monty57

Yeah, that'd be hard to argue against. Can they retro-active this one, maybe say he felt dizzy? There's not an ideal situation right now, but they may have to 15-day DL someone. Between Ramirez, Braun and Segura, all things being equal, the easy option is Segura, as the dropoff from him to Bianchi is less than the dropoff for the other two to their replacements. That would allow us to bring up Rogers or Gindl (both on the 40-man) to start in RF, freeing up Herrera for the "go anywhere" utility role. 1B Overbay/Lucroy 2B Gennett/Weeks SS Bianchi 3B Reynolds LF Davis CF Gomez RF Gindl or Rogers C Lucroy/Maldonado Certainly not ideal, but hopefully it's only for a few days before Braun and Ramirez are able to get back out there. Question about last night: Didn't Roenicke pinch hit with Overbay, then put Maldonado at 1B at the bottom of the inning when Ramirez was hurt? Couldn't he have just kept Overbay in at 1B?

ou realize he's not playing in the minors and his career average in 400 ABs is .219 right? It's actually 352 ABs spread out over four seasons. Most came last year, when he hit .211/.279/.322/.601 in 298 ABs. So I guess the question is whether you trust a partial season in the majors over his .294/.354/.430/.784 line in 1,567 minor league ABs. I think he's a good option as a backup OF. The problem is that I'd like to have another OF on the roster who is a better hitter, but since we're hamstrung on the roster by holding two guys who only play 2B and two guys who only play 1B, we couldn't hold a 5th OF. In that scenario, we needed to keep someone who could play CF, so Schafer got the nod over Gindl. It's a good thing to have capable defensive players on the bench. The question is if/when we will decide to name an everyday 1B and/or 2B and open up a bench spot or two for more versatile players. I do like Herrera's versatility (realizing that over a much bigger MLB career than Schafer, he's been a .648 OPS guy), and I think that once Schafer's back and Gomez has served his suspension, there is a chance that the Brewers decide to keep him and send Weeks walking. However, his .154/.154/.154/.308 line so far (in only 13 ABs) isn't screaming for more PT. All that said, I think that if we had "a hitter" in the system, he would probably be on the MLB roster right now. This is (and has been) my biggest concern for this season. If we have any significant injuries, we're sunk because we have no depth anywhere except SP, and one of those two SP is in the MLB bullpen right now. If Ramirez goes down, he's replaced by Bianchi/Herrera (that's about a .200-.300 point drop in OPS). If Gomez or Braun goes down, he's replaced by Schafer (another .200-.300 point drop in OPS). If Lucroy goes down, he's replaced by Maldonado without another catcher on the 40-man. We couldn't survive any significant injuries to any of these guys for long.

GM's are usually hesitant to make a move that could completely blow up in their face. I get your point that trading one of our SP mid-season would bring the highest return and could help the future (something I've been pining for for a long time), there's too much chance that his replacement (Nelson/Thornburg) pitches poorly or that another SP gets injured and we wouldn't have a replacement. That would get fans in an uproar, and Attanasio/Melvin won't risk it. I see a nice opportunity to trade one, and maybe (but not likely) even two of Gallardo/Lohse/Estrada next offseason. They should all have some trade value at that time, and it will allow for Thornburg and/or Nelson to step into the rotation while retaining four experienced starting pitchers in the rotation. Like the Aoki trade this past offseason, this would be a "safe" route to take.

All I was saying is that teams have ups and downs. Players have hot streaks and cold streaks. Pretty much every pitcher who has donned a Brewer jersey this season has been unbelievably hot. That will change, and when it does, we will have cold streaks. At the end of the year, the hot and cold streaks will even out to the overall talent level of the team, mixed in with some degree of "luck" (staying injury free, winning an inordinate amount of one-run games, getting more "clutch" plays than your opponents, etc). The only things that have really changed for me are that: (1) Neither Ramirez nor Lohse is showing signs of age regression. Hopefully this will last through the grueling 162-game schedule, as they are key factors to our success. (2) Gallardo is pitching well, making last year seem like it could have been a WBC-induced fluke. (3) The odds of trading for a mid-season player have gone up, while the odds of trading away a player have gone down. (4) We haven't seen any real injuries, and every injury-free day that goes by is a good thing. Those are important factors, but other than that, I believe that at the end of the year, players will end up somewhere around their "expected" level of performance. Since we have more players playing above their "expected" level than we have playing below their "expected" level, then that means we'll slow down a bit. How much, I don't know... this isn't math or science, it's baseball. I also just wanted to warn that hot starts seem to have the effect of getting some people (like my aforementioned friend) so assured of playoffs that when the team doesn't make the playoffs, they take it very hard, which can't be healthy. Just enjoy the team while it's "sunny" and understand that there will be some "rain." Hopefully the hot play lasts at least through the weekend, as I really want to see the Brewers sweep the Cubs :-)

The Mariners are falling apart quickly and likely should sell in July if not earlier. Maybe the Brewers will be able to get Jack Z back to head up their scouting department once the Mariners let him go. I can't imagine he has a long leash after getting time to rebuild and a blank check this offseason to sign free agents.

I have an accountant friend who used the "if they only play .500 ball" logic back in what was is 2006 or '07 when they started out really hot. I kept telling him that teams have hot and cold streaks. I figured they were around a .500 team, and a hot start doesn't change that... it really only makes it more likely that they'll trade for a player mid-season rather than trading away players. Because he started thinking playoffs early in the season, he got really mad when the team played under .500 ball the rest of the way and missed the playoffs. I feel the same about this year's team. I felt before the season that if everyone stays healthy and some things fall their way, they could fight for a Wild Card spot. I still feel the same way. They will have some losing streaks that will even out this hot start, and at the end of the year if they continue to stay healthy and the very young and very old players don't wear down as the season progresses, they will probably be in the Wild Card race. The one outlier is whether this hot start means they will trade away some of their few decent prospects for a rental player. I guess I'm just saying to enjoy the team and the success they're having, but don't get too high on the good times, as it can lead to frustration (borderline depression) when they have their inevitable cold streaks.

It would also eliminate a lot of batters charging the mound since they'd know that most of their teammates wouldn't be able to help them out. Yeah, the 11-on-1 beatdown wouldn't be too much fun to watch.

2) I don't think the suspension had a thing to do with the bat flip. Cole barked and walked away. Gomez didn't. I would guess that if half the Brewer bench charged Cole, he would've at least tried to defend himself. Not trying to defend Gomez's actions, but no fight would have broken out if the Pirates' players had stayed on the bench. Gomez wasn't charging Cole, he was yelling at him. Without players rushing the field, Gomez would have chirped a bit, and gone back to third.

Again, my point isn't to say that Estrada isn't a very nice pitcher for us, but I absolutely believe if ANYONE suggested that the Brewers take Jimmy Nelson, a young power pitcher who can throw in the mid to upper 90's, gets GB's, and whom we control for 6 years, and were offered an 31 year old pitcher who's NEVER proven he can be an effective big league starter from April to September, I think the entire board would scoff at such a suggestion. Interesting point. If the Brewers are still three games up in the division mid-to-late July and someone like Lohse or Garza goes down for the season, would the Brewers be more likely to replace him with Nelson, or trade Nelson for a veteran replacement? I agree that Estrada doesn't have huge trade value, but he will have his best value if he remains a starting pitcher this season, puts up good numbers (and doesn't get hurt) and is traded this offseason. I believe that if Attanasio has the choice of trading one of Gallardo, Lohse or Estrada, he will choose to trade the least known and least valuable of the three. So, I hope Estrada is able to pitch well this season, helping the 2014 team, and bring back something of value this offseason making room for one of the higher upside young guys.

I'd guess there are a lot of players on the team who are glad he stood up for Gomez and some of his higher compensated teammates are probably kicking in a few bucks to ease the pain of the salary he's losing. This isn't hockey. I don't watch baseball to see brawls, but I hated it under Macha when other teams constantly beaned our hitters and we did nothing about it. People are talking about how Gomez's reputation is going to precede him in everything he does. If that's true, and other teams feel they can do or say whatever they want to Gomez just to "get under his skin," then I think it's good they know that if they go too far they could lose some teeth over it.

Platooning Green with Reynolds means that Green gets around 80% of the starts. Reynolds career consists of 3474 ABs, and he's got a career .793 OPS. His 2014 OPS is currently .808. An .800 OPS player is pretty good. Yes, he had a couple of down years in Baltimore, but there is a distinct possibility that he can be an .800+ OPS player as an everyday 1B. I've always cheered on Green, but he hasn't done anything to deserve taking 80% of the PAs away from a guy who's sporting an .808 OPS (even in a small sample). If Reynolds starts looking bad, which is certainly possible, than they should explore every option, but let's not just assume he's going to suck when he's actually looking decent and has an MLB track record showing that he can be a good player. I have no problem replacing Overbay, and Green could be a good replacement, but his job should be spot starts at 1B/3B when the starters need a rest.

Reynolds is playing as well as could be expected. He's a low BA, high power guy, and that's exactly what he's providing. I don't see a huge need to replace him. He's got a .231 avg / .310 OBP / .558 SLG / .868 OPS at the moment, and it's very possible that he finishes the year with a similar line. Yes, he'll strike out a lot, but he could very well be a good pick-up by Melvin. Overbay is useless, but Reynolds does not need to be replaced. I don't like him as the backup 3B (especially since that means Overbay as everyday 1B), but that's another issue. The Weeks/Gennett situation goes beyond what's going on at the plate. When Roenicke pinch hits Weeks for Gennett late in games, he then replaces Weeks defensively with Bianchi. Due to the terrible defense Weeks is playing these days, I'm fine with playing Gennett or Bianchi against lefties. However, as I've said elsewhere there isn't really any position player at AAA that is a top prospect, so Weeks keeps his spot by default. I don't think the Brewers want to give up on "the former #2 overall pick and All-Star" for a guy casual fans have heard of. SS is Segura's spot to sink or swim, as we don't have anyone else with his upside. Even if he hits poorly all year, he'll probably be the favorite for the job next year. I do agree that he should be moved down in the order. I'd like to see Gindl up to get some starts at LF, and Roenicke already gave some LF starts to Schafer. Davis will hit better than he has, but he (like Gennett) isn't a star player. He provides value as a decent inexpensive player and deserves to be a MLB player. He will hit better than he's hit so far, but people had way too high an expectation for him based on his play last year. So the only moves that should be made are moves that should've been made prior to the season starting. Weeks and Overbay should be replaced as soon as a better option can be found. If Herrera plays well, he may stay on the roster at the expense of one of these two. Green and Gindl are other possibilities. I do give kudos for Roenicke's handling of personnel this year. On opening day, he replaced his closer because he wasn't pitching well. Most managers would've let Henderson blow a few saves first. He gave Overbay about one start before putting Reynolds out there nearly every day. He started Schafer a few games in LF to give the struggling Davis some time. He wanted to get Wang (who had never pitched above A ball and missed last season) out there in as low a pressure situation as possible. He's got an inflexible roster, and he's managing it pretty well.

It will be interesting to see how the Brewers play this. This hot start makes it very unlikely that they will trade away anyone this year, so they will be sitting next offseason with one year remaining on Lohse, Gallardo and Estrada, with Thornburg and Nelson presumably ready for the rotation. They really need to get at least one of Thornburg/Nelson into the rotation next year, since they don't want to risk losing 3/5 of their starting rotation after the 2015 season. I don't see the Brewers trading away two veterans to make room for two young arms, so barring injury it seems very likely that they would trade away one of Gallardo, Estrada or Lohse. That would send them into next year with Garza, Peralta, the surviving two of Gallardo/Lohse/Estrada and either Thornburg or Nelson. Looking at that, I don't see anyone getting extended so the real question is "who makes the most sense to trade next offseason?" Again barring inury, and assuming they all have "normal" years, Estrada would have the least trade value. That would set up the question "do we trade the least valuable to keep the best chance of winning in 2015 (meaning the best two would be lost "for nothing" to free agency), or do we trade a more valuable player to get better return to help future Brewer teams?" I'd bet the Brewers will look to maximize the 2015 MLB roster so they'll trade Estrada and probably lose Gallardo and Lohse to free agency. Taking that a step further, they will look to get "MLB ready" talent for Estrada, so they will end up getting return value somewhere around what we got for Aoki.

I don't see them trading for him and moving Ramirez to first. However, if Ramirez had a bad injury, Headley could be a target, and if Ramirez's option is not exercised Headley could be on Melvin/Attanasio's free agent target list next offseason.

What exactly do they have? The guy who OPS'd .640 in 2012, the guy who OPS'd .849 in the first half of 2013, the guy who OPS'd .583 in the second half of 2013, or the guy with a .565 OPS so far this year? I'd like to sign him based on his potential, and the fact that we don't have any other options, but it has to be done at the right price. I think Melvin is pretty good at this, which is why some guys have turned down his offer... he wouldn't come up to their level, and I'm happy for it. The pre-arby extensions he has signed have generally been good for the team. It's the arby extensions and free agent signings that have been hit-or-miss. Right now I'd say an extension is unlikely, but from what seems to be happening I'm fairly confident that if Segura is extended it will be to a contract that is good for the Brewers, and that will not hurt them too badly if Segura does end up being a .650 OPS MLB hitter.

They've done it multiple times in the past (I guess that happens when you often sign older players to multi-year deals). I don't think Melvin/Attanasio will hesitate to cut Weeks when and if a better option emerges. It could be argued that some of the AAA utility infielders are better options, but it's not cut and dried. Part of it is probably the fact that, unlike the Hall / Suppan / Wolf situations, Weeks can be hidden as the small side of a platoon where he really doesn't hurt the team that much, and his failings can be brushed off as "it's tough to hit when you don't get much playing time." I have little doubt that the Brewers would dump Weeks immediately if either they got some team to trade him for anything, even salary relief, or they had someone in AAA who was a no-doubt improvement. But could you imagine the vitriol if Weeks gets dumped and some no-name comes up from AAA and stinks? Until (and if) one of those things happen, Weeks will probably continue on in the small role he's given.

Not that it can't be done, but it's not common to see prospect-for-prospect trades, and I really don't see someone trading one good prospect for a bunch of our so-so guys. I think it's more likely that Thornburg/Nelson prove themselves enough this season that it allows the Brewers to trade one (maybe two) of Gallardo, Estrada or Lohse next offseason. Assuming health, any of those guys should be able to bring back some young talent. Beyond Thornburg and Nelson, the rest of the young arms should be very helpful in the bullpen in future years. Getting production at league minimum salary is important, and an inexpensive bullpen allows us to spend money elsewhere.

We're getting to the point where we are going to have to trade away someone in order to make room for Thornburg, Nelson and any of the other youngsters that step it up this season. I think the likely scenario (mind you, it's pretty early so a lot can happen) is that one of Lohse, Gallardo or Estrada will be traded next offseason and Thornburg or Nelson will take their spot, with the other in the bullpen. Then we'll see how next season goes to see whether we trade the others mid-season, or lose them to free agency/make a qualifying offer. I'd rather look into extending Peralta than any of the older, more expensive guys. Ideally, Gallardo would have a great season this year, and he could be the one traded for some prospects who can take over for Lohse when he walks via free agency. Then someone else can extend him through his 30's. Note: this is assuming we aren't out of it at trade deadline this year (which is already looking unlikely), and that we don't trade Nelson in order to upgrade this year's team.

I do not think Weeks has any trade value, even if we eat all of his salary, so I'll just ask the same thing I said during Spring Training. Do we have another option that would be valuable enough to make the team dump Weeks? Other than pitching, we don't really have much talent at Nashville, so we don't really have anyone pushing Weeks off the roster. One scenario I see that would cause the team to dump Weeks is if Braun's thumb injury makes him sit often, then we'd need another OF, so Gindl becomes more valuable to the roster. Another scenario would be if Taylor Green continues to play well for a month or two, they could bring him up, but he'd probably replace Overbay before he'd replace Weeks. I said above that it's time to cut ties with Weeks, but until a good replacement option emerges, I think he'll be a Brewer.

Kudos to Roenicke for quickly realizing that Overbay and Weeks should not get much playing time. I just wish Melvin would have figured that out a month or so ago. I think he was trying to get some trade value built up for Weeks so he could flip him, but that concept has completely flopped, so it's time to just cut ties.

May I ask why? Starters are more valuable than relievers, wouldn't we want our best pitchers pitching as many innings as possible? Based on WAR, the most valuable relievers last year (Uehara @ 3.6 and Kimbrel @ 3.3) were the #30 and #37 highest WAR among pitchers, making them about as valuable as guys like Shelby Miller and Kyle Lohse. That's the "aces" of relievers. Most relievers, even good ones, sit in the 0.5 to 1.5 WAR range. Henderson and Balfour were 1.4 WAR with their good seasons last year, putting them around as valuable as a Carlos Villenueva or Wade Miley. So, by that metric, if he is lights-out all season in the bullpen, he could be about as valuable as if he were to be the #5 starter with a 4-ish ERA. But, I think we need to look at things on relative terms. If he weren't on the MLB roster, then someone else would be, and that someone would probably be Wooten, who in 27 appearances last year had a 3.90 ERA with around a 2:1 K:BB ratio. Sure, Thornburg is pitching well right now and it's easy to get caught up in the belief that he's bulletproof, but like most players, he'll have some ups-and-downs. I'd guess that over the course of a season, Thornburg and Wooten would be pretty equal value-wise out of the pen. Since we have a good alternative sitting in AAA, and Thornburg would have to be dominant out of the pen to be as valuable as he'd be simply being okay in the rotation, why not go with Wooten and keep Thornburg at AAA, where he remains stretched out and in the routine of starting, doesn't burn service time, and isn't at risk of being pitched so much his arm falls off?

I wanted him in the rotation, and thought he was good enough that we didn't need to spend on Garza, so I've been fairly high on him. However, once Garza was signed, I wanted Thornburg starting in AAA for two reasons: 1) To keep him stretched out as a starter. We will need more than five starting pitchers this year, so I wanted Thronburg to be able to step in when someone goes down. As it now stands, he will probably still get the call, but that will mean that he will be unavailable from the pen prior to the start (possibly keeping the pen short-handed) and he will only go 2-3 innings in his start, draining the pen when he starts. He won't be fully stretched out for a few starts, and that will be hard on the bullpen. 2) I figured with the number of lefties in the pen, one (Wang) who will never be used, Thronburg would be overused. Before the season, I guessed that if he stayed in the pen all season he would get around 81 appearances, some for multiple innings. That could be really tough on a promising young arm. If he continues to pitch well, and if the Brewers keep winning, I have little doubt that Roenicke will put the Brewers' winning in 2014 over Thornburg's future health, and will put him out there every chance he gets.

There's just nothing that can be done about it until the end of the current CBA. They can renegotiate, and it's a big enough issue that they probably will. It will just "cost" the union something big in order to get the language changed. So how about the question about what if Morales is signed after the draft? Do you then owe a 2015 pick? or none at all? I believe that after a certain date (some time in June), the draft pick compensation goes away, at least for the team signing the player. Not sure if the team that lost him still gets their comp pick. Or Doug slyly gets Ike. I think the Mets really want to get rid of him, and have "named" Duda their starter. Duda and Davis have both started out okay, and I'm sure the NY media is going to have a field day blasting the Mets every time the guy who is starting goes 0-for-4. It's a headache they'll want to get rid of soon. I would be surprised if he isn't traded shortly, and the Brewers have to be one of the top names on the list. Melvin probably has a standing offer to the Mets for someone like Hellweg, and he's waiting to see if the Mets will bite.

So, what's the over/under on how long it takes the Brewers to just go with Reynolds and stop using Overbay as part of a "platoon?" I think Reynolds is clearly the better player, but I think it'll be the end of this month before the Brewers name him the everyday guy.

That would be more interesting. I think that would take us to 28.8. I think that would also take us to 28.8. Both would take us to 29.2. I think. I did it quickly so I may have made some mistakes. In the second case, you would be replacing a 36 year old with a 23 year old, so the number should go down. But either way, it shows how much the number can change by taking one person with limited ability and replacing them with a similarly "talented" person who is older or younger.