noticed. I've given up on this argument for 2022. For whatever reason, Hiura is not going to get regular PAs and McCutchen is. I'm just interested in what they're going to do next year. If Hiura isn't playing over McCutchen this year, then I can't imagine the plan for next year is to pencil him in as a regular. I doubt he'll have a lot of value, but whatever value is there, trade him and clear the roster space for someone that the team will use. I don't normally pay much attention to guys who are no longer Brewers, but it would be interesting to see him go to a team that will give him regular playing time, if only to see which side of this debate turns out to be right.

Good post. Agree on the Yelich/Rendon trade. It would be pretty much straight up, but while Yelich may not be worth his contract at least he's still a valuable major leaguer. I don't think I'd want to take the risk on Rendon with his injury history. Probably best to stick with the bad contract you know than the one you don't. Your trade idea is exactly how the Brewers should be thinking. I think they'll either target an MLB-ready starting pitcher like you suggest, or a corner IF. In your scenario, they would lose Burnes, but still have a rotation of Woodruff, Lauer, Peralta, Ashby, and either Henderson or if he isn't quite ready, they can stick someone like Houser or Alexander in the 5-spot until they bring Henderson up. Still a very strong rotation, and he can join what's looking to be a decent group of MLB ready prospects in Turang, Mitchell, Frelick, Gasser, Wiemer and Ruiz who hope to keep the team competitive for quite a while. Value-wise, they'd give up two years of Burnes for six years of Henderson (MLB ready, Top of the Rotation potential to keep the team competitive now) and six years of Holliday (only 18, but lots of potential to add to our already-talented lower minors). The Orioles would be giving up a lot of prospect value, but they'd be getting a 27-year old Cy Young winner with two years of team control and apparently the desire to sign an extension. The immediate benefit to them of having Burnes at the top of the rotation rather than potentially suffering "growing pains" with Henderson could push them to make the deal in order to take the next step to try to win a tough division. If Burnes or Woodruff hits the market, I think there will be a bidding war, so hopefully the Brewers are able to bring back a ton of talent like your proposed trade suggests.

To the first point, I wonder if Burnes' recent statements about wanting to sign an extension will make him more marketable to a big money team. If they're simply trading for a couple of years of Burnes, that's worth a lot, but if they're trading for a guy they can then extend for a long time, that's worth even more. I agree that most of the team will remain in place. I think we'll trade one of Burnes/Woodruff for a huge return, leaving us with the remaining ace along with Lauer, Peralta, Ashby and some guys fighting for the 5th spot. That's still a pretty good rotation, especially if the trade upgrades us elsewhere and/or gives us a young stud to compete for that 5th spot. I think it makes sense to let Wong walk while saving $8M. Since they've started platooning him, his numbers look better, as he's hit righties pretty well this year. I just don't know if a strong-side-of-the-platoon 2B whose defense is slipping is worth $10M. If we hold onto Wong, I think it will be because they're looking at trading either Urias or Adames. Otherwise, Urias, Turang, Adames and Brosseau should fill 2B/SS/3B. OF will be interesting, but I think they'll hold onto Renfroe. He's been a solid contributor this year, and I think they'll be hesitant to hand the keys to two rookies from opening day. Again, it'll be interesting to see which way they'll go. I think Caratini will still be around, but they'll sign a one-year veteran to share time with him. So, many of the same players, but one of Burnes/Woodruff traded, Wong's option not exercised, possible trade of Renfroe, and Narvaez, Peterson, Rogers, and McCutchen leaving as free agents.

Fingers crossed for Topa. Been a long road through his injuries, so I'm ready for him to be able to help out the MLB bullpen. Good to see Brosseau back, as he's had a good season for the Brewers and really helps out in the "vs LHP" lineups. Sending Ruiz down makes sense. I believe he's already used his option, he got another taste of the majors, and can now get some full-time play in Nashville.

Fingers crossed for Topa. Been a long road through his injuries, so I'm ready for him to be able to help out the MLB bullpen. Good to see Brosseau back, as he's had a good season for the Brewers and really helps out in the "vs LHP" lineups. Sending Ruiz down makes sense. I believe he's already used his option, he got another taste of the majors, and can now get some full-time play in Nashville.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/11/brewers-to-non-tender-chris-carter.html They let him go because he was projected to receive over $8M in arby. He ended up signing with the Yankees for $3M, but that was after the Brewers non-tendered him, so he was a free agent, not an arby guy. But your point still stands. Tellez is having an okay year, but for a first baseman those offensive numbers will only play while he's inexpensive. He's got a wRC+ of 113, which is great for some positions, but not 1B. He's compiled 0.7 Fangraphs WAR, which isn't all that great. He is in his first year of arby at $1.9M. Being an everyday 1B, he's going to see an arby raise, so the Brewers will have a decision to make on him. I expect him to be back, but he could be used in trade. I doubt they non-tender him. Maybe after next year if they think he'll be too expensive going into his third arby season, but I think they'd be willing to pay the (my uneducated estimate) $4-5M or so he could get in arby next year.

I like Urias, and wish the best for him. I think he's trying to hit a homer on every pitch, and that's not really his game. I think he'd be a lot better if he remembers that he should be a bat-to-ball guy. In my opinion, the extra handful of home runs he hits with his current approach aren't worth the drop in OBP. Unfortunately in today's baseball, players know that swinging for the fences is how they get a big paycheck, so I doubt he changes unless he continues to lose playing time. Looking at recent draft picks and the free agent signings of Wong and Cain, I think that Brewer management likes guys who make contact and play good defense, so I think that over the next few years we'll see a shift from the current "all or nothing" approach our lineup takes to more contact/OBP guys. If Urias doesn't adapt, I think he'll be moved for a guy who will. As to Hiura, there is definitely a lot of risk. I think that if they are in a bit of a payroll crunch, they could find a better way to spend money than to bring in another DH-only vet. If they do rely on Hiura and he doesn't pan out, then they have a "fall back" of bringing up some OF prospects and shuffling the DH between Yelich, Renfroe, Mitchell, Ruiz, Frelick, and Wiemer. But, if he does pan out and gets everyday playing time, they could have a real weapon in Hiura now that the DH is part of NL baseball.

For reference, using wRC+. Number in parenthesis is the total Fangraphs WAR for the season, only done to show that Mitchell has already provided almost as much WAR as McCutchen ? Adames (3.5): vs RHP 115, vs LHP 94 Yelich (2.2): 122, 95 Peterson (2.0): 106, 136 Renfroe (1.9): 126, 130 Wong (1.6): 132, 32 Hiura (1.3): 201, 64 Caratini (1.3): 79, 102 Narvaez (1.1): 86, 89 Urias (1.1): 99, 95 Tellez (1.0): 124, 101 Taylor (0.9): 94, 78 Davis (0.5): 61, 125 Brosseau (0.4): 103, 122 McCutchen (0.2): 95, 104 Severino (0.1): 101, 91 Mitchell (0.1): 199, 187 If I had to pencil in a "vs LHP" lineup (without Brosseau because he's hurt), I'd probably go: Yelich (LF), McCutchen (DH), Renfroe (RF), Tellez (1B), Adames (SS), Peterson (2B), Caratini (C), Urias (3B), Mitchell (CF). When Brosseau is healthy, I'd go: Yelich, Brosseau, Renfroe, Tellez, McCutchen, Adames, Peterson, Caratini, Mitchell It's not overly pretty. Brosseau and McCutchen were brought in this past offseason to help the team vs lefties, and for the most part they have done that. Unfortunately, much of the rest of the roster has done pretty poorly against them. I'd definitely make sure that Renfroe, Tellez, McCutchen and Brosseau (when healthy) are near the top of the order. I just kept Yelich in there because he seemed to settle into the leadoff spot and I'd hate to have something go haywire if he were dropped in the order vs lefties. Adames probably shouldn't be #2 against righties, and he definitely shouldn't be there vs lefties. He profiles much better as a 5/6 guy than a #2 guy.

Brewer management has made it abundantly clear that they want to remain "continually competitive." That means that they will not go "all in" or "tank," they're going to rely on their prospects to perform at the MLB level, and they won't let superstar players walk in free agency. It has also come to light that attendance is way down across the league this year. I think the Brewers were overbudget this year, so I wouldn't be surprised to see the opening day payroll drop from the roughly $132M is was to start this year. The big question then becomes when they will trade away Burnes, Woodruff, Lauer, and Adames (Houser has kind of pitched himself out of this discussion). I believe that they will trade away one of the "big 2" this offseason, with a focus on bringing back players who are in the upper minors or already have a taste of the big leagues. That would still leave them with a strong rotation anchored by Burnes or Woodruff as the ace, along with Peralta, Lauer and Ashby and the fifth starter up for grabs among Houser and the MLB-ready prospects or someone who is brought back in the Burnes/Woodruff trade. Mitchell is up and has looked very good in his brief time here. I think it's a given that CF will be manned by a rookie next year, and they will have to give a lot of thought to trading Renfroe. He's had a good season, and we'd get something in return, but he will be entering his final year and make somewhere in the $10-11M range, so a trade could make sense. An outfield of Yelich, Mitchell, Frelick/Wiemer/Ruiz could be a real strength. If I had to guess, I'd say that Wong's option will not be exercised, but I think management likes the way he plays and is trying to get more players like him, so there is a possibility he'll be retained. If he is, I think the best move for the team would be to put Turang ay SS an move Adames to 3B, but I doubt Adames would go along with that. More likely, I think the infield will be Tellez and some combo of Adames, Urias, Turang, and Brosseau with another utility guy from somewhere. I do think that they're tiring of Urias' approach, and with the potential money saved from guys like Burnes/Woodruff, Renfroe and Wong, they could make a play for a third baseman. Hiura has done enough to be penciled in as the normal DH, along with getting some reps at 1B and maybe a little 2B and LF. Brosseau or one of the OF could spell him when a lefty is on the mound. This could save them from having to sign another veteran FA for the role. I think they'll retain Caratini for his final arby year, but will find a veteran FA catcher (someone like Barnhardt, Castro, Sanchez, Vasquez) on a 1-2 year deal, with Feliciano as "insurance" at AAA. Trying to guess what will happen this offseason is a fool's errand, as anything could happen, but it's kind of fun to ponder. I think that people who hated the Hader trade will hate this offseason. We'll probably trade some good players for young guys people haven't heard of, we probably won't spend a lot of money, and we could have three rookies in the opening day day lineup and maybe one in the starting rotation, and that's not including who could come over in trade.

Good. It took them until mid-August to finally start to do what even the least "stat-centric" fan was calling for. It has been pretty obvious all season that Hiura should be played against RHP, and it has been obvious for a few years that McCutchen shouldn't be played regularly against RHP. Hiura has been so much better vs RHP than McCutchen, that had they started playing Hiura over McCutchen a couple of months ago, we would probably be ahead of the Padres right now instead of trying to catch them. I'm generally on board with what the Brewers do. Change that, they're usually way ahead of me so I rarely question what they're doing. That's why I'm so baffled by this. It has been really, really obvious that Hiura should play vs RHP and as we sit here on August 30 with 127 games under our belts, Hiura has only had 104 PAs against RHP this season (with a 201 wRC+ in those appearances). For reference, Aaron Judge has a 199 wRC+ vs RHP. Paul Goldschmidt is at 171. They are probably going to be the AL and NL MVPs. Let the man play.

Since 2016 (Narvaez's rookie season), Omar has 9.0 WAR and d'Arnoud has 9.1. From '20-'22, Narvaez has 4.4 WAR and d'Arnoud has 5.1. d'Arnoud is having a good (2.9 Fangraphs WAR) season after a disappointing (0.6 WAR) season last year. I would rather just pay Narvaez to come back or sign a different veteran FA rather than giving up prospects to trade for d'Arnoud while having to pay his salary. Looking at his history, I doubt d'Arnoud carries this year's success into future seasons, but anyone trading for him would be "buying high" on this year's success. If we are to trade for a catcher, I think Stearns will look for a young player with lots of service time left. It would probably make sense to give up a good prospect in a position of depth for a young player in a position of need.

Since 2016 (Narvaez's rookie season), Omar has 9.0 WAR and d'Arnoud has 9.1. From '20-'22, Narvaez has 4.4 WAR and d'Arnoud has 5.1. d'Arnoud is having a good (2.9 Fangraphs WAR) season after a disappointing (0.6 WAR) season last year. I would rather just pay Narvaez to come back or sign a different veteran FA rather than giving up prospects to trade for d'Arnoud while having to pay his salary. Looking at his history, I doubt d'Arnoud carries this year's success into future seasons, but anyone trading for him would be "buying high" on this year's success. If we are to trade for a catcher, I think Stearns will look for a young player with lots of service time left. It would probably make sense to give up a good prospect in a position of depth for a young player in a position of need.

So, McCutchen is now at .244 / .313 / .391 / .704, for a Fangraphs WAR of 0.2 and a wRC+ of 97, primarily at DH which should be a position in which you put a guy that is a better-than-average hitter. He is basically replacement level, and he's the main reason that Hiura only has 191 plate appearances on the season. Oh well, at least they finally took McCutchen out of the 3 hole in the lineup, as he was hitting 6th in yesterday's game. We regularly put Adames' sub-.300 OBP in the two hole and McCutchen's replacement level bat in the 3 hole with out best "vs RHP" bat sitting on the bench and wonder why we have a hard time scoring runs on a regular basis... go figure. That's enough negativity from me. We're on a three-game winning streak and closing in on the final Wild Card spot. Go Brewers!

Obviously, nothing's going to be done between now and the end of the year. Narvaez and Caratini are healthy, so we just hope they get hot. After the season, Narvaez is a free agent. Caratini has one year of arbitration remaining, and has a salary of $2,000,000 this year in his second year of arby. They also held onto Pedro Severino after he was DFA'd August 3. You don't generally solve your offensive woes by picking up a big-hitting catcher in the offseason, because there just aren't too many big-hitting catchers around. The exception this year will be Wilson Contreras, but my guess is that he will get a deal bigger than the Brewers will be able to offer. Mike Zunino and Omar Narvaez are pretty much the next best guys out there. The Brewers will need to decide if Caratini has done enough to merit paying him probably around $4M or so next year. I think they will, so then they'll need to decide if that should be as a starter or as a back-up. With your astute observation of his late-season problems, he may be better served in the back-up role, as too much PT seems to tire him out as the season drags on. They also need to decide if they think Feliciano is ready. He was forced onto the MLB roster this season, but I don't think the Brewers are ready to hand him the reigns. Barring a trade (always an option), I think they'll either go with the Caratini/Severino combo next year, or (probably more likely) they will find a veteran FA on a 1-2 year deal with Feliciano as insurance in Nashville. There are quite a few veteran FA's out there who are over 30 and would probably be happy to sign on as a starter. These are guys like Tucker Barnhardt, Christian Vazquez, Jason Castro, Gary Sanchez, Curt Casali, or even bringing Narvaez back. None of the options will excite the masses, but any big offensive upgrade is probably going to have to come from elsewhere. We hope that Feliciano takes the next step to become an everyday MLB catcher, but my guess is they're looking at getting him some more "seasoning" in Nashville next year, and taking Caratini's spot when he leaves for free agency after next year. Longer-term, we hope that Jeferson Quero (#7 Brewers prospect on MLB.com) continues to advance through the system and impress. He's only 19 and just got promoted to A+ this year, so you're looking several years out for him to help at the MLB level.

Obviously, nothing's going to be done between now and the end of the year. Narvaez and Caratini are healthy, so we just hope they get hot. After the season, Narvaez is a free agent. Caratini has one year of arbitration remaining, and has a salary of $2,000,000 this year in his second year of arby. They also held onto Pedro Severino after he was DFA'd August 3. You don't generally solve your offensive woes by picking up a big-hitting catcher in the offseason, because there just aren't too many big-hitting catchers around. The exception this year will be Wilson Contreras, but my guess is that he will get a deal bigger than the Brewers will be able to offer. Mike Zunino and Omar Narvaez are pretty much the next best guys out there. The Brewers will need to decide if Caratini has done enough to merit paying him probably around $4M or so next year. I think they will, so then they'll need to decide if that should be as a starter or as a back-up. With your astute observation of his late-season problems, he may be better served in the back-up role, as too much PT seems to tire him out as the season drags on. They also need to decide if they think Feliciano is ready. He was forced onto the MLB roster this season, but I don't think the Brewers are ready to hand him the reigns. Barring a trade (always an option), I think they'll either go with the Caratini/Severino combo next year, or (probably more likely) they will find a veteran FA on a 1-2 year deal with Feliciano as insurance in Nashville. There are quite a few veteran FA's out there who are over 30 and would probably be happy to sign on as a starter. These are guys like Tucker Barnhardt, Christian Vazquez, Jason Castro, Gary Sanchez, Curt Casali, or even bringing Narvaez back. None of the options will excite the masses, but any big offensive upgrade is probably going to have to come from elsewhere. We hope that Feliciano takes the next step to become an everyday MLB catcher, but my guess is they're looking at getting him some more "seasoning" in Nashville next year, and taking Caratini's spot when he leaves for free agency after next year. Longer-term, we hope that Jeferson Quero (#7 Brewers prospect on MLB.com) continues to advance through the system and impress. He's only 19 and just got promoted to A+ this year, so you're looking several years out for him to help at the MLB level.

Thanks for sharing this. I've enjoyed watching Hiura this year, but now I'm looking for this. Last night against the Dodgers, it was spot on. As soon as a ball was thrown low in the zone, it ended up in the bleachers.

Other than "who gets a bigger paycheck," Hiura has beaten McCutchen in pretty much any way someone could look at it... except for hitting vs LHP, which is the primary time Hiura has been used. Thankfully, he's starting to look a little better in that regard as well. I don't know who made the call (Counsell, Attanasio, or Stearns), but it seems obvious that when McCutcheon was signed, he was cemented into the middle of the order every day. I get why he was signed, I think that Hiura surprised everyone by actually hitting this year, and that has caused the stir.

But he could just sit McCutchen, because Hiura has been better than McCutchen. McCutchen (DH) + Taylor/Davis probably is > Hiura (DH) + McCutchen (CF), but Hiura (DH) + Taylor/Davis (CF) probably is > McCutchen (DH) + Taylor/Davis (CF) It's the belief that McCutchen must play that is clouding things up. I think that cementing McCutchen into the 3/4 spot in the lineup has hurt the team this season.

Yes, I was referring to what he’s doing in the minors. The MLB team still has a lot of “all or nothing” in it, but it appears that they’ll gradually be replaced over the next few seasons with some OBP/contact guys.

Yes, I was referring to what he’s doing in the minors. The MLB team still has a lot of “all or nothing” in it, but it appears that they’ll gradually be replaced over the next few seasons with some OBP/contact guys.